Mocking It Up
November 11th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
One of my homies at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio is assistant producer Trevor Ray. TR was asked to participate in an NFBC style draft this week, and I thought it might be interesting to see where some key players were drafted in the mock draft that featured some rather prominent names in the industry, minus Trevor Ray of course (sorry TR, I had to).
Rules: NFBC Style. 15 teams, 30 rounds. 5X5 scoring
14 hitters: (C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI,UT,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters, relievers)
Here is a link to the results of the draft courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com.
Here are just some random thoughts from the draft.
Albert Pujols going first isn’t a shock, but it’s a bit surprising. More shocking is Jose Bautista going second overall. I wonder how many others will overlook the .257 second half batting average of Bautista that still surpassed his career mark of .254?
Ryan Braun went 5th and Matt Kemp 6th. I’m gonna be hard pressed not to have both in my top-3 when I release my rankings next year.
Evan Longoria and David Wright both had down 2011 efforts, yet both still went in the first round.
Ian Kinsler went 15th overall. I’m not saying that’s too late, his average is all over the place, but when you go 30/30 as a second baseman isn’t it odd to see that you’re taken eight picks after a shortstop who doesn’t have more power and one who doesn’t steal nearly as many bases (Troy Tulowitzki)?
Hanley Ramirez was the first pick of the second round. He has the talent to surpass that cost, we all know as much, but it’s still pretty early for a guy coming off an awful season that included shoulder surgery.
Roy Halladay was the first pitcher taken. No surprise there. Two other hurlers were taken in the second round in Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. No issue with any of those guys being an ace in 2012 but I still question whether taking a hurler in the second round is the best play.
Carlos Santana had a fantastic season for the Indians, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if his batting average went up at least .030 points in 2012 (he hit .239 last season). Still, 29th overall is way too early for me. The next catchers off the board weren’t until the 4th round when three went in six picks – Brian McCann, Victor Martinez and Buster Posey.
Carl Crawford went 31st overall. I’m comfortable with that spot and would be happy to take him there, even after his disastrous 2011.
Mike Stanton at #32 overall? The youngster could certainly hit 40 homers and drive in well above 100 runs, but his batting average just isn’t going to be much better than league average which causes me to question taking him this early. I’d much rather have taken Hunter Pence 53rd overall.
The third round saw four second sackers taken in seven picks: Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips. I’m a huge Utley fan, but at this point of his career, I think he was taken too early.
Jason Heyward went in the 6th round, one pick before Shin-Soo Choo. How does a guy who hits .300 with 20/20 in 2009-10 end up being drafted after Corey Hart? I don’t get that one.
David Freese wins the World Series MVP award and presto, he’s a fantasy star. He was taken with the first pick of the 7th round. To me, that’s pretty darn early when Mark Reynolds was still around in the 8th round.
Ubaldo Jimenez fell all the way to the 11th round.
Adam Wainwright should be 100 percent for opening day. Still, I find it odd that the Tommy John surgery returner was drafted before names like Ervin Santana, Bud Norris, Roy Oswalt and Justin Masterson.
You can have Aroldis Chapman in the 15th and give me Julio Teheran in the 18th.
Kendrys Morales is a total unknown this coming season. He was taken with the last pick of the 17th round, two selections before an even bigger unknown in Adam Dunn.
Per usual, there was a fair amount of pitching talent available in the later rounds: Tim Stauffer (21st round), Javier Vazquez (22nd), Gavin Floyd (24th), Jonathan Niese (25th) and Carlos Zambrano (29th).
The best 30th round draft pick was a tie between Jim Johnson and Tyler Clippard. Johnson could open the year as the Orioles closer giving him a ton of value there. As for Clippard, he may be the most dominating setup man in baseball right now. Just look at his numbers the past two seasons: 14-8, 2.46 ERA, 10.84 K/9, 3.22 K/BB, 5.87 H/9. Compare that effort to what Cole Hamels did in 2011: 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 8.08 K/9, 4.41 K/BB, 7.04 H/9. See what I’m saying?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Mock draft, NFBC, Tyler Clilppard
By jon on Nov 12, 2011
Hey Ray – sorry for the off-topic. I’m 7-2 and looking at playoffs. Just got offered VJax/Turner for my Ray Rice/Antonio Brown. Would you do this deal with playoff matchups in mind? (VJax @DET, @OAK, Rice vs. CLE, @CIN, Turner @NO, vs. TB). 8-team league and my other RBs are: Bush, DMC, Greene. My WRs: Nicks, Steve Smith (CAR), A. Brown, Crabtree.
thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Nov 12, 2011
Jon – I don’t worry about playoff matchups as much as others. I worry more about the player. If he’s an every week starter he’s an every week starter regardless of competition. Plus, all it takes is a broken leg to Rivers to destroy the value of VJax – it’s all about injuries.
VJax is a better option than Brown, but as you’ve seen, VJax is all over the board.
Rice is a better option than Turner, especially in a PPR ( you didn’t say), but Turner is still an RB1.
Give me VJax and Turner.
By jon on Nov 12, 2011
Thanks, Ray. It is a non-PPR so that’s not a factor, really. One thing I love about Rice is that he almost never gets vultured – he plays every down for that team. That said, we start 3 WR, 2 RBs and a flex – so if my starting skill players are VJax, Nicks, Steve Smith, Turner, DMC (or Bush) – I feel pretty good about that. My Ray Rice love is a little unhealthy perhaps…
By jon on Nov 12, 2011
So same guy just offered me Jennings/Turner for my Antonio Brown/Rice. My concern is that Jennings might sit during the Fantasy Playoffs with GB having clinched. What do you think? Which deal should I take if any?
By Ray Flowers on Nov 12, 2011
Jon – In a non ppr, the gap between Rice and Turner shrinks. Rice still better of course, but take away 70+ points on catches, and it’s much closer. I can’t think Jennings will sit. He might take a few plays off here and there, but it’s not like he is going to sit for a half or anything, at least not with my line of thinking.
I like this offer better than the last one. I’d take it, mainly because non PPR knocks down the value of Rice so much that he only has about 15 pt lead on Turner through the seasons mid-point.
By Tim Heaney on Dec 1, 2011
Hey bud, good seeing you in Arizona again.
I think you’re underselling Waino a bit. I grabbed him at 13.04 here. At that point, taking the upside with him as my No. 3 SP was much greater than the return that any of those other guys could yield, especially when paired with Shields and Garza.
Santana doesn’t K as many folks. Norris is nice but I targeted him for later rounds – no chance I’d take him there with Wainwright and others on the board. Masterson … just too many batted-ball peripherals and other things could regress. Oswalt – back, age, but figured I could grab him maybe the next round as a No. 4 if I desired.
Waino’s TJS recovery timetable is a positive one for him to hit the ground running, relatively. It bodes well for a natural progression of getting his normal skills back throughout the season. He doesn’t need his IP to be managed. Even with the potential for a slow start, the good chance of elite returns at that point in the draft was worth it.
Either way, good stuff on the recap! Definitely fun drafting this early.
By Ray Flowers on Dec 2, 2011
Tim Heaney – Good seeing you in Arizona as well my friend.
You make good points with Wainwright and TJ Surgery recovery. It’s such a science anymore, an almost all players come back in that 12-18 month time frame at full strength. I just worry about the potential lack of control, and the fact that he isn’t going to be allowed to thrown 220 innings this year. Still, your gambling doing a draft six months before opening day, so you have to project out a lot.
Thanks for the response, and hope you had a great Thanksgiving.