Mailbag: June 21, 2011
June 21st, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
If you had to pick one would you choose Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson?
– @we3kings00
Carpenter has frustrated everyone who owns him. Four times in his past 10 starts he has allowed at least 10 hits, and five times in that stretch at least four earned runs have crossed the plate leading to a 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the year. However, I still see positives here, and I was writing about them all the way back on May 12th in Buy or Sell – NL Version. Here is why I’m still bullish on Carpenter.
(1) His K/9 rate is 7.11. That would be a five year high.
(2) His fastball velocity is 92.3 mph, higher than the 91.4 from 2010 and better than his career 91.6 mph mark. It doesn’t seem like he is injured.
(3) His BB/9 rate is 2.19, nearly a half a batter below his career 2.59 mark. As a result, his K/BB ratio is 3.25 which would be his second best mark in five years.
(4) His HR/9 mark is 0.91 and his HR/F mark 10.1. His career rates are 0.92 and 10.3.
(5) His xFIP is 3.34 and his career mark is 3.41.
So why is he struggling? He’s currently allowing his fewest grounders since 2002 leading to a 1.44 GB/FB ratio that is well below his 1.78 career mark. He’s also been battered to the tune of a 23.4 percent line drive rate and a .327 BABIP. Given that Carpenter owns a 19.1 career line drive rate and a .297 BABIP, it would seem like he’s probably due some regression. Also, his current left on base percentage of 67.5 percent would be his first time under 71.7 percent since 2000 (minus his six inning 2007 season).
Hudson twirled a gem Monday to even his record at 6-6. People get so fixated on one thing at times, and with Hudson it was his 4.08 ERA heading into the outing. With eight shutout innings that mark has now dipped to 3.73. Hudson also has a superb 1.09 WHIP. Is that surprising? Hardly, not when you consider that Hudson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career. If we remove his 2009 season when he hurled only 42.1 innings because of injury, here is what we find.
Hudson has won at least 11 games in each of his 11 full seasons.
Hudson has posted an ERA over 4.00 just twice in 11 years. Nine times that mark has been under 3.65.
Hudson has posted a WHIP below 1.27 eight times.
Hudson is as consistent as any hurler in the game over the past decade plus, and his only real failing is that he doesn’t strike batters out (he’s punched out more than six batters per nine only once in seven years).
Both pitchers are solid veteran arms that should have plenty of value the rest of the way. Hudson might be the “safer” option, but I’d still choose Carpenter who offers more upside in the strikeout category, not to mention that I think his ratios also have a good shot at improving the ROTW.
Should I deal Stephen Drew and Jordan Walden to get Hanley Ramirez?
– @noneedforreason
What do you do with an injured player? It’s a question that is at the fore of everyone’s minds. Think of it. Of the top-25 players coming into the year, here are the guys who have been on the DL: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez. It’s been simply amazing.
Ramirez is back for the Marlins, but he’s still not playing day games after night games because of his wonky back, and he’s also been dropped to sixth in the batting order. It really does no good to analyze his work to this point since it’s so clearly been inferior to his career levels in pretty much every conceivable way. With his continued struggles to get healthy, it’s a fair question to ask if he will be able to flash his elite skills this season, and even if he does, how long will it take him to get there?
I dislike making deals in which I give away the “best” player in the group. I also dislike making deals in which I give up an elite player. However, at this point, I wouldn’t look down my nose at someone who took Drew and Walden for Hanley, especially if that club could use help in the bullpen. I’d like to see if I could get more because HanRam is still an elite talent, but I would understand why someone would make a move. Given that, I’d probably end up withdrawing this offer leaving Hanley on the other squad.
Jon Jay looks like he’s gonna play every, so Jay or Angel Pagan as 4th outfielder until Albert Pujols gets back?
– @metsthoughts
Jay has hit .304 with eight homer, 41 RBI, 64 runs scored and seven steals in 450 big league at-bats. Clearly he has the bat to garner significant work in the big leagues. However, he’s never been a big homer bat, his high was 12 in 2008, and that will not change if he continues to operate with a 1.97 GB/FB ratio which is his career mark (that number is through the roof this season at 3.21). While he will steal the odd base, Jay’s not likely to challenge Vince Coleman’s team records for thefts.
Pagan snuck into the top-50 overall last year with a wonderful 5×5 line of .290-11-69-80-37. He’s not going to match those totals this season after a slow, injury filled start, but he’s cranked things up in June hitting .297 with 11 RBI and five steals, production that mirrors his level from last season. He’s done a great job controlling the strike zone with three more walks than punchouts, and he only figures to see his totals improve when the Mets get back David Wright and Ike Davis from injury.
I’d take Pagan. Neither player will kill you in average, and neither has more than moderate power either, but Pagan has the wheels to easily outdistance himself from Jay.
Everyone in those 10 team mixed leagues with three starting OFs and no MI or CI are killing me.
– @BaseballGuys
Obviously this isn’t a question, and I’m quoting myself (how narcissistic is that?). Still, I just had to vent a bit. I get questions about 15 team leagues, dynasty leagues, NL-only leagues that also use the AL central (that’s not made up) etc. However, the one that really gets me is when people are asking for advice for their 10 team mixed league that starts only three outfielders and does not use middle or corner infielders. I addressed this situation recently in Player Pools where I tried to explain why 10 team mixed leagues are just too shallow.
And finally, I know it’s not a question, but I thought you would all enjoy the sentiment from @justintime56 who had an interesting take on the Albert Pujols injury…
I blame La Russa for Pujols’ injury. Should have played him @ 3B… he only needed one more start at third for eligibility.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Albert Pujols, Angel Pagan, Chris Carpenter, Hanley Ramirez, John Jay, Stephen Drew. Jordan Walden, Tim Hudson
By Fred on Jun 21, 2011
Ray, I agree with the last e-mail. Face it, LaRussa is to blame for ALL that goes awry in FBL….it’s a fact!
I know that you have Ubaldo rated ahead of Bud Norris in your SP ROTW rankings, but with the way each of them had been pitching since that time I be “the fool” to drop Ubaldo for Bud as a #6 SP as my focus is to reduce WHIP, ERA and get K’s (in that order)? Looking at their number…splits and schedules the ROTW I think Bud finishes with better peripehrals and K’s but would apprecaite your thoughts. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Fred – Norris could easily finish with more Ks than Ubaldo. He’ll certainly have a better K/9. However, innings might be an issue. Astros have nothing to play for and he’s never tossed 180 innings in a season. He’ never been this good at limiting walks either. I like Norris as you know, told everyone out there to draft him this year, but I’d be hard pressed to say he’s a lock to better Ubaldo in the ratio categories. No way to roll with both eh?
By Jackson on Jun 21, 2011
Hey Ray could you tell me who’d you go with: Alex Rios or Nick Swisher the rest of the way and why?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Jackson – Give me Rios. He has 5×5 skills while Swisher never steals bags, and is a .250 hitter. Swisher has been hot of late, but Rios simply offers more across the board talent. Also, everything pretty much looks normal with Rios AND his K-rate is down. When that BABIP rebounds, and it will, he will improve. It may not happen, these things don’t always work out, but to me the one to own is Rios.
By Chad on Jun 21, 2011
Ray- 12 team mixed 30 player rosters 5 OF. Who would you rather? Bernadina or Bourgious?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Chad – Bernadina. He’s been hot of late, and with Ankiel on the DL,he’s got a chance to run with the job. Bourgeois isn’t a full time guy, especially when Pence gets back. As great as Bourgeois has been on the bases, we all know he isn’t going to hit .345, and the guy is on pace to scored about 29- twenty nine – runs this season. Oh yeah, he also has one homer in 250 career ABs.
Give me Bernadina.
By Rob on Jun 21, 2011
Hi Ray,
ROTW in a points league (+1 for counting categories and -1 for K) who do you want at 2B: Hill or Ackley. The proven but underperforming Hill or the young upstart Ackley? Power bats are in high demand.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Rob – You seem to suggest you’re leaning toward Hill, and I can’t blame you for that. Hill should be able to hit more homers than Ackley the rest of the way, so I don’t have a problem saying you can go in that direction. However, there is a chance you could catch the proverbial lightning in a bottle. I’d say this. If you have to start one guy all the time, I’d go Hill. If you can pick the guy up, wait a bit to see how he handles things, then maybe Ackley, who could hit for a higher average with a better OBP, might be a strong option.
By david on Jun 21, 2011
hi, ray. i’m in a 12 team mixed weekly head to head league. although i’m not in first, my record is well above the team in the last playoff spot. (since we’re head to head, we have three weeks of playoffs).
the guy who has pujols is in dead last. so what do you think of me trading adam lind and alex avila for pujols and elvis andrus? i also have carlos santana at catcher, so i don’t think i take too much of a hit there and maybe improve if santana can continue to turn it around. i’m sure my team will suffer in the short term (meaning next 6 weeks), but i’m thinking that i’m then well positioned for the end of the season and more importantly the playoffs. and what if he doesn’t want to include andrus? is the deal still good, if you think it is to begin with? thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
David – Pujols is likely to miss all of July according to latest reports, so that’s a good chunk of games. No telling how long it will take him to get to 100% once he’s back either.
Andrus would be a nice add for his steals potential. If you already have Santana, you do not have to have to have Avila if you only start on catcher, so no problem moving him.
I think this is a fair offer given your teams makeup – just hope Albert returns at 100% in August if you do it.
By Joel on Jun 22, 2011
ray: in my 6×6 h2h league, I can (via 2 seperate deals) trade rollins and madson to get Streudel cabrera and Papelbon. should I do it?
By Mike on Jun 22, 2011
Ray – I know you are skeptical about Bautista, but he has been a monster so far. What do you think of this possible trade: Bautista, Haren and Jeter for Tulowitzski, R. Zimmerman and Scherzer? Which side do you like better and do you think it is relatively fair? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Joel – you were kidding with your Streudel Cabrera comment right? Would have been better if you spelled it right – Strudel, though I like the effort.
Madson could lose his CL job to Lidge at some point, but Lidge isn’t expected back until late July at this point. Papelbon is clearly the safer option at CL.
At SS, Cabrera cannot keep this up, as I stated http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/09/around-the-diamond-2/
He’s got only two homers in his last 27 games. I’m not going to say I wouldn’t rather have him than Cabrera, but Rollins is picking up his game.
Give me Cabrera and Papelbon, but it’s close.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Mike – Bautista has one homer in 22 games, is hitting .227 in June with a .666 OPS and just eight RBI in 19 games. Overall he has been fantastic. Recently he has stunk.
Scherzer has been bad of late, he’s no Haren, but still a huge arm.
Jeter for Tulo = slam dunk there.
Zimmerman or Bautista? I’d say it’s a hell of a lot closer than most think it is.
Give me Tulo/Zimm/Scherzer.
By JB on Jun 22, 2011
Ray:
Good pitchers who are struggling are starting to hit waivers. I picked up Nolasco late last week, and then sat him this weekend based on your twitter rec. I’m waiting out his slump. Billingsley has now shown up and I can grab him Friday. I’m inclined to do so based on what you recently said about him. Beachy is also available and is looking pretty good against Toronto right now. The question is, should I pick up Billingsley and Beachy, and if so, who should I drop? Right now my SPs are Nolasco, Norris, Stauffer, Baker, Gee and Colon (DL). I have Bard, too, to try and help with my WHIP and ERA, but I could drop him to make room. Are Bard and Beachy worth making some moves considering my current staff?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
JB – I would add Beachy and Billingsley. From your group of arms, the two I’d let go would be Gee and Colon. If you can store Colon on a DL spot, I’d give consideration to dropping Bard. He’s a nice arm to have around, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league he isn’t that useful without many save chances.
By Andrew on Jun 22, 2011
Ray–Frustrated Adam Dunn owner and I have Morse. Do I drop Dunn for Brenden Boesch to beef up my OF? Just looked at his yahoo rankings and 30-day stats and is tough to keep Dunn over that kind of production? Too early to bail? I could also drop Werth but have a man-crush on him…
By Ryan on Jun 22, 2011
Hey Ray, I was offered Lester\Ethier for Pujols\THudson. Do you think I should jump on this or stand pat with Pujols? I have Dunn at 1B currently filling in.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Andrew – I can understand the frustration with Dunn, especially if you have been holding him all season long.
I’m not a huge fan of Boesch, but he has been the superior player all season long.
Keep Werth and make the move for Boesch if you need the OF help.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Ryan – If it is not a keeper league, then there is no question you should do this. Even in a keeper lg, you probably should take it.
Hudson is solid no doubt, but he simply can’t hold a candle to Lester.
As for Pujols, what if he is out two months? What if he returns in five weeks but it takes him two weeks to get going? At least you can count on Ethier to remain consistently solid.
I’d do the deal.
By Craig N on Jun 22, 2011
Ray
Keeper al only 4×4
I offered keepers Y Escobar and Moustakas, positional fillers T Sipp and Castro for V Martinez Pedroia Pierre Scherzer….Can this be a winner type move? I see much more sb’s and rbis, but not much more power…Scherzer has to be better than so far, no?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Craig N – Scherzer has to get better, though he is in a huge funk right now. Pierre – worried about losing PT if they call up Viciedo. Pedroia is a beast, as is Vmart.
That group is the side with the most talent, and best shot to help you this year. I’d do it, though it’s gonna be tough to get it accepted.
By Craig N on Jun 22, 2011
Ray
I know u like Reynolds somewhat, but I need saves in same league….would you deal Reynolds for Ichiro and S Santos
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Craig – Reynolds for Ichiro and Santos? Sign me up for that one immediately.
By Jerry on Jun 23, 2011
Hi Ray, I’m in a 12 tm mixed league and I just made a 2 for 1 trade. Not in need of any particular category. Have an empty roster spot for my utility spot. Who is the best add of these:
Jemile Weeks, Roger Bernadina, Seth Smith
Corey Patterson, Mark Trumbo, Carlos Pena
Aubrey Huff, Jason Kubel, Mitch Moreland
Alex Rios, Vernon Wells
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Jerry – Rios is the best guy for 5×5 coverage. Of course, his production has been poor. Still, he shouldn’t be on waivers.
Smith a strong hitter who doesn’t play every day, but he can really swing it.
Bernadina doing well right now, elevated to leadoff spot as well.
That’s the order I would go.