Halloween & Cardinals World Champs

  Today is the day that the veil between the living the dead is the thinnest, it’s All Hallow’s Eve. There’s candy for the kids an eye candy for the adults, but generally people are unaware just what they are celebrating on Halloween. One of the best authors on the subject, David Skal, can be seen here giving a little rundown on the history of the holiday. Hopefully you will get a chance to explore the wonderful holiday that allows you to be someone else (at different points on my weekend long celebration, I was Night Owl of Watchmen fame, The Dark Knight and Captain America – I rocked it with the shield).

Here are a few movie selections if you’re looking for something to watch tonight.

Frankenstein – The iconic Universal film starring Boris Karloff as the Monster. The definitive version of the Mary Shelley’s masterpiece is timeless even though it’s from 1931. The 1935 sequel, Bride of Frankenstein, is equally interesting with plenty of dark humor, and some even consider it the superior film.

Texas Chainsaw Massacre – It’s never been equaled for the raw emotional intensity that it evokes. Tobe Hooper’s classic is as creepy an unsettling as any story that’s ever been put to celluloid.

Trick R’ Treat – A wonderful compilation of stories that include a psychotic pumpkin, a female werewolf striptease, and just a little bit of the history of the holiday’s traditions mixed in.

Halloween – Often imitated by never duplicated, this 1978 classic from John Carpenter is “the father” of slasher films. Virtually every horror movie you have ever seen borrows something from this classic about the unstoppable force that is Michael Myers.

Now to baseball…

The Cardinals won their 11th World Series title, the second most in baseball history to the Yankees who have a whopping total of 27 championships. Here are some other facts from the Cardinals improbable run.

The Cards are only the second team to be one strike from elimination who were able to win the title. The other time it happened was the Mets in 1986.

There have only been six teams since 1969 to be 10 or more games out of the playoffs on August 1st and still make the playoffs. The only other team from this group to win the title, other than the Cardinals of course who were at one point 10.5 games behind the Braves, was the Mets’ miracle bunch from 1969.

Lance Berkman finished off his first season in St. Louis in grand style. Berkman hit .432 in the Series, an in the playoffs he batted .312 with a .413 OBP for the Cards (his regular season numbers were eerily close at .301 and .412).

Chris Carpenter won Game 7 and is now 7-0 in his career in home starts in the playoffs. He was 4-0 overall in the 2011 playoffs and his nine career playoff wins are the most of any active hurler.

Allen Craig was a star in the playoffs, especially in the World Series. In Games 1 &2 he had pinch hit RBI singles off of Alexi Ogando to put the Cards in the lead. He also hit three homers with a 1.154 OPS in the Series.

David Freese was named the World Series MVP. He finished the 2011 playoffs with 21 RBI, the most in the history of the game. Of course the extra playoff rounds help push his numbers past some of the “old timers,” but still, you have to be impressed when anyone averages more than an RBI an outing in the playoffs.

Albert Pujols had that massive outing in Game 3 in which he had five hits (three homers), six RBI and four runs scored. In the other six games of the World Series Pujols had all of one hit in 19 at-bats. He still hit .353 with a 1.155 OPS over the course of the playoffs.

And it wouldn’t be a post season wrap up if I didn’t mention the Rangers and their woes. The club from Texas became the first team since the Braves in 1991-92 to lose in the World Series in back-to-back seasons. Oh, and one more little diddy. The Rangers dropped Games 6 & 7, the first time that they had lost back-to-back games since August.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Game 7

The Cardinals were, not once but twice, one out from elimination on Thursday night, but both times they rallied for one of the most dramatic endings to a game in World Series history. As a result of their 10-9 victory in the 11th inning over the Rangers, the scene is set for Game 7 tonight at 8:05 PM EDT. Here are some random thoughts about everything playoffs.

This was just the third time in the history of the World Series that a team came back from being one out from elimination. The 1986 Mets accomplished the feat. Some of you will remember that contest. I will venture to guess though that not a single person reading this piece will remember the other time it occurred. It was before the Vietnam War. It predated World War II. My goodness, it was even before World War I. The other time it happened was when the 1911 Giants pulled off the trick.

The Cardinals have won more Game 7′s in the World Series than any other team. They have gone 7-3 in their 10 chances.

Speaking of World Series titles, most know the Yankees lead the way with 27 championships since 1903. How many of you realized that the Cardinals are second on that list with 10? Speaking of championships, the Rangers are one of eight teams that have yet to taste World Series triumph (Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Ray and Nationals). Amongst those clubs, none has been a team longer than the Rangers who are one year older than the Astros.

There were 393 pitches thrown in Game 7.

Neftali Feliz had not blown a save chance in 17 postseason appearances heading into Game 6.

David Freese is just killing it this postseason. Besides hitting .393 with a .448 OBP, he’s also sporting a Bondsian 1.235 OPS. Freese has gone deep five times and hit seven triples in just 17 games as he has plated 19 runners. Oh, and that walk-off homer from last night was just the fifth in a Game 6 or Game 7 in the history of the World Series (the last to pull off the trick was Joe Carter in 1993 for the Blue Jays). You would be hard pressed to find a more productive postseason in the history of the game.

Nelson Cruz has an injured groin, but he’s expected to play in Game 7. He’s tied Barry Bonds (2002) and Carlos Beltran (2004) for most homers in a single postseason with eight. Speaking of a wonderful run in the playoffs, Cruz has those eight homers and 16 RBI in 16 postseason games. He’s only batting .241, but he does have a 1.023 OPS for the Rangers.

Josh Hamilton is all beat up. A 30 homer threat every year, it took him 61 at-bats to hit his first postseason home run in Game 6. Hamilton has been a shell of his powerful self this postseason (.273/.292/.409).

To close… did you actually count out the Cardinals last night? You do remember that they came back from a 10.5 game deficit to overtake the Braves for the NL Wild Card, right?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alex Avila

When it comes to elite level play at the catcher’s position in 2011, Alex Avila is right at the top of the list. He hit for average, he hit for power, an in the end he may have been the best value at the position giving his meager draft day cost. Let’s take a look at his 2011 effort and try to come up with a game plan of how he should be treated in 2012 drafts.

Over the first two seasons of his career Avila, the Tigers’ backstop, had appeared in 104 games with 355 at-bats. In that time he hit a ordinary .237 with 12 homers, 45 RBI and 37 runs scored. He also posted a .327 OBP, two points below the league average, and his .383 SLG was well below the league mark of .411. None of that pointed to a massive breakout in 2011 as his OBP of .389 actually bettered his career SLG percentage coming into the year. All told he fell just a couple of hits short of batting .300 (he finished at .295), as he hit 19 homers, drove in 82 runs, scored 63 times and posted an impressive .895 OPS. In the end he finished third at the position in batting average, sixth in homers, third in RBI, sixth in runs, and first in OBP/SLG/OPS. Told you he had a remarkable season.

How did he have so much success? He walked a fair amount helping to that great OBP, and those free passes helped to offset a K-rate that reach nearly a quarter of his at-bats (23.8 percent). As a result of the high punch out total, his 0.56 BB/K mark was just barely better than the league average. That doesn’t speak too well for his ability to push for a .300 average, and there are other reasons to be concerned about his ability to be an elite option in the batting average category. His line drive rate of 21.7 percent is a bit elevated, but after a 21.5 percent mark in 2010 it might just be that he hits a few more line drives than most (his level is certainly sustainable). However, there is a miniscule chance that he will be able to replicate his BABIP success even with that strong line drive rate. After posting marks of .308 and .278 his first two abbreviated campaigns, numbers right in line with the .290-.300 big league average, that number flew all the way up to .366 in 2011. Avila doesn’t hit enough line drives for that number to be sustainable, and being a painfully slow runner will not allow him to outrun those grounders that are almost a necessity to sustain that stratospheric level. The bottom line is that he could hit just as many line drives as he did in 2011 and still see his actually batting average fall .020 points.

As for the homers, it seems possible that he could sustain his production in that 15-20 range. In his last year in the minors in 2009 he hit 12 bombs in 93 games, and last year’s total of 19 wasn’t out of the realm of the expected for a player who also posted a fly ball rate of 40.5 percent and a 13.8 HR/F ratio. However, it should be pointed out that there is also a fair chance that his HR/F ratio will regress a bit in 2012, meaning that he might have a hard time matching, let alone eclipsing, his 2011 homer total.

So where do you draft Avila in 2012? It certainly wouldn’t be a stretch to have him in the top-5 for next season, but I would hazard caution in terms of expectations. Avila should have another solid season, but there just aren’t that many catchers that post back-to-back efforts of .295-19-80 (in fact, only two catchers have done that in the 21st century, and they are both retired – Mike Piazza in 2000-01 and Javier Lopez in 2003-04). That’s right, there’s no Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez or Brian McCann on that list. Moreover, the catcher’s position is fraught with danger because of the ever present injury risk, so I’m never going to reach on a catcher at the draft table. I expect Avila to be over-drafted next season, but there is still a very reasonable expectation that he will once again be a top-10 catcher in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: C.J. Wilson

The best lefty on the free agent market, if not the best starting pitcher available regardless of the arm he chucks the ball with, is C.J. Wilson. He’s been pretty darn awful in the playoffs the past two years, he just can’t seem to throw strikes this year, but that doesn’t take away from his excellent work the last two years on the hill during the regular season. Here are those two efforts, and when you look at them it’s easy to see why someone might throw untold millions of dollars at him this offseason.

2010: 15-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 170 Ks in 204 IP
2011: 16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 Ks in 223.1 IP

Since 2010 was his first big league season as a starter, many were waiting for him to do it again before buying in. Well, consider that group of outcasts sold as he not only repeated his 2010 effort, he actually improved upon it.

Why was Wilson successful? Let me count the ways.

(1) He took the ball 34 times and worked deep into games in 2011. That always gives a hurler a chance to rack up the wins.

(2) He upped his K-rate to 8.30 per nine. That’s pretty impressive for two reasons. First, it was a significant improvement on his 7.50 mark from 2010. Second, it was actually better than his 8.10 career mark.

(3) He keeps inducing ground balls. 2011 was his seventh season in the big leagues, and for the seventh time he posted a ground ball rate of at least 49 percent. Because of all those grounders he slightly upped his 1.47 GB/FB ratio from 2010 to 1.55.

(4) All those grounders also allowed him to stay away from the big fly which helps him to limit the big innings. Wilson allowed a HR/F mark of 8.8 percent, slightly below the 9-10 percent big league average, and smack dab on his career mark.

(5) He’s done all of this pitching in the American League in a ballpark that clearly favors the offense. A move to a different park, or at least to the NL, would certainly help.

So, as a 31 year old lefty coming off two near elite seasons, are there any concerns? There’s at least one. Wilson made 10 starts this year against the Athletics (six) and the Mariners (four). In  those 10 outings Wilson went 6-3 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take away those 10 outings and Wilson went 10-4 with a 3.18 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are still strong numbers, but they are less impressive than what he did when pitching against the lowest scoring team in baseball (the Mariners), and the 12th team out of 14 in the AL (the Athletics). So I had to stretch to find something negative.

There might be some legitimate concerns about Wilson’s age, he’ll be 31 in a few weeks, but given that he has thrown more than 75 innings only twice in his seven year big league career there shouldn’t be too much worry about a breakdown. He’s also a lefty, an as I say all the time, he possesses the best skills combo a pitcher can have – he’s a strike out and ground ball hurler. All of that sets up Wilson to be the highest paid arm on the free agent market. Given his performance the last two seasons it’s a fair bet that whomever pays him will also see a nice return on that investment… if he can stay healthy.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review – Relievers

Relief pitching, by nature of the importance placed upon the role of closer (i.e. saves), is one of the hardest positions to predict with accuracy year after year. We always have guys come out of nowhere that no one even thought about selecting on draft day (Sergio Santos, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon), and with relievers fantasy value tied so closely to a managers decision to use a certain hurler in the 9th inning, the position is a landmine that take a lot of careful navigating. How did I do in avoiding those explosive devices in 2011? Let’s see.

To see my 2011 rankings click on Top-50 Relief Pitchers.

HITS

Jonathan Axford (#6): It can be argued that he was the most effective closer in the NL as he racked up a league leading 46 saves (tied with Craig Kimbrel), while blowing only two save chances. Toss in a 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 86 Ks in 73.2 innings and you have yourself a dominating season.

Joel Hanrahan (#10): My crowning call of the position, Hanrahan had an ADP in the late 20′s or early 30′s when I wrote my initial piece. Every bit as effective as Axford, Hanrahan had 40 saves in 44 chances, posted career best ratios (1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), held batters to a .221 average, and posted an impressive K/BB ratio of 3.82.

Jonny Venters (#36): He  was one of the 10 best relievers in baseball, though his fantasy worth wasn’t that high because he only had five saves. Still, he was amazingly effective with a 9.82 K/9, a 1.84 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a stupendous, off the charts amazing, 5.29 GB/FB ratio.

Kenley Jansen (#39): How historic was his 2011 effort? Check out the details in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

MISSES

Joakim Soria (#8): The Royals kept saying he was fine, but his performance dictated otherwise. Soria posted a three year low with an 8.95 K/9 mark, he gave up more line drive than ever before (21 percent), and for the first time had a bating average against above .220 (he finished at .259). He also saw his ERA rise by nearly two runs (4.03), posted the worst WHIP of his career (1.28) and had a four year low in saves (28).

Matt Thornton (#13): He had an epically bad first two weeks of the season, and while he recovered late in the year, the damage was done and he was never given another chance to pitch in the 9th inning. He  posted solid numbers (3.32 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 3.17 BB/9) but it was far below expectations.

Jonathan Broxton (#14): His arm just wasn’t right all year, and he eventually had to shut things down after multiple starts and stops. In the end he had seven saves in just 12.2 innings of work, needed elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies,” and now faces an uphill battle to return to significance in 2012.

Brad Lidge (#16): He was supposed to be healthy in late April, and the club didn’t trust Ryan Madson at all. Well, Lidge’s injury lingered leading to only 19.1 innings pitched (1.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.77 K/BB) while Madson excelled as a closer for the first time (32 saves in 34 chances).

Ryan Franklin (#20): I did something I never do here – I went with role over skills. What did it get you if you made the same mistake, something I ALWAYS preach against? How about one save, an 8.46 ERA, 1.84 WHIP over 27.2 innings of work.

Craig Kimbrel (#23): I wasn’t sure if he would close 100 percent of the time for the Braves which is why I had him so low on the list. Shame on me. I broke down how amazing he was in 2011 in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

Alexei Ogando (#49): That’s right, how quickly things can change. At the time the original piece was written on March 10th, 2011, Ogando was still in the mix to possibly close for the Rangers (they were still contemplating using Neftali Feliz as a starter). We all know what happened as Ogando was inserted into the starting rotation and had a strong season  for the Rangers (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Hits

Pitching is the variable that we all struggle with from season to season. Predicting any players future performance based on the past is always filled with uncertainty, and only good detective work can get us close to predicting something that we really can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy. That quest for prediction perfection is even more difficult when it comes to pitchers than it is with hitters. That’s just the nature of the beast. Therefore, don’t be too hard on anyone who makes a mistake or two along the way – it’s just not that easy to do.

Back in March I posted my Top-100 Starting Pitchers article. In PART I I’ll discuss some of my “hits” while saving my “misses” for Part II.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

HITS

Clayton Kershaw (#7): The NL’s Triple Crown winner tied Ian Kennedy for the league lead with 21 victories, posted a major league best 2.28 ERA, and whiffed 248 batters, just two behind Justin Verlander for the major league lead. He was everything we all knew he could be, an at just 23 years old, it’s scary to think that Kershaw could repeat this effort for years to come.

James Shields (#24): I took a lot of heat for putting Shields in my top-25 after he went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA for the Rays in 2010. Consider me vindicated. Shields pitched more innings (249.1) at greater effect than he had at any point in his career. Shields led baseball with 11 complete games (only Roy Halladay had more than six, he finished with eight), and his four shutouts tied Derek Holland for the AL lead. Shields also finished third in the AL in ERA (2.82) and strikeouts (225) and was fifth in WHIP (1.04). Spectacular.

Josh Beckett (#26): I wrote all about why Beckett would rebound in Is Josh Beckett Finished? Did you read the article and buy into what I was selling?

Clay Buchholz (#52): I warned everyone to be careful with Clay who was being over drafted because he was a Red Sox and because he posted a sterling 2.33 ERA in 2010. His ERA was still solid at 3.48 and his WHIP of 1.29 wasn’t bad at all, it just wasn’t good enough considering where he was drafted by some (not to mention that injuries limited him to just 82.2 innings).

Scott Baker (#53): He was everything I said he would be this year for the Twins. Baker had a career best 8.22 K/9 mark which led to a career best tying 3.88 K/BB ratio, and some sterling ratios (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately the injury bug struck once again as he was limited to just 23 appearances, 21 starts, leading to only 134.2 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman (#54): The skills were on full display this year with only the Nationals innings pitched limit, he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, to slow him down. Jordan had a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and superb 4.00 K/BB ratio because he simply refused to issue a free pass. He’s good enough to have a whole bunch of efforts like this one.

Bud Norris (#72): He made 30 starts for the first time in his career (31 actually), and posted 176 Ks in the process. His WHIP also came down to 1.33 as he cut a full batter off his walk rate getting it down to nearly the league average at 3.39. I’m considering him a “hit” even though he won just six games because his ERA went down a run, his BB/9 down 1.12, his WHIP was down 0.15 and his innings went up 33.2 from 2010.

Justin Masterson (#76): This guy owns a nice combo of strikeout/ground ball stuff, the ideal makeup for a starting pitcher. He threw a career best 216 innings leading to a career-high 12 victories, and even though his K/9 fell to a career worst 6.58 causing some trepidation, he cut nearly a batter off his walk rate leading to his first K/BB ratio better than two at 2.43. He also keep the grounders coming, 55.1 percent of batted balls, and should be in line for a long and successful career.

Tim Stauffer (#78), Aaron Harang (#82): You can find my season ending review of both of these guys in Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Shortstop

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2011 SHORTSTOP Top-10
1 Hanley Ramirez
2 Troy Tulowitzki
3 Jimmy Rollins
4 Jose Reyes
5 Derek Jeter
6 Alexei Ramirez
7 Stephen Drew
8 Elvis Andrus
9 Yunel Escobar
10 Rafael Furcal

Ramirez had a four year run going of hitting at least .300 with 21 homers, 67 RBI, 92 runs and 27 steals. He didn’t reach a single one of those numbers in 2011 (.243-10-45-55-20). He eventually had surgery on his injured shoulder, and the hope is that he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

Tulowitzki hit 30 homers and powered a career best 105 runners across the plate as he hit .302 and posted a third straight OPS of over .900 at .916. However, he also scored a three year low with 81 runs, and he failed to record double-digit steals for the first time in three years with nine.

Rollins rebounded from an injury induced slump in 2010, but the numbers were still far from the elite totals that he had posted in the past (.268-16-63-87-30). At 32 years old he can still be a mighty productive player, but keep your expectations in check when drafting him in 2012.

Reyes wants someone to show him the money. He went out and hit .337, the best mark in the NL, and he scored 101 runs for the Metropolitans. That run scored mark was impressive given that he appeared in only 126 games, but he stole “only” 39 bags, a disappointing total for a guy who stole at least 56 bases each year from 2005-2008.

Jeter hit six homers, the first time he ever failed to go deep 10 times, and he also scored a career worst 84 runs. On the positive tip he produced 61 RBI, an 8th straight year of at least that number, an a late run at the dish resulted in him hitting .297 on the year.

Ramirez always seems to be slumping, but in the end there are few more productive, and consistent, performers at the position. For the fourth time in four years he hit 15 homers with 68 RBI, and he scored 81 runs, swiped seven bags, and hit a passable .269.

Drew fractured his right ankle and as a result suited up for just 86 games. He was productive when on the field with five homers, 45 RBI and 44 runs scored, but he simply didn’t play enough to be worthy of much of anything this season.

Andrus slightly improved his average up to .279, the same trick he pulled off with his OBP of .347 (both three year bests). Andrus also posted 3-years bests in runs (96), hits (164), doubles (27), RBI (60) and steals (37).

Escobar had a lost 2010 season causing many to forget, or at least overlook, him on draft day. I wasn’t one of those who walked by without looking. Escobar ended up producing a season that fell right in line with his 2008-09 efforts as he hit .290 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, 77 runs scored an a .782 OPS for the Blue Jays.

Furcal had yet another injury filled an unproductive season split between the Dodgers and the Cardinals hitting just .231 with eight homers, 28 RBI, 44 runs and nine steals in just 87 games. Per game he was  productive in the counting categories, but for a second straight year the 34 year old Furcal failed to appear in 100 games.

Hit: Yunel Escobar #9

Bust: Rafael; Furcal #10
It’s too easy to list Hanley Ramirez, and since we all know how pathetic he was, it doesn’t serve much purpose to blast him here again. We all know he was the biggest bust in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Third Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2011 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee

Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.

Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.

Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).

Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.

Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.

Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).

Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.

Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.

Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.

McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.

Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.

Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).

By Ray Flowers