Player Profile: Mike Morse

The Nationals’ Mike Morse entered last season never having appeared in 100 games in a big league season. There were questions about what position he would play and whether or not his bat would play on an everyday basis. Consider those questions answered after Morse hit .303 with 31 homers, 95 RBI and an OPS of .910 over 146 games played. In addition, Morse provided nice value given that he played 85 games at first base and 55 in left. Can he repeat his 2011 effort in 2012? That’s the question of the day.

Morse shows remarkable consistency last season after a slow start (he hit .224 in April with one home run). Morse hit .306 before the All-Star game, .299 thereafter. He batted .297 against lefties, .304 against righties. He hit .302 at home, .303 on the road. About the only time that he didn’t hit was during the day when he batted just .248 compared to .325 at night. Given that his line drive rate for the year was 19.5 percent, it doesn’t seem like his average was over the top good, though his BABIP of .344 was a bit high. Still, he’s posted a .346 BABIP in his big league career, so his mark from last season certainly cannot be discounted.

Morse socked those 31 bombs in just 522 at-bats, an impressive ratio. He only hit 36.5 percent of his balls into the sky, not exactly the type of big number you expect to see with a power hitter. However, he was able to still reach the 30 homer plateau because of his 21.2 percent HR/F rate. That’s certainly a big number, but he did post a 19.5 percent HR/F mark in 2010. It’s probable that he’ll give back some of that rate in 2012, but that doesn’t mean a massive regression is going to occur.

My biggest concern with Morse is probably his horrendous plate discipline. His 21.5 percent career strikeout rate isn’t awful for a guy who can put the ball in the seats, bit his 6.7 percent walk rate is underwhelming. As a result, his career BB/K ratio is 0.29, a mark he barely undershot last year at 0.31. Given that the big league average is about 0.50, it’s pretty clear that Morse isn’t the most discerning of hitters at the dish. That isn’t much of a concern when he’s locked in, but when the hits stop falling it would be nice to see that he had the patience to wait for his pitch. It doesn’t look like he has that skill.

Morse will be a strong addition to any club in 2012, especially because he will qualify at first base an in the outfield. Expecting him to fully replicated his .303 average and 31 homers is likely asking a bit much, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be looking for him to lose his starting job and regress to being a bench option in mixed leagues either. Draft Morse expecting him to pretty much replicated the production he posted in 2011 and you should be alright, just don’t expect continued growth.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dan Uggla

Who is the greatest hitting second baseman of all-time? Could it possibly be the Atlanta Braves second sacker, Dan Uggla? OK, it’s stupid to say that Uggla is the best hitting second baseman ever, I’d give that title to Rogers Hornsby in a landslide, but that doesn’t mean that Uggla isn’t in the conversation for being tabbed the greatest power hitting second baseman ever. Think I’m nuts? Read on.

Dan Uggla hit an anemic .233 in his first year in Atlanta, his worst effort of a less than impressive batting average run in his career (he owns a .258 mark and that mark doesn’t figure to improve much given that he has struck out at least 149 times in each of the past five seasons). However, Uggla hit only .185 in a horrid first half so hitting .233 wasn’t that bad given the context (he batted .296 over his last 69 games). He’s never going to be a big help in the batting average category, it’s just not his game. Uggla also isn’t going to ever steal a bag. That’s not exactly true, he has stolen seven bases the last three years (whoopee), but you get the point. So two of the five fantasy categories Uggla is a zero, but in the other three he is an otherworldly hero.

Homers

Uggla hit a career best 36 homers in 2011.

Uggla has hit at least 30 homers each of the past five years.
(A) Only five men at any position have hit 30 homers the last five years.
(B) No other second baseman has ever had more than 2-straight 30-HR seasons. Ever.
(C) In fact, no other second baseman has more than three 30-homer seasons in their career.

Face it, Uggla has had the most dominant 5-year power run in second base history. Add in his 27 homers as a rookie and I can also say, without a single doubt, that he has had the greatest 6-year power run at the position in the history of baseball.

Runs Batted In

Uggla had 82 RBI in 2011, the worst mark of his career. That means he’s posted at least 82 RBI in 6-straight seasons – ever year he has been in the big leagues. Those six seasons of 82 RBI are the 4th most in history for a second baseman (Hornsby 10).

Runs Scored

Uggla scored 88 runs in 2011, and that was the sixth time that he has recorded at least 84 runs. That ties him for the 5th longest streak at the history of the position (Hornsby 10).

Add all of that together and Uggla is the only second baseman in baseball history to hit 27 homers with 82 RBI and 84 runs scored in 6-straight seasons. Moreover, that six year run matches the longest streaks of such vaunted players as Joe DiMaggio, Mike Schmidt, Frank Thomas and Todd Helton. Not bad eh?

Uggla has his warts, and they are on full display for everyone to see. At the same time his power bat is simply elite. Uggla is an excellent addition to any fantasy club at second base, just make sure that you craft your roster to give you average and speed from other positions.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Michael Cuddyer

Michael Cuddyer is a solid major league player, both on the offensive side of things as well as with the glove. What will the team that signs him to a contract be getting, and what should you expect from him if you roster him in 2012 in the fantasy game?

One of the biggest strengths of Cuddyer is his ability to play, and thereby qualify, at multiple positions on the diamond. In 2012, given a 20 games played minimum in 2011, Cuddyer will qualify at first base (46 games) and the oufield (77 games). Unfortuantely, those are the two worst positions to qualify for considering that’s where so many offensive weapons patrol the landscape. If only he had appeared in a few more games at second base (17). He’ll still qualify at two spots in ’12, but with second and third base out of the mix in most leagues, Cuddyer’s value is diminshed somewhat heading into next season.

In terms of his offensive production, I feel like people often overestimate his impact.

Cuddyer has no real speed. Sure he stole 11 bases in 2011, but it was a career-high. Given that he had never before stolen more than seven bases, it’s a fair bet that we’ll see some regression in 2012, particularly since it’s not often that we see 33 year olds set a career best in the steals category.

Cuddyer is also barely better than your league average type in the batting average category. We are talking about a guy coming off a career best effort of .284, the same mark he also posted in 2006, and .012 points clear of his career batting average of .272. Could he repeat that mark in 2012? Certianly he could. But it bares repeating that he has never hit .285 in a season. He’s also coming off a season with a 0.51 BB/K mark, a direct match for his career rate. He also posted a slightly low 17.8 percent line drive rate. Not only is that line drive rate below the big league average of 19-20 percent, it’s also below Cuddyer’s personal mark of 18.5 percent and it is the third straight season he has failed to post a mark of even 18 percent. Add in a BABIP of .312, a 4-year high and slightly above his career .306 mark, and you can hopefully begin to understand why my picture of Cuddyer doesn’t include an impressive batting average in 2012.

Cuddyer also doesn’t have the power that some might think. There is no dispiuting that that Target Field hasn’t helped as the Park Indices mark for homers at Target Field is 10th in the American League the last two years. Still, Cuddyer has only hit more than 25 homers once in his career, 32 in 2009, and per 550 at-bats in his career we’re talking about a man with a 19 homer rate. It should also be pointed out that three times in the last five years his HR/F ratio has been in the single digits, and that his 12.3 percent career mark is barely better than average.

Adding everything up, Cuddyer is what he is, and that is a very solid, across the board contributor that can help any team. However, just because he has value doesn’t mean he should be someone you should target at the draft table in fantasy baseball. Cuddyer isn’t going to provide much of a boost to your team’s batting average, and he also isn’t likely to steal more than a handful of bases. As I’ve also touched on, his power is solid but far from the elite levels that one hopes for when you’re looking to add a player to handle first base or outfield duties. Obviously if he ends up in a better offensive ball yard surrounded by talented players that will not hurt his fantasy value, but the only way he would have truly been someone to target on draft day 2012 is if he had played three more lousy games at second base.

NOTE: Cuddyer signed a 3-year deal for more than $31 million to join the Rockies. While this might be a best possible scenario for Cuddyer, it doesn’t change the main thrust of this report, especially now that the humidor has sapped some of the offensive potential of hitters. Cuddyer is likely to hit a handful more home runs than initially expected, and his average could push .290 given his new home, but don’t let the ball yard lead you to think that Cuddyer is something that he isn’t.

By Ray Flowers

Dumpster Diving: Five Underrated Players in 2012

Matt Bonini shares some of his thoughts with the readers.

Anyone can make selections in rounds 1-15 in a fantasy baseball draft (pull up a top-200 player list and you can field a decent team, barring major injury or “Carl Crawford-like” campaigns). But when all the Pujols’, Jeter’s, Upton’s, and Hamels’ fly off the board, many drafters go into an indifferent, almost passive mindset. Maybe it’s the sense of unfamiliarity with the remaining names on the board, or the lack eye-popping numbers that players left in the draft tend to have. Whatever the reason may be, rounds 15 and on (or what I like to call “Garbage Time”) can be what differentiates a championship team from the Chicago Cubs….I mean… uh… an underachieving team.

Alex Cobb
Cobb comes into 2012 an unheralded prospect partly because of a bizarre season-ending rib injury, and partly because of the highly proficient Rays farm system. A prime example would be the emergence of super-prospect Matt Moore overshadowing what Cobb did during the 2011 regular season. Cobb’s 2011 cameo appearance drew many parallels to what Jeremy Hellickson and David Price did in their first respective tours for the Rays. Cobb posted a 3.42 ERA in nine starts in 2011. If you remove his last start against Oakland in which he was hampered by that rib injury (five earned runs in 4.1 innings), he would have finished with just a 2.79 ERA. Only giving up three homers through 52.2 innings of work isn’t too shabby either, which aligns pretty accurately with his HR/9 in the minors (0.7).

Bud Norris
Go grab yourself a Bud – Bud Norris. A Houston product that goes under the radar because of his team, Norris has shown signs of greatness over his short career. With a K/9 rate of 8.85 over his past two seasons, Norris finds himself among an elite group of starters in the punch-out department. The Houston offense and a less than great WHIP (1.33) will likely keep fantasy managers at bay until much later in the draft, putting a smart manager in a position grab some late round value. Normally caution is warranted with a Minute Maid pitcher but, with the number of strikeouts he gets, taking a shot seems warranted.

Jason Kipnis
Kipnis made quite a bit of noise when he smashed six home runs in ten games a week after he was called up from Triple-A Columbus (three of them coming against the Red Sox). He hit a bit of a snag after a hamstring injury sidelined him for nearly the whole month of August. Although it appeared as if he was never able to fully revive his power numbers (one home run in 18 games upon his return from injury), he was still able to consistently reach base (four multi-hit games and a near .900 OPS), establishing himself as a staple atop the Indians lineup. Kipnis also has the ability to swipe a handful of bags, making him a solid source of runs and stolen bases as well. With everyone getting on the Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley bandwagons, waiting to take Kipnis at a much later part of the draft could result in better value for your club.

J.D. Martinez
If there’s one person in Houston who thoroughly enjoyed the dive-bomb season Houston had it would be Martinez. After the Astros jumped ship by unloading Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, Martinez catapulted to the bigs after posting a .342/.407/.551 line with 43 homers over 298 minor league games. If there is one thing that we can say for sure about Martinez, it’s that he has performed at every level, even though he doesn’t have a single at-bat in Triple-A. In just 208 at-bats at the major league level, he clubbed six homers and drove in an impressive 35 runs. Don’t be too bashful on the young Astros talent simply because he’ll be in the middle of the depressing Astros’ order. Look for Martinez to deliver some much needed pop to one of the worst lineups in baseball next season, giving Houston fans a small ray of hope (or is it shooting star?) for the future.

Zach Cozart
The emergence of Cozart means Cincinnati fans can kiss the Paul Janish era goodbye. Run production should be rampant in Cincinnati with the likes of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips batting behind him (Cozart hit second in 10 of the 11 games he played with the Reds). In his 2010 Triple-A campaign, Cozart belted 17 home runs to go along with 67 RBI and 30 steals. While his .255 BA wasn’t anything to write home about, his combination of speed and power cannot be ignored. Consider his season ending elbow injury a fantasy blessing, as he will slide under the radar in most drafts because of his lack of exposure last year. At the ripe age of 26 and virtually no roadblocks in his way, expect Cozart to make an impact during the 2012 season.

By Matt Bonini

Mocking It Up

One of my homies at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio is assistant producer Trevor Ray. TR was asked to participate in an NFBC style draft this week, and I thought it might be interesting to see where some key players were drafted in the mock draft that featured some rather prominent names in the industry,  minus Trevor Ray of course (sorry TR, I had to).

Rules: NFBC Style. 15 teams, 30 rounds. 5X5 scoring

14 hitters: (C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI,UT,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters, relievers)

Here is a link to the results of the draft courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com.

Here are just some random thoughts from the draft.

Albert Pujols going first isn’t a shock, but it’s a bit surprising. More shocking is Jose Bautista going second overall. I wonder how many others will overlook the .257 second half batting average of Bautista that still surpassed his career mark of .254?

Ryan Braun went 5th and Matt Kemp 6th. I’m gonna be hard pressed not to have both in my top-3 when I release my rankings next year.

Evan Longoria and David Wright both had down 2011 efforts, yet both still went in the first round.

Ian Kinsler went 15th overall. I’m not saying that’s too late, his average is all over the place, but when you go 30/30 as a second baseman isn’t it odd to see that you’re taken eight picks after a shortstop who doesn’t have more power and one who doesn’t steal nearly as many bases (Troy Tulowitzki)?

Hanley Ramirez was the first pick of the second round. He has the talent to surpass that cost, we all know as much, but it’s still pretty early for a guy coming off an awful season that included shoulder surgery.

Roy Halladay was the first pitcher taken. No surprise there. Two other hurlers were taken in the second round in Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. No issue with any of those guys being an ace in 2012 but I still question whether taking a hurler in the second round is the best play.

Carlos Santana had a fantastic season for the Indians, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if his batting average went up at least .030 points in 2012 (he hit .239 last season). Still, 29th overall is way too early for me. The next catchers off the board weren’t until the 4th round when three went in six picks – Brian McCann, Victor Martinez and Buster Posey.

Carl Crawford went 31st overall. I’m comfortable with that spot and would be happy to take him there, even after his disastrous 2011.

Mike Stanton at #32 overall? The youngster could certainly hit 40 homers and drive in well above 100 runs, but his batting average just isn’t going to be much better than league average which causes me to question taking him this early. I’d much rather have taken Hunter Pence 53rd overall.

The third round saw four second sackers taken in seven picks: Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips. I’m a huge Utley fan, but at this point of his career, I think he was taken too early.

Jason Heyward went in the 6th round, one pick before Shin-Soo Choo. How does a guy who hits .300 with 20/20 in 2009-10 end up being drafted after Corey Hart? I don’t get that one.

David Freese wins the World Series MVP award and presto, he’s a fantasy star. He was taken with the first pick of the 7th round. To me, that’s pretty darn early when Mark Reynolds was still around in the 8th round.

Ubaldo Jimenez fell all the way to the 11th round.

Adam Wainwright should be 100 percent for opening day. Still, I find it odd that the Tommy John surgery returner was drafted before names like Ervin Santana, Bud Norris, Roy Oswalt and Justin Masterson.

You can have Aroldis Chapman in the 15th and give me Julio Teheran in the 18th.

Kendrys Morales is a total unknown this coming season. He was taken with the last pick of the 17th round, two selections before an even bigger unknown in Adam Dunn.

Per usual, there was a fair amount of pitching talent available in the later rounds: Tim Stauffer (21st round), Javier Vazquez (22nd), Gavin Floyd (24th), Jonathan Niese (25th) and Carlos Zambrano (29th).

The best 30th round draft pick was a tie between Jim Johnson and Tyler Clippard. Johnson could open the year as the Orioles closer giving him a ton of value there. As for Clippard, he may be the most dominating setup man in baseball right now. Just look at his numbers the past two seasons: 14-8, 2.46 ERA, 10.84 K/9, 3.22 K/BB, 5.87 H/9. Compare that effort to what Cole Hamels did in 2011: 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 8.08 K/9, 4.41 K/BB, 7.04 H/9. See what I’m saying?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard, the Phillies’ slugger, may or may not be at 100 percent in April as he is attempting to come back from a torn Achilles tendon that he suffered making the Phillies last out of the 2011 season (the optimistic out there  believe he will be ready to play in April though it may take a bit longer). However, as much as the Achilles issue bothers me, I’m more concerned with a slowly deteriorating skill set with the 31 year old first baseman whose best days are already behind him.

THE CONCERNS

(1) As I mentioned, despite only six full seasons at the big league level, Howard is already 31 years old and he turns 32 on November 19th. Given his body type, and this has been brought up a lot in baseball circles, there is a concern that he could lose his skills a bit sooner than others who are more physically fit. These two issues make the 5-year, $125 million extension the Phils signed him to look exceedingly risky.

(2) Howard strikes out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. The number hasn’t gone up in recent years, it’s remained steady, but all those strikeouts certainly mean that his .313 batting average from 2006 will end up being a career best. It should also be pointed out that he has failed to hit .255 in two of the past four years.

(3) His OBP has gone down each of the past two seasons: .360, .353 and .346.

(4) His SLG has gone down each of the past two seasons: .571, .505 and .488.

(5) His .488 SLG percentage and .835 OPS in 2011 were career worsts.

(6) He hasn’t hit 35 homers the past two years after hitting at least 45 in 4-straight seasons.

(7) The last two years he’s failed to reach 120 RBI, this after reaching at least 135 in 4-straight seasons.

(8) The last two years he failed to score 90 runs, the only two times in six full seaosns he has failed to do that.

Now you might say points #7 and #8, the counting stats, are somewhat dependent on others in the Phillies’ lineup so you aren’t ready to “blame” Howard for slippage there. I agree, to a point. Still, he’s not driving in or scoring runs like he did over the first four years of his career, and last time I checked the Phils still have a pretty solid batting order don’t they? The real concern with Howard in the fantasy game is threefold. (A) He’s gonna be lucky to hit .280. (B) He never steals bases. (C) His power is on the decline.

The average major league hitter usually produces something like the following line: 19 percent line drives, 43 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. In Howard’s case his career ratios are 23 percent line drives, 39 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. That’s right. Despite all the homers, the fact of the matter is that Howard simply doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. In truth, his fly ball ratio is the same as the big league average. Given that fact, Howard must convert a substantial portion of his fly balls into home runs toi keep his homer total elevated. If his HR/F ratio were to slip at all, the results would be catastrophic to his homer total since he just doesn’t hit enough fly balls to make up for a lack of conversion. Therefore, when I notice that his HR/F ratio has gone down 3-straight seasons I’m very nervous. Not only has it gone down, but it’s gone way down. Here are his HR/F ratios from his six full seasons.

39.5, 31.5, 31.8, 25.4, 21.1, 21.7

That’s a massive fall off. It’s also the reason why (A) he’s bee in in the low 30′s in homers the past two years and why (B) I think his ceiling in the homer category is 35 homers, not 45 like it was from 2006-09.

So we’ve got an aging, injured first baseman who never steals bases, barely betters the league batting average, and one who’s power seems to be slipping. I’m not predicting a collapse for Howard in 2012, but even if that Achilles of his is healthy, I wouldn’t draft him expecting anything other than the levels that we’ve seen the past two years – his salad days just aren’t coming back.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Wandy Rodriguez

Wandy Rodriguez is one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in the National League, even if that’s sometimes difficult to discern given that he plays for a team that is fairly inept in Houston. As a result of a lack of offensive support, Wandy has gone 22-23 the past two season causing people to often overlook his work on the hill. Due $10 in 2012, $13 million in 2013 and $13 million in 2014 (there is a $2.5 million buyout for ’14), the Astros may look to move Wandy this offseason (the Rockies are known to be very interested). What type of pitcher will Wandy be for whichever team he ends up pitching for in 2012? A very solid one if you ask me.

Wandy isn’t exactly the pitcher you think of when you talk about durability, but it should be noted that he has thrown 190 or more innings each of the past three years. There are only six other lefties in baseball in that club and that supports the contention that Rodriguez is one of the better lefties in the game if we can show that his performance has been impressive.

Rodriguez isn’t a massive strikeout arm in the mold of other Astros’ arms like J.R. Richard, Nolan Ryan and Mike Scott, but Wandy does own a 7.68 K/9 mark in his career, and in three of the past four season that K/9 mark of his has been better than 8.20. Moreover, when you combine the Ks and the innings you end up with a hurler who has struck out at least 165 batters in each of the past three years. There are only five other lefties in that club of 165 K men the last three years.

Unfortauntely, Wandy has seen his walk total increase the last couple of years as he walked a then career worst 68 in 2010 followed up by issuing 69 last year. After seeing his BB/9 dip below 2.90 in 2008-09, it’s disappointing to see that it has crept back up anove 3.10 the last two seasons. Still, he’s right about the league average here so it’s not awful. The result is a K/BB mark of at least 2.41 in each of the past five years, thought again, the mark has dipped to solid the last two years after being strong in 2008-09.

In terms of batted balls, Wandy has done a better job the past couple of years at generating grounders. In fact, he’s a pretty decent ground ball artist who has posted a GB-rate of 44.9 percent or better the past three years. The result has been a solid GB/FB ratio of 1.21 or better in each of those years culminating in a 1.49 mark in 2010. He’s also posted exactly the same number in the line drive category the past two years at 20.0 percent, right about identical to the big league average. He’s also about big league average when it comes to his HR/F ratio. However, there’s room for improvement here as his 13.0 percent mark last season was a six year high, and coming on the heels of 3-straight seasons below 10 percent some regression in 2012 would seem like a fair bet to place.

So in Rordiguez we have a fairly durable arm that posts strong strikeout totals and keeps the walks in check. He’s also better than average at inducing grounders which also help him to remain fairly consistent – not necessarily from start to start, but from season to season. Check out his numbers the past four years.

ERA: 3.54, 3.02, 3.60, 3.49
WHIP: 1.31, 1.24, 1.29, 1.31

Wandy isn’t likely to challenge for the Cy Young Award, and he’s not exactly a fantasy ace, but he is a solid, dependable arm that should be prized in mixed leagues in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Giants, Royals Deal

The Giants added a bat, something everyone knows that they need, while dealing away a problem child who might have had the best arm on the team. The Giants also managed to do something that I always tell people not to do in the fantasy game. What boner did they pull? The sold low and bought high. Maybe they should spend some more time reading my stuff.

The Deal:
Giants Receive: Melky Cabrera
Royal Receive: Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo

Cabrera had the best season of a rather undistinguished career in 2011 as he hit .305 with 18 homers, 20 steals, 87 RBI and 102 runs scored. He also racked up 201 hits to impress everyone. However, this is what I see. Cabrera had success because of the copious plate appearance total. I mean, he had 706 of them (the 11th most in baseball). As a result, he was able to post career bests in RBI, runs, hits, doubles (44), homers etc. In terms of his ratios, his BB-rate of 5.0 percent was a career worst. His K-rate of 13.3 percent was a career worst. His .339 OBP was only .008 better than his career rate. His 1.44 GB/FB ratio was just off his career mark of 1.52. His line drive rate of 20.3 percent was only slightly above his 19.4 percent career mark. He also posted a career-high of .332 in the BABIP category, .033 points better than his career average and the first time he had a mark in the .300′s since 2006. It was a strong year in terms of his fantasy value, but in terms of his real world performance his success was largely a factor of those 706 PAs and not because of growth in his game.

Sanchez was a strong performer in 2010 when he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 205 Ks in 193.1 innings. Last season he regressed. Not only was he limited to just 101.1 innings with issues with his elbow, he also saw his K/9 mark go down half a batter (it was still an impressive 9.06), while his terrible BB/9 rate (4.47 in 2010) shot up well past pathetic into the realm of atrocious (5.86). So instead of trading him coming off his best season, the Giants held on and ended up having top deal him at his lowest point in four years. Great move guys. Sanchez still owns dominating stuff, but until he does a better job of throwing strikes it just won’t matter. If he were able to get his walk rate under control, and to this point the best BB/9 mark he’s ever had is 4.27 in 2008 – a full batter above the big league average mind you – Sanchez would be one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s shown little consistency in his career and the results are a mediocre WHIP (1.39) and ERA (4.26). At this point he’s mostly potential and little substance.

Verdugo is a left-handed starter much in the same mold as Sanchez. He throws hard, his K/9 mark is in the double digits during his minor league career (11.1), but he’s also walking far too many batters leading to 4.5 BB/9 mark. When he’s locked in few can hit him, but far too often he ends up beating himself. He’s not a lock to contribute with the Royals this season either as he has thrown just 130.1 innings at the Double-A level.

If everything comes together for Sanchez the Giants will rue the day they made this deal. It will also end up looking bad if they (a) fail to sign Cabrera to a long term deal (he’s a free agent after the 2012 season), or (b) if Cabrera returns to being the hitter he was for his entire career prior to 2011. As stated, much of what Cabrera accomplished in 2011 was the result, NOT of improvements in his game, but because of all those extra plate appearances an a rather fortuitous BABIP mark. The data seem to favor a regression in the batting average (career .275), in the homer category (he’d never hit more than 17 homers in back-to-back seasons before hitting 18 in 2011), and in the steals department for Melky (he’d never stolen more than 13 bags in a season, and with 10 caught stealing last year in 30 attempts he really didn’t add anything to the offense). The Giants needed a bat and Cabrera fills that need, but let’s hope the Giants realize that they would be lucky to get a repeat effort out of Cabrera in 2012 so they still have a lot of work to do to bolster an offense that was the club’s undoing in 2011.

Final Notes

The Giants’ outfield might be Cabrera in center, Nate Schierholtz in right and ??? They could be interested in bringing back Carlos Beltran and/or Andres Torres/Cody Ross, but for now the look of the outfield is one of a second division club. If it’s Aubrey Huff in left and Brandon Belt at first base, would that make you feel any better? Me neither.

Lorenzo Cain will likely open the 2012 season as the Royals starting center fielder. After hitting .312 with 16 homers, 81 RBI, 84 runs and 16 steals at Triple-A in 2011, he’s someone to remember in the later rounds of mixed league drafts – he’s got the skills to offer a substantial season in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

AFL – 2011 Review

I had a great time at the Arizona Fall League this year. So much to tell, from the adventures, to some of my thoughts on the players. Where to begin…?

It was amazing to be able to broadcast from the Rising Stars Game for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. We had a booth in the press box pretty much directly behind home plate. The picture to the left was taken from our view in the box. Felt like a VIP up there.

Beautiful ballpark there at Surprise, Arizona. It has like 125 acres of land, tons of ball fields on the side, and it’s got a great atmosphere in the stands. Make sure you get dropped off on the right side of the stadium though or you’ll be looking at a 20 minute walk to get around the massive complex (I’m speaking from experience unfortunately).

I was able to get down on the field with my co-host Kyle Elfrink to take in batting practice. We also had the unique opportunity to interview a few of the future stars of the game in Wil Myers of the Royals, Jaff Decker of the Padres and Mike Trout of the Angels. You can clink on the links to listen to portions of all three interviews.

Garrett Cole, the top selection of the Pirates, got lit up for five runs in his first inning of work in the Rising Stars game. Still, the stuff was on full display. According to Jason Grey of ESPN, who we interviewed during the game, Cole’s stuff looked amazing including the nearly triple digit heat that was on full display. His problem on the night were two fastballs he left right over the hear of the plate.

Matt Dominguez of the Marlins’ was a bit banged up with a thumb issue. You would have never known it watching him stroke ball after ball over the fence in batting practice.

We didn’t get a chance to talk to Bryce Harper, I’ll break him down in a moment, but we were able to talk to Stu Cole of the Rockies. The manager of the East Division in the Rising Stars game told us how impressed he was with the talent of Harper and Trout who were both on the East squad. Thanks to Mr. Cole as well, a class act. It was also pretty neat to walking around with a wireless microphone interviewing people on the field as Kyle was in the booth. Now I know what it feels like to be Erin Andrews.

I was surprised by just how big some of these 20, 21, 22 year old kids were. It’s no longer ‘when he fills out he’ll be able to…” it’s “he’s already physically mature, now it’s just about how can he develop his skills.”

Speaking of skills, Bryce Harper is amazing. Watching him take batting practice was impressive. The 19 year old simply put the barrel on the ball with every cut. The short stride, the balance, the level swing with the perfect throw of the head of the bat, clearly he’s going to be a tremendous ball player. One three swing sequence in BP said it all. First pitch – line drive to left field. Second pitch – line drive to center field. Third pitch – line drive to right field. I told you, impressive.

Jeff Mans of FantasyAlarm.com – one of the funnier guys you will ever meet. It’s all about the frosted tips Jeff. Let me know when you get that text too, will ya?

Wil Myers, who we interviewed, has quite the stroke. He’s going to be a huge hitter in the majors. It’s obvious why the Royals aren’t interested in adding in the rumored deal with the Braves for Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens.

Thanks to Matt Deutsch and SirusXM for treating us well and giving us a chance to cover the Arizona Fall League. Also, thanks to Ron Shandler and Baseball HQ for their First Pitch Forums – a great way to get a jump on the competition.

Joe Panik of the Giants isn’t overly impressive physically, but the kid is a player. He’ll be a solid player for years, even if he never reaches stardom.

For those you who are wondering, yes, there are tremendously hot women all over the place in Phoenix. I so want to go back to college really badly.

Joey Terdoslavich of the Braves had the most impressive swing of the game. He took a 99 mph fastball from Cole and probably hit it 440 feet to dead centerfield. It was a total bomb.

So there it is. Now it’s time to get some sleep. You’d be amazed at how hard it is to be this cool.

By Ray Flowers

Heading to the AFL

For the second time in three years I’ll be heading to the Arizona Fall League to peep out some of the future stars in the game. If I’m not mistaken, the AFL is in their 20th season of giving you ball players one last chance to impress scouts and the front office of the teams they play for before shutting things down for the season. If you want to check out the league and see who all is playing in Arizona this year, here’s a link to the AFL’s homepage.

I’ll also be treated to a chance to watch the best of the best this season at the AFL Rising Stars Game (you can see full rosters by clicking on the link). There are five of the top-50 MLB Prospects in the game, with the lead dog being Bryce Harper who I will get to see for the first time (let’s hope he plays and doesn’t pull a Stephen Strasburg who was pulled from the outing he was supposed to make the last time I was down in Arizona). In addition to Harper I’ll also get a chance to eyeball Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Nick Franklin and Matt Dominguez (I’ve already seen Trout in person as I caught a game of his in Baltimore this summer).

While some of the prospects in the league will never live up to expectations, there’s a good chance that some of the players I see play this weekend will be future stars in the big leagues. Twenty-right of the players in the Rising Stars game in 2009 appeared in the big leagues in 2010, while the 2010 Rising Stars game produced 24 players who saw time in the big leagues in 2011.

Don’t forget to tune into SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio over the weekend either (Sirius210, XM87). On Friday from 3-5 PM Arizona time, Kyle Elfrink and your truly will be broadcasting the XFL Experts Draft which will be held at the First Pitch Forums in Arizona hosted by Baseball HQ. On Saturday Kyle and I will be broadcasting from the Surprise Stadium, the site of the Rising Stars Game (our broadcast will begin at 4 PM local time). We hope to get a chance to speak to a couple of scouts, maybe a GM or two as well, and possibly even conduct some on the field interviews with some of the young guns themselves. It should be quite a weekend.

I hope you all tune in to listen to the festivities, and don’t forget to have a beer on me while listening to the weekend’s broadcasts.

By Ray Flowers