Player Profile: C.J. Wilson
October 26th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
The best lefty on the free agent market, if not the best starting pitcher available regardless of the arm he chucks the ball with, is C.J. Wilson. He’s been pretty darn awful in the playoffs the past two years, he just can’t seem to throw strikes this year, but that doesn’t take away from his excellent work the last two years on the hill during the regular season. Here are those two efforts, and when you look at them it’s easy to see why someone might throw untold millions of dollars at him this offseason.
2010: 15-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 170 Ks in 204 IP
2011: 16-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 206 Ks in 223.1 IP
Since 2010 was his first big league season as a starter, many were waiting for him to do it again before buying in. Well, consider that group of outcasts sold as he not only repeated his 2010 effort, he actually improved upon it.
Why was Wilson successful? Let me count the ways.
(1) He took the ball 34 times and worked deep into games in 2011. That always gives a hurler a chance to rack up the wins.
(2) He upped his K-rate to 8.30 per nine. That’s pretty impressive for two reasons. First, it was a significant improvement on his 7.50 mark from 2010. Second, it was actually better than his 8.10 career mark.
(3) He keeps inducing ground balls. 2011 was his seventh season in the big leagues, and for the seventh time he posted a ground ball rate of at least 49 percent. Because of all those grounders he slightly upped his 1.47 GB/FB ratio from 2010 to 1.55.
(4) All those grounders also allowed him to stay away from the big fly which helps him to limit the big innings. Wilson allowed a HR/F mark of 8.8 percent, slightly below the 9-10 percent big league average, and smack dab on his career mark.
(5) He’s done all of this pitching in the American League in a ballpark that clearly favors the offense. A move to a different park, or at least to the NL, would certainly help.
So, as a 31 year old lefty coming off two near elite seasons, are there any concerns? There’s at least one. Wilson made 10 starts this year against the Athletics (six) and the Mariners (four). In those 10 outings Wilson went 6-3 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take away those 10 outings and Wilson went 10-4 with a 3.18 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are still strong numbers, but they are less impressive than what he did when pitching against the lowest scoring team in baseball (the Mariners), and the 12th team out of 14 in the AL (the Athletics). So I had to stretch to find something negative.
There might be some legitimate concerns about Wilson’s age, he’ll be 31 in a few weeks, but given that he has thrown more than 75 innings only twice in his seven year big league career there shouldn’t be too much worry about a breakdown. He’s also a lefty, an as I say all the time, he possesses the best skills combo a pitcher can have – he’s a strike out and ground ball hurler. All of that sets up Wilson to be the highest paid arm on the free agent market. Given his performance the last two seasons it’s a fair bet that whomever pays him will also see a nice return on that investment… if he can stay healthy.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: C.J. Wilson
By Olivia Wilde on Oct 26, 2011
He’s also straight edge, has a large television set, knows what “film noir” means, and he loves fire pits. And he writes screen plays. The word to describe C.J. rhymes with “whooooosh”.
By Ray Flowers on Oct 26, 2011
Olivia – I also love Film Noir (Dark City is a good book – and Double Indemnity is one of my favorite flicks). I’ve always had an affinity for fire. I write sports stuff… so when are you going to leave your husband and make a play for this guy?
By Jonathan on Oct 26, 2011
Ray, I have a football question for you. Looking for a bye week sub at WR off the waiver wire for a 12 team non ppr. Considering Deion Branch, Michael Jenkins, Demaryius Thomas or Antonio Brown. I was thinking Thomas for sure but I may also have to play Tebow if Stafford is out and that doesn’t seem like a good idea to play both of them against the Lions Defense.
Thanks,
Jon
By Steve on Oct 26, 2011
Hey Ray,
I just wanted to see what you thought of the luckiest man in fantasy football – I love football, but have never played fantasy before. This was the team that I drafted and, I’ll be honest, when I was done drafting, I was happy, but I had NO idea:
QB: Cam Newton (15th round)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1st round
WR: Wes Welker (5th round)
WR: Steve Smith (6th Round)
RB: Darren McFadden (2nd Round)
RB: Fred Jackson (10th Round)
TE: Rob Gronkowski (9th Round)
FLEX W/R: Matt Forte (3rd Round)
BENCH: Antonio Gates (4th Round)
BENCH: Ryan Matthews (7th Round)
BENCH: Matthew Stafford (8th Round)
BENCH: A.J. Green (12th Round)
BENCH: Darren Sproles (13th Round)
DEF: Baltimore (11th Round)
K: David Akers (14th Round)
Here’s the question – Last week, I went with two WRs because I just couldn’t drop anyone – next week I’ll have no QBs and only two WRs… Should I drop Akers and go with no kickers to pick up, gulp, Tavaris Jackson? By the way, this is a 14 team PPR league.
By Ray Flowers on Oct 26, 2011
Jonathan – Looking at your options for Week 8 I would suggest:
Branch often ends up sneaking up on you just when you are about to to give up on him.
Brown would be a highly intriguing option this week against the Pats horrific pass D, especially if Ward is out.
Thomas saw 10 targets last week as Tebow’s main man in the passing game.
Go Brown who is coming off his best game and also has that great matchup.
By Ray Flowers on Oct 26, 2011
Steve – Yep, things kind of working out for the best for you haven’t they? That’s great.
Tarvaris Jackson still isn’t close to 100 percent, so adding him with the expectation of starting him isn’t a great idea, at all. I also don’t like the idea of taking a zero either, especially when Akers has been so effective as a kicker. I’d go the route of a trade. Unless you’re in a keeper league, why not move one of your QBs and maybe Gates, while trying to get another QB and maybe some WR depth?
By Steve on Oct 27, 2011
Ray,
I just sent an offer of Stafford, Gates, and Sproles for Manning and Mike Wallace. The guy accepted within a minute. I’m happy about this week, but worried I messed up with him accepting so quickly. Good trade? Thanks for your help.
By Alan on Oct 27, 2011
Ray,
I have a guy in my league trying to unload Cam Newton. I have Stafford and Tebow at QB. Newton is sounding really interesting now with Stafford’s injury and uncertainty about Tebow. Who would you give up from my roster to get Newton? Thanks
12 Team PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, FLEX[RB, WR, TE], 1TE, 1D, 1K
QB- Stafford, Tebow
RB- Rice, Forte, Bradshaw, McGahee, Murray
WR- Jennings, A. Johnson, Fitzgerald, Lloyd, Little
TE- Graham, Hernandez
D- Seahawks (based on weekly matchups)
K- Hanson
By Ray Flowers on Oct 27, 2011
Steve – Stafford and Manning are pretty close, especially with Stafford being injured. Certainly more upside with Stafford. Gates could be a TE1 ROTW, or he could play 3 games. He’s such an injury risk. Sproles has been a top-10 RB in PPR setups, crazy but true.
I don’t have a huge problem with the deal. You need help at QB cause of the bye. I would have tried a 2for2 here first, sproles/stafford for eli/wallace. That likely would have had a chance of being accepted. Do I think you overpaid? Yeah I do, but if Gates goes down again with the foot, and no one know if he will or wont, this deal wont look too bad.
By Ray Flowers on Oct 27, 2011
Alan – Newton has been a terrific fantasy performer this season, top-3 at the position. However, I wouldn’t mortgage my team to add him, not with Stafford’s ankle issue being minor. Also, when it comes to Tebow, he’s played 6 quarters the last two games that give him a per game avg of 30.0 points per game. For the year, Newton is at 27.1 per game. I’m not saying that Tebow is gonna be a 30 pt guy, in fact that’s implausible. but he could match the 24.5 he put up last week which would leave him 2.6 points behind Newton per week. That’s pretty close.
I’d do Stafford for Newton straight up, maybe add Graham since you have Hernandez, but that’s as far as I would go.
By Alan on Oct 27, 2011
Thanks for the analyzing the situation. It always helps to get another viewpoint.
By Paul on Oct 27, 2011
Football questions on a baseball website…
Come on’ Man!
Ray, Hate to rain on your “negative” but there was 8 NL teams that scored less runs then the A’s did this past season. There were 7 NL teams in the bottom third in 2010 & 9 in 2009.
I think Wilson could be pretty dominate in the NL.
Paul
By Ray Flowers on Oct 27, 2011
Paul – On the piece on Wilson I did say, right after the quote about the A’s and Mariners – So I had to stretch to find something negative.
Thanks for the note, and hopefully the overall tone of the piece was positive… Given his performance the last two seasons it’s a fair bet that whomever pays him will also see a nice return on that investment… if he can stay healthy.