Random Musings
July 20th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.
Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.
Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.
Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.
If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.
The last 28 days did you know…
Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.
Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?
Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.
Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.
Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.
Ray Flowers
Tags: Aramis Ramirez, Ben Zobrist, Bryce Harpern, Clayton Kershaw, Curtis Granderson, Emilio Bonafacio, Jeff Keppinger, Jose Reyes, Nick Markakis, Pablo Sandoval, Placido Polanco, Tim Lincecum, Yunel Escobar
By Jim on Jul 20, 2011
Hi Ray, Have you noticed recently that Chipper refers to himself and his knees as “We”? As in: “We have a bit more mobility each day,” or “We could be out there next week sometime.” My question to you, Dr. Flowers, is 2-fold. Are you worried that Chipper sees his knees as his alter ego? And do you think he’s worth a pick-up (sliding Peralta to SS and dropping Jeter). Thanks much!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 20, 2011
Jim – I love it when players talk about themselves in the 3rd person.
“We” don’t like Chipper that much the ROTW. Old, broken down, just not the hitter he once was.
“We” think Chipper will continue to have health issues.
“We” would rather have Peralta at third, and Jeter at SS.
By Tito on Jul 20, 2011
Ray,
What about Bonifacio don’t you believe? I think a lot of analysts are suffering from long-term hate of a guy who could possibly be putting together a remarkable year…
Thanks! Love the website.
By Nick on Jul 20, 2011
Should I drop Jemile Weeks for Carlos Guillen? I’m not desperate for SB.
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jul 20, 2011
Tito – In his 1,100+ at-bat big league career Bonifacio slash line of .261/.322/.333. Since 2007 the league average hitter has produced a line of .263/.334/.415.
Two homers in his career.
67 RBI in his career.
BB/K is barely league average.
BABIP is over .360 not sustainable.
Career vs. righties: .243/.310/.309
Not a lot to like here other than the speed.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 20, 2011
Nick – I’d keep J. Weeks over C. Guillen. Carlos can hit, but I don’t trust him at all. He’s such an injury risk, I’d rather take a chance on the younger Weeks who has nice wheels and a spot in the daily lineup.
By Tito on Jul 21, 2011
Ray – I agree he’s been atrocious in the past. However, he is just 26 years old, he’s flourished since his installation at the top of the order, he’s shown a much better eye as the season’s progressed, and, although his BABIP is .360, his career BABIP is .333.
I think people are allowing their years of Bonifacio distaste color a potential breakout year.
Historical question: did Bonifacio burn a lot of owners in a recent year?
Thanks again, Ray.
By 10 Day Fantasy HR Contest on Jul 21, 2011
Looks like Aramis Ramirez has put himself in the group of top tier 3rd baseman. He’s finally recovered from the previous 2 years of injuries. He also had a pretty good 2nd half last year.
By josh on Jul 21, 2011
Hamiltion and AJ Burnett for Ibanez and D. Price. I get Hamiltion/AJ and have plenty of pitching. 10 keepers in 10 team mixed 5×5. About to hit the accept button.
By Joel on Jul 21, 2011
OK. This is a tough one in my 6×6 h2h league, and I really need your opinion. My closers are weak lately: I have paps, Farnsworth and feliz, and I’m definitely worried that Feliz is gonna be toast in a couple weeks. I can do the following: I give berkman, Haren and scott baker, and get beltran, Shields and mariano.
My other SPs are Hamels, Ubaldo, carpenter, Niese, Jonathan sanchez, Vazquez and Jeff Niemann. Would this trade leave me too weak in starting pitching? I’m really worried about both haren and Baker, so I’m considering the deal. THANKS!!
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Tito – I’m trying to tell you, Bonifacio simply isn’t that good a hitter.
Look at his minor league numbers – .285/.341/.362. The average is nice, but the OBP and SLG aren’t.
Obviously he has no power.
He also has like 22 percent of his career steals in the last month.
The speed is nice, but that’s all he’s really bringing long term.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
10 Day – Yep, Aramis finally came around. Like I kept telling people, you don’t have a 13 percent HR/F ratio and end the year at 2%. His recent hot streak has brought that number back up to 12.1 percent for the year.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Josh – In a 10 tm league, Burnett isn’t exciting. Hamilton obviously is, as long as he can stay healthy.
Burnett for Ibanez is a wash. Neither is great.
If you can afford to lose Price to add Hamilton, which I have no problem with, then the deal is good for you.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Joel - I give berkman, Haren and scott baker, and get beltran, Shields and mariano.
Beltran = Berkman close enough to be fine.
Shields or Haren? Close. One spot apart on my rankings – http://baseballguys.com/2011/07/18/pitchers-mid-season-rotw-rankings/
Baker or Rivera? With Baker’s elbow concerns, no reason not to favor Rivera if you’re nervous about your pen.
By matt on Jul 21, 2011
Ray, do u know when headley will be back in the lineup?
By Mike on Jul 21, 2011
This may be a difficult trade to assess – but I am looking to deal BJ Upton for some pitching. I would get Latos and Carpenter and replace Upton with either Logan Morrison or Coco Crisp. Your thoughts are appreciated.
By All American Home Run Derby on Jul 21, 2011
Ray, a little off subject, but would you trade Carlos Gonzalez for Hanley Ramirez? My current SS is Alexi Casilla.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Matt – Here’s the latest on Headley – http://twitter.com/sdutPadres/status/94062642867601410
By Jim on Jul 21, 2011
Ray,
Would you trade Miguel Cabrera for 1) Adrian Gonzalez or 2) Jose Bautista or 3)Keep Cabrera?
Not happy w/Tiger lineup. Thanks, Jim
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Mike – BJUpton for Latos and Carpenter
I love BUp, everyone knows that. However, we’re at the point of the year where deals need to happen to help out teams.
Latos is solid on the hill and will add great depth, and Carpenter has allowed one or no runs in four of his last five outings.
I have no issue with this deal.
LoMo a better hitter, Crisp more speed. Judge your pickup based on need there.
By Joel on Jul 21, 2011
I made the Mariano deal. I now have 4 closers, mariano, Paps, feliz and farnsworth. 1) who do u like better ROTW, Feliz or farns? and 2) would u trade Feliz for Dan Hudson? Is that fair value?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
All American – Carlos Gonzalez for Hanley Ramirez? My current SS is Alexi Casilla.
I’d do this deal. CarGo is dealing with that wrist issue, who knows how long it will bother him, and HanRam is blazing: .379-5-19-16 the last three weeks. DO the deal.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Jim - Would you trade Miguel Cabrera for 1) Adrian Gonzalez or 2) Miguel Batista or 3)Keep Cabrera?
Cabrera is the best/most consistent option of this group when you look at the past five years. I’m keeping him. He’s also the youngest of the trio. All are elite, all likely to be top-10 next year, but I’ll take the best all-around hitter who has been doing it for the longest.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 21, 2011
Joel – here are my pitcher rankings, they are only four days old—
http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ROTW-PIT-July18-2011-PdfU.pdf
Feliz for Dan Hudson — I like the add of hudson, and I’m not going to say deal isn’t fair, but see if you can do better.
By Brian on Jul 21, 2011
Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings,
Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for
Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis.
5 x 5 12 team roto
I dont know if im just jealous the person didnt trade with me or the trade was lopsided.