What’s on Tap?
June 24th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Tonight’s a big night for me as I get ready to make a big home cooked meal. What’s on the menu? Pancetta and peas, creamed corn and a main course of stir fried chicken and eggplant. I know you wish you were coming over. Don’t lie.
Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez are two of the better closers in baseball, but will they remain so for the duration of the 2011 season? Both pitchers are gearing up to be dealt by their respective clubs. You have to figure that both will be dealt to a team that will ask them to close, but what if a team like the Yankees comes a calling? Mariano Rivera is going to remain the closer for the Yanks, we all know that, so an addition in the pen would be one in which the new guy would be asked to serve as a setup man. Again, I don’t anticipate either bell or K-Rod going to a team that won’t ask them to work the 9th inning, but it’s something to keep in mind if you own either hurler right now.
Adam Dunn please wake up from your slumber. Perhaps he made a wish in a water fountain that resulted in him switching bodies with his friend who always wondered what it would be like to be a big league baseball player? I know that sounds stupid, but it is the same basic plot of The Change-Up, minus the baseball connection, a movie that will be in theaters in August (it stars Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman for all you ladies out there). Dunn is hitting .175 with seven homers in 217 at-bats. Are you kidding me? Dunn has hit at least 38 homers in 7-straight year, tied with Babe Ruth for the second longest such streak in baseball history. He’s looking like he may not even get to half that mark this season. He’s been so awful that his career OBP of .378 dwarfs his current slugging percent (.323). My goodness, his SLG is only .009 points higher than his OBP this season. You simply can’t lose your skills overnight, can you?
Do you need a laugh? If you do, and you missed this yesterday, here’s a wonderfully amusing story about Josh Hamilton who says that he can’t hit during day games because he has blue eyes.
Orlando Hudson has appeared in 1,180 games in the big leagues in a career that started in 2002. He just set a career best with his 11th theft of the year. He’s only appeared in 40 games this season. It’s pretty rare for a guy to go from stealing eight bases a year to 44 (his current pace if he played 160 games). Hudson certainly will not get there because of missed time, but it’s still remarkable to consider how out of bounds he is right now on the bases. Guys don’t suddenly take jumps like this in performance. Now where is my update on Jose Bautista again?
Speaking of Bautista he will be the Blue Jays third baseman moving forward. You can’t blame the Jays for bringing him in from the outfield, not when the third base position has produced five homers, 26 RBI and a .177 batting average this season for the team from the Great White North.
I love bacon. By itself, on a sandwich, in a salad or wrapped around some type of fish. If you disagree with my assessment that bacon is the best food on the planet then I don’t know what to tell you.
Have we all overlooked just how amazing that catcher Brian McCann is when he has a bat in his hands? McCann is currently hitting .305 with 13 homers, 45 RBI an a .903 OPS – fantastic numbers for a backstop. Since the start of the 2006 season he leads catchers in homers (120) and RBI (486). He’s also hit a robust .290 in his career.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam Dunn, Babe Ruth, Bacon, Brian McCann, Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell, Josh Hamilton, Orlando Hudson
By Rob on Jun 24, 2011
Hi Ray,
Who would you rather have in a points league (+1 counting cats and -1 per K)
Napoli
Soto
Iannetta (playing time an issue here?)
Lucroy
Suzuki (just…well…blah…)
Whiteside (upside with Posey out?)
Main priority is to pick up the guy that’s going to play most often and hit for power/average.
I lean toward Napoli when he’s healthy and playing consistently. But any of these guys stand out? Who would you pick?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 24, 2011
Rob – Power/Avg combo almost impossible to find at catcher, especially with bench options.
Here are my rankings from a bit ago: http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ROTW-HIT-May30-2011-BBGuys5.pdf
If you’re going for best all around guy, it’s Lucroy right now. The others have bigger issues with their average.
By Rob on Jun 24, 2011
Olivo, Pierznski and Ramos are also out there. I looked at your ROTW so I know Napster and Soto were the highest ranked but has anything changed, and would my points set-up change your ranks at all?
Sorry for the double-post, my mind is always playing catch up behind my hands.
By Otay on Jun 24, 2011
So I have some options here, I’m trying to trade for Starlin and Zobrist. The other team is interested in either Mccutchen or Stanton. I have a ton of steals with Bourne and Stubbs, and my homeruns SHOULD be good having longoria and tulowitzki, but the homers have been weak lately. Opinions on who you’d rather trade here? I do need help in AVG no matter what.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 24, 2011
Rob – Olivo wont help at all in average. Lucroy is a younger version of AJP. Ramos don’t know enough yet, and not ahead of the others anyway. Wouldn’t change my rankings of the backstops.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 24, 2011
Otay – I’m not clear on your trade, can you clarify?
By Andrew on Jun 24, 2011
Ray, heard your squabble today about Beachy not being a 10-team SP, but ill try again…
Which 2 do you like going forward…
Beachy, J Zimmerman, Carrasco, Collmenter
Also, haven’t dropped Dunn yet but coming close! Love the show, thanks!
By Rob on Jun 24, 2011
Hi Ray,
You scared me today on The Drive. For a fleeting moment, you mentioned Hanrahan possibly being traded and becoming a set-up man. What’s the water cooler talk about my four closers: Hanrahan, Putz, Storen and Axford. Who might get dealt and wind up as a set-up man?
If I were to trade Hanrahan for one bat OR one starting pitcher, what calibre of each should I reasonably expect to get?
And part three: Which of these two do you roll with in your UTIL spot – Hosmer or LoMo? They’ve both been pretty poor in June, when do they snap out of it? Is LoMo more reliable than Hosmer for reasons other than experience?
By Brian on Jun 24, 2011
Ray,
Whats up man?
Im last in K’s and wins(bad luck there)
Looking to trade for a good starter.
Should I trade Pedroia and try to get someone like Lester. Do you think Im asking to much or not enough.
I have Hanrahan, I was thinking of dealing. He may be worth zero at the all star break. Who do u think I should target for him? Someone in my league needs a closer and he has Kershaw, but dont think he will budge
By cameron on Jun 25, 2011
Hey Ray,
10 team mixed, 7 keeper.
currently votto, longo, hanram, mccutchen, weaver, hanson, and either strasburg/carlos santana if he figures out how to get the bat off his shoulder.
time to drop morneau? if he recovers on schedule he’ll play like one month this year? too risky of a keeper option for next year IMO… right? But those numbers before his concussion last year were off the charts (yes-keyword:before) Potential is there obviously when healthy, but do you think he fully recovers by next year or is it time to give up and jump ship? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 25, 2011
Andrew – Zimmerman and Beachy. Carrasco is on a hot streak but doesn’t have the skills of the others, and I’m still trying to figure out how Collmenter is fooling hitters since he just doesn’t have the track record, or stuff, to be doing this.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 25, 2011
Rob – Yes, Hanrahan could be moved to another club. It’s not like the Pirates are gonna make the playoffs. If they do move him, you’d have to think it would be to a club that might use him as a setup man. I also said though that I think he will finish the year as a top-10 CL, so let’s hope it stays that way. Non of your other arms are going to be traded.
No way to know what you could get for Hanrahan. Some people love closers, others hate them. I’d say a top-75 hitter or top-40 SP if I had to guess.
I don’t know if either will “snap out of it.” Both LoMo and Hosmer are young and still developing their craft. Neither is a .300-25 guy at this point. I’d go with LoMo.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 25, 2011
Brian – I can’t tell you who you can get for a player since I have no way of knowing how your leaguemates evaluate players. There is NO way on earth you can move Hanrahan to get Kershaw though.
If you need pitching help, and can move Pedroia for Lester, that would be a good deal.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 25, 2011
Cameron – I’ve been on the other side of the fence from Morneau all year. I’ve told everyone, repeatedly, that I’d avoid him. No way I would have drafted him in a 12 team league this year, and certainly not in a 10 team league (I didn’t even pay him much mind in my 15 team lgs). Your league is a keeper so that’s a bit different. No idea about him moving forward. In addition to his head, the rest of his body is now giving him fits. With your list of seven keepers, there is zero reason, none, to hold on to Morneau, especially since you already have Votto.
By Joel on Jun 25, 2011
Ray:
1) goodluck with dinner tonight. a Lady involved by chance? have u baked Strudel ala Cleveland for dessert?
2) In my 6×6 h2h league, I traded Hamilton for Choo and Zobrist yesterday afternoon. Thumbs down for me as of last night! Anyway, I’ve been offered Beltran for my Anibal. My other SPs are: Hamels, haren, Ubaldo, carp, marcum, Neise and Homer. I think I heard on the radio this week you’re pretty iffy on Anibal going forward. Should I do this? Do you think I can do better if I move Anibal, or is Beltran the best I can realistically hope for? Thanks!
By Justin on Jun 25, 2011
Ray,
Now that J Sanchez is on the DL, I need to add a SP – who do you like better: Latos, Romero, Zimmerman, or Bedard for me to aquire? I also have J Garcia that seems a bit shakey – should I hold on to him or try to trade him?
Thank you for your insight!
By William on Jun 25, 2011
Ray,
I have to drop one of these two players to bring back M Holliday off the DL…..which one has greater value – Rasmus or Uggla? WIth Holliday back, I am stacked in the OF and Rasmus is on the bench. I have Phillips and Kendrick at 2B as well. I am thinking Uggla has more future value and to hold on to him….which one do you think has lesser value?
thanks for your help.
By Nick on Jun 25, 2011
Ray,
Who would you rather have for the rest of the season… Jay Bruce or Evan Longoria?
Thanks
By Burley on Jun 25, 2011
Is Ryan Vogelsong work my last free agent pick up or will he tail off the 2nd half?
By Fred on Jun 26, 2011
Hello Ray! Peas with pancetta AND creamed corn? Two veggies as sides with a stir fry…didn’t you also have veggies in the stir fry? You’re a new supre-hero Fiber Man!!
Anyway, what to do since I’ve lost Choo? Based upon reports it sounds like surgery and perhaps a late August return. It’s his thumb adn I would wager he is out past Labor Day at best if not through for the year.
Thinking of dropping Choo since my DL is already occupied with Jeter and Prado. Have D. Jennings waiting on bench for OF and can replace Choo with lower tier ROTW OF’s such as Bernadina, A. Jackson, A. Torres, Maybin. Since Chooo was not really contributing I’m not at a total loss, but am looking for production in areas of SB, R and BA.
Your thoughts?
By Joe Closer on Jun 26, 2011
Very deep 13 team NL only roto style.
I’m near the bottom in a very competitive strikeout category.
I can activate Worley and/or Zito from my reserve list. I am considering releasing Westbrook to make room for one of them.
Which of the three would be the best choice for K’s the rest of the year?
I also have a number of closers-in-waiting that I could release instead, but also have room to improve in that category with Madson as my best closer right now. I could release Masset, Jansen, Motte, or Frieri instead of (or in addition to) Westbrook.
By Ty on Jun 26, 2011
Hey Ray,
What do you think about Cory Leubke from San Diego? Will he stay in the rotation or just a quick spot start?
By Brian on Jun 26, 2011
Whats up Ray?
I have a chance to get an extra closer in Capps.
Would you do Charlie Morton for him?
By Alan on Jun 26, 2011
Ray,
Very soon I have to drop either Rajai Davis or Mark Trumbo. I need both steals and homers. Who should I let go? Thanks!
By Nick on Jun 27, 2011
Ray,
Who is a better pickup option – Vernon Wells or Alex Rios?
By Mark from Chicago on Jun 27, 2011
Fun Fact: Crispy bacon and hot buttery popcorn are 2 foods that you can still eat with heavy consumption although you may already feel full or satisfied.
By Jim on Jun 27, 2011
Hey Ray, Time to deal one of my closers in a 15-team mixed roto for a bat. Who’s it gonna be — Papelbon, Valverde or Walden? Papelbon for the most part has been very sharp and has great name recognition, but the dern BoSox keep scoring 8,000 runs per game and limiting his save opps so I’m tempted to move him. Maybe I should let my trading partner name his preference and work the best deal I can? Thanks for your advice.
By Keith on Jun 27, 2011
I have decided what to do with Adam Dunn. It’s a reasonably deep head-to-head league. I have a bench spot for him. Having blown my waiver priority on him – as I do every season, I’m the guy who always picks up Dunn when someone else gets sick of his AVG – I will sit on Adam Dunn till the playoffs. Who knows, the way his season is going, playoff week might be the week he finally goes off.
Or not.
By Rob on Jun 27, 2011
Hi Ray,
Wandy to Colorado? Do you think that move could happen? If it does, what are your thoughts on his performance ROTW – tossing at Coors Field isn’t great, but he’s good enough to keep the ERA and WHIP under control, while getting much more run support from Colorado’s offense. So, better outlook with the move, worse or no real change?
Also, your thoughts on a deal I made: I gave Hanrahan/Pineda and received Lincecum – I don’t need the saves and besides, I’m worried about Hanrahan being traded and losing the closer role (might regret that because he could stay put and be the top 10 CL you say he can be). And if Pineda has his innings capped later in the season I’d be hurt in our H2H weekly matchups (I don’t want him to be limited in the weeks we’re in the playoffs). Solid move to sell high on both those guys to get the consolid Lincecum in return?
And third (want to pack as much into one post as possible) – If you lost Pujols and now Choo and I offered you Hosmer and LoMo for Ricky Romero, would you accept? Your OF is okay without Choo but you’re siting on an empty 1B spot with no replacement. Let’s also say there’s slim pickins in free agency. BTW, I’m on the Hosmer/LoMo side so I’m asking to see if this has any chance at all or if I need to offer more (could replace Hosmer with Butler and/or LoMo with Hart or Morse).
By Ricky S on Jun 27, 2011
Ray,
2 Questions:
1. Thoughts on Seth Smith as a replacement for Shin-Soo Choo in a 10 team mixed league? Or would you rather have a guy like Ryan Ludwick?
2. I know you don’t like doing weekly starts, but would you start Stauffer at home against KC or Baker at home against LAD
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Joel – Dinner went pretty well, only ruined one of three dishes. j/k Lady like it nonetheless though, so I think it was a success.
Sorry, as you know, Choo is now likely to miss 6-8 weeks with his thumb injury.
I’m down on Anibal because of his injury history. I don’t know if he can be trusted to throw 200 innings, and that K-rate is also pretty high. Still, Beltran is Mr. Injury as well, so this move wouldn’t waylay my concerns about health.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Justin – Garcia is OK, but I’m not a huge fan. He is a solid arm, but not a difference maker.
If I was adding guy—
Bedard is great but you can’t trust him to stay healthy.
Zimmerman likely won’t be allowed to hit 170 innings this season.
Latos is solid, great park.
Best add would be Romero though. Ks, grounders, consistency. Sign me up.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
William – Phillips and Kendrick rendure Uggla useless. If you have to make a move, go ahead. Even if you have a MI spot, you are covered. I see what you are saying about Rasmus vs. Uggla in terms of ROTW value, but with your roster, I can’t justify keeping three 2B.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Nick – I’d rather have Longoria over Bruce. At the end of the day I can find all kinds of run producers in the OF, but those same type of bats at third base are golden. His numbers ROTW should be vintage Longoria, even if his yearly totals fall well short of expectations.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Burley – I can’t tell you to spend your last waiver wire move at this point of the year. We aren’t even half way through the year so you simply can’t spend your last move. Hold on to it. At some point someone on your club will become injured and you’ll need that flexibility.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Fred – hey, you have to gear the meal toward the recipient right? Did my best to do that.
I would be reluctant to drop Choo outright, but since you dont have a DL spot I’m afraid it makes sense.
I’d keep Jennings, he’s likely to contribute before Choo does, and add Bernadina off of waivers.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Joe Closer – Worley, Zito and Westrbook = none is going to give you anything in Ks. All are moderate, at best, options there. Zito is in rotation, but don’t know if he stays there. Also a chance Worley could lose his spot when Oswalt/Blanton return, so keep that in mind.
I’d keep Wetsbrook and dump frieiri.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Alan – If I had to drop one I’d let Trumbo go. He has power, and hits the odd homer, but as a 1B he is terrible. At least Davis still has an elite skills with his wheels.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Nick – I’d say Rios is a better option than Wells. I continue to wait for Rios to wake up, but as I keep saying everywhere, there is really no scientific reason that he won’t turn this around at some point.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Mark from CHI – Who doesn’t love a good popcorn or bacon factoid?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Jim – Papelbon and Valverde would be the two I would hold, move Walden.
Saves come in bunches, and there is no way to predict the chances. I guess it all depends on who you can get back for each guy, but I’d be in no hurry to move Papelbon.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Rob – I don’t add/drop/deal players because of a trade that might happen. If I’m in an NL or AL only league than it’s different, but in a mixed league I don’t worry about it until it happens (years ago I kept passing on BRoberts because he was gonna get traded to the Cubs. He never did and up the year as a top-3 2B in my AL only league).
Hanrahan/Pineda for Lincecum – tough call. If hanrahan gets dealt and becomes a MR you look like a genius. If not, lot to give up, especially since Mariners came out today and said they wouldn’t limit Pineda’s innings.
http://gregjohns.mlblogs.com/2011/06/26/mariners-will-monitor-pineda-but-no-big-limits-planned/
Lomo/Hosmer for Romero is a deal anyone who lost Choo and Pujols would have to strongly consider doing.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Ricky S – 10 team league I don’t love Seth Smith because he doesn’t play every day, but to replace Choo you could do a lot worse.
Stauffer is hot, and at Petco that’s a recipe for success… but I dont like making daily calls. lol