Is Anyone Listening?
June 20th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Albert Pujols is down with an injury and likely to miss 4-6 weeks IF he heals on schedule and IF the Cardinals are being honest about his injury (they’ve grown increasingly less trustworthy in their reporting of injuries). The Cardinals are hosed, Pujols could have cost himself money on the market (I doubt that), and his fantasy owners are totally jammed up. Sad situation all around. Glad I didn’t just swing a huge deal to add Pujols in the Sirius/XM Experts League two weeks ago. Whoops, I did.
Did you give up on Mark Reynolds despite my telling you not to? Reynolds has been hot in June hitting .300 with six homers and 12 RBIs while he’s racked up an ultra impressive 1.155 OPS. Yes he’s still hitting just .217, but his recent run of offensive production has pushed his pace up to 30 homers, 85 RBI and 83 runs scored. Care to guess what his average numbers where the last three years? How about 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs. Pretty darn close wouldn’t you say?
Did you give up on Brandon League during what could have been the worst run of pitching by any reliever in baseball history (from May 8th to May 13th he appeared in four games picking up four loses and three blown saves while allowing 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings)? League hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 13th to drop his ERA back down to 3.90. His WHIP currently sits at 1.07, and if you remove that one week of pitching he would be 20-for-20 in save conversions and his ERA would be 0.99.
The date was October 28th, 2010. That day I penned an article titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought. In that piece I suggested four names who could return a significant profit in 2011 because their apparently poor work in 2010 would lead to them being undervalued on draft day. Here are the four names that I discussed with a little diddy on how each is currently performing.
Scott Baker (5-4, 3.24 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.17 WHIP in 91.2 IP)
He’s allowed one run over his last two starts, has won each of his last three outings to improve to 5-4, and his ratios this season are outstanding. Baker also has a career best 8.64 K/9 mark and has been everything I hoped he would bee when I commented on how valuable he could be eight months ago. Did you listen? Judging by how many queries I received about Baker the past two weeks I’m gonna have to say very few did.
James Shields (7-4, 2.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 1.00 HWIP in 112.2 IP)
Shields is third in the AL in ERA and 6th in WHIP, and he’s also fourth in the league in innings pitched while his five complete games and three shutouts are the most in baseball. You remember back in March when he was listed 24th amongst starting pitchers in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers? Do you remember how you sent me emails and tweets about how stupid I was?
Chris Narveson (4-4, 4.48 ERA, 70 Ks, 1.39 WHIP over 78.1 IP)
I’m not going to admit total failure here, but he’s not been as good as I hoped. Still, he does have his use as his K/9 rate of 8.04 is solid while his 1.48 GB/FB ratio is encouraging. Hell, what are you complaining about since you drafted Narveson in the 27th round in your mixed league.
A.J. Burnett (7-5, 4.05 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.22 WHIP in 93.1 IP)
Direct hit yet again. Burnett is on pace to better his numbers from last season, some substantially. After all he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2010. Did you take a chance on him late in drafts cause of my recommendation or simply because he pitches for the Yankees? It’s a concern that his K/9 rate is just 7.33, that’s nearly a full batter below his career rate, but at least it’s better than the 6.99 mark he posted last season.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: A.J. Burnett, Albert Pujols, Brandon League, Chris Narveson, Mark Reynolds, Scott Baker, Scott Shields
By Jackson on Jun 20, 2011
Ray… for tuesday… I have Scherzer and Billingsly playing each other at chavez ravine. I know Billingsly has been bad but he seems to pitch better at home. Do I start both or just scherzer?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Jackson – I’d just go with Scherzer. Billingsley has been so bad of late, I want to hold him on my bench until he turns things around.
By Gary Sherman on Jun 20, 2011
I think shields will regress after the all star break…
question:
I’m not getting Ceutos start tonight I have an open spot on my roster without having to drop anyone for tomorrow only due to beachy coming back, should I pick up a start of Livian hernandez, carl pavano, or do nothing at all? My other pitchers are cliff lee, j. sanchez, and greinke.
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Gary – Of course the smart money is on a Shields regression. I wouldn’t bet against a career best season though.
Pavano has 3-straight starts of four earned runs over 25 IP, and his ERA has gone from 6.64 to 4.20 over his last seven starts. He’s pitching pretty well right now.
By Nick on Jun 20, 2011
Just lost Pujols and trying to get some help.
Should I trade Bautista for Victorino and Beltre? Am I getting enough back?
thanks
By JB on Jun 20, 2011
Ray: Seth Smith just hit the wire. Drop Torii Hunter for Smith ROTW?
What about dropping Dunn for Bourgeois? Sounds crazy probably, but I’m first in HR in my 12 tm mixed roto nonkeeper league despite Dunn and need SBs and average. I feel like my OF is deep enough with Morse, Bautista, Alex Gordon, Ludwick and Boesch that I could handle Bourgeois not playing full-time.
I have Hosmer in my UT spot and two bench spots.
By brad on Jun 20, 2011
your thoughts
chipper jones john jay j sanchez
for cain
do you think sanchez is ok moving foward.
lastly is rasmas and r davis fair for justin upton or holladay?
By Rob on Jun 20, 2011
Hi Ray,
Ricky Nolasco…just a slump or should his owners be scared? In the past 30 days he has an ERA of 6.49 with a 1.85 WHIP…I mean come on Ricky! Do you hold fast to your #20 rating from a couple of weeks ago or is he slowly dropping down the list? I know, I know, one month isn’t a large sample size but are you noticing anything about his numbers that lead you to believe there’s more regression coming? There are guys like Dempster, Niese, Blackburn on the wire so I just need to hear something positive concerning Ricky’s outlook ROTW. BTW, why the animosity toward ROS?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Nick – Bautista has really slowed down in June hitting .259 with a homer. Is this the start of a regression to the mean or merely a poor couple of weeks? My thoughts are out there for all. I think its a regression.
Victorino isn’t a star, but he helps in all the categories and is an extremely solid player. Beltre isn’t as good as everyone thinks he is, but he is consistently posting .275-25-85 seasons. With the plight of 3Bs this year, that’s gonna be pretty darn useful.
I think it’s a solid return and something I would feel comfortable doing, but can’t hurt to shop Bautista around, someone might pay even more.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
JB – Smith is solid. He hit .306 in April, .303 in May and .303 in June. If he could ever figure out lefties (.532 OPS, career .582). Hunter isn’t running anymore, and his average is lacking. He’ll play more which might help in the counting categories, but at this point I’d still go Smith.
Bourgeois steals plenty of bases, but it’s hard to envision him keeping up this pace. He never plays. He has only 83 ABs and just two games at 2B. He has zero homers, only 12 runs scored – that’s simply terrible production – an even with that speed it’s going to be tough to hit .300 let alone .350.
I wouldn’t do it.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Rob – Nolasco is just in a slump. Yes he has been horrible of late, but on the year:
He has a better K-rate than Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmerman.
He has a better K/BB rate than all but 11 NL SPs.
His xFIP is better than Daniel Hudson, Yovani Gallardo, MadBum, Wandy R., Ian Kennedy, Matt Cain etc.
Animosity towards ROS because it’s Rest of the Way. Been that way for years. No idea where this ROS came from.
By cameron on Jun 21, 2011
hey ray,
send kelly johnson, e.aybar, and lohse for mcgehee, bj.upton, and mike leake. thoughts?
10 tm mixed, keeper lg.
thanks.
By Rob on Jun 21, 2011
Hi Ray,
Quick trade question. I would GET Holliday for my OF and I would GIVE Pedroia and D. Gee.
Have Weeks at 2B and can pick up J. Weeks, Wiggington, Ackley, Dee Gordon or A. Hill for my MI spot to replace Pedroia.
my other OF are Pence, Ethier, LoMo, Hart, Morse…Start 5. I feel Pence is on the cusp of being an elite option but Morse is going to regress and when he does, I don’t want to be left with a need. Also, Hart and LoMo are no show stoppers either. The benefits of Holliday, in my mind, make up for the disparity between Pedroia and, say, Hill or Ackley (or whichever option listed in the above post you would recommend adding). What do you think? This is points so power and OBP lead to points from a roster spot
I have to do this, right? Gee has been hot but I can’t depend on him keeping this up and I have concerns about Pedrioa’s health. Holliday has those concerns too but he’s an elite fantasy option. Again, I have to do this, right?
By Mark from Chicago on Jun 21, 2011
Hi Ray, thanks for the Scott Baker tip a while ago, it’s really paying off nicely now as you predicted. I need a starter for this week and was wondering if Mark Buerhle vs the Cubs (today) or if I should grab Beachy for his first start wed off of the disabled list. My gut is telling me to go with Buerhle vs the anemic Cubs offense vs a guy fresh off the DL. Thanks for the advice!
By Fred on Jun 21, 2011
Ray,
I’m desparate for R and SB…so much so that I picked up N. Morgan this week hoping to get some R’s from him. Ausitn Jax was dropped and I am not a fan of his, but is he an upgrade over a Tabata or N. Morgan the ROTW?
Thanks!
By brad on Jun 21, 2011
do you think rasmas and raja davis for holliday is a good trade I would be getting Holliday
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Cameron – how many of the guys can you keep. If it’s a handful like 5 or 6, I’d get the side with the best player – UPTON.
The rest of the list, on both sides, has some talent, but none of those others have much of a chance of being a top-75 player.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Rob – Some worry about Pujols being out effecting Holliday. I don’t see that happening.
I’d do the deal.
Add Holliday to give you beefy outfield.
Add Ackley or Hill (weeks and gordon not likely to post huge OBP).
Don’t worry too much about Gee. The regression monster is lurking.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Mark from CHI – The Baker tip goes back to last year… don’t know why so few didn’t listen. Oh well.
I don’t like using hurlers in their first start off the DL. Too much risk in that unless I’m desperate.
Interleague play very tough to break down since matchups are so shallow in terms of batters vs. hitters.
Buehrle is nothing more than a moderate option against the Cubs. I wouldn’t get too excited about him.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Fred – Morgan is hitting .343. NO chance he keeps that up.
Oddly, he has only three steals, a pathetic total for a guy with his speed.
Jackson will play everyday, so I’d choose him over Morgan, but as you said, not exciting.
By SF on Jun 21, 2011
Hey Ray,
Can i get your thoughts on a trade. I’m towards the bottom in our Roto league and just lost Pujols for awhile. My team is picking it up lately but i got an offer that could help shake things up.
Give – Stubbs, Sandoval and Morse
Get – Konerko, Francoeur and Haren
I’m thinking about going for it, i don’t need steals and the way i look at it…Konerko gets more RBI’s than stubbs, Morse and Francoeur about the same and Sandoval is okay but wont do much with the giants offense, while Haren is a stud pitcher.
By Rob on Jun 21, 2011
Brad – for what it’s worth, Rasmus goes through hot and cold spells. He’s still a young player and isn’t showing that he can sustain the presence at the plate he had at the start of the season. Rajai Davis has fallen flat on his face. He can steal if he ever gets on base. I dumped him last week.
Holliday is elite, consistent and proven…he’s consolid (consistent + solid). I’d do the deal and pick up a steals producer if you need one, or pick up someone else to help where help is needed most. Then again, I’m not on the BBG payroll, so take my advice with a grain of salt.
Also, please note the spelling of Rasmus and Rajai, just for future reference.
By Jerry on Jun 21, 2011
Hey Ray,
Which is the better infield going forward for a 12 team mixed H2H with these offensive categories: H HR RBI SB K FPCT AVG OBP (No runs category)
1.
Howard, Cano, ARod, S. Drew
or
2.
Texiera, B Phillips, M.Young, Hanley
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
SF – Francouer is nowhere near to Morse, not in any stretch of the imagination. Morse has more power and will hit for a better average. He also qualifies at 1B and the OF. He blows away Frenchie.
Konerko is a beast, but Stubbs ain’t half bad. Both guys are top-50 performers.
Haren is way more valuable that Kung Fu Panda.
You can do this deal if you don’t need steals and need a boost on the hill, but realize Francouer is dead weight.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Rob – Thanks for lending a hand an offering your advice. Also like the use of “consolid” – we need to take it viral, and for helping with spelling of names. You can spell things wrong all day and it doesn’t bug me at all – unless your spelling guys names wrong.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Jerry – Just to point out – using AVG and OBP is a bit redundant. Also, Field % is a poor measure. Better off using something like zone rating.
I’d prefer group one. I just don’t know about Hanley, like I wrote in the blog. He just scares the hell out of me. If everyone was healthy an operating at optimal levels group 2 would be ahead.
By Rob on Jun 21, 2011
I tip my hat to you, Ray. If it wasn’t for your consolid advice here on BBG and on The Drive, I’d surely be hurting. As it is, though, with your help I am currently sitting atop my two leagues.
By SF on Jun 21, 2011
Thanks Ray, I’ll hold off and see how my team does. Thanks for your all you do
By rutherford on Jun 22, 2011
Ray, I recently made a deal for Pujols, too, and I feel your pain. In a 9-team,4×4, NL only, we are very deep, so I don’t think I can find much help (although I will bid on Wily Mo) but I am looking at a better-case on Pujols and hoping that when he gets back, he may be the old Albert we have been looking for all season. Any other replacement suggestions?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Rutherford – Remember that kid from Leave it to Beaver - Lumpy Rutherford. You probably get that all the time.
At least there are options. An “industry standard” NL only league would be 13 teams, so only nine teams gives you choices. There’s no way you can replace Albert unless you do a deal. That’s it. You’re not even going to find an everyday player on waivers in that setup, so you’ll just have to do your best to find someone who is getting the most PT.
By Gary Sherman on Jun 22, 2011
Ray, who’s going to be better over the rest of the season, Blackmon or Bernadina?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Gary – Its all about playing time. Bernadina has to deal with proving the the Nats he deserves it, and Blackmon the same with Rox. At some point Ankiel returns, and Folwer won’t stay in the minors all year.
Back in March I said Bernadina was a darkhorse 15/15, so I’ll stick with him for now.
By Joel on Jun 22, 2011
1) my bad on the cake misspelling.
2) I have a followup Q that I think will be of general interest to your readership. Part of the reason I want to trade Rollins is that after another trade I made, I have Rollins, Victorino and Ryan Howard in my lineup.
So, to you: how bad is it to have so many players from the same team in one’s FFB starting lineup? THANKS!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Joel – I can’t spell either, says the writer. Don’t worry. Just giving you a hard time.
It’s more of an issue in football than it is in baseball – i.e. having multiple guys from one team.
If it’s the Phils and it’s Rollins, Victorino, Howard I could care less since they’re all aces.
If it was Ross, Sandoval and Huff, then I’d be a bit nervous.