HITTERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

With the All-Star Game in our rear view mirror, everyone wants to know which players will have success in the second half. Never one to shirk my duties to give the people what they want, I’m releasing PART I of my two part look at Rest of the Way Rankings (ROTW).

What you will find in this two-part series are my rankings for players the ROTW. Jose Bautista has arguably been the best hitter in baseball the first half, but does that mean he will be the best hitter the ROTW? I’ll give you my thoughts on Bautista an all the other elite level position players in this entry.

Also be aware that players are only listed at one spot so don’t expect to see Kevin Youkilis listed at first base and third base. He might qualify at both spots, but I’ve only listed him at one spot (third base).

With that, here are my rankings for position players for the Rest of the Way.

HITTERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Look for Part II on pitchers in a coming entry.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Pitchers

photo © 2010 U.S. Army Public Affairs Midwest | more info (via: Wylio)

In PART III of my three part look at players to Buy Low on, I’ll wrap up things by taking a look at starting pitchers. Here are five names I would suggest kicking the tires on. Maybe you can buy them at .70 cents on the dollar.

For those of you who missed it, here are the links to my Buy Low articles on Infielders and Outfielders.

Ryan Dempster: 6-6, 5.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
First it was a horrible ERA, and now it’s back woes that have conspired to keep the value of Dempster down. Still, the ERA continues to come down. It was at 6.91 nine starts ago. It should continue to come tumble as his xFIP suggests it will. In fact, his current xFIP of 3.43 would be a career best while his FIP is 3.92, right in line with his marks the last two years (3.87 and 3.99). Dempster also has a K/9 rate of 8.25, an amongst pitchers who have thrown 95 innings this year, that’s 19th best in baseball. His BABIP also figures to come down. It’s currently at .326 after 7-straight years under .313. It also appears possible that he could be dealt to another club, and that certainly wouldn’t harm his outlook at all.

Ubaldo Jimenez: 4-8, 4.14 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 104.1 IP
On May 28th his ERA was 5.86. Since then he’s made eight starts with an ERA of 2.25. As a result of his recent run, he has allowed two or fewer runs in six of those eight games, his ERA is slowly moving back to the realm of the respectable. Even more telling with his work of late is the fact that he’s walked just 11 batters in those eight starts. As a result of that, and this is bound to surprise most, he’s current K/9 rate (8.19) and BB/9 rate (3.54) are better than his career averages (8.11 and 3.90), as is his FIP (3.46 compared to 3.57). Oh, and his xFIP is 3.59. Know what it was last year? Try 3.60. Is he “back?” Sure seems that way to me, though don’t expect a run to equal what he did in the first half last year.

Ted Lilly: 6-9, 4.79 ERA, 78 Ks, 1.29 WHIP in 107 IP
This is the one guy on this list that can be had on the cheap (he might even be on waivers in your league). I’ll be the first to admit that there isn’t considerable upside to be mined here, but even with his poor work this year he still has a better WHIP than Chris Carpenter (1.30), Matt Garza (1.34) and Madison Bumgarner (1.34). Lilly is apt to let you down, he’s allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts, but over his last 10 starts the other seven times he has taken the hill have results in five games of two or fewer earned runs allowed. He hasn’t pitched appreciably different than he has the past three years (here are his xFIP numbers – 3.90, 3.95 and 3.99 this year), and his 3.55 K/BB ratio is a very strong number (it’s 13th in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 95 innings pitched). There are worse options for your final starting spot in mixed leagues.

Ervin Santana: 4-8, 3.89 ERA, 106 Ks, 1.24 WHIP in 125 IP
This one is all about record. Most people, for whatever reason, stick to the old adage that you can judge a pitcher by his win-loss record. Even those that don’t buy into this line of thought are still going to have a hard time getting past his 4-8 record. What you should see though is an ERA that is better than his career mark (4.34), a WHIP that is better than his career mark (1.31), a K/9 rate that is nearly a batter better than his mark the past two years (6.85 compared to 7.63 this year), and a three year low in his walk rate (2.59 per nine). The stuff is there, the results are there, it’s just that his record hasn’t obliged and followed along.

Max Scherzer: 10-4, 4.69 ERA, 96 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
Unlike the others on this list, Scherzer’s numbers look poor while his record looks sharp. There’s no denying that he has been a major letdown this year, but the arm is still dynamic which is why I’d suggest buying low (if you are running guys like Kevin Correia, Jason Hammel and Mike Leake out there, do yourself a favor an add Scherzer). Scherzer has actually improved his walk rate slightly, his 3.07 mark would be a three year low, and his current line drive rate is also slightly below his career 20.0 percent mark (his HR/F ratio is only up 0.4 points as well to 10.7 percent). A few less fly balls would help to even things out a bit, as would a few more Ks (his 7.76 mark is a batter below his 8.78 career level). Will he turn things around in the second half? I honestly don’t know, but I do know that I’ll take the chance on his right wing over others with similarly successful seasons to this point.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Outfielders

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

A few days ago I posted my Buy Low options for the infield. Today, I continue my journey by moving on to the outfield where I’ll suggest purchasing guys which appears to be on their last legs but actually may not be.

Carl Crawford: .243-6-31-33-8 in 263 ABs
I’m going down with the ship. Back in January I championed Crawford in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo where I pointed out that in six of the past seven years Crawford was in the top-15 amongst all hitters in the fantasy game. The only time he missed was 2008 when he was injured. Clearly he has no shot of reaching that level in 2011, but he should be back on the field within a week (hamstring) with history  taunting us. Will you bite with the expectation that Crawford will return to being the disruptive force he has always been, or are you going to wallow in your wet socks and expect him to struggle like he did at the start of the year?

Jason Heyward: .226-9-22-31-5 in 230 ABs
Heyward has been one of the biggest disappointments in the game this season, and I’ve heard of people in 12 team leagues who have dealt him for players like Josh Willingham and Darwin Barney, or flat out released him. I certainly hope you weren’t one of those people. Heyward has been called out by the team and his teammates for being “soft” which has led to many in the fantasy game questioning his career path. Don’t be one of those people. I continue to say it, but let me repeat it – the young man, he’s just 21, has Hall of Fame talent. I’ll take a chance on skills like this anytime.

Alex Rios: .213-6-21-41-6 in 320 ABs
Ozzie Guillen has show remarkable patience with Rios be it because he is stubborn, or because he is looking at the facts. (1) Rios has hit at least 15 homers with 71 RBI, 63 runs and 15 steals each of the past five years. Only he and Bobby Abreu have done that. I’m NOT saying he gets there this season, but you don’t just throw out 5-straight seasons like that when a guy is only 31 years old. (2) His BB/K rate is better than his career average (0.62 to 0.40). His GB/FB ratio of 1.15 is an exact match for his career mark. His 17.4 percent LD-rate is down from his career level but it would still be a three year high. His BABIP is only .221, some .088 points below his career mark. Only once in his career did he finish a season below .300 and that was .273 in 2009. His HR/F mark is 5.5 and that would be a career low. Add that all up and a rebound certainly seems possible for a player who should still be in his prime.

Ichiro Suzuki: .270-1-23-46-23 in 374 ABs
In 10 seasons Ichiro has never failed to hit .300 with 200 hits and 25 steals. He’s gonna blow past the steals mark yet again, but the other two categories are in doubt (he is on pace for 180 hits). Ichiro has hit .323 in the second half in his career, and he’s going to need a push like that to get to .300. Given that he working on his best BB/K mark since 2002, he should have a shot. His current line drive rate is also a three year high, and he’s not hitting the ball in the air at all which should help (his fly ball rate would be his second worst, or in this case best, mark). A .354 BABIP producer, he’s only had one season in his career under .333. You think that his current.293 mark is gonna stay that low even as his age advances?

Jason Werth: .215-10-31-40-11 in 326 ABs
When you sign a deal that well in excess of $100 million dollar expectations will follow. Has he lived up to those expectations? The answer is a resounding no. He’s got a career worst LD-rate (16.0 percent), a career worst GB-rate (45.2 percent), a five year worst in the HR/F category (10.6 percent) and a career worst BABIP (.258). The two numbers really stick out though. Over the past five years Werth has always had a HR/F rate of at least 13.3 percent, and his career mark is 15.5. That’s substantially better than we’ve seen from him so far. Also, his BABIP is .323 in his career and has never been under .304 in a season. You really think he’s gonna undershoot that by .050 points this season? Werth is also on pace to produce 18 homers, 56 RBI, 72 runs and 20 steals this season. While that’s a far fry from his 2010 effort (27-85-106-13), considering that he can’t really perform any worse than he currently is has got to leave some hope that better days lay ahead, doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 12, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

You ask, I answer. Here are some of my thoughts on the questions that I receive all week at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you see Drew Stubbs coming back in the second half? He’s been terrible lately.
– @acase22

Perception isn’t always reality.

All of us, at one time or another, get sucked into the sample size morass, yet very few of us emerge from it with our senses intact. Example. Emilio Bonifacio may be the most valuable player in the fantasy game in the month of July as he’s hitting .441 with eight steals and 10 runs scored in nine games. So you pick up Bonifacio, ride him until he returns to being the below average hitter he has always been (.259/.319/.333 for his career) and move on. The problem is, most of the time in just such a scenario you don’t realize that the minor player is hot until they’ve been that way for two weeks, so by the time you actually make the move to pick them up they’re already tailing off. It’s why, more times than not, going with the more skilled player results in a better outcome than trying to play the hot hand over and over again. Two weeks or even a month just isn’t that long when the season goes on for six months.

As for Stubbs, he is a highly skilled, albeit flawed, player. There’s no disputing that he has struggled of late as he’s hitting .206  over his last 10 games, has gone 14 contests without a homer, and the last time he stole a base was June 27th, 13 games ago. But back to our old friend sample size. Let’s look past his work the past three weeks and compare his season long pace this year to the numbers he produced last year.

2010: .255-22-77-91-30
2011: .250-19-56-103-40

It might be hard to believe because he’s struggled so much of late, but Stubbs is actually on pace to have a slightly better fantasy season this year than last because of the addition of the steals and runs which help to negate the loss in homers and RBI.

If you drafted Stubbs expecting him to hit .280, you were fooling yourself. If you drafted him thinking he would be as consistent as the sun rising and falling, you were fooling yourself. Stubbs is an all or nothing type hitter who strikes out too much, and therefore has long stretches of ineffectiveness, but as long as he keeps up his year long pace his numbers will be just fine at years end.

Just saw that Ryan Raburn hit .315 with 13 homers last year in the 2nd half, better than Robinson Cano’s .299 and 13 effort.
– @CUTESalad

I know this isn’t a question, but I’ll use it as a springboard to mention something that you should all be made aware of – first and second half splits usually mean little. But you’re going to say ‘Player A hits .050 points higher in the second half, how could you not care about that?’ My response is – it’s totally random. Why not choose May 3rd through June 29th as the sample size to review? Because it’s ugly to look at. Using the All-Star game as a dividing line makes all the sense in the world because it’s a natural break point. However, that’s all it is – a natural break point. Let me give you an example.

Let’s say Player A is a .250 hitter in the first half, but a .300 hitter in the second half. If you saw an article pointing that out, your natural inclination would be to add that player right now. But should you? Let’s say that Player A had exactly 250 at-bats each of the six years he has been in the league in the second half. Again, let’s postulate that he is a .300 hitter in the second half. What if I told you the following hitting line would give you a total of .300 for a second half average despite looking pretty scary?

.250, .350, .375, .225, .335, .265

Those totals would net you an average of .300, but as you can tell, two of the years Player A was well below average, and one season he was league average at best. If you get the player who hits .375 you win your league. If you get the guy who hits .225, well, fantasy football will start soon (we all hope). Also, don’t forget about sample size. Make sure there is enough data at your disposal to truly ferret out what is going on as two seasons of splits isn’t likely to give you a crystal clear outlook on the situation.

Be very careful not to buy into a number without checking out the data behind that number. As much as I love numbers, even I know that they can be deceiving at times.

Mike Napoli’s back. Will he get more playing time?
– @zumbahlenm

Napoli’s usage over the years is one of the more vexing situations in the game. Year after year the guy flat out mashes, yet his manager never seems to have confidence in him. He’s not the greatest defensive catcher in the game, though his Catchers Earned Run Average (CERA) says otherwise (he’s tops amongst all catchers in baseball who have appeared in 25 games behind the plate), but his bat is elite in terms of power. Napoli has hit a mere .232 this season, but his OPS is .873, fourth at the position amongst fellas with 180 plate appearances. He’s also powered 12 homers with 33 RBI for the Rangers in just 155 at-bats. That’s a pace that would net him 36 homers and 99 RBI over 465 at-bats. Why isn’t someone willing to use him at catcher, first and DH to give him 500 at-bats? I guess no team in baseball could use 30 homers.

Honestly, with the way that the Rangers have used him all year, I don’t have much faith that their suddenly going to start running him out there every day. The best way for that to happen would likely be if he was dealt to a team that understands the talents he possesses.

I have Logan Morrison. Matt Joyce is available. Swap them?
– @hedmojave

Remember at the top when I said perception isn’t always reality. The perception is that Joyce started out hot and is now a dud, while LoMo is a better all-around hitter. However, is that true?

One thing is completely clear, Joyce was phenomenal, and then poor – there is no dispute there. Joyce hit .370 with nine homers over his first 51 games, and since then he’s hit .163 with three homers. Yikes is right. LoMo has also struggled recently. After hitting .320 over his first 32 games he’s hit .221 over his last 37 games. Still, I bet it would surprise many of you out there to learn that Joyce still bests LoMo in runs, batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Joyce: .290-12-41-45-5 with a .351 OBP, .513 SLG, .864 OPS
LoMo: .267-12-42-29-1 with a .343 OBP, .489 SLG, .832 OPS

Surprising isn’t it?

So who would I take rest of the way? You got a coin to flip? I’d go with Morrison, but I admit that it’s quite possible that the numbers of the two outfielders this season will end up being pretty similar.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Buy Low: All-Star Edition

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Which players, who have stunk so far, could be in line for a strong second half? It’s a question I get all the time. So I’m going to spend some time in my next few articles talking about which players you should BUY for the second half. Today, the infield.

CATCHER
Kurt Suzuki: .225-7-22-25-2 in 275 ABs

Two things here. First, Suzuki has been pretty bad, so he’ll be cheap to acquire. Second, the guy plays almost every day, so even if he isn’t that talented a hitter his counting stats figure to be solid because he rarely sits. A full time player for three years, Suzuki is currently on pace for four year lows in homers, RBI, runs, average, OBP and SLG. At the same time his BB/K is the same as always and he’s actually operating at the second best line drive rate of his career at 19.2 percent. History says his BABIP should rise, it’s .272 for his career and with a 19.2 percent line drive rate his mark shouldn’t be a sickly .235. When it does, that average should creep upwards providing even more value.

FIRST BASE
Carlos Lee: .268-7-48-35-3 in 339 ABs
Lee is a solid veteran type that you could target to acquire on the cheap since his current owner would probably deal him for relatively little. History says power is coming, he’s hit at least 24 homers each year since 2000, and every one of his 12 seasons he’s had at least 80 RBI. I wouldn’t expect him to go homer crazy in the second half, but he’s never finished a season with a HR/F mark below 9.5 percent so it would stand to reason that his 5.1 percent mark would improve moving forward.

SECOND BASE
Dan Uggla: .185-15-34-43-1 in 340 ABs
Obviously you want to add Uggla, right? Well not according to some people. I will freely admit that a guy who is hitting .185 with an OBP (.257) that would be a poor batting average is a disaster. At the same time, his power is finally starting to show, and that should remain a constant moving forward. Don’t overlook the fact that, despite being an  absolute dead weight to a club in the average and steals categories, that Uggla is fourth at the second base position in homers, has as many RBI as Ian Kinsler and has scored more runs than Michael Young (42).

THIRD BASE
Chone Figgins: .183-1-14-21-9 in 262 ABs
What a disaster this position has been. David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria, the top-4 at the position coming into the year, have all missed extensive time with injury. It just gets worse from there as well as seemingly every player at the position has something wrong with them. As such, there really isn’t much to mine at the third base spot since most leagues have all these guys already rostered, so coming up with a name that you could buy on the cheap to help out was pretty difficult. I went off the board and listed Figgins who is almost certain to be dealt. If he is, there’s still a chance that he could be a productive performer in the second half – he can’t possibly have fallen this far so quickly, and he’s likely on waivers in your mixed league so you can pick him up for nothing.

SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett: .238-1-21-32-18 in 323 at-bats

Bartlett has maintained some value by swiping bags, but overall his work has been awful. Despite a career norm in BB/K (0.51), and what would be the second best line drive rate of his career (23 percent), Bartlett is undershooting his career average by .038 points partly because his BABIP is .280, a mark that is .037 points below his career level. If he were to maintain his current rate, he’d also post a six year low in the category. He has no power, and won’t drive in any runs, but he certainly seems like a strong candidate to boost his average, substantially, in the second half.

ALL-STAR GAME

Oh, and by the latest count it appears that 83 players have been named to the All-Star teams. That’s more than 10 percent of the players in the league. What a joke.

 By Ray Flowers

The Arrival of Mike Trout

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Mike Trout is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. In fact, he’s even better than that. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Trout is the top prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had less faith in Trout. They listed him #2 (behind Bryce Harper). That’s the same way the folks over at Baseball America had it as well (Harper-Trout).

Clearly those people that are paid to predict future greatness for youngsters all think the same thing – Trout will be a superstar in the big leagues.

The Angels pulled a surprising move by calling up Trout to the big league club because of the hamstring injury suffered by Peter Bourjos Thursday (Bourjos isn’t going to play through the weekend, but a decision to place him on the DL is not a foregone conclusion). You might be asking yourself – why is it surprising that the Angels would call up a prospect who everyone agrees has such a luminous future? The answer is that Trout is just 19 years old (he wont turn 20 for a month). So what are my thoughts on Trout, a kid who is barely old enough to join the armed forces and isn’t legally able to drink alcohol?

THE SKILLS

You don’t end up at the top, or near the top, of every prospect list without an overabundance of skills. Trout is 6’1”, 200 lbs, and he brings elite speed to the table. His power is still developing, but he does have a pretty advanced understanding of the strike zone for a player his age. He’s also roundly given the thumbs up when it comes to his maturity level – he’s not one of these punk kids we see so often.

Trout was hitting .330 with a .422 OBP in the minors this season.

He’d also gone deep nine times with 28 steals in just 74 games played.

In three seasons in the minors Trout owns a slash line of .338/.423/.503.

Toss in 97 steals in just 250 games and you can plainly see why everyone is so high on this kid.

Think Grady Sizemore at his peak, a 20/30 guy who will score a ton of runs, and that’s what Trout will likely be one day. Notice I said one day and not today…

THE OUTLOOK

The last teenager in the majors was Justin Upton in 2007 if I’m not mistaken. As wonderful a player as Upton is, he hit only .221 in 140 at-bats that year. It’s just not that easy to make the jump from the minors to the majors. It’s also not easy to make the move when you have only 74 games under your belt above Single-A ball. Mix in the fact that Trout hasn’t even been on Earth for two decades yet, and the road is likely to be bumpy. If Trout hits the ground running, I decided to leave out some lame joke about a stream or river, he could stick with the Angels. However, if he struggles at all the club will not hesitate to send him back to the minors. Also, if Bourjos doesn’t need a DL stint, the team would likely turn the starting spot back over to him since they are pleased with his bat and feel that he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.

Keeper Leagues: Fall all over yourself to add Trout.

AL-only League: Spend that FAAB money liberally.

Mix Leagues: It’s a crap shoot. Don’t go all in, but if you have a roster spot feel free to add the mega talent.

Now, a mailbag question.

I’m sure you’re on this for an upcoming article but wanted to check and see what hitters/pitchers are 2nd half performers? May be some good insight for possible trades.
– Jim

I will be giving my BUY/SELL thoughts on players next week. However, I don’t put much into ‘this guy is really good in the second half’ stuff. It’s so random. Here is a an example.

Someone might be considered to be a 2nd half hitter because of a .300 batting average. However, if you actually look at his second half performances maybe he’s hit .375, .225, .335 and .265 the past four years. Overall he’s a .300 hitter in the second half, but his performances have been all over the map if you go year by year. Basically saying first/second half is just as random as saying July/August. They are just random points to start analyzing the data. Remember that before you make a deal for a guy who is a “second half player.”

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July7, 2011

(1) Jose Reyes likely out three weeks for Mets.

(2) Is Dan Uggla as bad as you think?

(3)  Everyone is freaking out about Drew Stubbs – why?

(4) Who is Jeff Karstens and should you care about him?

(5) Pablo Sandoval is hot – 17-game hitting streak.

By Ray Flowers

Readers Probes: Ogando and Twins’ Pen

photo © 2011 Mike LaChance | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m doing something today that I never do. I’m going to address two the questions from the COMMENTS section in an article today because I thought the conversation would be beneficial to all. I’ll directly quote the response of the readers, and then give my thoughts.

Yesterday in the July 5th Mailbag, I gave a less than glowing review of my outlook with Alexi Ogando. Reader Tom gave a differing viewpoint.

“As always, loved the piece. I just wanted to play devil’s advocate with Ogando for a moment with you, though. There are 2 main areas of worry: durability and performance.

With durability, we wonder about the huge jump in innings and getting tired as the season progresses. We’ve seen him tire lately, but the staff is aware and will rest him until July 19th (missing one start). Considering he’s a RP conversion, it might help to look at his teammate C.J. Wilson, with whom they did the same thing last year. Wilson’s previous high in innings was 73.2, but they had him finish with 228 last year (including playoffs). Did C.J. tire? Actually, he got better as the year progressed until September hit. Was it tiring or just regression from his really good numbers? Also, with C.J. (a RP convert), his K-rate was only mid 6′s through July, but then saw a large uptick into the end of year. We could be seeing the same thing with Ogando as well. He started throwing his slider more and bam…season high K’s. He could keep the K-rate at or above 8 as long as he throws the slider approximately 30 percent of the time or more.

Ogando’s innings [high was] about 71 (including minors), so about the same as Wilson had. A big difference between them is that Ogando has much better control. Because of that, he has many less stressful innings and likewise receives less wear and tear on the arm. It isn’t so much about innings as it is a) total pitches and more importantly b) innings with stressful pitch numbers (the innings where 30+ pitches are thrown). As far as performance goes, yes he will see a correction in BABIP. The reason why it is lower at the moment is because of the contact he induces (weak off the bat). That is why his BABIP against line drives and flies is better than league avg and that his HR/9 is better. Will it stay at .247 (present), no. But it is possible for it to remain in the .280′s (Wilson career .289). Also consider that the league-wide BABIP is about .290 this year vs historically always being .300. Also consider that since the beginning of June, Ogando has carried a .310 BABIP and 57 LOB percent…while his ERA/WHIP have been 3.95/1.28. This includes arguably the roughest stretch in performance of his career.

Is it crazy to think this is just a little regression to the mean and nothing more (considering Ogando carries a career 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP)? And if this is the rough stretch (and still a decent pitcher), I wonder how he’ll be with some rest, more sliders, and a better idea of how to pitch as he gains experience. I’m not willing to say he is elite, but he is certainly up there. And just think, Tim Lincecum is going through a rough stretch as well. Over the last 30 days, he is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. But we’re not going to write him off. Considering that Ogando’s rough patch isn’t that bad and other than those few games, he was amazing…maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt. There is precedent with his own teammate as recent as last year that this could hold up over a full season. Maybe lightning does strike twice.”
– TOM

Tom – No one ever brings it more in their analysis here than you do. I applaud the effort you put in, must have taken  you a good half hour or more to break down everything with Ogando. Great work – you’re a model for everyone that just writes ‘nuh uh’ in their responses.

I will not dispute the main factual arguments you presented, but I will question the comparison that you drew. It’s easy to compare Ogando to Wilson in that both are converted relievers for the Rangers, but it’s pretty darn hard to directly compare the two. First, Wilson had trained for years in America and had been a big league pitcher for years. Even if his innings total was low, you have to think he was better trained, or shall we say prepared, than Ogando. Second, they are different types of pitchers. Ogando’s GB/FB rate is 0.95 over his two seasons while Wilson’s mark is 1.67. That’s a massive difference that clearly swings things in Wilson’s favor. Third, let’s take a look at your pitch contention. This season Ogando has thrown an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearances and 15.9 pitches per inning. Last season, during Wilson’s big innings pitched bump, he tossed 4.05 pitches per plate appearance and 16.9 pitches per inning. I’m not measuring “stress” at all with those numbers, but those numbers are pretty close (Wilson’s been better this year at 3.85 and 15.8). Fourth, you can’t really compare two pitchers to one another. You can look at historical averages and draw come basic conclusions (.290-300 BABIP for a league average for example), but that doesn’t mean that Ogando will be in that range (as you already know) – he could end up setting a baseline above, or more likely, below it.

The problem with Ogando is that we simply do not know what to expect. Given traditional measures of analysis and historical trends, the pendulum would have to favor me in this argument. Does this mean I will be “right” about Ogando? I wouldn’t have written what I did if I didn’t believe it, but that doesn’t mean I’m always going to be right.

“Ray, is Glen Perkins a save candidate now with another save Tuesday for the Twins? Need to pick up a pitcher, either the injury prone Rich Harden or Perkins? Thanks.”
– JIM

Jim – The Twins closing situation is up in the air. Matt Capps is struggling, he will not be given a saves chance today if one arises, and even if he rights the ship he could be traded at some point (I touched on this situation yesterday in the Mailbag piece referenced above).

Joe Nathan is improving as he’s looked good since he returned from the DL with four straight scoreless outings in which he hasn’t allowed a single batter to reach base via a walk while allowing only one hit. The Twins obviously are looking at returning him to the 9th inning, but is he ready to assume that role right now?

Perkins has two saves in 112 career games. He’s also left handed, and many managers prefer to avoid port siders in the 9th because of matchups, but here’s the biggest issue – he’s never been this good before.(1) His K/9 is up over four full batters. I know he is working out of the bullpen right now versus spending all his time starting, but can he really go from a five per nine type of hurler to a guy with more than a K per inning? Count me doubtful there. (2) He has a 4 year low in his walk rate (nearly a full batter above his normal rate). (3) In 30.1 innings he hasn’t allowed a single home run (his career rate is 1.16 per nine). There’s just no way that I can look at him and trust him to be a closer, and I don’t think the Twins will see is differently. I’m not saying he wont get a few looks in the short term, I think he might, but he’s not likely to have long term success in that role with his skill set and current level of performance which is so drastically out of line with his previous five seasons in the big leagues.

Do I suggest adding Perkins or Harden? Depends on your need (does your team lack for relief or starting pitching?). Harden has great skills, but he has played this game with us all before. Just when we buy that he is “back,” injury strikes. If you need save help add Perkins. Even if he picks up only a few it might help you move up the standings a spot or two. I just don’t trust Harden’s being able to take the ball every five days the rest of the way. If it doesn’t work out with Perkins, you should still be able to find starting help on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Celebrating the 4th

photo © 2008 Eric Beato | more info (via: Wylio)

In years past I have taken the 4th of July as a chance to move a bit away from the norm here at BaseballGuys.com. Last year I wrote about Competitive Eating and asked the question about whether or not it was a “sport”?  Two years ago I wrote a piece entitled Freedom where I gave some information regarding the Declaration of Independence. Today I’ll follow my usual path and touch on a few topics that aren’t exactly germane to fantasy baseball while mixing in some relevant information.

There have been 46 ball players who were born on July 4th. Currently there is only one who is active – Sergio Santos who was born in Bellflower California in 1983. In that same year of 1983 Dave Righetti tossed a no-hitter against the Red Sox on the 4th. That outing was the Yankees first no-no since Don Larson’s perfect game in the World Series in 1956.

A history lesson. Though we celebrate the Declaration of Independence on July 4th, the resolution was actually adopted on July 2nd. Furthermore, the Declaration wasn’t officially approved until July 9th when it was voted on at the New York Convention. The document was ordered to be “engrossed on parchment” for the means of it becoming an official document on July 19th. The actual signing ceremony was held on August 2nd, 1776 though, despite common perception, it took longer for all 56 delegates to affix their signature on the historic parchment. Moreover, some members of Congress never actually signed the document.

Lou Gehrig’s retirement speech, you know the one in which he said he was the “luckiest man on the face of the earth,” was given on July 4th, 1939. Gehrig died less than two years later of ALS, or Lou Gehrig’s disease, on June 2, 1941. He was 37 years old.

There are five places in the United States that have the name “America.” The largest is American Folk in Utah. It has a population of more than 26,000 people.

Jose Canseco hit his 30th homer on this date in 1999. He would hit only four more homers the rest of the way including just three over his final 115 at-bats before his season ended. All told he had 34 homers and had 95 RBI in just 113 games for the Rays. The effort marked Canseco as the first player in history to hit 30 homers with four different clubs (the others were the Athletics, Rangers and Blue Jays).

There’s a better than one in four chance that the hot dogs you eat, or ate, came from Iowa since there were over 19 million pigs located in the state in March, 2011. The odds are one in three that your baked beans came from North Dakota and if you’re eating corn on the cob there is a nearly 70 percent chance it came from California, Florida, Georgia, New York or Washington. For more fascinating info, click on this link.

July 4th, 1974 was Mike Marshall’s 14th straight appearance for the Dodgers. And you think guys are overworked nowadays? For the year Marshall pitched 208.1 innings… and didn’t make a single start. He won 15 games, lost 12, and racked up 21 saves to lead the NL. He also posted a 2.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on his way to appearing in 106 games, the highest single season total for any pitcher in the history of baseball.

By Ray Flowers