Rookie Roundup
June 22nd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
I always caution people not to go “all in” with rookies. The lure is intense, I’m not going to deny that, but in the end youngsters often end up disappointing because of the unreasonable expectations placed upon them. With that, here are my thoughts on some of the more heralded rookies who many were banking on getting great results from in 2011.
Dustin Ackley (.267-1-3-2-0 in 15 ABs)
Ackley is off to a solid start to his big league career with a hit in each of his four games played. He’s only whiffed one time though we’ve yet to see his trademark ability to get on base as he has only one walk. The Mariners say he’s going to play every day, and with that he is an intriguing mixed league option. I wrote about Ackley in The Prospect Trinity.
Domonic Brown (.213-4-11-11-2 in 94 ABs)
Brown has tons of talent, all the physical tools needed to be a fantasy star really, but he’s still a pretty raw ballplayer. Add in his work from last season and we are looking at a guy with a .212/.274/.385 slash line in 156 big league at-bats. The six homers and 24 RBI in that time are passable, as are the four steals, but the fact of the matter is that Brown still needs to hone his ample skills because he’s shown little consistency with the Phillies.
Eric Hosmer (.276-5-22-20-2 in 17 ABs)
The Royals’ phenom burst on to the scene with five homers and 17 RBI in his first 23 games. However, in the 18 games since his hot start he’s managed a mere .615 OPS thanks in part to zero homers in 71 at-bats. He’s also knocked in only five runs in the month of June. Given how deep the first base position is, it may be time to see if you can convince someone in your league that Hosmer is the hitter he was in May and not the guy who is struggling to keep his OBP (.326) and SLG (.418) at league average levels (.323 and .397).
Desmond Jennings (.282-10-33-52-12 in 262 ABs at Triple-A)
Jennings has show more power this season than at any point of his development, but unfortunately he’s pretty much stopped running on the bases. Given his skill set he’s going to be paid to steal 40+ bases, not to power 25 homers, so he’d be well served to get back to that approach. With Matt Joyce struggling and Johnny Damon being a potential trade chip at the deadline, Jennings will be called up at some point, though it remains to be seen how imminent the call will be. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Jennings.
Brett Lawrie (.354-15-49-51-11 in 223 ABs)
He was tearing it up in the minors and was mere days, literally, from being a starting member of the Blue Jays when fate stepped in. Lawrie ended up suffering a fractured hand that he is still working his way back from. It’s highly unlikely we will see him with the Jays before the All-Star break at this point, and that’s if when he returns to action that he picks up where he left off, far from a certainty given his injury. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Lawrie.
Jesus Montero (.291-5-25-25 in 227 ABs)
Russell Martin has done pretty well this season, Francisco Cervelli is an adequate backup backstop, and Jorge Posada is also always around if the Yankees need a hand behind the dish. That’s a lot of names that Montero will have to jump over. There is always the chance that the club will call him up to DH, but Posada has improved of late (.395 in June) and you would have to think that in the heat of the pennant race that the Yankees would make a move to add a veteran bat if they needed a hitter versus turning things over to an unproven rookie.
Anthony Rizzo (.167-1-2-3-0 in 36 ABs)
First off, it’s merely 36 at-bats, so no one should be panicking. However, Rizzo hasn’t been able to carry over his success in the minors as of yet, something I predicted could happen in my June 7, 2011 Mailbag article. The good news for Rizzo is that the team is committed to him and he will continue to play every day despite the slow start. However, it should be pointed out that he has struck out in a third of his at-bats and has just one RBI in his last nine games.
Speaking of youngsters, I dug up an old article I wrote about the Arizona Fall League in November 2009. You might want to give it a read to see what my first hand impressions were about Ackley, Brown, Mike Moustakas, Ike Davis, Buster Posey and Jemile Weeks amongst others. How accurate were my initial thoughts after watching games for three days?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Domonic Brown, Dusin Ackley, Eric Hosmer, Jesus Montero
By Ricky S on Jun 22, 2011
Ray,
Traded Moustakas for Kubel. I just happen to be a Kubel fan. It’s a 10 tm league so probably won’t have much effect one way or the other (especially because I have Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez for the 3rd base spot). Anyways, I was wondering if you had heard any injury update for Kubel? Thanks as always.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 22, 2011
Ricky S – Kubel is hurt, and it’s always hard to make a move on an injured guy, but this deal is fine. Moustakas has a great future, but in a 10 tm league this year that isn’t a keeper, no need to hang on to Mous if you already have Youkilis and Aramis.
Right now, hope is that Kubel is back on Friday.
By Rob on Jun 23, 2011
Hi Ray,
I am currently without a catcher. I have two scenarios I’m considering:
1. Give Hamels to receive Avila and Latos
2. Drop LoMo for Mike Napoli on waivers. (any update on Napster’s injury?)
Other pitchers are Gallardo, Shields, Gio, Wandy, Nolasco, Kennedy.
LoMo is flat right now and from what you’ve been saying, he’s not all that great anyway…other OF are Holliday, Stanton, Pence, Ethier, Hart, Morse, LoMo’s just dead weight on my bench right now. I’ve tried trading but his June has killed any interest someone might have had in him.
Would you try to counter #1 with Shields instead of Hamels? Hamels is a top 10 arm, Shields a top 20 arm and Latos a top 30 arm. I really don’t want to give up Hamels. Avila could finish as a top 5 backstop but so could Napoli if healthy…What do you think?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Rob – Napoli’s injury was updated on my twitter page last night – http://twitter.com/BaseballGuys/status/83791957222100992
You could drop LoMo for him, but it’s a pretty big risk at this point because (A) we don’t know for sure when Napoli will be back, (B) how much will Napoli play and what team will he be on?
Avila is likely to see a pull back – he’s not a .300 hitter.
I’d try to give Shields, keep Hamels, for Avila and Latos.
By Reese on Jun 23, 2011
Ray is JJ Hardy for real? Im thinking about dropping D. Brown and picking him up.K.Johnson and Palonco are also out there. Right now my outfield consists of(play 3) Werth, Bernadina, Victorino, swisher and i have hosmer,and moustakus to rotate at my 2 utl positions with one of those other OF. What should i do?
10 team mixed league head to head. scored on r,hr,rbi,sb,bb,k,fldpect.,avg, ops
rest of my lineup
c mauer 1b Konerko 2b Cano SS Reyes 3b Zimmerman
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Reese – I love all the “is he real” type questions I get from people. What does “real” mean to you? Is that asking is he a power bat that ranks very well at the shortstop position? If that’s the question than the answer is yes. If the question is asking is Hardy going to hit .304 this year than the question is no. If the question is will Hardy hit 20 homers in less than 400 at-bats like his current pace suggests? Then the answer is not likely.
In a 10 team mixed league he’s barely an option at SS. He certainly has no business being a UT bat. Also, don’t forget that he is always injured and averaged just 108 games the past two years.
By Reese on Jun 23, 2011
Thanks ray! You also defined my use of “real” to a T! I also forgot about him being injury prone. So i guess i just roll with my rookies? LOL(sinister laugh)
By Randy on Jun 23, 2011
Trade Help!
Would Receive:
Pedroia
Hanley Ramirez
Nelson Cruz
Choo
James Shields
Giving Up:
D. Espinosa
Matt Holliday
Ryan Braun
Matt Latos
Your thoughts on this blockbuster trade?
By brad on Jun 23, 2011
Need your help on this trade
H Rameriz for weeks
Ackley would be my second baseman going foward. Do you think Rameriz has huge upside and will get close to his numbers by year end or just keep weeks?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Randy – Pedrois over Espinosa easy. Shields over Latos. Choo/Cruz – over Braun. Hanram over Holliday – loser.
I say you do the deal. You loose two stars in Holliday/Braun but you get HanRam/Pedroia to boost your IF, and Choo/Cruz could both be top-15 OFs ROTW. I’d also rather have Shields over Latos as I stated.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Brad – No chance at all that Ramirez gets his “usual” numbers. He’d have to hit .400 with 25 homers, 60 RBI, 80 runs and 25 steals. That ain’t happening.
Could be perform at his previous elite level ROTW without reaching those numbers? The answer to that one is yes.
Is he healthy? Can he stay healthy? Can he stay out of his managers doghouse? All are big questions.
I’d say don’t do the deal but it’s a risk either way. It’s not like Weeks doesn’t have his own health concerns if you look at his career.
By Joel on Jun 23, 2011
ray: i’ve been offered Choo and Zobrist for Josh Hamilton and Carp in my 12 team 6×6 h2h league. Carp is my 6th or 7th starting pitcher. What do u think?
By Bob on Jun 23, 2011
Hello Ray.
I am in a 10 team 5×5 roto league no keepers.
my staff is kershaw,haren,pineda,cj wilson,hellickson,humber,j sanchez we start 5. would you trade any of them for j upton? 2 wins seperate 6 points but my o.f is Stubbs,rios,werth,pagen,r davis, we start 3 of.so stubbs and 4 strapjobs. i need runs/sbs which sp would you offer or will these losers wake up? thank you
By brad on Jun 23, 2011
another trade
chipper jones for francour
weak in the outfield will replace schaffer.