Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Pitchers
July 14th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
In PART III of my three part look at players to Buy Low on, I’ll wrap up things by taking a look at starting pitchers. Here are five names I would suggest kicking the tires on. Maybe you can buy them at .70 cents on the dollar.
For those of you who missed it, here are the links to my Buy Low articles on Infielders and Outfielders.
Ryan Dempster: 6-6, 5.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
First it was a horrible ERA, and now it’s back woes that have conspired to keep the value of Dempster down. Still, the ERA continues to come down. It was at 6.91 nine starts ago. It should continue to come tumble as his xFIP suggests it will. In fact, his current xFIP of 3.43 would be a career best while his FIP is 3.92, right in line with his marks the last two years (3.87 and 3.99). Dempster also has a K/9 rate of 8.25, an amongst pitchers who have thrown 95 innings this year, that’s 19th best in baseball. His BABIP also figures to come down. It’s currently at .326 after 7-straight years under .313. It also appears possible that he could be dealt to another club, and that certainly wouldn’t harm his outlook at all.
Ubaldo Jimenez: 4-8, 4.14 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 104.1 IP
On May 28th his ERA was 5.86. Since then he’s made eight starts with an ERA of 2.25. As a result of his recent run, he has allowed two or fewer runs in six of those eight games, his ERA is slowly moving back to the realm of the respectable. Even more telling with his work of late is the fact that he’s walked just 11 batters in those eight starts. As a result of that, and this is bound to surprise most, he’s current K/9 rate (8.19) and BB/9 rate (3.54) are better than his career averages (8.11 and 3.90), as is his FIP (3.46 compared to 3.57). Oh, and his xFIP is 3.59. Know what it was last year? Try 3.60. Is he “back?” Sure seems that way to me, though don’t expect a run to equal what he did in the first half last year.
Ted Lilly: 6-9, 4.79 ERA, 78 Ks, 1.29 WHIP in 107 IP
This is the one guy on this list that can be had on the cheap (he might even be on waivers in your league). I’ll be the first to admit that there isn’t considerable upside to be mined here, but even with his poor work this year he still has a better WHIP than Chris Carpenter (1.30), Matt Garza (1.34) and Madison Bumgarner (1.34). Lilly is apt to let you down, he’s allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts, but over his last 10 starts the other seven times he has taken the hill have results in five games of two or fewer earned runs allowed. He hasn’t pitched appreciably different than he has the past three years (here are his xFIP numbers – 3.90, 3.95 and 3.99 this year), and his 3.55 K/BB ratio is a very strong number (it’s 13th in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 95 innings pitched). There are worse options for your final starting spot in mixed leagues.
Ervin Santana: 4-8, 3.89 ERA, 106 Ks, 1.24 WHIP in 125 IP
This one is all about record. Most people, for whatever reason, stick to the old adage that you can judge a pitcher by his win-loss record. Even those that don’t buy into this line of thought are still going to have a hard time getting past his 4-8 record. What you should see though is an ERA that is better than his career mark (4.34), a WHIP that is better than his career mark (1.31), a K/9 rate that is nearly a batter better than his mark the past two years (6.85 compared to 7.63 this year), and a three year low in his walk rate (2.59 per nine). The stuff is there, the results are there, it’s just that his record hasn’t obliged and followed along.
Max Scherzer: 10-4, 4.69 ERA, 96 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
Unlike the others on this list, Scherzer’s numbers look poor while his record looks sharp. There’s no denying that he has been a major letdown this year, but the arm is still dynamic which is why I’d suggest buying low (if you are running guys like Kevin Correia, Jason Hammel and Mike Leake out there, do yourself a favor an add Scherzer). Scherzer has actually improved his walk rate slightly, his 3.07 mark would be a three year low, and his current line drive rate is also slightly below his career 20.0 percent mark (his HR/F ratio is only up 0.4 points as well to 10.7 percent). A few less fly balls would help to even things out a bit, as would a few more Ks (his 7.76 mark is a batter below his 8.78 career level). Will he turn things around in the second half? I honestly don’t know, but I do know that I’ll take the chance on his right wing over others with similarly successful seasons to this point.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Buy Low, Ervin Santana, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Ubalod JImenez
By Ricky S on Jul 14, 2011
Ray,
Funny you wrote this because I was just deciding between Ervin Santana and Dempster. I decided on Ervin Santana because he has 3 gold glove centerfielders playing outfield for him, and as a Cubs fan, I can’t bare to watch them lose game after game with bad defense.
Anyways, I just listen to you on SiriusXM and I know you don’t really like Jon Rauch. I own Javy Guerra. Matt Capps also just got dropped. Will you rank these closers in the order you’d want them: Guerra, Capps, Rauch, Melancon. This way I’ll know if I should drop Guerra to pick up one of these guys.
Thanks
By cameron on Jul 14, 2011
hey ray,
mccutchen/j.upton
who do you want in a 10 tm keeper league and why?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 14, 2011
Ricky S- I’m going to release ROTW rankings for pitchers, probably on Monday. So you can get my whole list then. My thinking now, without all the analysis done: Capps, Guerra, Rauch, Melancon.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 14, 2011
Cameron – mccutchen/j.upton – who do you want in a 10 tm keeper league and why?
That is one tough question, and to be honest, there isn’t a wrong answer.
I’d go McCutchen. A little worried about Upton’s shoulder and health. No such issues with McC.
McCutchen has more upside in steals, though Upton will be a consistent 20 SB threat.
I have a personal preference for McC so I want to say him, but Upton just may have a .320-40-120-120-20 season in him, and McC will not get there.
Either way you win really.
By Chrissy on Jul 14, 2011
Hey Ray- so here is the trade that was sent to me they give me Beltre,Hanley and A.Bailey for G.Sanchez,P.Sandoval and B.J.Upton. Whata ya say? H2H 10-team mixed.
Thanks!
Chrissy
By Rob on Jul 14, 2011
Hi Ray,
Need a MI (getting by with t-wig but want a serious upgrade). Two trades on the table:
1. I give Beachy and Hanrahan and get B. Phillips. Would pick up Putz, A.Bailey or Santos (yes, 10 team)
2. I give Beachy and get Kendrick
My other arms are hamels, shields, gallardo, wandy, gio, Kennedy, nolasco.
Go with #1 and pick up Putz?
By Thomas on Jul 15, 2011
Keeper league H2H with OBP and total bases. I’m giving Longoria getting Hosmer and BJ Upton. I will only be able to keep either Hosmer or Upton and I would keep Hosmer. We can keep forever. Id lose out going in to next year with a downgrade from longoria to Homser but I am in the thick of the race now and could use BJ upton to help me win this year. Pull the trigger?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Chrissy – Beltre,Hanley and A.Bailey for G.Sanchez,P.Sandoval and B.J.Upton
I’d rather have Beltre than Sanchez.
I’d rather have Hanley than Sandoval.
I’d rather have Upton over Bailey. But, that goes away if you need saves on your club.
Deal gives you a ton of talent.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Rob – Putz is likely to miss another week. Team want’s to make sure he can go back to back. At this point, I’d have to favor Bailey over Putz because of health concerns.
Beachy/Hanrahan for Phillips/Bailey
I have no problem with this. Phillips is a big upgrade over Wigginton.
Beachy for Kendrick
No problem with this either. Kendrick also quals. at OF/1B in many leagues. Always nice to add a .300 hitter.
I’d do either deal. Keep it simple and go with the second one.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Thomas – If I was in a keeper lg, I’d keep Upton over Hosmer. Remember, 1B is soooo deep, that it will take an awful lot for Hosmer to be a top-10 option.
Hosmer/Upton for Longoria
Hosmer has little value right now. Upton obviously does, though Longoria does as well, especially with 3B issues all year long.
I don’t think this deal makes a massive difference to you right now unless your OF is weak and you have 3B depth which seems unlikely.
By Tim on Jul 15, 2011
Hey Ray -
Just took a look at your Hitter ROTW rankings and have a couple of questions.
Jorge Posada: Coming around since the bad start. Maybe a PT concern but if you account for the missed interleague ABs, he should only sit against lefties going forward, should work out to about a normal workload. Compare that to a full-time catcher who sits every fifth day and maybe close to normal playing time going forward. Are you concerned he’s just getting old, or that the Yankees will face a lot of lefties rest of the season, or …?
Juan Pierre: Again, looks like he’s coming around. Didn’t make your top 60 outfielders. You concerned he takes a seat?
As always, thanks for your thoughtful advice.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Tim – Pierre was actually #61 on my OF list, so he just missed. Guillen continues have faith in him, though organization wants Viciedo to get a look.
Posada is aging, just worry about that. You could move him up to 12 and I’d have no issue at all, maybe even up to #10 actually and be alright.
By cameron on Jul 15, 2011
hey ray,
thanks for your answer to my last question. i’m hanging onto my mccutchen. here’s an interesting one though with the same owner: tex/j.upton for my hanley. really don’t want to part with hanram, but what do you think of this? thanks. (keeper, 10 tm)
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Cameron – “tex/j.upton for my hanley. really don’t want to part with hanram, but what do you think of this? thanks. (keeper, 10 tm)”
You HAVE to do this deal – immediately. Hit accept on that button as quick as humanly possible.
By Eric on Jul 17, 2011
Gaby Sanchez, Drew, and Greinke for my Pineda and Rollins. I need SP-do you think Greinke will make a comeback?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Eric – Let’s look at the two arms.
Greinke: 11.99 K/9, 2.02 BB/9, xFIP2.13, 1.29 GB/FB
Pineda: 9.00 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, xFIP 3.51, 0.63 GB/FB
In truth, Greinke has actually pitched slightly better than Pineda, even though the ERA doesn’t show it.
I’d do this deal. Plus, there are no worries at all about Greinke having his innings limited late in the year.