Deadline Weekend

I’m on a working vacation. As almost all of you know by now, I do a daily fantasy show for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. While I do the show from the Bay Area in California, and I’m not kidding I literally do the show in my slippers at times, my co-hosts are in St. Louis while the SiriusXM studio that the show originates from is in Washington D.C. I was able to visit D.C. to meet the crew this week, and it was a great time. I’m now in St. Louis and the good times are still rolling. Some thoughts from the trip…

Went to the legendary Pappy’s Smokehouse for lunch today in St. Louis. Had quite the feast, and the staff was super friendly. Give yourself a lot of time if you go though, it took 45 minutes in line just to place our order.

It’s warm as hell back east. It’s 90 degrees in STL today an it feels cool compared to the temperatures I’ve been subjected to of late.

I toured the dome where the Rams play (thanks Amanda), and got a behind the scenes tour. Nice facility, but odd to think about a football game being played under a roof.

Speaking of the NFL, I’ve been asked multiple times about whether or not I will be ranking football players here at BBGuys. The answer to that question is – I think so. I won’t be doing much NFL writing here – though I will be writing NFL for Rotoinfo.com and FantasyAlarm.com. However, I’m thinking about doing something for the BBGuys crowd, and that is, releasing my own personal positional rankings. I’m thinking that I might do so next week, so look for information on how you can get your hands on the “Oracle’s” 2011 NFL rankings.

Some trade deadline thoughts…

Hunter Pence is as consolid a hitter as you will find. Any team would be wise to add him to the mix if the cost wasn’t prohibitive.

Ubaldo Jimenez should remain a Rockie. Don’t know why they would be looking to deal him when they control him for the next few years at a very reasonable price.

Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera are available for the right price according to reports. According to the Royals that ‘right price’ is a #3 starting pitcher. Good luck with that Royals.

The Rangers aren’t certain what is wrong with Neftali Feliz, so they are looking to add an arm to their bullpen. They appear to be a finalist in the Heath Bell sweepstakes, but the two sides are having a hard problem coming to an agreement. Late word suggests that the Rangers are now interested in the Athletics’ Andres Bailey. However, don’t you think they are gonna have to pay an awful lot to get an arm from their own division? Given that Bailey is under control through 2014 this is most likely a smokescreen being set out to get the Padres back to the dealing table.

By Ray Flowers

Quietly Making History

Seven.

That’s the number of The Wonders of the World.

It’s also the number Mickey Mantle wore on his back.

There are seven days in a week.

Seven also happens to be the number of men who have hit 600 homers in their career.

That number will soon turn to eight.

762 – Barry Bonds

755 – Hank Aaron

714 – Babe Ruth

660 – Willie Mays

630 – Ken Griffey Jr.

626 – Alex Rodriguez

609 – Sammy Sosa

Jim Thome continues his march toward history, albeit with little of the fanfare that he deserves. Sitting on 596 home runs, Thome is about to join the elite power hitters who ever played the game. Yet no one seems to care. I find that completely vexing if for no other reason than the club is so exclusive. Add in the fact that Bonds, A-Roid and Sosa have huge clouds hanging over their heads as a results of the PED scandal, and it could legitimately be argued that only four men truly deserve to be in the group. The fifth would be Thome (there have long been whispers about Thome, but he’s never failed a test, nor is there a massive amount of evidence pointing to his guilt like there is with Bonds.
A few Thome facts…

He has hit at least 20 homers 16 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 30 homers 12 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 40 homers six times, the 5^th highest total in league history.

He has scored 100 runs eight times.

He has drive in 100 runs nine times.

He has scored more than 1,500 runs, and knocked in more than 1,600.

He’s walked more than 1,700 times in his career putting him in the top-10 all-time.

Face it, Thome has been a very good player for a very long period of time. He was never a good fielder, he lost his glove about a decade ago, but the man is one of the best in the history of the game at taking a walk and going deep. For that, he should get a lot more credit than he has received for a career that rightly should place him in the Hall of Fame one day.

And finally, how about Hideki Matsui? He recently joined the 500-HR club. The majority of his bombs were hit in Japan (332), but Matsui still became the first player to reach the total 500 homer total in a career split between Japan and the States. Congrats

By Ray Flowers

Deals a Startin

It was only a matter of time before the deals started to fly with the Trade Deadline set for July 31st. I usually avoid the rumors, they tend to change like every 13 minutes, but today we’ve actually got a deal that we can discuss. Here are the parameters.

White Sox Receive: Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart

Blue Jays Receive: Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen

That’s what we know for certain. However, there’s a twist. It looks like this deal is a precursor to another move. Here is that proposed deal.

Cardinals Receive: Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepcynski and Corey Patterson

Blue Jays Receive: Colby Rasmus, Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, P.J. Walters

I know, my brain hurts too. Here are some of my thoughts on the key players involved in the deals.

Colby Rasmus
A five tool talent prone to mental lapses and selfish/destructive behavior, the dude is just 24 years old and just a year removed from a .276-23-66-85-12 campaign. He can’t hit lefties (.228 in 303 at-bats in his career), is prone to massive slumps (he’s hit .201 over his last 42 games), and he strikes out too much (more than a fifth of his at-bats), but there is no disputing the talent – and he’s still just 24 years

Edwin Jackson
A nice arm no doubt, but he’s always been inconsistent. On the year his K/BB ratio of 2.49 would be a career best, but he still sports a 3.92 ERA, has a high WHIP at 1.42, and is a roller coaster ride. He’ll move to the NL which should help at least a bit, making him a solid add in mixed leagues. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so he has something to pitch for.

Octavio Dotel
He can still fling it, he has better than a K per inning this year, and he’s even done a solid job limiting the walks with a 3.68 per nine mark which would be a four year low. He’s also locked in right now with a 2.40 ERA over his last 19 appearances.

Jason Frasor
This righty really has better stuff than he’s given credit for. He doesn’t have one outstanding skill, but he usually throws strikes, doesn’t kill you in the ratio categories (2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), and generally does a good job keeping the ball in the yard (0.76 HR/9 for his career).

Corey Patterson
Fleet of foot, Patterson always seems to have a stretch where he flat out kills it, but in the end the numbers never seem to get to where you look at them with excitement (i.e. his slash line is .252/.287/.379). Really, a .287 OBP? The six homers, 44 runs and 13 steals make him a solid league specific add, but he simply isn’t a very good hitter.

Mark Rzepcynski
Rumpelstiltskin has a nice arm. He get Ks, he has an 8.22 K/9 mark in the bigs, and he gets grounders like no ones business (54.4 percent). He may never pan out as a starter, but he could have a long and successful career with his skill set coming out of the pen.

Zach Stewart
A 3rd round pick in 2008, Stewart might end up doing the old starter in the minors, reliever in the majors thing. Also like Mark R., Stewart has a nice ground ball arm, though his K-rate has dipped a bit the two years (about seven per nine the past two years in Double-A).

Mark Teahen
Really? I’ll say this, he is a great follow on Twitter (@ESPY_TEAHEN)

Mailbag: July 26, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Jemile Weeks for Desmond Jennings ROTW?
– @jbpowellal

Weeks has provided the A’s with a spark on offense. He’s hitting a strong .307 through his  first 40 games, and he’s used his speed to swipe 10 bags. He has little power, he hasn’t gone deep once and his SLG is a poor .405, but he slaps the ball and runs. One part of his game that he hasn’t flashed yet is his patience at the dish as his current 4.6 walk rate is about a third of the number he posted at Triple-A this year. It would be nice to see him put a few more balls into the ground, his 40 percent ground ball rate isn’t great, but overall this has been a good start to his career.

Jennings is a better talent than Weeks as he can do a few more things on the offensive side of the field. Jennings, surprisingly, showed some power at Triple-A this year with 12 homers in 89 games, while flashing his elite speed. He has also done a solid job all throughout his minor league career at getting on base (his OBP in over 500 minor league games is .380). He’s up with the Rays, finally, and he has looked phenomenal in a couple of games. The real question at this point is can he stay healthy?

Many will argue that Weeks is the preferred option because of his position (second base). I’m still going in the other direction even though Jennings plays a position that’s filled with talent (outfield) because he is just so talented.

What’s your take on Alex Cobb. Is he just fill in or does he have long term value? 
– @mercier_five

Cobb is part of a current six man rotation with the Rays. Personally I think the choice to go in that direction is a terrible one, but it’s the way it is in Florida right now. The biggest concern I have with Cobb is his catastrophic K/9 drop. Well over a K per inning guy at Double and Triple-A the past two years, he’s currently at 5.14 through seven big league starts. His BB/9 rate is also worse than the league average as well at 3.43. So how is he having success? It’s all in the grounders as 56 of the batted balls put in play off him have been rug burners. He’s much more Derek Lowe and Fausto Carmona than he is James Shields right now.

As for his long-term value Cobb, a 4th round draft pick in 2006, has risen through the minors on the Rays’ pitching plan, and as we’ve seen that often leads to a lot of success. Cobb was a strikeout per inning arm in the minors, but he’s failed to keep that up in the bigs. The hope is that he doesn’t turn into Wade Davis who has done the the same thing. As a big league starter he’s likely to settle into the #4 role on a good team meaning that he will be hard pressed to ever be a difference maker at the big league level.

What’s your take on Pedro Alvarez now that he’s back?
– @TrillaTrav

Alvarez, the second selection in the 2008 Draft, hit 16 homers with 64 RBI in 95 games with the Pirates last season. Heading into this year nearly every expert in the fantasy game had Alvarez in their top-10, and even those that didn’t were admitting that Alvarez clearly could reach that level. He simply hasn’t. Alvarez has hit .211, posted a .289 OBP and is sporting a sickly .305 SLG (his OBP last year was .326). Alvarez ended up injured and demoted, though he finally seemed to have found his stroke. In 18 games on the farm he hit .325 with a .439 OBP and .538 SLG leading to a recall with the Pirates.

Alvarez has the ability to hit 30 homers while driving in 100, a rate that he was basically performing at last season in the second half (13 homers, 53 RBI over his last 71 games). He’ll need to cut his K-rate down, its over 30 percent this year, to reach that level of success. With all the problems at third base this season, Alvarez is well worth taking a shot on in mixed leagues as there’s always a chance that he’ll recapture the success he had last season in the second half – he certainly has the talent to do it.

IF Heath Bell gets traded, do I drop any of these for Mike Adams – Izzy, Axford, Marmol, Perez, Santos?
– @hedmohave

Last week I broke down the outlook of Mike Adams in the July 19th Mailbag piece. Let me put it this way – his skills are superb, sublime, scintillating in fact. He deserves to be rostered in all but the smallest leagues right now, even as a setup man. If he ends up the closer for the Padres, his value would skyrocket. As for the other arms, here are some thoughts.

Jason Isringhausen: Give him credit for his comeback. The Mets appear intent to sit on him and let him mentor Bobby Parnell leaving Izzy as the Mets’ closer. Jason hasn’t thrown 40 innings since 2008, didn’t pitch in the majors last season, and is 39 years old. He also is giving up a huge 53 percent fly ball rate while his 1.88 K/BB ratio is terrible.

John Axford: Good for the Brewers in doing the right thing, i.e. leaving Axford in the 9th and using Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man. Axford continues to impress with a K.9 rate of 11.27, which when combined with a 54 percent ground ball rate results in him being ideally suited to long-term success in the 9th inning.

Carlos Marmol: The Cubs’ righty had a brutal week, but since then he’s back on track with four scoreless outings. Owner of a devastating arsenal, Marmol is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he is back as the closer. It’s a bumpy ride, but the results are usually solid. If his BABIP of .324 regresses back to career norms (.254), he would be in line for a strong finish.

Chris Perez: He has been struggling a bit all season despite converting 22 of 24 save chances. A K/9 per inning arm, Perez has seen that number dip to 5.80 this season, which when complimented but his 4.54 BB/9 mark makes him one risky option on the hill. That regression has been on full display the last two weeks as his ERA has gone from 2.23 to 3.03 over four outings.

Sergio Santos: He’s being used cautiously by Ozzie Guillen as Sergio has now appeared in 5-straight games in which he hasn’t lasted an inning despite allowing not a single hit and just one walk. He has been strong all year (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.07 K/9) and remains the arm to own in Chicago, even with the odd usage.

Would I drop any of these arms to add Adams if the deal goes down? I wouldn’t even wait that long. I’d make the move to add Adams right now at the expense if Isringhausen.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

In the Bowls of Hell

I’m in Washington DC this week, before I saunter on over to St. Louis mid week. It’s a ton of fun getting a chance to spend some quality time with the great folks I work with at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. To the last person, a class act group. But I gotta tell ya, this heat is killing a kid. As a California born and raised boy, 90 is pushing the limits of my heat tolerance. As you are all likely aware, there is a historic heat wave hitting the east coast right now. The other night at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and it’s a spectacular place to view a ball game, it was 102 degrees at first pitch. I know your thinking that’s super hot for a day game, but the problem is it was 102 degrees at 7:05 PM. It’s almost too hot to live. Thank goodness there were copious amounts of beer available because what’s better when it’s hot than continuing to dehydrate yourself with booze?

This past weekend saw the HOF induction of Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar take place. While I have some doubt about the efficacy of Blyleven, there is no doubt whatsoever that Alomar was worthy of induction, a fact that I covered in The 2011 Hall of Fame Class. If you ask me, Alomar is one of the five greatest second basemen of all time so I can’t understand why he wasn’t inducted in his first year of eligibility. I’ve also written a few other pieces about the HOF, and two of them are What is a HOF Closer?, and Innocent Until Proven Guilty if you have some time to kill.

Now on to a Mailbag question…

I’ve been holding onto Desmond Jennings and now I can finally get him in my lineup. I need someone to sit between Coco Crisp, Delmon Young, Eduardo Nunez and Magglio Ordonez. Weekly lineup. Steals is not an issue for me, but in a race for R, RBI, HR still.
— Vinny

Desmond Jennings is an elite talent that I profiled back in The Prospect Trinity (the piece also discussed Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, the other two arms of the Trinity). Jennings has taken forever to get to the big league level. The Rays were reluctant to start his arbitration clock early, and then he suffered an injury down on the farm. However, he’s making up for lost time rather quickly as he he killed it since being called up to The Show going 4-for-6 with two runs and two steals making him pretty much a must add in all formats.

Looking at your group, here’s what I would suggest doing.

Magglio Ordonez is hitting .322 in July. He still isn’t showing any power, and he has no speed, but his bat should play as a 5th outfielder type in mixed leagues as long as he’s healthy.

Eduardo Nunez is hitting .333 in July, and he has stolen four bases each of the past three months. However, you say speed isn’t a big need for you which mitigates the main value add of Nunez.

Delmon Young is hitting over .300 his last 34 games, but he has only two homers and 26 RBI in over 250 at-bats.

Coco Crisp has only one steal in his last 10 games, but he’s up to 27 thefts on the year and it’s pretty hard to say adios to production like that.

I’d add Jennings and let go Mr. Nunez if you have your infield covered. If you have outfield depth, there’s really no reason to keep the limited upside of Ordonez.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July21, 2011

Potential Trade Targets

HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2)  Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran

PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen

By Ray Flowers

Random Musings

Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.

Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.

Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.

Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.

If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.

The last 28 days did you know…

Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.

Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?

Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.

Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.

Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.

Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 19, 2011

photo © 2010 Jeremy Bronson | more info (via: Wylio)

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, and your wish is my command.

Give Ubaldo Jimenez, get Jay Bruce – thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

Ah, the case of Jay Bruce strikes again.

Bruce, the talented outfielder for the Reds, runs as hot as Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses and as cold as a snake whose heat lamp has blown a bulb. Bruce was arguably the best batter in baseball in May hitting .342 with 12 homers, 33 RBI and 23 runs scored on the month (28 games). However, over his other 64 games played this year he’s hit only nine homers, knocked in 24 runs, scored 29 times and hit .,227. Yikes is right. Regardless of the nausea inducing ride, Bruce is still on pace to hit 35 homers with 97 RBI, 88 runs and 10 steals and that is some serious production. However, you take the risk of adding the “ugly” Bruce – there’s no guarantee that Jennifer Aniston is going to com and frolic for you, so there’s certain risk in adding the schizophrenic outfielder.

Ubaldo has had a renaissance of late. Over his last nine outings he had gone 5-3, but it’s his ratios that really sparkle. Over his last 59.2 innings Jimenez has a 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and a superb 4.15 K/BB ratio. He’s completely locked in for the Rockies. As a result of his recent hot streak his numbers this season compare quite nicely to his career numbers.

2011: 8.08 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.39 GB/FB, 0.65 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 3.59 xFIP
Career: 8.09 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB, 0.57 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP, 3.83 xFIP

With the way that Ubaldo is locked in right now, and the guessing game you have to play with Bruce, I’d side with Ubaldo in this comparison.

Is it time to move on from Justin Smoak?
– @pied1

Simply put if you’re in a 10 or 12 team mixed league, the answer is yes. If you’re in a 15 team mixed league though, the answer is much more open ended because of his current struggles (obviously the homers, 12, and RBI, 43, make him a viable AL-only option even with his batting average in the dumps at .227).

After hitting .284 in April with a .920 OPS, it has been all downhill for Smoak. His run total, RBI total, batting average and OBP have declined each subsequent month since April. Moreover, since the calender flipped to May, Smoak has appeared in 64 games with a slash line of .209/.301/.372. He has hit a home run every 29.25 ABs in that time, but given that the league average slash line this season is .255/.322/.399 you can easily determine that Smoak, as a first base option, has been a huge drag on your team if he’s been in your lineup. Would I move on from Smoak in a mixed league? For certain I would. In fact, I’m so down on the guy right now, relative to the mashers at first base, that I didn’t even list him in my top-20 at first in my Rest of the Way Rankings for Hitters.

In a 13 team league 5 x 5 roto, would you stash Stephen Strasburg as keeper for 25th round pick?
– @Kossdaboss7

Word out of Washington is that Strasburg’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is going so well that he might appear in the big leagues in the month of September. Regardless of whether or not that comes to fruition, there is near 100 percent certainty that he will be back to full strength on Opening Day 2012.

Does that mean you should keep him at the cost of a 25th round selection? The answer to that is an unqualified yes. Reasonable expectations should set the upper bar at 160-innings for Strasburg next year, that’s how many innings the Nats are going to limiting their other young Tommy John survivor – Jordan Zimmerman – to this year. Still, 160 innings is plenty good enough for you to siphon off 25th round value from Strasburg. Though Strasburg only has 68 big league innings under his belt, let’s use his performance in that time as a baseline for expectations. Let’s further postulate that he returns 75 percent of his 2010 performance. What would that net you? How about a 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.14 K/9 and a 4.05 K/BB ratio. If he were to do that over 160 innings he would still more than warrant a 25th round protection.

Who is better to roster assuming they take over the closer role for their team due to trade – Mike Adams or Mike Dunn?
– @slappzilla

The rumor mill suggests that Heath Bell will be dealt out of San Diego with the assumption being that Adams will take over as the closer.

The rumor mill suggests that Leo Nunez will be dealt out of Florida with the assumption being that Dunn could take over as the closer.

However, both situations are hairy. Not only are we making decisions based upon supposition, there are issues with both replacement arms. While Adams would certainly be the first choice to take over in San Diego, the same reports that suggest that Bell will be moved are also saying that Adams is available for the right price. If Adams is dealt it seems quite possible that he could remain in a setup role. As for Dunn, there has been no official mention of who the favorite would be to take over in the 9th inning with names like Edward Mujica and Randy Choate also in the mix (and don’t forget about Steve Cishek).

So who would I suggest adding? I’m gonna say you go with the pitcher with the best skills (remember the motto, go for skills vs. role). Dunn has a nice arm with a 10.64 K/9 rate in his career, but that 6.52 BB/9 mark might even make Carlos Marmol blush. It’s damn near impossible to count on a guy who can’t throw strikes. As for Adams, here are his rankings amongst all pitchers who have thrown at least 125 innings since the start of the 2009 season:

1st in ERA (1.35)
1st in base runners per nine (7.67)
1st in hits per nine (5.22)
14th in K/BB (4.00).

Give me Mr. Adams who is, flat out, one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball when healthy.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Last Friday I released my ROTW Rankings for Hitters to equal parts adulation and scorn. Today, I’ll further infuriate the masses by releasing my ROTW Rankings for Pitchers.

Before moving on to the rankings it should be noted that pitchers are only listed at one spot (Tim Stauffer might qualify as a reliever and starter in your league, but in the BaseballGuys.com rankings he only appears as a starter).

These rankings are my expectations for pitchers from this point forward. If Josh Johnson is healthy and at 100% percent he’d be in my top-10. However, he’s not even close to that at this point which is why he doesn’t appear anywhere close to that high on the list.

Relievers are so tough to predict because of roles. I’ve tried to blend my expectations based upon what role a pitcher will hold (i.e. Mike Adams will close if he stays with the Padres and Heath Bell is dealt). In most cases it’s still best to target the skills and not the role, but you have to objectively consider whether or not at this point of the season whether or not the role is more valuable.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings