Player Profile: Jason Heyward
November 17th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
There are few players in the game with more raw talent then Jason Heyward. At the same time, there are few players in the game with more questions surrounding them than Heyward after he had an abysmal 2011 season. Worse than the numbers he posted is the fact that he is perilously close to having the tag of “soft” stuck to his name forever, and there isn’t anything less flattering that you can have had as a nickname.
As a rookie, Heyward lashed line drives around the field as if multiple All-Star games were a foregone conclusion. Heyward hit .277 with 18 homers, 72 RBI, 83 runs scored and 11 steals over the course of 142 games in an excellent rookie season. Heyward also displayed great plate discipline with a .393 OBP. When you can do all of that as a 21 year old, the world is your oyster. Or so we thought. Heyward saw a regression in almost every imaginable way in his season season.
He lost four homers from his rookie season.
He had 30 fewer RBI.
He scored 33 fewer runs.
He stole two fewer bases.
His batting average fell .050 points.
His OBP dropped .074 points.
His SLG fell from .456 down to .389. Yes, his SLG in Year II was lower than his OBP in Year I.
Was his effort as bad as it seemed? In some respects there is no doubt – Heyward was an unmitigated disaster. In other respects, Heyward wasn’t as awful as it appeared.
Heyward’s K-rate was unchanged from his rookie season as it moved a tenth falling from 20.5 percent down to 20.4 percent. His walk rate was still solid at 11.2 percent, though that was 3.4 percent below his rookie rate. The result was a 0.55 BB/K mark that was still better than the league average. So why did he hit .227? He simply didn’t hit any line drives. Heyward produced a 13.1 percent line drive rate, nearly five points below his rookie mark of 17.8 percent. There is no way puts the barrel on the ball as infrequently in 2012. Since he didn’t hit anything on a line, it’s no surprise that his BABIP fell from .335 to .260. Add those two years up and his BABIP is still right on the big league average of .302.
Despite the loss of liners, Heyward actually did a better job at the plate in two respects. (1) His GB-rate dropped by over a point. (2) His fly ball rate went up by six percent. It may not have translated to anything in 2011, but a few more fly balls will be needed for Heyward to be a 25 homer threat (his HR/F rate was still 13.9 percent in 2011, not an awful number). Bottom line though is that he has to start lifting the ball as his 54 percent ground ball rate is something that Juan Pierre should have, not a guy who stands 6’5” and weighs 240 pounds. Oddly, for those of you into advanced metrics, Heyward’s Isolated Power mark was .179 in 2010, and despite all his struggles in 2011, it only fell to .162 (Isolated Power records a players raw power by taking SLG-AVG).
So what do you do with Heyward in 2012? To me, he’s likely to be one of the better bargains in the game (he was drafted in the sixth round in a recent mock draft of experts though, so it all depends on who you are drafting with in terms of his “bargainess”). Heyward is still only 22 years old. He’s still one of the most impressive physical specimens in the game. He’s only one season removed from a pretty damn impressive rookie effort. The ball still makes a different sound when it comes off his bat. Add that all up and I’m buying Heyward, especially if he slips in drafts. Let others worry about that “soft” label while you take advantage of the discount you will get on a guy who still oozes talent.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Braves, Jason Heyward
By jeremy on Nov 23, 2011
I picked J-hey and Hanley Ramirez up off of waivers in the last week of my season this past year. I have to keep 3 players for next season and lose the draft pick for the round that I drafted them in. I will keep Clayton Kershaw and lose a 5th round pick on him, since I got him in the 5th round last year. What’s your opinion on keeping Heyward and HanRam while only losing my last round picks on them (22nd round and 23rd round)? OR would you keep Prince Fielder and use a 3rd rounder on him?
By Ray Flowers on Nov 23, 2011
Jeremy – I’m all about the value when it comes to these things. Hanley in the 22nd round is like finding a golden ingot buried under the tree in the backyard. You HAVE to keep him.
Fielder 3rd or Heyward 22nd is a bit tougher. Both should outperform that level of cost in 2012.
Fielder will be the higher performer, though return on investment will be a huge win for Heyward. I’d be inclined to keep Heyward, but it depends on where you will pick in first round and who will be there. I wouldn’t fault you at all for keeping Fielder instead, the guy is an absolute beast and would be a foundational piece for your team. You’d have to feel pretty good about HanRam/Fielder/Kershaw.
By Jeremy on Nov 28, 2011
Thanks for the advice Ray. For the record, I will be picking last in the first round since I won the league last year (with a lot of help from you, needless to say). Hope you had a great Thanksgiving!
By Ray Flowers on Nov 28, 2011
Jeremy- You got it my friend. My Turkey Day went well. Looking forward to the continuing holiday celebrations in December.
By wesley on Nov 29, 2011
What’s up ray, need help to get in playoffs. I have rivers and palmer,and fitz, flacco and young are available? Which 1 would u go with for week13 thanks again
By Ray Flowers on Nov 29, 2011
Wesley – I don’t like to make calls until Weds. I need time to sift through reports, injuries, matchups etc. Check back with me tomm. I like Palmer and Rivers as the two best options here, so keep them.
By Alan on Dec 1, 2011
Ray,
You helped me out a lot last week. You told me to go with the Rams as my defense and they ended up getting me 14 points in my 12 team ESPN league. I’m struggling with who to play at D/ST this week. Here are my ww options:
Rams, Jaguars, Cardinals, Browns, Giants, Dolphins, Saints, Chargers, Buccaneers, Panthers.
Trade deadline is up and this is what I’m left with going into the playoffs. I am 10-2 and leading in points. Just need a D/ST plan. Any suggestions for this week and/or rest of the way?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Dec 1, 2011
Alan – Glad we made the right call last week. Hopefully we’ll have the same success this week. I’d go Chargers. The Jags offense is a total mess.
TEN is a great add for their matchups in Weeks 15/16
By Josh on Apr 12, 2012
Ray,
I’m in a 10 team h2h keeper league and my team is struggling with OF. Morse and Bj Upton both hurt and Choo not producing. Right now I have Zobrist, Choo, and a platoon of Boesche and Duda as my OFers.
I was wondering if I should trade Hanley for Heyward and Youk. I do have Tulo and Lawrie at SS and 3B. Hanley cannot be kept and Heyward can in the 7th round next year.
I feel I do need to do something – or am I over reacting?
Thanks for your help. And love the Ray, Kay, and Kyle show on SiriusXM!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
Josh – I don’t like 10 team leagues. Those that play only three outfielders I hate. WAY too shallow to really worry about it. It also seems like you dont play middle or corner infielders? That’s laughable. Your lg just doesn’t start anyone… whats the point? Just go to the waiver wire an pick up a guy who will hit 20 homers with 80 RBI, they have to be there unless you have rosters with 30 players on them.
http://baseballguys.com/2012/03/27/how-did-i-do/
In general, if you have a problem in a lg this small, just move on to the next guy on waivers. At the same time… You don’t need to panic after a week. Saying Choo isn’t producing — it’s been a week. Stay patient. Upton should be back in about 10 days. Morse likely out six weeks, so that’s a concern.
By Phil on Mar 11, 2013
Ray,
I’m pretty big on Jason Heyward this year and going forward but this guy in my leauge (12 team H2H) wants a package of him, Profar, and Myers and I’d be getting McCutchen and Victorino (would try to Taveras or Alex Gordon). it is a keeper league where we can keep 13 and only 1 at each position (3 OF). This is what I have now.
2B – Pedroia
SS – Segura
OF – Braun, Markakis, Aoki, Swisher
What do you think?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2013
Phil – Heyward had some shoulder soreness today, same shoulder he’s been dealing with, but he should be OK.
Some think that McC and Heyward are very close. Let’s say they are close even if not equal.Is Profar/Myers then worth Victorino? Heck no in a keeper lg. In fact, I wouldn’t do it no matter which OF option you get in the deal.
I’d pass.