Player Profile: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill was a magnificent option at the second base position in 2009. In 2010 he still powered the long ball but his batting average barely rested above the Mendoza line. In 2011 he went bonkers in the steals category but his power evaporated quicker than Kim Kardashian’s marriage to Kris Humphries (by the way dude, you aren’t doing yourself any favors bad mouthing Kim. Just let it go). The Diamondbacks signed Hill to a 2-year, $11 million deal based upon the success of his past, and his solid finish to the year with the club (.315/.386/.492 over 33 games). As a fantasy player, how should you be evaluating Hill heading into 2012 – should you be thinking, like the Diamondbacks, that a rebound is in the cards?

How good was Hill in the recent past? Fantastic actually. In 2009 he hit .286, socked 36 homers, knocked in 108 runs and scored 103 runs. He won people fantasy leagues in 2009. For a follow up be hit 26 homers, had 68 RBI and scored 70 runs, but his average plummeted all the way down to .205 thanks in no part to an unbelievably low, I mean historically bad, .196 BABIP mark. From 2008-09 Hill was second at the second base position with 62 homers (two behind Dan Uggla), third in RBI with 176 (Uggla had 195, Robinson Cano 194), 6^th in runs scored with 173 (Cano led the way with 206) and third with 121 extra base hits (Cano 148 and Uggla 123). Basically, Hill was a difference maker in the fantasy game. But he hit .205 in 2010 causing tremendous trepidation amongst his owners. When he slumped to just eight homers last season it hardly mattered that his batting average rebounded somewhat to .246. However, he did excite with 21 steals, a massive total for a guy who in six previous seasons had never stolen more than six bags. It was the only thing that saved his 2011 season.

So let’s take a step back here and look at what Hill brings to the field.

Hill hit 36 homers in 2009. He’s not going to repeat that number. His HR/F ratio that year was 14.9 percent, almost 50 percent great than his career mark of 7.9 percent. Speaking of his HR/F rate, the reason he hit only eight homers last season is easily evident – his 2011 HR/F ratio was only 4.2 percent. Add 14.9 to 4.2 and divide by two and you get 9.6 percent, a pretty fair number given his career mark.

Hill stole 21 bases in 2011. Will he repeat that? It’s possible, but given that he had 23 stolen bases in his career before last season you’d be best served in expecting fewer than 20 thefts in 2011.

What about the batting average? Hill has hit as high as .291 in a season, he’s actually done that twice (2006-07), and as low as .205. For his career he has hit .267 and he has more seasons hitting .274 or better (four) than hitting under his career average (three). So why the struggles the past two years? The explanation for 2010 is easy. He simply had one of the worst seasons in modern history. His 10.6 percent line drive rate was comically low for a guy who owns an 18.9 percent career mark. As for his 2011 struggles, those are harder to explain. Hill’s line drive rate soared to 21.2 percent, his best mark in six years, but he still managed a BABIP of .268. Given that line drive rate, one would assume his BABIP would easily eclipse the .300 mark, if not push into the .320′s. I’m therefore just gonna say it – Hill has been unlucky the past two seasons and should have a good chance of seeing his batting average rebound further in 2012.

Let’s put together Hill’s career bests. If we do that we end up with a fantasy line of .291-36-108-103-21. That’s an utterly stupendous effort. Obviously he’ll never do all of that in one season, but the point should be obvious – despite his numbers fluctuating wildly the past couple of years, this guy has tons of talent.

Hill is just 29 years old, an age where he should be reaching his peak and not one where people are questioning if the D’backs erred in giving him a two year deal. I think they did the right thing. I also think that if the baseball gods have any integrity they will return the mojo that Hill has lost the last couple of seasons and allow him to return to being what he should be – a second baseman who is capable enough to be considered a low end starter in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alex Rios

Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10, and he is the topic of my piece today.

Alex Rios was an elite performer in 2010 in his first full season with the White Sox. Rios hit a solid .284, socked 21 homers and knocked in 88 runs. He also managed to record 89 runs scored, and for good measure he tossed in 34 steals. Those numbers left him as the only man in baseball to go .280-20-85-85-30 in 2010. So how in the world did he go from being an elite option in 2010 to an embarrassment in 2011 as he produced a line of .227-13-44-64-11? The knee jerk reaction is that he played over his head in 2011 and that he simply sucks. However, that’s far too simplistic a look for me.

BATTING AVERAGE
Rios has hit .275 for his career. From 2006-08 he hit at least .291 each season, and four times in five years from 2006-10 he hit at least .284. So how in the world did he fall to .227 in ’11? Did he fail to square up the ball? In fact, he did a decent job in that category. Rios posted a 18.4 percent line drive mark that is just 0.8 below his career rate. It was also a 3-year high. Did he have problems with pitch recognition? Well, he did walk at his worst rate (4.7 percent), but since he also struck out less than ever before (2.5 percent better than ever before actually) his 0.40 BB/K mark was right on his career average of 0.39. Was his ground ball to fly ball ratio jacked up? No it wasn’t. Rios posted a 1.08 GB/FB mark, right in line with expectations given his 1.14 career mark. So why the hell did his average dip .050 points in 2011? Can you say bad luck? Rios produced a .237 BABIP despite pretty much everything else looking “normal.” That BABIP was a career worst, it had never been below .273, and was light years removed from his .306 career mark. What I’m saying is that, honestly, Rios didn’t deserve the batting average he produced in 2011.

HOME RUNS
I mentioned Rios’ GB/FB rate above and how it was stable when compared to his career rate. The same could be said about his fly ball rate. Rios owns a mark of 37.7 percent in his career an in 2011 he posted a 39.3 rate. So if he hit as many fly balls as normal, why the dip in his homer rate? Well, he undershot his HR/F rate of 8.7 percent with a mark of 7.0, a seven year low. That certainly had a large part to do with it.

RBI/RUNS SCORED
It’s pretty easy here. When you don’t get hits, it’s hard to knock in runs. When you don’t get hits or take walks to get on base, you just don’t score runs. Just think of it this way. Rios posted a .265 OBP in 2011. His career batting average is .275. Makes no sense right? For the record, his career OBP is still a poor .323, but it’s vastly superior to the embarrassing number he posted in ’11. For the record Part II: from 2006-10 Rios averaged 81 RBI and 85 runs scored a season.

STEALS
Rios swiped a career best 34 bags in 2010 and he also stole 32 bases in 2008. Moreover, from 2008-10 he averaged 30 steals a year so he’d clearly established himself as a fantasy force in that category. So what happened in 2011? You do remember that his OBP was .265 right? He just wasn’t ever on base to steal a bag, and even when he tried to run his success rate was awful at 64.7 percent (his success rate the three previous years were 80.0, 82.8 and 70.8 percent).

Alex Rios will be 31 years old in February, so he’s certainly not at an age when skills erosion seems the likely culprit for his 2011 failures. Rios though has always run hot and cold, it’s just how it is with him, and it’s something you have to be prepared to live with if you roster him. Unfortunately, his cold streak last year lasted almost the entire season. Still, there seems to be little reason to doubt that 2012 should produce better numbers because, if truth be told, he really wasn’t that far “off” in 2011 despite the horrible numbers he ended the year with. Buy him on the cheap, cause he will be cheap, and you’ll likely reap the benefits of a player who will enjoy a nice bounce back season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Grady Sizemore

“We don’t expect Grady Sizemore to play 150 to 160 games like he has in the past,” said  GM Chris Antonetti. “But we expect him to play the vast majority of games next year.” Is that the quote you wanted to read if you were hoping that Grady Sizemore would have a big bounce back season in 2012? Despite the proverbial bar being set extremely low, the Indians invested a relatively minor $5 million backing Sizemore on a one year deal to allow him to return to Cleveland (there are incentives worth $4 million based upon plate appearances an another $500,000 that he could pick up if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year award). How should Sizemore be viewed in the fantasy game for 2012? With extreme caution in my book.

From 2005-2008 Sizemore was easily one of the top-10 outfielders in the fantasy game. In that four year span the average Sizemore effort resulted in 27 homers, 29 steals, 81 RBI and 116 runs scored.  Each of the four years he went at least 20/20 with 100 runs scored, and in 2008 he upped the bar to include 33 homers, 90 RBI and 38 steals (all three of those numbers were career bests). Then, the bottom fell out for Grady. He appeared in just 106 games in 2009. He followed that up with a mere 33 games in 2010. In 2011 things got better, but only marginally, as he appeared in 71 games. Injury after injury with the guys wheels kept him out of action. As a resulted of all the issues with his knees, Sizemore has not only been unable to drag his body out onto the field with any regularity, he’s also failed to generate any type of productivity when he has been on it.

Grady has stolen a mere 17 basses in his last 210 games played. Remember, this was a guy who averaged 29 steals a season over his last four healthy campaigns. Just as disconcerting for Sizemore is the fact that he not only stopped running, he stopped hitting as well. In 832 at-bats over the past three seasons Grady has batted .234 which is .029 points below the league average and .035 points below his career mark. Sizemore also produced a mere .314 OBP, .017 points below the league average and .043 points below his career mark. Finally, his SLG was .413, .006 points below the league mark and .060 points off his career mark. Don’t forget either, that when I say his “career mark” I’m including the poor numbers we’ve seen from him the last three years. If we remove those three awful years, the gap at each number grows substantially. From 2004-08 his slash line was .279/.370/.491 compared to his marks the last three years of .234/.314/.413. That’s like comparing Curtis Granderson to Vernon Wells. I also neglected to mention that he has hit a total of 18 homers over his last 832 at-bats or one every 46.2 at-bats. Prior to the onset of injury, Sizemore averaged a homer every 24.3 at-bats.

So Grady has stopped running, and it would appear he’s also stopped hitting. He’s now coming back off yet another procedure (Sizemore had surgery on his right knee in October, and he never really seemed to make a full recovery from a much more serious microfracture operation on his left knee prior to the 2011 season). While everyone is putting on a happy face, the truth is that it’s been four years since we saw the “real” Grady Sizemore. It’s been four years since he hit at the major league level. It’s been four years since he got on base at the major league level. It’s been four years since his SLG was at the major league level. It’s been four years since he stole bases at anything resembling his previous all-star levels. Now we get his own GM telling the world that the team hopes he will be able to play most of the time in 2012 but that even they aren’t expecting that to mean that he will take the field 150 times in 2012. Does that sound like a guy you want to be rolling with in your fantasy league?

Draft Sizemore at a point where you feel comfortable that his performance will match his cost. Do not draft Sizemore at a point where you think his cost will match his performance. It’s been years since we’ve seen the Sizemore that we all remember building our fantasy rosters around, an until I see that Sizemore on the field, I’m not going to reach for Grady on draft day. If you take a shot on him as your 4th or 5th outfielder in a mixed league, I’d be fine with that, but know full well that the chances of him going 20/20 with 100 runs scored in 2012 is about the same as it is that Mr. Wells will pull off that same trick for the Angels.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Thanksgiving Celebration

We all know what Thanksgiving is all about. It’s about family getting together an eating so much food that you have no choice but to pass out on the couch while watching football. However, do many of you know much about the history of the holiday? I’ll try to change that today.

The History Channel has a nice site devoted to the holiday, even including some videos that describe the holiday. For those of you who aren’t inclined to watch the videos, here are some facts that you should know.

1- Originally the holiday was on the last Thursday in November. In 1939 President Franklin Roosevelt set the date to the 4th Thursday of the month of November. It wasn’t until two years late that the Senate and House officially set the date as the 4th Thursday of the month.

2- Benjamin Franklin proposed that the turkey, and not the Bald Eagle, should be our national bird.

3- Domesticated turkey’s cannot fly. Honestly, they can barely run. However, wild turkey’s, and I’m not talking about the bourbon, can fly short distances and reach speeds up to 25 mph while running. The fastest humans can’t run that quickly.

4- Turkey does contain tryptophan, an amino acid that causes you to get sleepy. However, it’s not like turkey is the only food with tryptophan in it as chicken, pork, beef and cheese also contain it. The most likely reason people get tired after a Turkey Day meal is not the tryptophan, but the ingestion of large amounts of carbohydrates in all the food being consumed.

5- The first NFL game on Thanksgiving was in 1934 when the Lions played the Bears. The Thursday NFL game has taken place every year since other than 1939-44 when World War II was raging. By the way, the first recorded American football game on Thanksgiving was in 1876 when the American Intercollegiate Football Association had their first championship game.

6- 1621 would appear to be the first year that the celebration took place. It’s unclear whether or not the pilgrims used the term “Thanksgiving” to designate the celebration. 1621 was a doozie of a party as well – it lasted for three days. That first celebration did not include desserts of any kind as sugar was a precious commodity. Heck, turkey’s may not have even been on that first menu.

7- Each year the President of the Unites States pardons a turkey who, instead of being led off to slaughter, are sent to farms where they “retire.” For more on that process see Obama’s New Executive Action: Pardoning Turkeys.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Doumit

On Friday last week Ryan Doumit picked his home for the 2012 season, and it will be in Minnesota with the Twins. While the deal seems to be a solid signing for the Twins, one year and $3 million (it also includes performance bonus’), what does this mean for the future of Joe Mauer behind the plate? Moreover, is this a signal that the team isn’t sold on Justin Morneau ever returning to All-Star levels? Does this signing signal the end of Jason Kubel’s tenure with the club (he was offered arbitration)? Those are all questions to ponder for another day as today I’m going to focus on Mr. Doumit.

A passable defensive catcher, Doumit is more prized for his bat. In fact, his best position certainly isn’t behind the dish, it’s probably as a hitter at it. Doumit appeared in 60 games as a catcher in 2011, and he’ll certainly see some time there in 2012. He’ll also likely play some first base, a spot he covered three times last year, and potentially the outfield (he appeared in right field in 18 games in 2010). Doumit will also have the advantage of being able to fill the DH role, and perhaps that will enable him to reach a career best in games played (currently 124 games). And that brings up major sticking point with Doumit – he’s always seemingly hurt. Just look at his games played totals the past seven years: 75, 61, 83, 116, 75, 124 and 77. That’s an average of 87 games a season. Given his constant battles to stay on the field, a move to the AL where he can DH seems like an ideal fit.

Doumit has had so many starts and stops from year to year that it’s often forgotten that he’s a darn good hitter, especially so for a player who qualifies at catcher. I’m gonna lay out the average, OBP and SLG of a handful of players. See if you can guess which one belongs to Doumit.

.273/.374/.474
.271/.334/.442
.271/.338/.451
.262/.328/.415

I know you’ll never guess, so I’ll just let you know who the lines belong to: Jorge Posada, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters.

That’s right, Doumit’s career slash line numbers fit right in with that mix of catchers. Shocked? How about this. Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2. Those aren’t great numbers, but how many catchers reached all five numbers in 2011? The answer is two: Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. If we remove the steals and just ask how many went .271-15-61-54 the group only grows by one more (Miguel Montero).

Remember, the 5×5 numbers I just mentioned are for Doumit’s entire career based on a 450 at-bat season. Will he reach that at-bat total in 2012? A lot of that certainly depends on his health, and we are talking about a guy who has only two 100 games seasons in his career. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Doumit has never, not one time, had 450 at-bats in a season (his career high is 431). Therefore, it’s clear that there is a lot of guesswork going on here. Still, when others reach for a catcher early in your draft it might be wise to sit back, wait a while, and take a chance on the newest Twins’ backstop as he could end up being quite the draft day pickup if he can stay in the lineup.

By Ray Flowers

Nathan to Close for Rangers

The Rangers made a move that will help to shape their ballclub in 2012 on Monday. The club from Texas signed Joe Nathan to a 2-year deal worth $15 million (with a club option for a third year). What does this deal mean for Nathan, and more importantly, the young arm that has filled the role of closer for the Rangers the past couple of seasons?

Nathan was brought into Texas to close. The 37 year old reliever, coming back off Tommy John surgery last season, pitched just 44.2 innings with a 4.84 ERA in 2011 which might cause many to wonder what the Rangers were thinking here. What they realized was that Nathan looked just like his old self in the second half of the season – a very common occurrence for pitchers coming back from TJ surgery who often need some time to round back into shape. Nathan posted the following numbers over his last 24 outings last year: 8.61 K/9, 4.40 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP with a .207 batting average against. That was good enough for the Rangers to believe Nathan will be in 2012 what he was every year from 2004-09, and that was an elite relief pitcher (in those six seasons Nathan’s lowest save total was 36). Nathan was brought in to close for the Rangers in 2012, and he should be very successful in that role.

Now we have to deal with the aftermath of that signing, and that is what happens to Neftali Feliz, who racked up 72 saves the past two years? Teams realize that it’s much easier to find someone to pitch one inning out of the bullpen than it is to find a hurler who can dominate out of the rotation every five days. As such, the plan has always been for Feliz to start for the Rangers. Given the success that the Rangers had in converting C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters the past two years, they clearly have a nice blueprint in place to help aid their hurlers in that transition. The move of Feliz into the rotation might also be an admission that the Rangers do not feel confident that they will be able to retain Wilson who is the top free agent arm on the market.

So what should you expect from Feliz in 2012? Good question. While the move to the rotation will likely reap major rewards at some point, it’s tough to see how he could become a dominant starter this coming season. There are a couple of reasons for that.

(1) A youngster at 23 years old, Feliz has thrown a total of 132.2 innings the past two years for the Rangers. Given that smallish workload, there are serious questions about how far the Rangers will let Feliz go in 2012. Ogando transitioned to the starting rotation and threw 169 innings in 2011 (Wilson was allowed to go 204 innings, but he was much older and had five years of big league experience under his belt). If Feliz was allowed to reach that rather modest total of 170 innings that would be 100 innings more than he has thrown in either of the last two seasons. That’s a huge increase. Given the importance of pitching in the game, and repeated instances of young hurlers having arm issues with major innings pitched increases, Feliz could be looking at a late season shut down, or periodic skipping of starts throughout the year to keep the innings under control.

(2) Feliz effortlessly tosses 96 mph cheese at hitters and that has led to an impressive 164 Ks in 162.2 innings in his career. However, his K-rate fell from 11.32 as a rookie down to 9.22 in 2010 and then 7.80 last season. If he could only strike out 7.80 batters per nine as a reliever last season, how many will he punch out when he is stretched out as a starter?

(3) After posting a BB/9 mark under 2.35 his first two years, Feliz saw that number explode in 2011 up to 4.33. If he can’t bring his walk rate back down, success will be elusive, especially if he repeats his awful 1.80 K/BB ratio from last season.

Let’s add everything up. Granted we’re talking only three years here, and with no season of even 70-innings it’s not a huge sample size, but in the following categories Feliz has seen his performance regress each of the past two years: ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BAA, BABIP, LOB%, xFIP. Is that a trend you wanted to see?

Nathan will be fine as the Rangers’ closer, and barring a physical setback, he should be good to go with his normal 35 saves. As for Feliz, his outlook is less clear. There is no disputing that he has an elite arm, and that one day he could easily vie for the Cy Young award. Still, given his almost across the board struggles last year, and the fact that he’s never thrown 70-innings in a big league season, I’m not going to be one of those folks out there paying for a hurler that I expect to pitch 200 innings with 180 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid 3′s.

 By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ty Wigginton

Ty Wigginton is like a Honda Civic. A Civic isn’t flashy and it certainly doesn’t impress your date when you roll up to her house in it, yet it’s affordable, always gets you there on time and is as trustworthy an option as there is on the road. That’s Wigginton in a nutshell. He isn’t gonna haul 6,000 lbs., he isn’t going to run to 60 mph in 4.6 seconds, and he certainly isn’t gonna boost season ticket sales, but at the end of the day Wigginton just gets it done. I bring this all up because Wigginton was dealt to the Phillies on Sunday as the Rockies seem intent to give Ian Stewart yet another shot to prove himself at third base (or perhaps they might just turn to Brandon Wood, Chris Nelson or Jordan Pacheco until AFL MVP Nolan Arenado is ready to take over at the hot corner?). Wigginton was dealt, along with cash, for a Player To Be Named Late and/or cash. So why would the Rockies want to rid themselves of their Honda Civic?

Wigginton can play all over the field. He suited up for 27 games in the outfield, 36 at first base, and 68 at third base in 2011. Versatility like that always makes Ty a fine final offensive player on a fantasy club. It also enables him to see a lot of playing time as he can fill in at multiple spot. Given that Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard are both coming off surgeries, the addition of Wigginton makes a lot of sense for the Phils (Placido should be ready for opening day, but most reports suggest that Howard could miss most of April).

What about performance?

Wigginton isn’t going to steal many bases, he has only 41 thefts in his career, but he did swipe eight in 2011, a seven year high. Still, he’s not a speed demon. Wigginton also isn’t a batting average option of renown. Ty has a career batting average of .265, and the last two years he’s failed to hit even .250 (.248 and .242) after a 4-year run of hitting at least .273. The main reason for the drop the last two years is that his hit rate, in the .290′s for his career, has left him with a BABIP of .270 and .271 the past two years. I’m inclined to think that it’s because Ty has lost that little bit extra with his bat speed, something that may be show in the fact that his K-rate has gone up a bit the past two years. He could see some improvement with his BABIP, but it’s not a certainty and would likely be a mild bump.

So I’m painting a portrait of a guy who just isn’t very exciting, but that’s because I’ve left out his best trait – his power. Ty has hit 22 or more homers in four of the past six years, an in five of those six years he’s hit at least 15. Given that he’s averaged just 462 at-bats those six years, his average homer total of 20 a season is pretty darn solid, especially from a guy who qualifies at three positions. Ty has seen some slight regression in his HR/FB the past two years after a peak from 2005-08, but his marks of 12.5 and 13.2 percent the past two years are virtually identical to his career 12.7 mark. He should be fine in terms of the power output in 2012.

So what do you do with Wigginton? At the moment it certainly doesn’t seem like he will have a spot in the every day lineup with the Phillies, so expecting 462 at-bats from him this season is likely asking for too much. As such, Wigginton makes for an ideal option in NL only leagues but a bit of a stretch in mixed leagues unless you are in a 15 teamer. He’ll be solid when he plays, and that flexibility certainly makes him a valuable add in the right circumstance, but don’t go a reaching for the Phillies newest addition.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ivan Nova

Ivan Nova won 16 games in 2011 and he pitches for the Yankees. Is that enough to get excited about this young righty heading into 2012?

When you pitch for the Yankees, everyone knows your name. When you win 16 games and only lose four outings, everyone really knows your name. When you go 8-0 in your last 11 starts, there isn’t a person in baseball who doesn’t know your name. Given all of that, I return to the question I just posed – how excited should you be about adding Nova to your roster for the upcoming season?

First off, and I say this all the time, broken record style, there is no way to predict wins and loses. Nova could pitch better than he did in 2011 and his record could end up being 10-13. You just never know. Second, Nova will be overvalued in 2012 because of his win total and the fact that he pitches for the Yankees, so don’t buy into that hype because if you do, you’ll likely end up being pretty disappointed. Why? Here are some reasons.

(1) Nova had a decent ERA of 3.70. Still, that’s not much better than the big league average of 3.94 in the ERA category in 2011. Additionally, Nova’s xFIP was 4.16 suggesting that his ERA might have been a wee bit artificially low.

(2) Nova had a decent WHIP of 1.33. Still, that’s worse than the big league average of 1.32.

(3) Nova had only 98 Ks last season in 165.1 innings pitched which equates to a 5.33 K/9 mark. That mark is nearly two full batters below the 2011 big league average of 7.13 per nine. As a general rule I never target a pitcher with a K/9 mark under 6.00 (really 6.50 in most cases). That doesn’t mean I won’t draft a guy with a K/9 mark that is worse than that benchmark, but I will never target an arm that can’t get out of jams via the punchout.

(4) Nova walked an average of 3.10 batters per nine innings. That is merely 0.01 better than the big league average.

So to wrap that little review up Nova was barely average in ERA and BB/9, while he was worse than big league average in WHIP and K/9 in 2011. Given the importance of strikeouts in standard 5×5 leagues, the deficiency in that category limits Nova’s value substantially. Add in the fact that wins are so variable, and that is another strike against Nova.

On the plus side, I have to give Nova credit for his impressive 1.83 GB/FB ratio, the result of an impressive sinker that resulted in nearly 53 percent of batted balls being pounded into the earth. Don’t get me wrong, pitchers can have a ton of extended success with a skill set like this, but that doesn’t mean they should be guys you target in the fantasy game. Tell me, which pitcher would you rather have rostered in 2011?

Ivan Nova: 1.83 GB/FB, 5.55 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP in 165.1 IP
Pitcher B: 1.77 GB/FB, 5.38 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 IP

Are there a lot of you out there who are going to rush to draft Pitcher B, Paul Maholm, in 2012?

Keep expectations in check with Nova, and that means realizing Nova is a 4/5 starter in mixed leagues and nothing more.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jason Heyward

There are few players in the game with more raw talent then Jason Heyward. At the same time, there are few players in the game with more questions surrounding them than Heyward after he had an abysmal 2011 season. Worse than the numbers he posted is the fact that he is perilously close to having the tag of “soft” stuck to his name forever, and there isn’t anything less flattering that you can have had as a nickname.

As a rookie, Heyward lashed line drives around the field as if multiple All-Star games were a foregone conclusion. Heyward hit .277 with 18 homers, 72 RBI, 83 runs scored and 11 steals over the course of 142 games in an excellent rookie season. Heyward also displayed great plate discipline with a .393  OBP. When you can do all of that as a 21 year old, the world is your oyster. Or so we thought. Heyward saw a regression in almost every imaginable way in his season season.

He lost four homers from his rookie season.
He had 30 fewer RBI.
He scored 33 fewer runs.
He stole two fewer bases.
His batting average fell .050 points.
His OBP dropped .074 points.
His SLG fell from .456 down to .389. Yes, his SLG in Year II was lower than his OBP in Year I.

Was his effort as bad as it seemed? In some respects there is no doubt – Heyward was an unmitigated disaster. In other respects, Heyward wasn’t as awful as it appeared.

Heyward’s K-rate was unchanged from his rookie season as it moved a tenth falling from 20.5 percent down to 20.4 percent. His walk rate was still solid at 11.2 percent, though that was 3.4 percent below his rookie rate. The result was a 0.55 BB/K mark that was still better than the league average. So why did he hit .227? He simply didn’t hit any line drives. Heyward produced a 13.1 percent line drive rate, nearly five points below his rookie mark of 17.8 percent. There is no way puts the barrel on the ball as infrequently in 2012. Since he didn’t hit anything on a line, it’s no surprise that his BABIP fell from .335 to .260. Add those two years up and his BABIP is still right on the big league average of .302.

Despite the loss of liners, Heyward actually did a better job at the plate in two respects. (1) His GB-rate dropped by over a point. (2) His fly ball rate went up by six percent. It may not have translated to anything in 2011, but a few more fly balls will be needed for Heyward to be a 25 homer threat (his HR/F rate was still 13.9 percent in 2011, not an awful number). Bottom line though is that he has to start lifting the ball as his 54 percent ground ball rate is something that Juan Pierre should have, not a guy who stands 6’5” and weighs 240 pounds. Oddly, for those of you into advanced metrics, Heyward’s Isolated Power mark was .179 in 2010, and despite all his struggles in 2011, it only fell to .162 (Isolated Power records a players raw power by taking SLG-AVG).

So what do you do with Heyward in 2012? To me, he’s likely to be one of the better bargains in the game (he was drafted in the sixth round in a recent mock draft of experts though, so it all depends on who you are drafting with in terms of his “bargainess”). Heyward is still only 22 years old. He’s still one of the most impressive physical specimens in the game. He’s only one season removed from a pretty damn impressive rookie effort. The ball still makes a different sound when it comes off his bat. Add that all up and I’m buying Heyward, especially if he slips in drafts. Let others worry about that “soft” label while you take advantage of the discount you will get on a guy who still oozes talent.

By Ray Flowers