Rookies, Former Disappointments an a CL
August 10th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Rookie disappointments, players trying to finally catch their groove, and a closer who doesn’t get the respect that he is due highlight today’s article.
John Axford is the Brewers closer. Period. I know everyone got all nervous when Francisco Rodriguez was brought into town, but the Brew Crew has done the right thing and left Axford alone as the arm working the 9th. K-Rod has done very well in a setup role with a 2.45 ERA and 15 Ks in 11 innings since joining the club, but it’s Axford who deserves all the accolades. Not only is he 33 for 35 in saves, the last time he blew a chance was April 18th as he’s racked up 64 Ks in 54.1 innings. He’s as good as there is at shutting down an opponent.
Chris Davis is one of my favorite late round gambles each year. To this point, he’s done little at the big league level to warrant the love, but perhaps things will change now that he is in Baltimore. Apparently over a scare with his shoulder, Davis appears slated to see daily playing time in the Orioles’ lineup. Davis hit .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in just 48 games at Triple-A this year, and though he would be lucky to get within a hundred points of that batting average, the power is legit. After all, he has averaged 24 homers per 500 at-bats during his big league career (43 homers in 903 at-bats).
Conor Jackson’s career was at a crossroads coming into this season. A first round pick in 2003, his last couple of seasons had been ruined by ill health. He started out slowly this year, and with the A’s logjam at first and in the outfield he just wasn’t seeing regular playing time. He’s slowly started to come around though as he hit .292 in July and .309 over his last 21 games. He still isn’t flashing much power with only four homers in 299 at-bats, but the sweet stroke is finally back.
Rich Harden is always one pitch, heck one step, from the trainer’s table. It took him forever to get on the field this year, but once out there he has performed very well. Harden may have an elevated 4.07 ERA for the Athletics but he has 45 Ks in 42 innings, is sporting a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his WHIP (1.17) is a rather impressive total for a hurler in the AL. He’s only lasted more than six innings twice in seven outings, but he’s looked pretty much like his old self when on the bump.
Rookie Report
Yonder Alonso – The guy has no position, he recently embarrassed himself in the outfield, and he’s not going to supplant Joey Votto at first base any time soon. Still, the kid can hit and he’s gone 8-for-17 (.471) this year to up his career mark to .304 in 46 at-bats in the bigs.
Desmond Jennings – He’s looked every bit the Carl Crawford clone in 17 games hitting .328 with 11 RBI, 11 runs scored and eight steals. He has been marvelous.
Mike Moustakas – He’s hitting .193 with one homer through 171 at-bats, and his OPS is .497. The poor average is a head scratchier but one homer in 171 at-bats? That’s just vexing.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Chris Davis, Conor Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford, Mike Moustakas, Rich Harden, Yonder Alonso
By wesley on Aug 10, 2011
Would you take a chance by picking up morneau and dropping pena or hunter, its a 10 team roto league. Thanks again
By Ray Flowers on Aug 10, 2011
Wesley – Morneau has been killing it in the minors, but after 18 start and stops this year, I’d be hard pressed to count on him in a 10 tm league. You could make the move, but it’s not something I would recommend doing.
By Rob on Aug 11, 2011
Hi Ray,
Jesus Guzman…how long is he a starter for me at the MI position? When rosters expand in Sept and Rizzo re-enters the picture, is Guzman going to see a large decline in value?
And Kipnis…he’s got the job with the O.Cab trade but is his power legit? I may need to make a move soon to replace Guzman for Kipnis BUT only if both of these conditions hold true: Kipnis keeps this up ROTW and Guzman eventually gets less PT. If Guzman will do this ROTW, he’ll be a killer!
And can I throw in a football question? In a 12 team 2 QB league (4 pts per passing TD) how early do you take an elite QB and when do you grab your second QB? Does your answer change if there are 14 teams?
Thanks!
By Brian on Aug 11, 2011
In an 6×6 18 team mixed dynasty league that uses ops and k/bb as the extra cats. I’m in rebuilding mode. I’ve been offered my Masterson for his Hak Ju-Lee. My MLB staff consists of Lester, Masterson, Stauffer, B. Colon, Zito, Collmenter, Alex Torres, Juan Nicasio, Drabke, Chapman, Francis, Alfredo Simon, and Andrew Miller.
My minor league roster for SP consists of Teheran, Chris Archer, Bettances, John Lamb and Drake Britton (BOS).
My MiLB MI is weak…DeShields Jr. and Hector Gomez (COL). I’d replace Gomez with Lee if I made the deal.
Interested to hear your thoughts. Let me know if you’d like a little more info. Appreciate the help.
By harry on Aug 11, 2011
Do you see Yonder Alonso going to an A.L. team in a trade this winter.
Prisoner
By Ray Flowers on Aug 11, 2011
Harry – Alonso can play first base, he just won’t be doing it in Cincy.
With so many teams already possessing a slugger at first, Alonso might need to hit the AL so that he could see time at DH as well. Your suggestion makes a lot of sense. The answer comes down to who will give the Reds the most in a deal, and there is really no way to know the answer to that question.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 11, 2011
Brian – Hak Ju-Lee has a decent glove, plenty of speed, and he has a nice approach at the dish. Tough to deal Masterson for him though – Hak has no at-bats over High-A. He appears likely to be in the minors all year next year, potentially all of 2013 as well. Can you wait that long? I look at your staff, and Colon/Zito/Collmenter/Simon = not seeing much I like there.
I’d pass on the deal since I don’t have much loved for your starting rotation.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 11, 2011
Rob – Guzman is killing it right now. I don’t know how he qualifies at MI in your league, he hasn’t appeared at 2B or SS in his 53 game major league career. He can’t keep up a .388 BABIP, so that average is gonna come down. The Padres offense ain’t great, as you know, so if he is still hitting when Rizzo is brought up, I’d have to think they would find a spot for him in the OF.
Kipnis is a 20 homer bat. I dont know where the recent run has come from. Actually I do – it’s total luck. His current HR.F rate is 40%. If he posts a 15% mark next year I’d be surprised.
Guzman is 27 yrs old and has 143 career big league at-bats. Dont get too carried away with him.
FOOTBALL: Answers change based on rosters and league size. In a lg with 2 QBs starting, problem is everyone will go too early for QBs to avoid getting shut out. If you want one of the top guys, you won’t be able to wait past the third round in most instances… might even have to pull the trigger in the 2nd if you want an elite one.
By Rob on Aug 11, 2011
ESPN has him SS/1B eligible so I’m going to ride the lightning as long as possible!
Guzman is my replacement for R.Weeks and Kipnis will be a temporary plug-in for B.Phillips. Any news on either of those guys?
Weeks possibly a mid-september return and Phillips back early next week?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 11, 2011
Rob- Weeks likely still a few weeks away in best case scenario. Phillips is day to day, but it does seem possible that he will be out through the weekend.
By Mike on Aug 11, 2011
What are your thoughts on Roy Oswalt moving forward? I have yet to activate Oswalt from my DL, mainly because I don’t know who to drop. Here are the candidates: Bud Norris, Jonathan Sanchez, Jon Rauch (afraid of possibly giving an opponent cheap saves), or Michael Brantley/Dustin Ackley (but they are my only reserve hitters).
By Ray Flowers on Aug 12, 2011
Mike – Hard to know with Oswalt. It’s all about health. He was throwing hard the other day which is a great sign, but his wonky back is a huge concern. I’d bet he will tough it out, though that might be to the detriment of his production. At this point, I’d drop Sanchez to activate Oswalt. Sanchez might not even be given another start as he looks totally lost right now. Great arm when healthy, but he just isn’t right at the moment.
By Terry on Aug 12, 2011
Just been given an offer to trade 1b/3b Sandoval, and 3b/SS Peralta for 1b/3b Youkilis … I have Choo coming off the DL and need a spot. 10 team mixed Roto. Is this too much for Youk? Will he return to form to be my starting 1B? I have Castro as my starting SS. Your thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 12, 2011
Terry – Castro is fine at SS. Peralta brings more power of course, but the average is uncharted territory. Still, he isn’t worse than Youkilis to this point, and he also qualifies at two spots\, so I don’t see how it makes any sense to deal Peralta and Sandoval for Youkilis.
Choo is no lock to be a star. He’s coming back off injury, didnt get enough minor lg work, and we wasn’t very good earlier in the year when he was on the field.
By Walter on Aug 14, 2011
Hi Ray,
Great football guide the donation was well worth it!
Which SP do you like better for ROTW – Kuroda or Worley?
I am in 2nd place -so this would be for my playoff setting – only can keep one.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 14, 2011
Walter- Glad you enjoyed the NFL Guide. Good to hear.
ROTW go Kuroda. He has the history, and slightly better skills. Worley is due for a drop off – 21 hits in 17 innings, 12 ER in that time as well. It could continue as well.