Readers Probes: Ogando and Twins’ Pen
July 6th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
I’m doing something today that I never do. I’m going to address two the questions from the COMMENTS section in an article today because I thought the conversation would be beneficial to all. I’ll directly quote the response of the readers, and then give my thoughts.
Yesterday in the July 5th Mailbag, I gave a less than glowing review of my outlook with Alexi Ogando. Reader Tom gave a differing viewpoint.
“As always, loved the piece. I just wanted to play devil’s advocate with Ogando for a moment with you, though. There are 2 main areas of worry: durability and performance.
With durability, we wonder about the huge jump in innings and getting tired as the season progresses. We’ve seen him tire lately, but the staff is aware and will rest him until July 19th (missing one start). Considering he’s a RP conversion, it might help to look at his teammate C.J. Wilson, with whom they did the same thing last year. Wilson’s previous high in innings was 73.2, but they had him finish with 228 last year (including playoffs). Did C.J. tire? Actually, he got better as the year progressed until September hit. Was it tiring or just regression from his really good numbers? Also, with C.J. (a RP convert), his K-rate was only mid 6′s through July, but then saw a large uptick into the end of year. We could be seeing the same thing with Ogando as well. He started throwing his slider more and bam…season high K’s. He could keep the K-rate at or above 8 as long as he throws the slider approximately 30 percent of the time or more.
Ogando’s innings [high was] about 71 (including minors), so about the same as Wilson had. A big difference between them is that Ogando has much better control. Because of that, he has many less stressful innings and likewise receives less wear and tear on the arm. It isn’t so much about innings as it is a) total pitches and more importantly b) innings with stressful pitch numbers (the innings where 30+ pitches are thrown). As far as performance goes, yes he will see a correction in BABIP. The reason why it is lower at the moment is because of the contact he induces (weak off the bat). That is why his BABIP against line drives and flies is better than league avg and that his HR/9 is better. Will it stay at .247 (present), no. But it is possible for it to remain in the .280′s (Wilson career .289). Also consider that the league-wide BABIP is about .290 this year vs historically always being .300. Also consider that since the beginning of June, Ogando has carried a .310 BABIP and 57 LOB percent…while his ERA/WHIP have been 3.95/1.28. This includes arguably the roughest stretch in performance of his career.
Is it crazy to think this is just a little regression to the mean and nothing more (considering Ogando carries a career 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP)? And if this is the rough stretch (and still a decent pitcher), I wonder how he’ll be with some rest, more sliders, and a better idea of how to pitch as he gains experience. I’m not willing to say he is elite, but he is certainly up there. And just think, Tim Lincecum is going through a rough stretch as well. Over the last 30 days, he is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. But we’re not going to write him off. Considering that Ogando’s rough patch isn’t that bad and other than those few games, he was amazing…maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt. There is precedent with his own teammate as recent as last year that this could hold up over a full season. Maybe lightning does strike twice.”
– TOM
Tom – No one ever brings it more in their analysis here than you do. I applaud the effort you put in, must have taken you a good half hour or more to break down everything with Ogando. Great work – you’re a model for everyone that just writes ‘nuh uh’ in their responses.
I will not dispute the main factual arguments you presented, but I will question the comparison that you drew. It’s easy to compare Ogando to Wilson in that both are converted relievers for the Rangers, but it’s pretty darn hard to directly compare the two. First, Wilson had trained for years in America and had been a big league pitcher for years. Even if his innings total was low, you have to think he was better trained, or shall we say prepared, than Ogando. Second, they are different types of pitchers. Ogando’s GB/FB rate is 0.95 over his two seasons while Wilson’s mark is 1.67. That’s a massive difference that clearly swings things in Wilson’s favor. Third, let’s take a look at your pitch contention. This season Ogando has thrown an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearances and 15.9 pitches per inning. Last season, during Wilson’s big innings pitched bump, he tossed 4.05 pitches per plate appearance and 16.9 pitches per inning. I’m not measuring “stress” at all with those numbers, but those numbers are pretty close (Wilson’s been better this year at 3.85 and 15.8). Fourth, you can’t really compare two pitchers to one another. You can look at historical averages and draw come basic conclusions (.290-300 BABIP for a league average for example), but that doesn’t mean that Ogando will be in that range (as you already know) – he could end up setting a baseline above, or more likely, below it.
The problem with Ogando is that we simply do not know what to expect. Given traditional measures of analysis and historical trends, the pendulum would have to favor me in this argument. Does this mean I will be “right” about Ogando? I wouldn’t have written what I did if I didn’t believe it, but that doesn’t mean I’m always going to be right.
“Ray, is Glen Perkins a save candidate now with another save Tuesday for the Twins? Need to pick up a pitcher, either the injury prone Rich Harden or Perkins? Thanks.”
– JIM
Jim – The Twins closing situation is up in the air. Matt Capps is struggling, he will not be given a saves chance today if one arises, and even if he rights the ship he could be traded at some point (I touched on this situation yesterday in the Mailbag piece referenced above).
Joe Nathan is improving as he’s looked good since he returned from the DL with four straight scoreless outings in which he hasn’t allowed a single batter to reach base via a walk while allowing only one hit. The Twins obviously are looking at returning him to the 9th inning, but is he ready to assume that role right now?
Perkins has two saves in 112 career games. He’s also left handed, and many managers prefer to avoid port siders in the 9th because of matchups, but here’s the biggest issue – he’s never been this good before.(1) His K/9 is up over four full batters. I know he is working out of the bullpen right now versus spending all his time starting, but can he really go from a five per nine type of hurler to a guy with more than a K per inning? Count me doubtful there. (2) He has a 4 year low in his walk rate (nearly a full batter above his normal rate). (3) In 30.1 innings he hasn’t allowed a single home run (his career rate is 1.16 per nine). There’s just no way that I can look at him and trust him to be a closer, and I don’t think the Twins will see is differently. I’m not saying he wont get a few looks in the short term, I think he might, but he’s not likely to have long term success in that role with his skill set and current level of performance which is so drastically out of line with his previous five seasons in the big leagues.
Do I suggest adding Perkins or Harden? Depends on your need (does your team lack for relief or starting pitching?). Harden has great skills, but he has played this game with us all before. Just when we buy that he is “back,” injury strikes. If you need save help add Perkins. Even if he picks up only a few it might help you move up the standings a spot or two. I just don’t trust Harden’s being able to take the ball every five days the rest of the way. If it doesn’t work out with Perkins, you should still be able to find starting help on the waiver-wire.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alexi Ogando, C.J. Wilson, Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan, Matt Capps, Rich Harden, Tim Lincecum
By Brian on Jul 6, 2011
Ray, have a dilemma.
In the process of revamping my 5th place team in a 10 team 5×5 roto league that uses obp. My SP was deep, so I moved my CC for Beltran (best I could find and I checked with everyone) and I gave up Nolasco for Francisco to get saves. Now my team is formulated like this: Avila, Miggy, Espinosa, Castro, Beltre, Hardy, Hosmer, Kemp, Hart, Moreland, Maybin, Beltran, Freese. BN – Crawford, P. Alvarez, Dunn, Joyce. Pitchers – Hanson, Chacin, Zimmermann, Beachy, Billingsley, Ubaldo, Hughes, Rivera, Francisco, Guerra. DL – Madson.
Someone else has come to me and said they’re willing to move Jay Bruce for my Hanson. Would you make this move hoping to be able to pick up some guys off FA or just stream until you reach your innings cap? Or would you sit tight with the roster you have? My other option would be to try to add corey hart to hanson and see if he’d throw me back a SP (like bumgarner or stauffer) along with bruce.
Thanks.
By Andy Nelson on Jul 6, 2011
Ray – I posted a few times in the Comments, and it usually has to do with my Twins. Glen Perkins (a lefty) is just the beneficiary of circumstance… He has 2-saves, in 2-games and has pitched to 3-batters, and got all 3 out. Sunday Perkins relieved Capps with 1-out in the 9th to face a Lefty (Prince Fielder), and struck him out…and then struck out a struggling Casey McGehee: Save #1 of career is Complete. Yesterday… he relieved Capps with 2-out in the 9th to face…you guessed it, a Lefty (Johnny Damon), and he got him to ground out to short (questionable call), but none the less career Save #2. Yes he has pitched well this year out of the pen, but remember… for the last 2 years plus… Perkins was all but ostracize within the Twins organization for calling out the front office… He spent a full season plus in AAA Rochester , and just this season came back to the Twins full time. So… to answer your reader’s question: If you know that Capps is going to put runners on, and a Lefty is going to come up in the 9th… yes, get Perkins for the Save…otherwise, get Nathan… Capps is not “blowing” guys away 5.3K/9. >Andy
By Ray Flowers on Jul 6, 2011
Brian – I really, really dislike the move of CC for Beltran. Hopefully it works, but that’s a huge price to pay.
I’m also not a huge fan of Nolasco for Francisco.
I’m also not in love with the proposed Bruce for Hanson deal. Sorry to be such a Debbie Downer. Hanson is an elite hurler, all he needs to do is to stay healthy. Bruce does some nice things, but as we’ve seen, Bruce is all over the map with drastic swings.With all the Ks as well, he’s not anything more than a lg. average type in OBP which limits his value in your league. When Crawford returns he’ll give your OF the boost it needs.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 6, 2011
Andy – Great points all. Should have known to ask my Twins’ correspondent!
By Fenz on Jul 6, 2011
Ray,I’m at my wit’s end watching another typical awful outing from Francisco Liriano vs. the Rays this afternoon. What do you see for him ROW? I need to take a deep breath or else I’d jettison him for the likes of a Jeff Karstens.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 6, 2011
Fenz – I can totally understand your frustration with Liriano, but I would be a horrible “expert” if I gave the thumbs up to moving him for Jeff Karstens. I’d suggest reading this piece and following the links listed there to help you to understand how to evaluate pitchers.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/07/which-pitchers-should-i-target/
By Brian on Jul 6, 2011
Big trade offer in my keeper league. I am in second now. Giving Longo and Heyward Getting Maybin(Won’t keep) Ackley and Kemp would keep both
Runs/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/Total bases/ON base
This would make my keepers Bautista/Kemp/Tulo/Ackley/Bruan/McCutchin/B Harper
If I did not do the deal My keepers would be
Bautista/Longo/Tulo/Heyward/Bharper/Braun/McCutchin
Thanks Ray
By Ray Flowers on Jul 6, 2011
Brian – Giving Longo and Heyward Getting Maybin(Won’t keep) Ackley and Kemp would keep both .
Longoria has been productive on the field, but injuries have limited (his foot is bothering him). He’s a certain keeper though. Ditto Heyward.
However, I’d prefer Kemp over both of them at this point. His ability to add numbers across the board is unmatched in this group. Ackley is an interesting option long term. Most view him as a guy who could hit .300 with 15 homers, steals. I wouldn’t expect him to perform at that level this season, despite his hot start though. Maybin is a nice add since he’s hot of late, but he’s not a difference maker.
For this year I say do the deal.
For keeper lg, as much as I like Kemp, I don’t think Ackley is going to be as good as Heyward – so do you want to win this season or are you looking to the future?
By Brian on Jul 6, 2011
Flags fly forever so Im looking to win this year and set myself up for the future. I have been very good about getting guys in their prime then trading for young studs. Id like to do both but with the core I have assembled I think I can take the slight hit in keepers
By tim on Jul 6, 2011
Prospect Alert. Who would you like going forward in keeper leagues with OBP
Hosmer/Harper/Ackley/Moustakas/Trout
Thanks Ray
By Gavin on Jul 6, 2011
Odd question but were setting up a league next year H2H. Wanted to run our stat cats by you see what you think
Hitting Runs/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OBP/Slugging/Total Bases
Pitching Wins/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves/Holds/Hits/Walks
I know slugging and TB are the same thing but one is a ratio and one is a counting stat. but we needed to have the hitting 8 cats match up with the pitching.
We put hits and BB in to help counteract streaming. Were in a league where people pitch and ditch and make 300 moves a year, instead of starting quality pitchers they just add starters each day to win Wins and K’s and load up on relievers going 3-2 pitching each week. What do you think of this setup? I think it makes it more strategic. thoughts and comments would be appreciated
By Ray Flowers on Jul 6, 2011
Tim – going forward mean 2012 or beyond?
2012
Ackley, Hosmer, Moustakas, Trout, Harper
Forever
Harper, Trout, Hosmer, Ackley, Moustakas
By Ray Flowers on Jul 6, 2011
Gavin – Up front let me be honest with you — I passionately dislike Head 2 Head setups in baseball. That’s a bad enough setup in football, it’s just terrible in baseball.
300 moves a year — stupid. I think you should cap the moves to avoid this, or better yet, limit people to additions once a week through a FAAB process. Much better. This rolling guys, day after day, rewards the person who does it most, versus the guy who rosters the best team. It completely negates putting together a good team.
Total Bases is redundant. No need for it if you also have OBP and SLG. You stated that too, and I think you should go with that. How about something else like Troubles (2b+3b) if you want to keep it simple?
By Gavin on Jul 6, 2011
Thanks Ray Ill look into that. I would really welcome FAAB bidding but we play in a yahoo league and to my knowledge we can not use FABB unless we do an auction league, as I have tried to get it.
By Tom on Jul 6, 2011
Thanks for the highlight, Ray. Good point about the pitches per inning, as well. I generally just assume guys with a walk rate over 3 are more likely to have a bigger blow-up inning. But I’m not sure where (if possible) to locate pitches by innings to see how many either of them had say 30 or more in a given inning. I’d venture to say Wilson had more, but it could all be moot in the end.
And normally a GB/FB rate is better, but if the SP can a) limit HR/FB rates and b) generate lots of IFFB…then it’s actually better to be a FB pitcher. In fact, those are the types of pitchers who are able to sustain low babips over time. It’s the groundball dependent guys that usually revert to .290-.300 babip. The FB guys are usually fringes (either good with .275-.295 or bad with .305-.325). It makes sense because of the above A and B. If a pitcher has 50% FB rate and say gets 15% IFFB, then 7.5% of balls in play are near guaranteed outs. This is in comparison to a GB pitcher with a 30% FB rate who gets 5% IFFB, which is only 1.5% near guaranteed outs. That 5% difference can be huge and for theoretical purposes, could be considered K’s. That is currently why Bastardo is as nasty as he has been. Other SP beneficiaries that fit the FB/IFFB mold (and their babip) are: Marcum (.260), Wakefield (.245), Weaver (.243), Hellickson (.224), Lilly (.295), and Beachy (.278). The high one, Lilly, is an outlier in HR/FB though with 12%.
By Joel on Jul 6, 2011
Ray: I’m in a 6×6 H2H league, with OPS as the 6th off cat. For the ROS, in my UT, should I go with Starlin castro or Nick Swisher? I have Castro and can trade him straight up. Thanks!
By Tyler on Jul 6, 2011
Hey Ray-
I was just wondering what your thoughts are on Drew Stubbs he has been really struggling as of late. The only thing that keeps me from getting rid of him is that despite how bad he has been he is still #13 OF on ESPN player rater and ranked #34 of ALL hitters in this week’s Hit Parade. So he should have quite a bit of value but no one in my league wants anything to do with him. Would you say that he is a more attractive option in a Roto league rather than a points league since he has the propensity to contribute to both speed and power stats? However, he wont hit for average and the strikeouts seem to practically negate everything positive he does!! Last year he was 49th in points among eligible OF in ESPN leagues, I should probably cut him some slack because he has talent but for as long as I have owned him (acquired in trade) he has been kind of a burden on my squad…Thanks for your help!
By Ty on Jul 6, 2011
Hi Ray,
I’m trying to move Michael Morse for a pitcher and looking to target Scott Baker, Daniel Hudson or Kuroda.
From your rest of the way pitching list you have them ranked hudson, Kuroda and Baker.
Hudson kind of scares me cause he can be so bad at times however he goes up against the Giants and Padres a few times so that helps. I can really use a guy with low era and K’s. Do you still think Hudson is the best option to go for?
By Craig N on Jul 6, 2011
Scarey Votto deal…5×5 Nl only keeper
Ray I have a dumping team offering me Beltran Bay C Pena Karstens and C Coghlan for Votto and J Taillon….would you do it?
I’m in second he’s in 10th, but points for teams 4 through12 close…I guess I mean to say he is not offering half the roster of a really bad team, but he’s quitting on 2011
By Don on Jul 6, 2011
Trout or Heyward in a Keeper league with OBP. Is trout’s value in his Speed or does he posses some pop. Keep forever
By Jake on Jul 6, 2011
5×5 H2H with OBP
Give Tulo
Get A Gonz
Also a keeper league
By bvtime on Jul 6, 2011
I just traded weiters and Beltre for V. Mart and D. Hudson. I have Longo at third already and Beltran will move into my utility slot. Good deal?
By Robert on Jul 7, 2011
Something else to consider with CJ is that he is a well-conditioned physical specimen. While I’m sure that Ogando is no slouch, you don’t necessarily hear that about him. I believe that Ray is fundamentally right in that any comparison between the two cannot function as predictive for the rest of Alexi’s season.
By Alan on Jul 7, 2011
Ray,
I really enjoy your show on XM. Of these three, all with OF eligibility, who would you drop — Mark Trumbo, Bobby Abreu, or Michael Brantley. I need HRs and steals. Thanks!
By Reese on Jul 7, 2011
Ray- My team is in desperate need of offense. Mostly hrs and rbi. The league is H2H. Got an offer on the table where i give up Beckett and Loshe and i receive Carlos Pena and Carlos Gonzalez. Would you make this deal? My pitching staff is pretty deep and i use the wavier wire often to get extra starts. I feel like its a good deal for me assuming cargo isnt hurt to bad. His injury is the only thing keeping me from making this deal, but i thought it would be nice to have some expert advice. thanks.
By Ricky S on Jul 7, 2011
Ray,
Would you trade Jason Heyward for Joakim Soria and Alex Gordon? I need saves. I could also just pick up Melancon or Javy Guerra, but I’d prefer a guy who might ACTUALLY succeed.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Joel – Castro is hitting limited in that he has less than ideal power, but his game is strong. With the weakness of SS production this year., he has a lot of value. Of course, the OPS add in your league makes it tough to count on him. Swisher on the other hand is a rock. You know exactly what you are going to get from him, and his OPS will blow away Castro. Remember though, just because OPS is a category doesn’t mean you discount the fact that Castro will score more runs than Swisher, will kill him in steals, and blow him away in average. The deal isn’t horrible, but make sure it fits your team needs.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Tyler – Drew Stubbs is what he is. Look at the numbers.
Last year: .255-22-77-91-30, 33% K-rate
Pace 2011: .251-21-59-102-42, 34% K-rate
You shouldn’t have traded for him if his performance this year has you concerned – it’s better than last year actually.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Ty – I’m trying to move Michael Morse for a pitcher and looking to target Scott Baker, Daniel Hudson or Kuroda.
First off, until we get a certain call on Baker’s arm, I’d remove him from this list.
Second, Kuroda has been what he always is – consolid. He could be traded and that could effect his value as Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch – and facing the Padres/Giants also helps.
Hudson has a strong arm. His K/BB of 3.52 is excellent, and his Gb/Fb has gone up to 1.12, a nice sign given his home yard.
All three arms are solid, but with the way Morse is hitting you might be able to do even better.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Craig N – NL-only Keeper deal: Beltran Bay C Pena Karstens and C Coghlan for Votto and J Taillon
Multiple issues.
1- What if Beltran is traded to the AL this year? What if he signs there next year to DH cause of knees?
2- Who are the three players you will have to drop to even out the 5-for-2 deal?
3- Karstens is NOT this pitcher. His production will suffer.
4- Bay is hot of late, but he has like 12 homers in 155 games as a Met.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Don – Trout or Heyward in a Keeper league with OBP.
Really tough call. I’d go Heyward. Trout does have the speed advantage, but we all know Heyward is an immense talent. Plus, Howard is an immense talent who always gets on base: .446 at AA, .462 at AAA, .393 in majors last three years.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Jake – Tulo or AGone in a keeper league?
Tulo.
1- First base has a good 7-8 or elite options. Shortstop, what, two?
2- AGone isn’t this good. He’s a career .290 hitter batting .348. The park and lineup change certainly could boost his career number, but there’s no way to explain an .080 point leap in his BABIP when he has a career low line drive rate and is hitting more grounders than ever before.
Take Tulo.
By Jon on Jul 7, 2011
Ray,
I am in a 10 team 5×5 mix and my SS is Jose Reyes and now that he looks to be out for 3 weeks I am scrambling to find a replacement. My backup plan was Jed Lowrie early in the season and of course that didn’t work out either. I am looking at the waiver wire for replacements and seeing the likes of Maicer Izturis, Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, Alex Casilla, Marco Scutaro, Jason Bartlett, and Emilio Bonifacio. Right now I am leaning toward Bonifacio and Bartlett simply to replace some of the stolen base production. Any advice on this one?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Jon – I’d move on from Lowrie totally if you are still rostering him. With him out, and Reyes likely down 3 weeks, I’d say you add Furcal. He’s a boom or bust choice given his own injury history, but he has some significant upside if he can stay healthy. Casilla/Bartlett are a serviceable options, but I’d hope that Furcal can stay healthy and give you a little bit of everything.
By Craig N on Jul 7, 2011
Hello Ray-
NL Only deal offered from a dumping team C Pena $22, $C Beltran $21, Jason Bay $24, Karstens $5,Coghlan $5 for J Votto $15, Bogusevic $5, Duda $11 and Taillon (ML)……all can be kept at same price next year except Coghlan he is in FA year…..NL Only 5×5….if Beltran gets dealt to AL, he can be kept for remainder of 2011 and then must be released by me….
I’m not viewing any of these guys as keepers, except for the two I’d be giving up in Votto and Taillon (who I took with first overall ML pick this year. Some other minor leaguers were already kept on rosters)
By Adam on Jul 7, 2011
Hey Ray, were in a H2H league. We skew our league payouts to award the reg season more than the playoffs as its more of a true champ. A bunch of teams want to make a change to pay ALL of the pot to the league payoff winners. I am arguing and losing thus far saying 22 weeks of work should not be undone with one fluke week. I have always done a H2H league but am considering changing to Roto. Thoughts? Is that a huge deal? I am a little scared but it would really reward a true champ rather than the mess that is getting purposed. I guess Im asking are there any cons to a roto league and should I be scared about joining one?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Adam – Head 2 Head stinks.
How you can come out with the most points in 26 weeks but finish in 4th cause you lost the playoffs = TERRIBLE.
Baseball is about 162 games. Its the longest season in sports. Why chop it up to segments to make it more like other sports? There’s no way it makes sense that you can lead 85% of the season but then fail to win your league cause you had a bad final three weeks even though you still won based on the entire season. I hate this approach.
Roto is the ONLY way to go. leave that h2h junk for football, where I would argue, it’s still a bad option.
By Jason on Jul 7, 2011
Ray:
Love what you do… keep this up!
I’m in a 12-team H2H (I know, ugh) mixed league, and I’m sitting dead last. I’m looking to maybe get some keepers in line for the future, as we get 4 keepers with a 4-year cap. Our keepers will be placed in the round prior to where they were drafted this year (the rounds in parentheses are where the guys will be kept next year)…
I have Votto (1st) and Michael Young (5th), and a guy is offering me A. Soriano (17th), K. Johnson (8th), Peavy (17th) and Strasburg (13th). Is that too much?
Here are my other potential keeper options:
Heyward (3rd)
J. Morneau (4th)
Scherzer (7th)
N. walker (13th)
C. Lewis (14th)
Kendrick (15th)
What about Michael Young for Strasy straight up?
By Adam on Jul 7, 2011
Thanks Ray. When setting up a Roto league do you put a max on innings pitched or games played? I appreciate the help.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Adam – All depends on how many pitchers you are going to have active. If you are going to go with nine pitchers, I’d say set it so you have to throw 750 innings with a cap of about 1400. Some leagues lower that number down to like 1250 or up it to 1600, and others don’t even set it at all. Really depends on how much movement you want in your league.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
Jason – Thanks for the props buddy.
Peavy is boring. Johnson won’t cost an 8th next year. Soriano in the 17th, ho hum. Those guys are total throw in’s since they wont be kept.
So does it make sense to give up Votto/Young for Strasburg? I’m gonna say no. Strasburg would be a better value based on round, but Votto is safer, a lock really, and there are still concerns about Stasburg’s mechanics that make me a bit nervous.
By jb (not JB) on Jul 7, 2011
A couple of questions if you would sir.
5×5 10 team Roto with 5 keepers. 4 are time limited keepers Franchise/2 yr/1 yr
Would you trade Agon for Pujols?
Would Rickie Weeks be keeper type material given the league type?
thanks, I really appreciate your opin.
Boston Bruins Stanley Cup Champions
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
jb (not JB) – Trade Agone for Pujols.
I would do that deal. It’s a personal preference though. I see better avg for pujols and more steals in 2012 etc., so slightly better value.
Rickie Weeks is keeper material in 10 team with five keepers. Would depend on who you had on your roster, but an argument for him as a top-50 player is certainly possible.
San Jose Sharks – continual underachievers.
By jb (not JB) on Jul 7, 2011
re: Pujols What about his shoulder or elbow. Isn’t it said that he will be a TJ candidate sometime in his career?
thanks
By david on Jul 7, 2011
hi, ray. 12 team mixed 6×6 weekly head-to-head. the sixth pitching category is losses. i’m loaded at RP, and i can trade ryan madson or chris perez or andrew bailey for an SP. who would you give up? and which of these pitchers would you want in return (if any): beachy, jurrens, anabel sanchez or ryan dempster. thanks.
also, i know you hate head-to-head. but isn’t that magic-in-a-bottle playoff run part of what makes sports great? as long as fb leagues are rewarding regular season success, why not embrace the playoffs and head-to-head which bring their own strategic needs for winning? success during the long slog of a season is, of course, important. but do you really want to support a system that would essentially make the seattle mariners the 2001 world series champs?
i think i just asked at least 5 questions, sorry for the overload.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
jb – they’ve been saying that Pujols will need TJ surgery for years. I wouldn’t worry about that at all.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 7, 2011
David – Madson would be best to deal, though he’s likely to bring the least in return. Bastardo pitching well, and Lidge getting close.
Of the hurlers you mentioned, try to get, in order, Sanchez, Dempster, Beachy.
H2H is a waste. Speaking personally, I was in a football league last year. I ended the year in 4th place despite leading the league in points. My team was the best in points, but finished fourth. How does that make any sense?
What happens if you have a team, and Miguel Cabrera breaks his leg in August and misses Sept.? What if that same team loses Jordan Zimmerman for Sept. cause the Nats shut him down? That team might be in 1st place through 22 weeks, and still finish the year with the most point, but it’s gonna stink in weeks 23-26 = you lose in the playoffs despite having a great team if you look at the season numbers.
By Jim on Jul 8, 2011
Ray,
I’m sure you’re on this for an upcoming article but wanted to check and see what hitters/pitchers are 2nd half performers. May be some good insight for possible trades. Thanks!
Jim
By Ray Flowers on Jul 8, 2011
Jim – I’ll answer your question in my article today.
By Tom on Jul 8, 2011
Ray, usually I relegate myself exclusively to Ogando, haha, but I’ll branch out here.
Adrian Gonzalez can’t be looked at regarding his career numbers. He must only be looked at with his career AWAY numbers. SD is a death-trap and is now completely gone from the equation. His career away average is .305. Also, hitting in a better lineup has/will give him even more “good” pitches to hit. What’s setting him apart from other years, so far, is the babip he’s driving from GB and FB (not LD). His career babip from GB is .206 (.261 this year). His career babip from FB is .188 (.321 this year). One might think Fenway is helping the FB, while San Diego probably decreased his FB rates. But the other stuff would regress. Let’s look at another slow, power lefty on Boston, David Ortiz. His career away avg is .262. At Fenway, it’s .308. Getting back to Agonz, if we adjust the babip per batted ball type to just above career norms…and assume current bb profile…he should be hitting about .305. If we adjust it to a 21% LD and 40% FB rate, it should be .325. My guess is he’ll settle around .315-.320 or so going forward. He’s been getting very lucky with GB and FB rates, but maybe there is a reason…and we shouldn’t be discounting it. But even with the discount, he’s still arguably a top 5 hitter (especially given the lineup. My prorated expectation going forward is 118-38-138-.318. Love the 8′s!
By chris on Jul 8, 2011
Ray,
In a H2H, 12-team league, we start 3 OF and I have Pence, Morse, Boesch, Prado.
We start 4 SP and I have Cain, Haren, Carpenter, Beachy, Baker, Bedard, Niese, Norris, and Ervin Santana. For 2 RP I use Stauffer, Narveson, Humber, or Luebke but can move them to SP.
For offense I have Texiera, Espinosa, A. Cabrera, Longoria, Soto, Hafner.
Prado and Morse add insurance for 1B/2B/3B.
Should I trade SP for OF? Or add Ludwick, Markakis, or Brantley from waivers? Or stand pat?
If trading SP for OF, what’s a fair target.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 8, 2011
Tom – Good analysis. I think we agree in the main on this one. I think I said .310 for AGone’s average this season when asked (I think it was on the air on Thursday) that’s like 2/3 hits diff than your projection for him, so we’re pretty much dead on there.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 8, 2011
Chris – How can you be in a 12 team lg. where Nick Markakis is on waivers? Dude is hitting .356 over his last 33 games. Don’t know why you wouldn’t just add him off waivers and role with that.
By david on Jul 9, 2011
hey ray. 12 team mixed weekly head to head. 6x 6. 6th categories are K’s for batters and losses for pitchers. HR’s R’s and rbi are my strongest catgories. SBs and W’s for pitchers are my weakest. i can trade granderson and cahill (although he may ask for masterson instead) for kinsler and sabathia. i have zobrist at 2nd now, but i can move him to OF. granderson has been a monster for me (minus the K’s), but he’s gotta fade some the 2nd half. does he fade enough to make this a good deal for me? even if i have to give up masterson instead of cahill?
also, i know you watch a lot of giants baseball. does it seem like vogelsong is coming down to earth a bit? if so, how far down does he fall do you think?
By Ryan on Jul 9, 2011
Good Saturday morning to you Ray, I have seen news reports that Brandon Allen may be called up by the D’backs to play 1st base (with the Miranda/Nady project failing miserably). Would you waive either Ian Stewart or Mike Cameron (NL only league) to pick him up? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 9, 2011
David – Granderson/Cahill for Kinlser/Sabathia
Since your league counts Ks, Granderson’s value is diminished since he strikes out more than once every four ABs. He’s also hitting just .271 so he’s not going to help you there. I say do this deal. Kinsler has struggled, but he’s hitting .311 with five homers, 8 RBI, 6 SBs and 18 runs the past three weeks, and he’s on pace to go 20/30 with 110 runs from second base. Plus, Sabathia blows doors on Cahill or Masterson.
Vogelsong has zero chance to keep this up. No chance. His K/9, BB/9, GB/FB are all league average. His 84% LOB percentage is simply not sustainable. His ERA will go up at least a run the rest of the way, could easily get to 3.50, so be careful with him.
I also write a Giants blog here – http://www.rotoinfo.com/giants
By Ray Flowers on Jul 9, 2011
Ryan – you used the right word here – may.
Allen could be called up to play first base, but so good Goldschmidt. It’s totally up in the air.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2011/07/08/20110708arizona-diamondbacks-kevin-towers-rotation-options.html
I don’t know your roster, so it’s hard to say for sure. Stewart though, just can’t see things working out with the Rockies. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they trade him actually. Hopefully it wouldn’t be to an AL club. Cameron should play a lot, at least until Coghlan is back.
I’d keep Cameron, but I’m not overly confident in that call right now.
By Joel on Jul 9, 2011
Ray:
both Mitch Moreland and Pedro Alverez are on my wire. are either or both superior to mark Ellis for an IF spot? if both, which should I cut Ellis for? THANKS!
By Terry on Jul 9, 2011
Ray – Would love a piece on Jose Bautista who has hit 30 homeruns before the All Star break. Jose has the Bluejays record before the break held by George Bell (29). It took Bautista 377 games as a Jay to reach 100 homers. Fred McGriff did it in 437 games and it took Joe Carter 475 games. For those asking, it took Carlos Delgado 506 games as a Jay to reach the 100 homer mark. Last MLB player to have 30 homers by the all-star break? Alex Rodriguez in 2007. A-Rod finished the 2007 seasonm with 54 homers. He is for “Real”. Ray – are you still a “Hater”?
Fast Strike
By Ray Flowers on Jul 10, 2011
Joel – Mark Ellis is solid, but there is no real “upside” there. Moreland is solid, but he too is pretty boring in a mixed league.
Personally, I’d take a shot on Alvarez. He’s the biggest risk of the group, but he’s also capable of hitting 15 homers with 50 RBI in the second half.
http://twitter.com/BaseballGuys/status/90100655817105408
By Ray Flowers on Jul 10, 2011
Terry – I talk about Bautista on a daily bases, you know that if you listen to the show.
I was never a “hater.” I was just honest and stuck to my guns. He’s been phenominal for a year and a half. Period.
I’ve said it all before, but let’s go through it again.
He’s NEVER hit .265 in a season. How could anyone rightfully say he’d hit .332?
He’s NEVER had a OBP of .380. How could anyone rightfully say he’d have a mark of .468?
He has one season with a SLG over .420. One. So of course he’s over .700 right now.
I could go on and on, but the facts are that he’s doing something that may never have been done in the history of baseball.
I don’t take back I single thing I wrote or said about him — I’d say it all again if I had it to do over. Bautista has simply done something we’ve never seen before.
By Tom on Jul 10, 2011
Terry, Ray is right about all of that…but only assuming the status quo never changed. But alas, it did. There was a change of approach TO the plate. There was a change of approach AT the plate. And these changes lead to a) more FB, b) more pulls (more power and simultaneously bat speed) c) which then lead to more HR d) which lead to more walks. Bautista already demonstrated power and a good eye (walks). Then these changes enhanced those skill sets drastically. And by the increase in power/eye, it lead to him being able to be more selective (swinging “better” at “better” pitches). The confluence of all of this has simply elevated a guy with incredible promise for many years to an all-star level player. Also, consider the fact that he has a career best K% as a result as well. While his babip is .318 (marginally above avg), his actual avg is .332.
The parts that are not necessarily sustainable: babip on GB and HR/FB. His babip on GB is 60 pts above his career avg. And the change in skill set doesn’t really affect that. So if about 38% of his balls in play are knocked down 60pts…he should lose about 23 pts in avg there. And his HR/FB of 28%, even with his adjustments, probably should be between 20 and 25%. So if we call it 23%, then he should lose about 20 pts in avg. That totals about 43 pts in avg which would make him a .290 hitter, realistically. If he goes to 20% in HR/FB, that would make him a .280 hitter. Also, a 20% mark in HR/FB would put him at 44 hr per 162 games at his current walk rate. A 23% would be 50 hr per 162 games.