The Arrival of Mike Trout
July 8th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Mike Trout is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. In fact, he’s even better than that. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Trout is the top prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had less faith in Trout. They listed him #2 (behind Bryce Harper). That’s the same way the folks over at Baseball America had it as well (Harper-Trout).
Clearly those people that are paid to predict future greatness for youngsters all think the same thing – Trout will be a superstar in the big leagues.
The Angels pulled a surprising move by calling up Trout to the big league club because of the hamstring injury suffered by Peter Bourjos Thursday (Bourjos isn’t going to play through the weekend, but a decision to place him on the DL is not a foregone conclusion). You might be asking yourself – why is it surprising that the Angels would call up a prospect who everyone agrees has such a luminous future? The answer is that Trout is just 19 years old (he wont turn 20 for a month). So what are my thoughts on Trout, a kid who is barely old enough to join the armed forces and isn’t legally able to drink alcohol?
THE SKILLS
You don’t end up at the top, or near the top, of every prospect list without an overabundance of skills. Trout is 6’1”, 200 lbs, and he brings elite speed to the table. His power is still developing, but he does have a pretty advanced understanding of the strike zone for a player his age. He’s also roundly given the thumbs up when it comes to his maturity level – he’s not one of these punk kids we see so often.
Trout was hitting .330 with a .422 OBP in the minors this season.
He’d also gone deep nine times with 28 steals in just 74 games played.
In three seasons in the minors Trout owns a slash line of .338/.423/.503.
Toss in 97 steals in just 250 games and you can plainly see why everyone is so high on this kid.
Think Grady Sizemore at his peak, a 20/30 guy who will score a ton of runs, and that’s what Trout will likely be one day. Notice I said one day and not today…
THE OUTLOOK
The last teenager in the majors was Justin Upton in 2007 if I’m not mistaken. As wonderful a player as Upton is, he hit only .221 in 140 at-bats that year. It’s just not that easy to make the jump from the minors to the majors. It’s also not easy to make the move when you have only 74 games under your belt above Single-A ball. Mix in the fact that Trout hasn’t even been on Earth for two decades yet, and the road is likely to be bumpy. If Trout hits the ground running, I decided to leave out some lame joke about a stream or river, he could stick with the Angels. However, if he struggles at all the club will not hesitate to send him back to the minors. Also, if Bourjos doesn’t need a DL stint, the team would likely turn the starting spot back over to him since they are pleased with his bat and feel that he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.
Keeper Leagues: Fall all over yourself to add Trout.
AL-only League: Spend that FAAB money liberally.
Mix Leagues: It’s a crap shoot. Don’t go all in, but if you have a roster spot feel free to add the mega talent.
Now, a mailbag question.
I’m sure you’re on this for an upcoming article but wanted to check and see what hitters/pitchers are 2nd half performers? May be some good insight for possible trades.
– Jim
I will be giving my BUY/SELL thoughts on players next week. However, I don’t put much into ‘this guy is really good in the second half’ stuff. It’s so random. Here is a an example.
Someone might be considered to be a 2nd half hitter because of a .300 batting average. However, if you actually look at his second half performances maybe he’s hit .375, .225, .335 and .265 the past four years. Overall he’s a .300 hitter in the second half, but his performances have been all over the map if you go year by year. Basically saying first/second half is just as random as saying July/August. They are just random points to start analyzing the data. Remember that before you make a deal for a guy who is a “second half player.”
By Ray Flowers
Tags: 2nd half players, Angels, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Peter Bourjos, Prospects
By Jackson on Jul 8, 2011
I’m in a 12 team mixed h2h I have 2 3rd basemen A-rod and Sandoval. I have been using sandoval in my utility spot. Would you sell high on Panda or keep rollin him?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 8, 2011
Jackson – Sandoval has an 18 game hitting streak, and he’s now batting over .300 on the year. He should continue to be that type of hitter. Since you have ARod you don’t have to hold on to Pablo if you don’t have a corner infield spot. At same time, the Kung Fu Panda is this good a hitter.
By Jim Belcik on Jul 8, 2011
Ray, Thanks for the article on Trout. I have never heard of him untill now. Thanks for keeping us posted.
By Nick on Jul 8, 2011
Scott Baker was dropped in my league. I could use a pitcher. Should I pick him up immediately and hope he is healthy?
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 8, 2011
Nick – Really would help if I knew who you were dropping, how deep your league is – things like that.
In theory Baker is a fine addition in pretty much any league. There are some concerns with his elbow, though it sounds like he should be back in action shortly after the All-Star break, though he likely won’t be allowed to throw until then, so the prognosis with him is still a bit up in the air.
By Dick on Jul 9, 2011
Like your thoughts on Trout. I’ve had him on my roster since early last year in a dynasty league, so I’m looking forward to see how he performs in his first taste of big league pitching.
I do have a question: I have Lind, Hosmer, Belt and Ike Davis (DL), and Kinsler and Beckham at 2B. We start one of each position, but also U and DH. My question is, would it be a good thing to attempt to trade Belt for Ackley? I’ve held onto Beckham hoping he’ll come around, but patience only lasts so long. Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jul 9, 2011
Dick – Beckham continues to be a huge disappointment, though to be fair, everyone, well everyone besides me, expressed concerns about him even when he was tearing it up as a rookie. He’ll be a solid major leaguer, but I fear stardom is never going to come.
Belt for Ackley – I’d do it. Belt is going to play 1B or OF, and with all the talent there it’s very hard to stand out. Even if Belt hits .300 with 20 homers, that wouldn’t be much different than Billy Butler, and no one ever seems happy with that guy.
By cameron on Jul 9, 2011
hey ray,
ROTW: seth smith, trumbo, mcgehee, d.lee. who should I add? I need help in the power department. I’m thinking about taking a shot on mcgehee.. what are your thoughts on him?
10 team, mixed.
thanks.
By Dave on Jul 9, 2011
Hi Ray. last month I dropped Nolasco when he had a rough stretch. I picked up Zimmerman. now I am hearing that Zimmerman is on a innings count and may have some starts skipped. think I should be picking up Nolasco and dropping Zimmerman ? thanks Ray !
By Joel on Jul 10, 2011
another question, on a trade:
I have 4 closers (Marmol, Paps, Street and farnsworth) in my 6×6 h2h league. If you were me, wld u make either of these 2 trades: Starlin Castro and Marmol for either 1) Tulo or 2)hanley? or is that too much to give? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 10, 2011
Cameron – Honestly, in a 10 team lg you’re likely going to be better off swinging a deal. None of the names you mentioned – Smith, Trubmo, McGee, Lee – should be starting in a 10 teamer. If your goal is to add power, I’d say Trumbo. He has four homers though the last three weeks, so it’s not like he’s killing it there. Not a huge fan of McGee, though it’s nice to see him realize that the goal is to actually hit the ball with the bat.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 10, 2011
Dave – I’ve written about Zimmerman, and we’ve talked about him on the radio show for a good month now in regards to the innings pitched limit. He’s likely to make about 7-8 starts the rest of the way. That’s it. Everyone knows it so you can’t get anything for him in a deal, so just ride him until his season is over and then make a move.
As for Nolasco, he should never have been dropped. He’s allowed two runs in three games, and like I have said and written probably 75 times since January, Nolasco is one of my favs because of his skill. What he’s going right now shouldn’t be a surprise – it’s what I thought he would do all along.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 10, 2011
Joel – I’d feel much safer adding Tulo over HanRam. I’m not saying it’s an open/shut case in terms of Tulo being a better play the rest of the way, but with the up and down from HanRam there is risk (though the quad issue with Tulo adds another level of intrigue doesn’t it?).
Since you have four closers you can deal one. Castro/Marmol for Tulo is a risk that I would take. Could you swap out Marmol for Farnsworth though?
By Adam on Jul 11, 2011
Longoria or Cargo in a keeper league. count OBP and total bases. I have Bautista at 3rd H2H
By Thomas on Jul 11, 2011
H2H keeper league. Give Heyward, Victorino, Cahill Get Clippard Cano Kuroda. Counts On Base and Holds. I could only Keep Heyward or victorino so would like to upgrade to better keeper and need 2b help
By Ray Flowers on Jul 11, 2011
Thomas – Clippard has been great in holds this year, and he is a strong hurler. A little concern about his heavy workload though. Kuroda is solid, but he’s already 36 years old so his keeper value is minimal.
So, would I give up Heyward/Victorino/Cahill for Cano/Kuroda/Clippard. Not a chance.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 11, 2011
Adam – I’d prefer Cargo over Longoria in a keeper league. My reasoning is that Cargo helps across the board. Longoria is probably safer though, and he plays third base which is obviously a major issue, but Longo just doesn’t have the ceiling of Cargo.