Mailbag: August 23, 2011
August 23rd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account. Keep em coming ladies and gents.
1st place in saves, up 12 on next guy. Bad idea to drop Neftali Feliz and pick up an SP? I have Craig Kimbrel and Drew Storen as my active RPs.
– @silaPssoR
A 30 save closer gets about five saves a month (there are six months in a season). There are roughly five weeks left in the regular season. Let’s say that equates to seven saves. If you have two guys operating at that level, Kimbrel and Storen certainly have been elite save options, then you would record 14 saves the rest of the way from that duo even if you let Feliz go (for more on how amazing that Kimbrel has been this season see Best Duo Ever?). Since the fella in second place is 12 saves behind he’s going to have a long way to go to catch you since. I’d say that unless both Kimbrel and Storen crap out (not likely), and unless the guy in second place has four quality saves men on his team, that you would be safe making the move away from Feliz to add a quality starter for the stretch run. Just hope the fella in second doesn’t add Feliz.
Freddy Garcia or Mike Minor ROTW?
– @BobOfBowie
Garcia has had a rather remarkable season for a guy who was left for dead, that is when he isn’t playing with steak knives (he should return to pitch on Saturday for the Yankees). Despite a league average WHIP of 1.31, Garcia has managed to win 10 games while posting a solid 3.16 ERA. He was also on a role allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of 10 outings before the setback. Still, his K/9 is poor (5.96), his K/BB league average (2.19) and his GB/FB ratio poor (0.90). He simply doesn’t grade out very well when you break down his skills.
Minor has pitched well since being recalled to the bigs. Over his last three outings he has gone 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. More impressively he has racked up 20 Ks and allowed just four walks in those 17.1 innings. Add in his last start in June and he’s struck out 29 against five walks while posting a 2.96 ERA the last four times he’s taken the hill. It’s taking him a while to get going, Brandon Beachy kind of stole his thunder in Atlanta (more on that in a minute), but Minor is starting to flash the skills that made him one of the top left-handed youngsters headed into the season.
Minor is the better arm, the “upside” play that everyone loves to target. However, he’s quite possibly going to lost his spot in the Braves’ rotation. With Jair Jurrjens already back, and Tommy Hanson (shoulder) about a 10 or so days away, Minor doesn’t appear likely to remain a starter. If you need the wins go with Garcia, but realize the better pitcher at this point is actually Minor.
Add Brandon Beachy and drop Ubaldo Jimenez?
– @TheGregFocker
Beachy continues to impress this season. Since July 20th he has made six starts and allowed more than two earned runs just one time. In fact, his ERA in that stretch is 2.48, his WHIP 1.07, his K/9 rate 9.7 and his K/BB ratio is 3.25. He’s clearly locked in right now.
As for Jimenez, yikes. Things weren’t great in Colorado (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but they’ve gone horribly wrong with the Tribe (7.29 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). Over his last six outings he’s allowed fewer than four earned runs just one time. He’s also failed to last more than five innings five times. That’s right, he’s gone more than five innings just once since July 20th. He’s still striking guys out, he has 22 in his last 21 innings, but it’s too little to get excited about at this point.
As much as I want to believe in Ubaldo, to turn to him given his track record and the lack of it with Beachy, there’s simply no objective way that I can say choosing Ubaldo over Brandon right now makes any sense.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Brandon Beachy, Craig Kimbrel, Drew Storen, Freddy Garcia, Mike Minor, Neftali Feliz, Saves, Ubaldo Jimenez
By Nick on Aug 23, 2011
Do you think it’s worth picking Logan Morrison up in a 10 team, head to head league?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 24, 2011
Nick – In a 10 tm league, no, I do not think it’s worth picking up LoMo unless you are completely desperate.
He has only two steals on the year.
His .327 OBP is league average.
He has hit .213 over his last 63 games.
He’ll knock in some runs, 30 in his last 36 games, but you’re going to pay a pretty steep price for them in a 10 team lg.
By Ryan on Aug 24, 2011
Ray, NL only league: I have both Homer Bailey and Bud Norris and am thinking of waiving one of them to pick up Sergio Romo (as a handcuff for Brian Wilson) as well as potential help in WHIP/ERA which are both close categories. What are your thoughts? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Aug 24, 2011
Ryan – Did you see today’s piece? http://baseballguys.com/2011/08/24/waiver-wire-claims/
The Giants might be adding Heath Bell, and that would limit the value of Romo.
Romo should be back this week, he’s throwing, but there is still no timetable for his return. Also remember— that a guy like Romo may have, MAY have, 15 innings left. At this point, even a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 15 innings isn’t going to move the needle much with your team.
By Luke on Aug 25, 2011
Ray, I’ve got a 10 team, mixed, head to head league. With Youk on the DL I picked up Lawrie(2nd and 3rd eligable) for 3rd base. Im going to add a bench hitter for insurance in the playoffs since our rosters lock and no acquisitions are allowed. Ryan Roberts is available and I’m leaning toward snagging him because of his position flexability (2nd, 3rd, and OF). I’ve got Cano at second so Lawrie’s eligibility probably won’t help me much at second. Which 2 of the 3 players (Youk, Lawrie, Roberts) would you roll with for the stretch run?
By Ray Flowers on Aug 25, 2011
Luke – Roberts is a nice add for flexibility, and in a league where you rosters lock, that’s an ideal add because you have to make sure that you have a player to put into your lineup if your main starter is injured (it’s why a guy like Wigginton is always so useful year after year).
As for who to play, you go Lawrie and Roberts next week cause Youk isn’t eligible until then. After that, see where the other two hitters are at before making your decision in 10 days.