Mailbag: August 2, 2011
August 2nd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account so I felt compelled to give a few thoughts.
Heard anything from scouts/injury experts re: James Shields getting torched?
– @rlawealth
Sample size people.
Last time out Shields was blasted by the A’s for 12 hits and 10 runs causing his season long ERA to rise a half a run. Two starts before that Shields allowed six runs to the Red Sox over six innings of work. So Shields must be injured or simply out of gas, right? I don’t think that is the only logical position to take here. Despite the two beatings he has taken of late, consider the following.
(1) Shields has an ERA of 3.03. His career mark is 4.08 and he has never posted a mark under 3.56.
(2) Shields has a 1.07 WHIP. His career mark is 1.25 and he has never posted a mark under 1.11.
(3) Shields has an 8.59 K/9 rate. His career mark is 7.55 and he’s never posted a mark above 8.28.
Could it just be that a regression to the mean is underway here? Even with getting bombed twice of late, he’s still on pace to set career bests in numerous categories. Not just that, he’s right in line with career norms in a handful of other categories.
2011: 1.21 GB/FB, 18.3 percent LD-rate, 10.9 HR/F
Career: 1.15 GB/FB, 18.9 percent LD-rate, 11.6 HR/F
Is Shields hurt? That’s possible though I’ve seen nothing to suggest it. Is he wearing down? That seems unlikely given that he has thrown at least 200-innings each of the past four years. My bet is that sooner or later numbers tend to even out, and it just seems like that might be happening with Shields.
Drop Anibal Sanchez for Derrek Lee? I’m 40+ in IP.
– @SpecialFNK
Sanchez has been really strong this year. His 3.74 ERA matches his career mark, while he’s knocked off a tenth in the WHIP category (1.26). More impressively he’s jacked up his K-rate two batters to an impressive 9.37 per nine while lowering his BB-rate by a full batter from 3.63 in his career to 2.62 this season. He’s pitched better than anyone could have expected and given his owners some wonderful production. However, he has only six wins on the year. He’s also allowed four earned in his last two starts and four times in five he has allowed four or more. He’s also failed to last more than five innings in three of his last six starts. Perhaps the toll of the long season is catching up to him, or maybe things are just leveling out after his tremendous start?
Lee has long been one of the more consistent bats first base, even if he’s only on a couple of occasions been an elite performer. Since 2000, in every season of at least 500 plate appearances, Lee has hit 19 homers, drive in 70 runs and scored 70 times. Add in that he has hit at least .286 in five of the past six years, and you have yourself one solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. This season has been a rough for for Lee though, he’s posted a slash line of .249/.304/.423 versus his career levels of .281/.364/.494, but things have turned of late. Not only did he bash two long balls in his first game as a Pirate, Lee has gone deep four times with 10 RBI in six games and over his last 26 games he has eight homers and 22 RBI. Clearly he is locked in at the moment.
Would I make this move? It all depends on your needs. I have no issue with the move, the players seem to be headed in different directions, you’re pushing your innings pitched limit, and it seems like you could use an offensive boost.
Rick Porcello or Mat Latos rest of this year?
– @BennetTaub
Porcello is winning, and people notice that. Over his last five starts he is 5-0, and not once in that span has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of course, the previous three starts he allowed 18 runs in 11. innings so it’s not like his consistency is his middle name. I also look at his yearly numbers and see a terrible K-rate (5.35 per nine), middling ratios (4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP), and think to myself that this guy is a better real world pitcher than fantasy option at this stage of his development.
Latos has slightly better ratios on the year (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), and his K/9 rate of 8.49 is near elite. Latos has not been as good as Porcello the last month, but the last time he allowed more than four earned runs in a game was April 16th, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts and 10 of 12 starts.
I’d go with Latos. He’s been more consistent on the year and has a massive advantage in the K-category. Of course, if you are targeting wins, more about that below by the way, I understand the desire to go with Porcello who has as many victories in his last five outings as Latos has all season with the Padres.
Would you drop Bud Norris for Derek Holland? Similar pitcher, worried about Astros.
– @TheJeffShelton
The Astros’ offense stinks, and that will certainly make it more difficult on any of their arms to pick up victories. However, as we all know, wins are impossible to predict. I mean, how is it possible that Jake Arrieta (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) has 10 victories while Josh Beckett (2.17 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) has nine.
Norris has delivered this year with nearly a strikeout per inning (130 in 135 frames), while posting a solid ERA (3.47) and a passable WHIP (1.32). He also doesn’t seem to be slowing too much as he has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last 10 starts. There is some concern about his innings count, he has never tossed more than 175.2 innings, but his performance on the hill looks solid for now.
Holland is another young, hard throwing young Texan arm. He cannot match the strikeout exploits of Norris, his K/9 mark is 6.67, but he does a solid job of limiting the walks (2.98 per nine, about a half batter better than Norris). Like Norris he is pitching well of late. Moreover, he’s been phenomenal over his last five starts. Sure he got lit up for seven runs on July 20th, but in the other four outings he hasn’t allowed a single earned run as he has tossed three complete game shutouts.
Holland does have better offensive support, and is on an extreme roll right now, so making the move from the righty to the lefty isn’t something that I’m gonna give the thumbs down to.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Anibal Sanchez, Bud Norris, Derek Holland, Derrek Lee, James Shields, Josh Beckett, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello, sample size
By Jon on Aug 2, 2011
Ray – better 5th OF in a 10-team league for ROS only: Matsui, Nyjer Morgan or Fowler?
League counts AVG and OPS and I could use both. Thanks!
By Grant on Aug 2, 2011
Ray, can you rank these guys ROS in a 10-team league that counts QS and Wins? Got a starts limit and need to think about maybe sitting some bad matchups.
Carpenter, Anibal, Baker, Garza, Beachy, Danks, Luebke
With the exception of Baker/Danks lots of my guys been scuffling of late. Thankee, sir.
By Brian on Aug 2, 2011
In a 12 team 6×5 H2H. Have Sanchez coming off Dl. I need to drop someone to make room for him. Do I drop KRod or maybe Floyd/Luebke? I think the answer is KRod just need the push off the cliff. Thanks again.
BB
By Ross on Aug 2, 2011
Ray,
Can you list in order of preference who you like the rest of the way in a H2H format (K’s = +1 point; W = +10 points; every out = 1 point; Hits/Walks/ER = -1)
Niese, Luebke, Porcello, Karstens, Nova
Thanks…..Keep up the great work!
By Jim on Aug 2, 2011
Hi Ray, Have you had a chance to scout Jesus Guzman of San Diego? He’s making a pretty good case for more playing time with that bat the past few weeks. Thoughts?
By Frankie S. on Aug 2, 2011
Hey Ray,
Take a look at my team. I was thinking of dropping someone for Brett Lawrie, who seems to be getting the call this weekend. I’ve been burned by rookies this year (Rizzo, Moustakas) Is Lawrie any different?
C-Saltalimaccia
1B- Youkilis/Trumbo
2B- Espinosa
3B-Beltre
SS- Castro
OF- Stanton Ethier Holliday Bourgeious Maybin
UT Bonaficio Matsui
SP- Romero Colby Lewis Harden Hellickson Jeff Neimann Hamels Garza Gallardo
RP- Farnsworth Nunez Putz Chapman Perkins
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Jon – Matsui is hitting .500 the past 14 games. Fowler .403 with 11 runs the last two weeks. Morgan is hitting .317 the last three weeks, but he hasn’t stolen a base.
I’d go Matsui for now, he’s just so hot you can’t turn away.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Grant –
I ranked pitchers just two weeks ago here – http://baseballguys.com/2011/07/18/pitchers-mid-season-rotw-rankings/
That should answer your questions.
It’s ROTW not ROS. I wonder where this ROS stuff started…
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Spencer – Answered this on twitter for you. Still need to know contract lengths/cost, # of keeper etc. to give true answer.
By spencer on Aug 2, 2011
I just traded Desmon Jennings, LoMO, and Matt moore for Braun in a dynasty league. Wondering if it was a good deal for me.
@Ray, it’s one those leagues in which you keep the whole team so you can keep someone indefinitely.
By nick on Aug 2, 2011
14 team mixed h2h keep 4 no $ value. In 1st by 12 points, need pitching help. Going for this year. I have ackley and posey. Would you trade them for hamels and (vlad or hart). Is ackley even worth a keeper in the last round of the draft? Thanks Ray
By wesley on Aug 2, 2011
Id appreciate your opinion on this. Its a fantasy football question. There are so many sites to follow for free and paid sites. Which one do you follow or witch one you think is the best to follow
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Ross – Niese, Porcello, Karstens, Nova.
I know that Karstens has the best numbers, but he simply doesn’t have the “stuff” to justify the numbers – yet he’s somehow doing it nonetheless.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Jim – Jesus Guzman has a big bat. always has. He can’t really field though, and he’s already 27 years old so he’s no spring chicken. Tough ballpark and lousy team around him in San Diego. Also has a .377 BABIP which he isn’t going to sustain. NL only option is his right spot.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Frankie S – All rookies are risky. It’s why I always tell people to be cautious with them. As for Lawrie, he has the game to succeed right off the top. Looking at your club, I’d have no problem dropping Perkins for Lawrie since Nathan looks locked in the 9th for the Twins.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 2, 2011
Spencer – Braun is a superstar, and should be for the foreseeable future. It’s huge to get him.
Des. Jennings has the makings of a top-50 OF at least, as early as next year.
LoMo is about the same. Solid approach should lead to a bunch of strong campaigns.
Moore has the best curve in the minors, and he could be a dominating force as early as next year.
If you are in win now mode deal is good. If you are looking toward 2012 deal is solid. If you are looking 2013 on, then things get really interesting.
By Regina on Aug 3, 2011
‘morning Ray!
I’ve been offered Ricky Romero and Erick Aybar for Mark Reynolds and JJ Hardy. It’s a standard 12 team 5×5 roto league. Currently in 1st place, could add a few more points by improving wins k’s and sb. Ridiculously far ahead in Runs, and in first in HR by a couple. My other HR hitters are Bautista, M.Cabrera, Granderson, Pence. Both Reynolds and Hardy were picked up off the wire. I might lose a point or 2 in HR but there are 6 of us clustered within 6 wins of each other. I also picked up Bret Cecil. Input?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 3, 2011
Nick – Ackley/Posey for Hamels/Hart in keeper league.
At this point, you still have to presume that Posey will be a top-10 C next year.
Clearly Ackley is a contender for top-10 at 2B next year.
Hart is a solid OF, but there are a ton of those. Hamels is an elite arm, period.
Its a risk to go with the two youngsters, but their upside is tremendous.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 3, 2011
Wesley – I think I’m gonna release some rankings myself here in a bit for NFL.
I write football for FantasyAlarm and RotoInfo. I also know that Rotoworld and Rotowire are two great services. Footballguys, and I have nothing to do with them, is also a solid site.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 3, 2011
Regina – Morning.
I’ve been offered Ricky Romero and Erick Aybar for Mark Reynolds and JJ Hardy.
Hardy is power, Aybar is speed. Their value is similar.
Reynolds is all power, but it sounds like you are doing well there. If you need SP help,. Romero is a great target. I broke him down yesterday in an article. Since the start of last year he is 9th in wins, 11th in IP/Ks, 13th in ERA/hits per nin amonst all who have thrown 250 innings.
Go ahead and make the deal.
By thomas on Aug 3, 2011
Should we be worried about Jason Heyward? Keith Law said his swing is messed up and could be to injury or other. Should we bank on him figuring it out, guy is still only 21 even though 2011 has been a nightmare
By Ray Flowers on Aug 3, 2011
Thomas – just did a video on Heyward – http://baseballguys.com/2011/08/03/around-the-horn-august-3rd-2011/
By Frankie S. on Aug 9, 2011
Hey Ray,
Thinking of tinkering with my bench a little bit and making the following two moves:
Drop: Danny Espinosa ( I have Brett Lawrie)
Pickup: Jason Kipnis
Drop: Jason Bourgeious ( I have maybin and bonafacio for steals/runs)
Pickup: Garrett Jones
Here are the scoring categories
AVG, SB, OPS, HR, RBI, Runs
Here’s my offense:
C-Salty
1B-Trumbo
2B- Lawrie/Espinosa
3B- Youkilis/Beltre (DL)
SS-Castro/Bonafacio
OF: Either
Stanton
Holliday
Matsui
Maybin
Bourgeious