Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Outfielders
July 13th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
A few days ago I posted my Buy Low options for the infield. Today, I continue my journey by moving on to the outfield where I’ll suggest purchasing guys which appears to be on their last legs but actually may not be.
Carl Crawford: .243-6-31-33-8 in 263 ABs
I’m going down with the ship. Back in January I championed Crawford in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo where I pointed out that in six of the past seven years Crawford was in the top-15 amongst all hitters in the fantasy game. The only time he missed was 2008 when he was injured. Clearly he has no shot of reaching that level in 2011, but he should be back on the field within a week (hamstring) with history taunting us. Will you bite with the expectation that Crawford will return to being the disruptive force he has always been, or are you going to wallow in your wet socks and expect him to struggle like he did at the start of the year?
Jason Heyward: .226-9-22-31-5 in 230 ABs
Heyward has been one of the biggest disappointments in the game this season, and I’ve heard of people in 12 team leagues who have dealt him for players like Josh Willingham and Darwin Barney, or flat out released him. I certainly hope you weren’t one of those people. Heyward has been called out by the team and his teammates for being “soft” which has led to many in the fantasy game questioning his career path. Don’t be one of those people. I continue to say it, but let me repeat it – the young man, he’s just 21, has Hall of Fame talent. I’ll take a chance on skills like this anytime.
Alex Rios: .213-6-21-41-6 in 320 ABs
Ozzie Guillen has show remarkable patience with Rios be it because he is stubborn, or because he is looking at the facts. (1) Rios has hit at least 15 homers with 71 RBI, 63 runs and 15 steals each of the past five years. Only he and Bobby Abreu have done that. I’m NOT saying he gets there this season, but you don’t just throw out 5-straight seasons like that when a guy is only 31 years old. (2) His BB/K rate is better than his career average (0.62 to 0.40). His GB/FB ratio of 1.15 is an exact match for his career mark. His 17.4 percent LD-rate is down from his career level but it would still be a three year high. His BABIP is only .221, some .088 points below his career mark. Only once in his career did he finish a season below .300 and that was .273 in 2009. His HR/F mark is 5.5 and that would be a career low. Add that all up and a rebound certainly seems possible for a player who should still be in his prime.
Ichiro Suzuki: .270-1-23-46-23 in 374 ABs
In 10 seasons Ichiro has never failed to hit .300 with 200 hits and 25 steals. He’s gonna blow past the steals mark yet again, but the other two categories are in doubt (he is on pace for 180 hits). Ichiro has hit .323 in the second half in his career, and he’s going to need a push like that to get to .300. Given that he working on his best BB/K mark since 2002, he should have a shot. His current line drive rate is also a three year high, and he’s not hitting the ball in the air at all which should help (his fly ball rate would be his second worst, or in this case best, mark). A .354 BABIP producer, he’s only had one season in his career under .333. You think that his current.293 mark is gonna stay that low even as his age advances?
Jason Werth: .215-10-31-40-11 in 326 ABs
When you sign a deal that well in excess of $100 million dollar expectations will follow. Has he lived up to those expectations? The answer is a resounding no. He’s got a career worst LD-rate (16.0 percent), a career worst GB-rate (45.2 percent), a five year worst in the HR/F category (10.6 percent) and a career worst BABIP (.258). The two numbers really stick out though. Over the past five years Werth has always had a HR/F rate of at least 13.3 percent, and his career mark is 15.5. That’s substantially better than we’ve seen from him so far. Also, his BABIP is .323 in his career and has never been under .304 in a season. You really think he’s gonna undershoot that by .050 points this season? Werth is also on pace to produce 18 homers, 56 RBI, 72 runs and 20 steals this season. While that’s a far fry from his 2010 effort (27-85-106-13), considering that he can’t really perform any worse than he currently is has got to leave some hope that better days lay ahead, doesn’t it?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Rios, Buy Low, Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, Jayson Heyward, Jayson Werth
By Mark C. on Jul 13, 2011
Ray – After reading your comments about Rios, who do you like better going forward? Rios or Vernon Wells?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 13, 2011
Mark C – I’d go Rios over Wells. Reason is upside. Wells is a .270-25 type guy. Rios is a .270-20 type guy, but he has the huge upside in the steals column compared to Wells. Both have struggled, Wells has been better of late no doubt, but I’d still take the shot with Rios.
By Nick on Jul 13, 2011
Ray – I was offered Greinke and Phillips for Axford and King Felix.
I have plenty of closers. Do you like the trade?
Thanks.
By Paul on Jul 13, 2011
Ray, do you remember the Crawford/A-Gone conversation in the off season? I know the season isn’t over but wasn’t A-Gone an All-Star? Where is Crawford?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 13, 2011
Nick – With the addition of KRod, Axford’s value is up in the air right now (I still think he gets the majority of the save chances). King Felix is obviously a beast.
Greinke’s K and K/BB are elite, don’t worry about his ERA, it simply has to come down. He’s no King Felix, but he’s not a bad fall back option at all.
Phillips is an elite level 2B. I don’t know who you are running out there, but he’s almost certainly an improvement.
Since you have plenty of closers, make the deal.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 13, 2011
Paul – Boy, nice guy much?
Of course I remember the Crawford vs. AGone comparison from the preseason. Was I wrong? Completely. However, I always find it fascinating when people bag on you for your mistakes and not your successes.
What about Ryan Braun #3 overall?
How about Joel Hanrahan #10 amongst closers when most didn’t have him in their top-20?
What about James Shields at #24 amongst SPs when some didn’t even have him in their top-50?
You do this long enough, you say/write enough things, you’re bound to be wrong. I’d put my track record up against anyone… no one is perfect.
By Mike on Jul 14, 2011
Do you like Ichiro better than Michael Bourn the rest of the way?
I could move Bourn in a deal for Ichiro and pitching help.
By El Burro on Jul 14, 2011
Ray – 14 team mixed league, deep 30 man rosters. 6×6 scoring (ops) for offense.
Just lost ARod for 4-6 wks and curious who you like better of these guys as most viable 3B replacement:
Eduardo Nunez
Ian Stewart
Mike Moustakas
Thx
By Ray Flowers on Jul 14, 2011
Mike – As much as I like Ichiro and think he will have a solid second half, there’s no way I could take him right now over Bourn. Ichiro is stealing plenty of bases, but Bourn is more likely to keep that up which should help negate any difference between the two in batting average, and the Mariners just aren’t knockin in Ichiro (he has 46 runs to 60 for Bourn).
By Ray Flowers on Jul 14, 2011
El Burro – Stewart doesn’t have a lock on playing time, so I’d avoid him. Moustakas has strong skills, but his performance to this point has been sorely lacking. Hate to say it, but if ARod was out, I’d go with Nunez. At least you get some speed.
By El Burro on Jul 14, 2011
Thx, ray. My read was the same. Appreciate it
By Jim on Jul 14, 2011
2 trade thoughts?
1) Lester for Haren
2) Lester/Cruz for Shields/Ellsbury. Need steals and average. 4 x 4 AL only keeper league.
Thanks,
Jim
***I’m surprised Shields stats are so good, originally thought about getting David Price, whose stats do not stack up, at least this year!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 14, 2011
Jim – Lester or Haren? I’d rather have the healthy Haren.
Lester/Cruz for Shields/Ellsbury. Need steals and average. 4 x 4 AL only keeper league.
Pretty even deal here. In terms of this year, clearly you want the Ellsbury side if the weakness is steals. If we are talking long term, keeper style, I’d go for Lester/Cruz.
By SF on Jul 14, 2011
Hey Ray,
Thanks for all your help so far this year and enjoy reading the articles. I’m in a 10 team mix roto 5×5 and in need of HR’s and RBI’s.
Been offered Adam Lind for Pablo Sandoval and Rajia Davis (bench player). I’m in first in steals and have other options at 1st and 3rd.
Thanks Ray
By Ray Flowers on Jul 14, 2011
SF – Glad I have been of some help this year.
Adam Lind for Pablo Sandoval and Rajai Davis.
Even though you are first in steals, I would not do this deal. Davis has been a better performer late in the season, and even though I said it’s not the be all end all the other day, its something to consider here. Plus, his wheels could generate a lot of fantasy value. Sandoval is back to hitting well, and though he may not match Lind, it will certainly be close enough that the addition of Davis means you are giving up the more valuable side of this deal. Plus, with 3B so thin, Pablo’s value is increased.
By Paul on Jul 14, 2011
Apologies Ray. If I came off too hard.
I only remember the Crawford/Gonzo conversation because it was a direct conversation between us and most likely the ONE that I disagreed with you.
Even though I haven’t been to your blog in quite sometime (weird coincidence that that Crawford was a topic when I did) I respect what you do with providing the fantasy community with free fantasy advise. I myself woulnt take it and that isn’t a knock on you, I have my own opinions on players & I dont let others direct those opinions for me.
However I do like to read Baseball & Football, mostly Baseball, when I can these days.
Why then if I have my own opinions?
If I can take one piece from an article and learn something new, its worth reading. That’s why I keep coming back here, Ray provides detailed info! That you can’t find everywhere!
From time to time I may disagree with you Ray, but I 100% appreciate the product you put out there. I learned more here then I did in high school.
How fun would fantasy sports or sports in general be if we all rooted for the same team and had the same opinions?
I know I be board!
Paul
By JB on Jul 15, 2011
Ray: Matt Joyce just hit the waiver wire in my league. He’s been cold the last 30 days, but I’m wondering if he’s worth a pickup. I just picked up Thames on your recommendation (dropped Ludwick for him but am going to keep an eye on where Ludwick might land). The rest of my OF is Bautista, Ellsbury, Alex Gordon and Seth Smith. I’ve been riding Bonifacio’s streak the last few weeks in my UT spot, so I could drop him (you made pretty clear yesterday afternoon what you think of him as a hitter). I could also drop Hosmer since I have him on the bench (and I’m playing A-Gonz and Morse). You may answer my Joyce question later today in your new ROTW rankings, but would you pick up Joyce for the second half, and if so who would you drop – Bonifacio or Hosmer? Many thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Paul – Thanks for the kind words. Glad you can glean something from my work. I do the best I can to provide the best advice I can, so its good to know that my hard work is at least respected.
By jb (not JB) on Jul 18, 2011
Hi Ray, 5×5 10 team Roto 5 time limited keepers
Considering keeping Tulo,Cruz,Weaver,AGon,Zimmerman I am out of the running and it’s “position for next year time” in the league. I have recently picked up Bryce Harper,Strasburg, and Jason Heyward just to have control while I evaluate. Should I really be considering keeping any of them over my stated keepers? Thanks and I hope you had a Happy Carmageddon.
Boston Bruins Stanley Cup Champions (the cup is missing)
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
jb (not JB) – You didn’t say it, but seems like you keep five guys.
Harper, Strasburg and Heyward could all be stars, but I have a hard time thinking any of them will be worthy of keeping next year over your five players. You could always keep Strasburg over Zimmerman if you want to keep a 2nd arm, but in a 10 teamer I certainly don’t think you have to do that.
By Joel on Jul 18, 2011
Ray, picked up javy Vazquez thos morning — thanks. I’m now leaning toward grabbing another pitcher for the rotw. Choices are: Niemann, Leake, Maholm, james McDonald.. For some reason, I’m leaning Niemann. what say you?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Joel – Best arm belongs to McDonald. Niemann great of late, but not elite skills, and the Ks aren’t gonna continue.
With all the names your throwing out there, I really hope your in a 15 team league.
By matt on Jul 18, 2011
Ray,do you think Leo Nunez will be traded? And if so, will he be a solid closer still somewhere else? Also, just curious, but how many wins each do you think arrieta and hellickson will get by the end of the year? thanks for your time
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Matt – I think Nunez will be traded which is why I dropped him on my list: http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ROTW-PIT-July18-2011-PdfU.pdf
I don’t have a good feeling about him if he does get dealt. I’d say its 50/50 that he ends up being moved to a spot where he ends up serving as a setup man.
Wins = Simply cannot predict them. Pick the pitcher with the best skills, really only way you can look at it. I’d go Hellickson over Arrieta. Easy call for me.
By matt on Jul 18, 2011
Ray, what do you think about this David Huff that just won his first start with no runs given up? What are your thoughts on him the rest of the way?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Matt – Huff had a 5.84 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 4.41 K/9, 0.85 GB/FB ratio in 208 innings. No way in the world just one start overcomes that. Even at Triple-A this year he has 4.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5.65 K/9. Simply put, he’s AL only depth option – at best.