HITTERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings
July 15th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
With the All-Star Game in our rear view mirror, everyone wants to know which players will have success in the second half. Never one to shirk my duties to give the people what they want, I’m releasing PART I of my two part look at Rest of the Way Rankings (ROTW).
What you will find in this two-part series are my rankings for players the ROTW. Jose Bautista has arguably been the best hitter in baseball the first half, but does that mean he will be the best hitter the ROTW? I’ll give you my thoughts on Bautista an all the other elite level position players in this entry.
Also be aware that players are only listed at one spot so don’t expect to see Kevin Youkilis listed at first base and third base. He might qualify at both spots, but I’ve only listed him at one spot (third base).
With that, here are my rankings for position players for the Rest of the Way.
HITTERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings
Look for Part II on pitchers in a coming entry.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Jose Bautista, Kevin Youkilis, Rest of the Way, ROTW
By Randy on Jul 15, 2011
Great job on the ROTW rankings. I concur on 95+%. Hey, I was offered Howard & Gardner for Morse & Rios. Keeper league, roto, 12 keepers. I pull the trigger right?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Randy – Thanks for the props. Hope the ROTW rankings help. How dare you not agree with 100% of my positions. j/k
Howard & Gardner for Morse & Rios, Keeper lg.
I love Rios despite the cold half, and Morse at 1B/OF elig is very interesting.
Howard has a huge bat, and Gardner tons of speed. That is the safer side to have here no doubt. Still, I’m a sucker for Rios, and Morse has been pretty darn successful this year. Can’t go wrong, but I’d say go Howard/G if you wanna play it safe, Rios/Morse if you don’t mind take a chance on a duo with slightly more upside.
By Kejenkin on Jul 15, 2011
Ray, was offerred Cabrera/Hanrahan for Verlander\Hamels. Still leaves me with Weaver and Stouffer. Your thoughts? Who’d you pick up as replacements in a 10 team league?
Thanks,
KJ
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Kejenkin – offerred Cabrera/Hanrahan for Verlander\Hamels
I assume that is Miguel Cabrera?
I love Cabrera, the guy is a beast, and Hanrahan has been as good as any closer in baseball.
Still, I can’t say moving those two top-10 arms leaving yourself with Stauffer as your second best arm, I can’t say it’s a good deal for you to make.
By Tom on Jul 15, 2011
Hey Ray,
Nice job with most of the rankings. Hard to get that many right and you’ve done it. Did you incorporate injury potential in or is it on a per game type basis?
Some notes:
-Is Joe Mauer listed?
-Hamilton, since DL, leads mlb in rbi and is a consistent 300+ hitter. His worst 2 months by far (april/may) are gone. Since DL (in 44 games), he’s 31-12-43. I’d have him top 5 OF.
-Bautista, doesn’t he qualify at 3B in all leagues this year?
-Morse should also be OF, I believe
-Aramis Ramirez is likely to be traded and he hasn’t been a good hitter away from wrigley in years.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Tom – Injuries, playing time, potential trades, all of that went into the hopper for the ROTW rankings.
To address your questions.
1- I posted a version without Mauer. Issue has been fixed.
2- You could have Hamilton higher – skills warrant it. However, injuries are ALWAYS an issue. Can’t trust the guy at all.
3/4 – Bautista does qualify at 3B, Morse in OF. But, in the article it explains this – “Also be aware that players are only listed at one spot so don’t expect to see Kevin Youkilis listed at first base and third base.”
4- Aramis will NOT be traded. He has already said he will not allow a deal to happen.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/6294108-573/cubsaramis-ramirez-jeff-baker-try-to-ignore-trade-rumors.html
By Pat on Jul 15, 2011
Offered S Baker for Soria-just lost F-Rod so is it safe(trade risk)
Figure I can cover baker on waiver wire, perhaps-thanks for the help
By Nick on Jul 15, 2011
King Felix for Carl Crawford… fair trade?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Pat – S Baker for Soria
I’m a big fan of Baker, even with his recent elbow woes. Still, I’d take Soria in this deal for sure.
Don’t panic as a KRod owner either. He waived his $17.5 million option for 2011, it’s now a mutual option, so he might end up closing more than we thought when the deal went down.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Nick – King Felix for Carl Crawford… fair trade?
I’m about the biggest Crawford backer that there is. Still, after half a season of terrible work an injury, there’s no way anyone could be as high on CC as they were three months ago (me included).
King Felix has a career best K.9 rate. His BB/9 is at career levels (2.69 this yr, 2.77 career). Ditto his BABIP (.289 this yr, .294 for career). His GB/FB is down, its still 1.54 which is solid. I tend to think that the number will go back up given that he’s never had a season of under 1.77. Basically, he’s been as good as ever.
Give all of that, I can’t in good conscience say this deal is good for you unless you end up with Hernandez.
By Donna on Jul 15, 2011
Ray- After a few starts off the DL Wandy R. is not looking very strong. Ryan Dempster, who you profiled is available. Do I make the swap?
By Luke on Jul 15, 2011
Ray, love the afternoon drive. I’ve got Madsen who just came off he DL and Bastardo who has been the fill gap since he was hurt. Have to drop someone to activate Madsen. Safe to throw back Bastardo even tho he has been lights out? Nervous since i got burned in the whole Lyon/Melancon debacle.
By Bill on Jul 15, 2011
Hey Ray – How long do you think the D-Train’s stop in the majors will last time around?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Donna- Wandy and Dempster are right there neck and neck with one another. I’d say add Dempster and drop someone else. Who are your other hurlers?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Luke – Glad you enjoy the work we do on the radio.
Not only do they have Lidge slowly working his way back, I think the Phils are gonna make a move. Sounds like Bell or Adams from SD is on the way. If that’s the case, Bastardo’s value goes way down. If the deal isn’t struck, I still don’t think Bastardo is gonna get much 9th inning work. If your in a 10 or 12 tm mixed league, I don’t think you have to hold Bastardo. If NL only hold, or 15 tm mixed I’d hang on a while longer if you can.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 15, 2011
Bill – I think it really depends on three main things.
1- Is Volquez every going to figure things out?
2- Will Arroyo or one of the other starters be dealt?
3- Can Dontrelle throw strikes?
I wouldn’t bet on him staying around and effective (i.e. I’d avoid him in mixed leagues), he’s had so much trouble the last few years, but I’m rooting for him.
By Donna on Jul 16, 2011
My pitching squad consists of C. Kershaw, J. Shields, U. Jimenez, G. Gonzalez, J. Chacin, M. Pineda, in addition to Wandy Rodriquez. I switch through T. Stauffer, B. League and C. Perez as my RPs. I only have A Rod and Ty Wigginton as reserves position players on my bench. I could probably drop Wigginton for Dempster instead of Wandy. Its a 10 team H2H league. Thanks Ray!
By Nick on Jul 16, 2011
I’m in a 10 team, head to head league. Thinking about offering Jemile Weeks and Axford for Neal Walker. I win steals and saves every week and have four other closers. He is in last place and needs both categories.
Is this a fair trade?
Thanks as always.
By Ryan on Jul 16, 2011
Ray, any chance Zito keeps his job? When is Sanchez coming back? Also, Bloomquist (one of your faves) is available on the waiver wire and I need to hold onto my steals lead. Would you waive Cameron or Zito to pick him up?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 16, 2011
Donna – Being a 10 tm lg, there are always talented guys in waivers. Given that you are pitcher heavy with little bench help, I wouldn’t suggest dropping a hitter. Looking at your staff it’s really strong. I’d therefore decide between Dempster and Wandy, and I’d roster Wandy, but I wouldn’t fault you for going in the other direction.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 16, 2011
Nick – With KRod in town, Axford’s value is sinking like a stone in water. I think he should still be the guy for the Brewers, but I’m not certain of that at all, and could easily see a split or KRod taking the lead late in the year.
If you have a lot of speed, and can do J. Weeks/Axford for Walker, it’s not the worst trade in the world.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 16, 2011
Ryan – Zito will regress, though I’d continue to run them out there until he does since he has pitched great going back to his time in the minors. The Giants have six starters though. When Sanchez is back, it’s going to be a tough choice. Zito and his history, or the upside of Sanchez. Vogelsong could also fall apart at some point given his track record, but for now the situation is muddled.
Bloomquist isn’t going to play enough to help you unless you re in an NL-only league. He’s go the 10 steals this year, but don’t forget he has only one 20 steal season in nine years in the league. Plus, nine RBI ain’t gonna help you at all. I’d keep Cameron at least until Coghlan is good to go.
By matt on Jul 16, 2011
Ray, should I drop Colon for bruce chen or nick blackburn? I can’t get buerhle till monday.
By richard cochran on Jul 16, 2011
love your work on the fantasy drive. the hour drive home form work is tolerable. just found your web page and looking forward to using it as a tool to guide me from 2nd to a title
By Jeff on Jul 16, 2011
Hey there Ray. I need your help. I am in a 12 team roto league and need help with saves. Nathan is out there but I am not sure if I should pick him up and if I do should I drop Beckett, Blackburn, Bumgarner, Cordero, Dempster, Jurrjens, Masterson, Liriano, Morrow, Sanchez?
By wesley on Jul 17, 2011
I have billy butler as my util in a 10 team roto league. Would you drop butler or bay for sizemore, abreu or tori hunter thanks ray
By Ryan on Jul 17, 2011
Ray, who would close in San Diego if BOTH Bell and Adams are traded? Gregerson, Qualls or someone else? Also, do you like Dunn as the closer in Florida if Nunez is traded?
By dennis on Jul 17, 2011
hi Ray,
Just FYI, Logan Morrison is at 46 and 57 on the hitters ROTW list. You don’t seem to think Dunn will have much of a second half but you alos preach career stats over small sample size. Would you be willing to expound on that?
Thanks as always,
Dennis
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Matt – I have little faith in Colon as you are well aware. Still, the skills he has displayed surpass those of Chen and Blackburn who are nothing but replacement level arms that really have little business being utilized in mixed leagues.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Richard – Glad you enjoy the show my friend, and hopefully the website will step up for you as well allowing you to glean a lot more data to help your team to a championship.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Jeff – In a 12 team league, let Blackburn go and grab Nathan who appears to now be the Twins’ closer.
Blackburn: 3.99 ERA, 10.20 H/9, 13.04 BR/9, 4.68 K/9, 1.85 K/BB
League: 3.89 ERA, 8.64 H/9, 12.10 BR/9, 6.77 K/9, 2.16 K/BB
Blackburn isn’t even a league average arm.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Wesley – in a 10 tm league, none of the guys you mentioned excites me as a UT option.
Butler – Should hit .300 with like 15 homers, but no real upside.
Sizemore hurt his leg today.
Bay tantilizes, but cant keep things goin.
Hunter has been solid, nothing more.
Abreu still gets on base and steals bags, but that’s about it.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Ryan – If Adams and Bell are dealt, I’d said Gregerson would get first shot at closing. He has been injured and hasn’t performed great lately though, so it’s an open question. Ernesto Frieri might also get a look.
I’d say Dunn would be the choice if the Marlins move Nunez at the deadline, but that’s not a confirmed call at this point.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Dennis – Updated the issue with Morrison, thanks for pointing it out.
Dunn = I’ve written about and spoken about him for months now. I can’t explain his struggles, no idea why this is happening. Can’t deny that it is happening though. We can talk sample size, and that would certainly be worthy of looking at since it’s only half a season, but he just hasn’t hit, at all, all year long. I’d be shocked if he was this bad the ROTW, but with the depth of 1B this year, it would be a huge risk to count on him as your starter even in a 15 team mixed lg.
By Chris on Jul 17, 2011
Hey Ray. I saw that you didn’t have Polanco ranked at all.
Are you that worried about his back? He is currently the 8th ranked 3B in my league. I was able to pick up Bonifacio. Any thoughts on him especially with the shortage of 3B right now?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 17, 2011
Chris – I have no idea what kind league you are in if Polanco is in your top-10 at 3B. He’s hit .232 the last 57 games. He has a handful of homers, and just a couple of steals. I know 3B is shallow cause of injuries, but there is no way Polanco should be looked at as a top-10 3B, especially given his injury concerns.
By Nick on Jul 17, 2011
Would you trade King Felix and Madson for Verlander? I already have Walden, Hanrahan, Nathan and Santos.
By Joel on Jul 17, 2011
Ray:
Which one pitcher off waivers tomorrow am — Javy Vazquez, Homer Bailey or Nick Blackburn? I guess I’m leaning vazquez esp vs Padres this week.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Nick - King Felix and Madson for Verlander?
Madson could lose his closing job if Phils add Bell, so his value is in flux (not to mention the injury issues). Still, he’s a good arm.
Would I do this deal? Nothing wrong with it. Verlander isn’t likely to remain this dominant, but he certainly has a better chance at wins that King Felix.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Joel – I’d go Vazquez. It might be a short term fix, and I don’t think that a handful of starts mean he is back, but he’s pitching really well of late.
By jimbo on Jul 18, 2011
Ray,
Have a real dilemma in my fantasy league, Fantasy Sports R Us, it is a 5 year keeper league and the commish allowed a trade of Carl Crawford for Adam Lind and Jeff Francoer…Is this a fair trade? Just dont know what to think do you think it is fair in a 5 year league?
By Jim on Jul 18, 2011
Ray,
Who would keep for AL 4×4 keeper league: Josh Reddick or Luke Scott when he returns?
Thanks,
Jim
***When is your All-Heat team coming out, players that excel in 95+ heat! LOL…
By Ricky S on Jul 18, 2011
Ray,
10 team H2H 5×5. Would you trade McCutchen and Alexei Ramirez for Tulowitzki and Delmon Young? And how close is it?
By JP on Jul 18, 2011
Ray, where would you rank Cuddyer in your 2B ROTW ranks?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Jimbo - “Carl Crawford for Adam Lind and Jeff Francoeur… Is this a fair trade (5 yr keeper)”
I don’t see how you can veto it unless one sides contract length is much longer than the other. In fact, I’m not sure why you think the deal is unfair. Are you saying it’s unfair because Crawford isn’t enough for the other two? I’d still argue that Crawford is the side I want here. Frenchie isn’t a 20/20 threat long term despite what he has done this year, and CC is still under 30, in his prime, and in a great offense.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Jim- Reddick has a lot of a talent and potential, but it’s tough to think that he’ll get enough PT the ROTW to be truly relevant now that Crawford is back. I’d say go Scott, but it’s not like I love making that call with the issues Scott has faced this year.
My all heat team will start with Scott Garrelts, Nolan Ryan and Billy Wagner. j/k
By Ryan on Jul 18, 2011
I was offered MCab\Dempster for Howard\Cain…would you pull the trigger? Im gambling on Dempster turning it around and pitching close to Cain the rest of the way.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Rocky S – McCutchen and Alexei Ramirez for Tulowitzki and Delmon Young
I want McC and Ramirez. I’d argue, persuasively, that Ramirez will at least match Young. As great as Tulo is, he isn’t the dynamic option that McCutchen is. I can’t say it’s a total slam dunk, but since its OF/SS on both sides it’s pretty easy to look at. Do you have faith that Young will be the hitter he was last year? I’m not sold on that happening so give me the first duo.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Ryan – MCab\Dempster for Howard\Cain
Cabrera and Dempster is the duo you want. In case you missed it, Dempster has been turning it around for a long while. Last 10 starts, only once has he allowed more than 3 ER runs, and as I’ve written and talked about ALL the time, Dempster has pitched much better than his ERA says.
Do the deal — Cabrera is a BEAST.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
JP – Cuddyer is in the 9-12 range as a 2B. Solid, but not elite.
By Sanibel on Jul 18, 2011
Ray, great job. Do you actually have a life other than this?…
Back to Jose Bautista. Since he’s 3B-eligible, wouldn’t he be worth more as such? In other words, where would you rank him as a 3B?
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 18, 2011
Sanibel – Yes I do have a life, well sometimes. Most of the time I just slave away…
Bautista is listed in the OF because, even though he is 3b eligible, he’s played the vast majority of games this year in the OF (70 in RF, 14 at 3B). I’d have him #1 at 3B.
By Bill on Jul 19, 2011
14 team auction keeper league. Roto with OBP replacing BA. $500 salary cap instead of $260. Limited to 5 keepers. Keepers can be kept max three years with salary escalating $10 each year, and contract length has to be declared in the week before the next years auction. So I had Bautista last year at $1, and kept him at this past years auction for three years ($11, this year, $21 in 2012, $31 in 2013). You can also trade and of your 5 keeper slots, and up to $25 of your auction cash.
I am in 2nd now, but the team in first is pretty far ahead (though some of the categories are close of course). The 3-5 teams have also been making moves to strengthen themselves, as the non-contnders start to plan for next year (there are in year salary caps and floors also, so it would already be hard to trade with some of the non-contenders that have traded main assets because they are basically at the salary floor, and would need to get salary back for any “stars” they had left).
I just traded Avila ($1), Madson ($3), Matt Moore ($1), and 1 of my 5 keeper slots for next year for McCann (existing keeper contract expiring, can’t be kept), Aramis Ramirez ($26) and N Feliz (expiring keeper contract).
The trade means I move Bautista to the OF and Berkman to 1st (Gaby Sanchez was there).
I got Berkman for $7 this year, and of course Bautista as pretty much lock keepers next year, with two slots left for Gaby $1, D Ortiz $26, BJ Upton $41, Kennedy $14, Gio $17 (remember $500 cap, so adjust accordingly).
I am middle of the pack in steals, 2nd in HR, RBI, OBP, 3rd in Runs. I amd 3rd in Saves, but only getting 5-6 points in K’s and W’s. ERA and WHIP are so close I move between 7-8 and 11-13 points pretty often.
Long preamble for the question:
McCutcheon/Kershaw/Felix Hernandez (all on expiring contracts) for Bautista and another of my keeper slots (would leave me with 3).
I’m torn because although I think I will gain in 4-5 points in steals, and am pretty well insulated in HR (wont lose more than 1), and should pick up points I need in K’s, possibly W’s (who knows), ERA and WHIP.
Still, unless the guy in 1st loses ground, it may not be enough.
Bautista at $21 next year would go for at least $90 at auction next year (3 guys topped $100 this year with the $500 cap and inflation), and he is locked in at $31 the next year.
That is such a big future asset, not to mention hard to replace offensively, it makes me uncertain.
So, trade him now, and go for it this year, or for it this year, or trade some of my other good, but lesser keeper assets, hope the leader slides some, and set myself up for next year?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 19, 2011
Bill – you win the award for the longest question I have ever been asked in a decade of work.
If you can’t keep McCutchen, Kershaw or King Felix, I dont think it makes a ton of sense to given up Bautista who you can sleep and a keeper slot. Given the inflation in your lg., and the massive discount you get for Bautista, I don’t think you should do this deal. Would be totally different if you could keep the guys you were acquiring, but with less than half the season left I dont know if it would be enough to add those three to make up the numbers you need to.
By Bill on Jul 19, 2011
Ray,
. Anyway, thank you for the response. That is the way I was leaning also. Just too big a future asset to give up especially without any assurance it will mean I win this year. If I have any follow up questions, I will avoid the long introduction. Thanks again, Bill
I know, long question, but the league rules are involved enough to need some preamble.
By Carlos on Jul 21, 2011
I won’t try to make an attempt to break the record for the longest question but I would like to ask you to rate my team:
C – Miguel Montero
1B – Paul Konerko
2B – Chase Utley
SS – Hanley Ramirez
3B – Brian Roberts (A-Rod on DL)
Util – Erick Aybar
OF- Boesch, Bourn, Victorino, Carlos Lee
My pitching staff looks like: Jaime Garcia, Marcum, Romero, Ryan Dempster, Javier Vazquez, Zambrano
What I should do to improve my team, I am on 8th place but only 2 wins from the 6th spot.