Ray’s Random Musings
June 29th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Daniel Bard has allowed leadoff hitters to bat .300 against him (30 ABs). The rest of the time batters are hitting .133 (98 ABs).
Erik Bedard pitched 81 innings in 2008. He pitched 83 innings in 2009. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2010. He’s already up to 90 innings this season. Oh, he’s looked great with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 mark, but you’re playing with a lighted charcoal briquette with bare hands, and you’re gonna get burned. I’d recommend pushing hard to deal him. Maybe he holds on all year and has a fantastic season, but there’s no way I’d be counting on that, not with his track record of ill health. Oh by the way, he was placed on the DL about two hours ago with a bad knee. At least it’s not his arm. The Mariners expect him to be back in two weeks.
Carlos Beltran is on pace for a season of .280-22-105-80, pretty amazing actually given his physical woes. Unfortunately he’s also on pace for a mere six steals. Still, after he hit only 17 homers with 75 RBI and 71 runs the last two years there shouldn’t be a single complaint with this guy.
The last 28 days Brennan Boesch is hitting .380 with six homers, 13 RBI and 21 runs scored. That recent surge puts him on a pace that would lead to a season of .300-20-80-100. Is he that type of hitter? The HR and RBI marks are totally acceptable rates, but the runs and average not so much. Boesch doesn’t strike out a ton, but he also doesn’t walk much as evidenced by his 0.49 BB/K rate that is league average. He also owns a slightly below league average line drive rate of 18.5 percent. Neither of those measure says .300 average. His BABIP is a little high at .329, and though it is a sustainable mark, unless he keeps it up there he’s going to have a hard time hitting .280 let alone .300. Also, not many guys score 100 runs when they have an OBP under .360 (his current mark is .357). Only five guys pulled off that trick last year: Austin Jackson, Derek Jeter, Martin Prado, Brandon Phillips and Carl Crawford.
Cliff Lee is working on a scoreless streak of 32 innings, and he’s the first lefty since 1994 to have three straight shutouts (Randy Johnson). But his success goes deeper than that.
* For the month of June, Lee won all five of his starts.
* For the month of June his ERA was 0.21. No NL pitcher has had a monthly ERA that low since Orel Hershiser in 1998 (0.00 in September). Lee’s 0.21 ERA for the month was also the sixth best mark, minimum 40 innings pitched, in the NL since 1912. That’s kind of a long time.
Wily Mo Pena has three homers in 25 at-bats with the D’backs. He blasted 21 homers in 237 at-bats in the minors. That effort puts him on pace to bash 48 homers in 524 at-bats this season. I’m just saying.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Austin Jackson, Brandon Phillips, Brennan Boesch, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran, Cliff Lee, Daniel Bard, Derek Jeter, Erik Bedard, Martin Prado, Wily Mo Pena
By Ricky S on Jun 29, 2011
Ray,
Just lost Bedard. Have Garza on the bench. Could pick up Stauffer but would have to drop Desmond Jennings. Any idea if this guy is getting the call soon or not?
By Dave92 on Jun 29, 2011
Hi Ray-
Great site! I would like to clear a couple of roster spots and could use your ROTW opinion on these positions:
Casey McGehee or David Freese at 3B
Fernando Salas or Sergio Santos at 2nd RP
Thanks for your help!
By JB on Jun 29, 2011
Ray: My pitching stats are slowly starting to look better, mostly due to your advice. Many thanks for your solid advice. Stauffer and Baker pitching well now. Thoughts on picking up Hughes as he comes off the DL? I have Colon in my DL spot now. I could drop Colon or a low end offensive guy (Bernadina or Hosmer) to make room, but I’m not really willing to drop a SP unless you think it is advisable. In addition to Stauffer and Baker I have Norris, Billingsley, Beachy and Gee.
By KJ on Jun 29, 2011
Ray, what’s your take on Pirates’ Alex Presley?
By Jonathan on Jun 29, 2011
Ray,
Trying to make a decision about the bottom of my pitching staff. I can keep only two of these three pitchers: Ryan Dempster, Scott Baker, and Colby Lewis. What kind of second half do you see for these pitchers, and who do you think should be the odd man out?
Thanks,
-J
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2011
Jonathan – I wouldn’t drop any of those three actually. Baker has been great while Lewis and Dempster have been very solid if you remove a handful of poor starts. If I had to drop a hurler it would be Lewis, but unless you are in a 10 team league, all three have value.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2011
KJ – Solid player with no elite skill. He’s really a 4th OF type which relegates him to being someone you should only be paying attention to in an NL-only lg. or a very deep mixed league, say 15 teams.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2011
JB – I’m not a fan of Colon. I don’t think he continues to pitch like its 2000. His arm might have been fixed, but his body hasn’t been. Don’t forget that the last time he threw even 100 innings was 2005. I just don’t trust him despite his great work this season.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Dave92 – Glad you like the site my friend.
Casey McGehee or David Freese at 3B
Fernando Salas or Sergio Santos at 2nd RP
I really don’t want either closer as my #2, they are better #3′s. If I had to pick on go Santos. After a rough couple of outings he has like 10 Ks in 5.1 innings, and appears back on track. Salas has continued to struggle, and it might be getting close to the time where he will be ceding a few of his chances.
At third, go Freese. He isn’t a power bat, but with McG barely hitting his weight, it would be nice to add Freese who has an ability to at least provide a strong batting average.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Ricky S – No idea on Jennings and when he will be called up. I assume it will be when Ruggiano tanks, but we’ll have to see. Rays are taking their time. He’s only hitting .279 at AAA and just .267 his last 10 games, so I guess the Rays are just seasoning him some more.
Bedard should be back in two weeks, but if you need SP help, grab Stauffer who has been great of late – 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 37/8 K/BB ratio in June.
By Brian on Jun 30, 2011
Sup Ray, I have not heard much about Daniel Murphy and I know why but quietly he is getting my attention. I understand no power here but with eligibility at 1B, 2B & 3B and Ike Davis looking more and more like he’s out for the year, am I crazy to want to pick him up? Is the sample size big enough at this point?
By Chrissy on Jun 30, 2011
Woo-Hoo Ray I took the prize! That was fun! I wish I could only re-draft my own team on daily basis. lol Thanks for sharing DraftStreet.com and all of your fantasy advice on here and XM radio.
Chrissy
By Marty on Jun 30, 2011
Ray,
Can you tell me who got the better deal? Reyes/Nunez/Freeman for Holliday/Bailey/Hardy. I needed the SB badly and a 1B until Albert is back.
Thanks-
By Alan on Jun 30, 2011
Ray,
A friend and I were having a conversation about points leagues vs 5×5 leagues. What are your thoughts on Points leagues vs. 5×5 leagues? Which do you prefer and why?
By Pablo on Jun 30, 2011
Ray – thanks for the Draft Street invite and congrats to Chrissy for such a solid outing. How did you make out in last night’s competition?
By Regina on Jun 30, 2011
Hi Ray!
Q about pitchers on Roto league, standard categories + CG and QS. There’s an innings cap. I can pick up several points in K’s, I’m right behind several teams. Morrow is on the wire, which would you drop Ogando or Collmenter?
This is a very shallow league (obviously), I now see Trevor Cahill on the wire too. Would you take both Morrow and Cahill and drop Ogando and Collmenter?
By Benny on Jun 30, 2011
Hey Ray – I know from listening to the XM show that you’re still hanging on top hope for Dunn. Do you see anything in his peripherals that suggest he will turn it around? Or is going to be an Andruw Jones like “fall of a cliff” point in his career?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Brian – Daniel Murphy has been very consistent this season in he avg. column. Since he qualifies at so many spots in your league he’s a solid add for that reason. At the same time, what you see is what you get. He might hit .290, but he isn’t likely to reach 10 homers or to score or knock in 75 runs, so he really only has value if you can play him at 2B unless you are in a 15 team lg. or bigger.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Chrissy – Congrats on the win. My team did really well on the pitching side, but my offense stunk. You doubled my point total – fantasyfandom – for the night, so big time congrats to you.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Marty – Reyes/Nunez/Freeman for Holliday/Bailey/Hardy
In a mixed league, Freeman is merely a place holder. Nunez has had a slow June, but he’s been really solid this year. Reyes, you can argue easily that he is a top-3 performer right now.
Holliday is a top-20 hitter. I don’t know which pitcher Bailey is – I assume it’s Andrew. He’s as good a play, if not better, than Nunez ROTW. Hardy has been great, but there is no chance he keeps up this pace. Also concerns about his health.
I’d say the second team comes out ahead.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Alan – I prefer 5×5 leagues. It’s the standard of the industry. That doesn’t necessarily make it better, it just means its the way I grew up playing the game. Points leagues tend to add more categories which makes the game a bit better in terms of replicating the on the field product, so there is nothing wrong with that at all. The only issue being that finding information that is geared specifically for your league is a bit harder since so many of the points leagues use diff. setups.
As long as you don’t play in a Head to Head setup, I really don’t care which system is used.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Pablo – My team didn’t make it happen last night. FantasyFandom was my club. Came in 52nd. My pitching for the night was great. My offense? Not so much. Thanks for playing.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Regina – Immediately drop Collmenter. Haven’t you been reading my stuff on Collmenter?
http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/15/what-goes-up-must-come-down/
Over his last three starts he’s given up 14 ER, 23 hits. He just doesn’t have the skills to keep his 2.71 ERA, let alone the 1.12 mark he had two weeks ago. He’s nothing more than a league average arm despite his strong start.
Morrow has the better arm. He’s the guy I would add. However, since your league counts quality starts, Cahill might be a slightly better option because he is more consistent than Morrow. It’s your call there, but I’d still take Morrow.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Benny – I have no idea why Andruw Jones just stopped hitting. In addition, I have no idea why Adam Dunn stopped hitting either.
Sometimes these things happen, and good players usually rebound.
How about .240-22-62… that was Paul Konerko in 2008.
Since then he has been a .300-30-100 guy.
I’d expect Dunn to rebound, he’s been too consistent in his career. Problem though is when does the rebound come? This month, next month, next year? Only hold on if you can afford to.
By Regina on Jun 30, 2011
Thanks Ray…..I haven’t been able to keep up with your blog (yes I know, that’s bad!) between 2 jobs and 5 fantasy teams, don’t know where all my time goes! Thanks for the advice, dropping Collmenter now. Haven’t been starting him the last couple of starts anyway. (whew!)
By wesley on Jun 30, 2011
I’m in a 10 team league. Roto. I have a open spot ? Oswalt is on waivers and I have number 1 waiver? Is he worth that? If not matusz, lackey,or gee are available
By Fred on Jun 30, 2011
Hello Ray! Taking into account their performances since the issuance of your Pitcher ROTW Rankings, how would you now rank these SP for the ROTW….Baker, Morrow, Ubaldo, Kuroda, Norris, Corrasco?
Thanks.
By Fenz on Jun 30, 2011
Ray, here’s a trade offer I can’t say no or yes to. 12-team, 27-man roster, 5-freezer, CBS points league, been jockeying b/t 1st and 2nd last month or so. I’ve been offered Votto (not freezable – 2 year limit)(have Konerko), Greinke (have Chacin,Jimenez,D. Hudson,Liriano,Ogando,Bedard,Luebke) and Freese (have Beltre), for Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton (leaves with Ethier as lone RF). I’m thinking of asking for Hanley instead of Freese, although Hanley cannot be frozen and both Stanton and Heyward have one year left on contract. Thoughts on renting Votto and Hanley with Greinke as a sleeper freezer?
By Doug on Jun 30, 2011
Ray… My son offered Weeks and Veras for Santos and K.Johnson… very deep 12 team points league with good value for holds (better for saves) and 7 RPs on each team so closers are impossible. Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Wesley – Gee, Matusz, Lackey don’t bring me any level of excitement in a 10 tm lg. I don’t know exactly where Oswalt is either at this point with his back, but I’d take a chance on him since you have an open roster spot.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Fred – ROTW rankings, here you go: Baker, Ubaldo, Morrow, Norris, Kuroda, Carrasco.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Fenz – Votto/Greinke/Freese for Heyward/Stanton.
No brainer here. Take the Votto side. You’ll get better numbers this year, and if you’re trying to win this year, do the deal.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 30, 2011
Doug – I know your league has holds, but I still cant get too excited about Veras. Never head of a league that gives more points to holds than saves. Weeks is a stud, I assume you’re referring to Rickie.
Johnson has been solid, though uneven all year. He’s also killing you in the avg. column. Santos though, in a league that doesn’t move closers, would obviously be a nice add – he’s turned it back around after a rough stretch of games.
Ultimately there is only one elite player in this deal – Weeks.
You’ll therefore want the side with Weeks on it.
By Dave on Jul 1, 2011
Ray, In a keeper format, but trying to win this year (tied for 1st), would you rather have Cahill or Romero on the mound. Cahill seems stronger long term, but what do you expect rest of season for both?? Need wins and K’s
By Ryan on Jul 1, 2011
Ray, first: any problem with me targeting Nolasco for a 2nd half bounceback? Second: I would be willing to deal Huff, Blake, Ibanez or Freese in a 1 for 1 to get Nolasco (this is an NL-only league). In what order should I be ranking these guys (as I don’t want to give up too much for Nolasco)? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 1, 2011
Ryan – If you listen to me, you know that I’m very fond of Nolasco. I would expect him to improve in the second half, but it’s not like he has been that bad thus far.
I would deal any of Huff, Blake or Freese for Nolasco, even in an NL Only league. If you can pull that off, do it.
Huff, Freese, Blake (best to worst, so deal Blake first).
By jim fino on Jul 7, 2011
damon or delmon ? rest of ’11
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Jim – As much as I want to say Delmon, I have to go with Damon right now. Young has had a couple of start and stops, and when he’s been out there he’s been both unproductive and lackadaisical for much of the time. Damon is no great shakes, but he is about as consolid as any player in the game.
By Jim on Jul 7, 2011
AL Only League, season long roster, need SB’s.
Lester, Beckham & Luke Scott for Humber, Hill & Gardner? Giving up too much w/Lester? Gardner the key here.
Thanks Ray,
Jim