Three For Friday
August 5th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Evan Longoria. All three players came into the year with expectations, albeit different levels. Butler was thought of as a solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. Gordon was being looked at as a decent outfield option in AL-only leagues. Longoria? He was taken as a top-10 overall pick and was thought to be a potential AL MVP candidate. How have the three done to this point of the season? You already know the answer, but I have to write about something…
Billy Butler: .297-13-60-50-1 in 397 at-bats
On June 25th Butler was hitting .285 with seven homers and 42 RBI. He was roundly viewed as a colossal failure. He’s changed those opinions the past 10 days. Over his last nine games Butler has raised his average to .297. That’s not a shock since he owns a career mark of .298. It’s been the massive power surge that has caught everyone’s attention. In those nine games Butler has hit six homers, remember he had seven in his first 100 games, and he’s driven in 18 runs. That recent run puts Butler on pace to produce a fantasy season of .297-18-87-72. Given that his average effort the last two years has been .309-18-86-78, are you really surprised?
The moral of the story is to remain patient. How many of you bailed on Butler a month ago only to loose out on his massive hot streak? Since Butler entered the bigs there have been few players who have been more consistent from year to year. He likely never become an elite performer, but that doesn’t mean you should overlook him merely because of a slump here and there.
Evan Longoria: .224-15-56-41-1 in 345 at-bats
His season has been ruined by injury. Somehow Longoria is hitting .224 on the year, and it’s not like his work has improved of late as his average has fallen to .181 over his last 116 at-bats. Oddly, his walk rate is a career best while his K-rate is a career low. The result is a .224 average with a 0.75 BB/K mark, and we don’t see that very often. Part of the blame can be laid squarely at the feet of his .230 BABIP which is only .076 points below his career rate. That mark just doesn’t jibe with an 18.6 line drive rate.
However, let’s be fair to Longoria. If he were to maintain his current pace over 150 games he would produce 28 homers, 104 RBI and 76 runs (he went 22-104-96 last year). That’s a lot closer to his level of production from last year than you probably thought. However, injuries have sapped his ability to steal bases leaving him with one theft this year after averaging 10 a season the last three years.
Expect a significant rebound next year, so make sure if he slips in drafts you scoop him up.
Alex Gordon: .311-14-58-68-9 in 434 at-bats
Finally.
After a couple of years of major disappointment, Gordon has suddenly become the player everyone thought he would be when he was drafted 2nd overall in 2005. Strong all year long, Gordon has killed it over his last nine games producing 18 hits to boost his average up to .311. On the year he’s hit lefties (.851 OPS), killed it at home (.970 OPS), and you don’t want to face him under the lights (.930 OPS at night). He had one rough month that caused some minor panic – he hit .236 in May – but other than that he has performed at All-Star levels.
What has been the key for him this year? Some luck hasn’t hurt at all. Gordon has a 0.49 BB/K mark which is right on his career 0.46 rate. His LD-rate is 21.7 percent, slightly above his 20.4 career mark. His HR/F rate of 10.7 percent is only slightly above his career 9.7 percent mark. That’s a whole lot of “normal” from Gordon, that is until you look at the BABIP column – .368. It’s pretty tough to predict that anyone can keep that up, so unless Gordon makes some other improvements to his game hitting above .300 this season would appear to be in jeopardy. Still, he is in the hunt for best return on investment of any player in the game this season, so kudos to him for that.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Evan Longoria, Expectations
By Eric on Aug 5, 2011
Ray i have a keeper Questions for you. Would you keep Lorenzo Cain? I would have to sign him to at least a 3 year deal or as many as 6 years at a dollar a year. It is a 20 team 10X10 league. My only worry with the guy is he is now 25 and still has no major league experience. His minor league numbers are good but to me this doesn’t mean much. Is he worth the risk vs. reward?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 5, 2011
Eric – In a 20 tm league, Lorenzo Cain for a $1 is a must keep if you have roster space. I’d sign him to that three year deal that you have open. There is potential here even if the Royals have mismanaged the situation.
By Jackson on Aug 5, 2011
I am commish in my league. An owner who is fighting for playoff spot called up someone who doesnt care and doesnt watch their team because they are out of it. They traded this owner Kershaw for Brandon Phillips, Cahill, and Wandy. I veto’d as comish. Was that justified? A little over half the league agrees with me becuase the context of the trade threatens the integrity of our league. What do you think Ray?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 5, 2011
Jackson – Kershaw for Brandon Phillips, Cahill, and Wandy
Cahill is league average. If you’ve read any of my stuff you know that. He’s a throw in here since you’ll be able to match him off waivers unless you are in a 16 team league.
Wandy is a solid arm who doesnt figure to get many wins with the Astros. He’s also been rough of late (five earned runs in three of six outings).
Phillips is a top-10 2B at worst.
Honestly, I can’t say the deal is horrible. Remember, the team getting Kershaw will also have two open roster spots to add players, and provided they are quality options, this deal ends up being a lot closer than it looks on the surface.
By Jackson on Aug 5, 2011
Sorry I wrote that post opposite, the contending team is getting Kershaw and basically dropping his garbage on the team that doesn’t care. The contending team has Uggla as a 2nd baseman to replace phillips. With Kershaw his pitching become CC, Lester, Shields, and Kershaw.
By Alan on Aug 5, 2011
Ray,
In a 10 team 5 x 5 league, who would you rather have on your team Kevin Youkillis or Paul Konerko?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 5, 2011
Alan – You cannot go wrong with either Youkilis or Konerko, both are rock solid. I’d go with Youkilis – better offense and he qualifies at multi spots.
By wesley on Aug 6, 2011
whats up ray, im in a deep 13 team league and i need to pick up a pitcher to replace j.Zimmerman. Here are my options Vazquez, Tomlin, Saunders, Burnett, cecil or lackey. thanks again
By Matt on Aug 6, 2011
Ray, do you think me trading Harang for Buerhle is a good choice long term?
By Matt on Aug 6, 2011
hey Ray- when do your football rankings come out-
By Nick on Aug 7, 2011
Who is a better stream option this week – Matt Garza or Hiroki Kuroda?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2011
Wesley – I’d take a shot on Cecil. The other hurlers might be performing well right now – look at Tomlin’s WHIP – but I’m just not sold on their skills. In 5 of 6 starts Cecil has allowed 3 or less runs, and four times two or less, three times 1 or less. He also has been working deep into games and has four wins in five starts.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2011
Matt – Both players, Harang and Buehrle, are basically the same hurler. MB has 16 QS in 17 outings, pretty amazing really, so he’d likely be a slightly better option at the moment. Pretty darn close though.
NFL rankings likely out Monday or Tuesday.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 7, 2011
Nick – I think both are pretty much must starts each week. Kuorda has a tough matchup against Phils though, so go Garza against the Nats.
By Chris on Aug 7, 2011
Ray, please rank the following keepers, I looking to trade 2 and Posey $7, for Bautista at $10.
Shields $10
D.Hudson $10
I Kennedy $1
My other Keepers would be Trout $1, R Weeks $16, B Harper $1, Pineda $1 and the pitcher I keep.
Ray, keepers go up $5 each year.
Ray, playing for next year.
Thanks for the good work. Waiting to see you out stet N Zegura in football!
By Ray Flowers on Aug 8, 2011
Chris – As far as keepers, #3 on list would be Hudson. Therefore would Hudson/Posey for Bautista make sense? For certain. You’re giving up posey which could be huge, but there is still no certainty that he will play at an all-star level next season. Plus, he and Hudson cost $7 more than Bautista.
I’d make this deal.
I’ll take on all comers in football… we’ll see how that plays out – probably badly lol.
By Ryan on Aug 8, 2011
Ray, NL only league: someone just waived Edwin Jackson. Would you waive Bud Norris to pick him up or stand pat? I can gain points in wins but am clustered with a number of others in ERA and Ks.
Also, I need to sit one of these guys this week: Huff, Freese, Furcal, Gordon, Soriano and Ankiel. Normally I would say Ankiel but he has been leading off and playing very well lately. I have a comfortable lead in HRs and RBI and am clustered with a number of other owners in SBs and RUNs.
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 8, 2011
Ryan – I’m still holding on to Norris over Jackson. Each guy had a hiccup of late, but Norris is the slightly better skilled hurler. However, if your goal is to get wins, I can understand why you would do this, and I wouldn’t get in your way. The Astros are just awful.
Gordon is dealing with a bad shoulder.
Freese coming back from noggin nock.
Since you need steals, I’d sit Freese, hope Gordon plays, and that he racks up some steals for you.
By IceholeTour on Aug 8, 2011
Start Johnny Giavotella over Hanley this week?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 8, 2011
Icehole- No idea when Hanley will be back in there. I’d go with JG just to be safe.