Player Profile: Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera was about as good as it gets in 2011. Cabrera was so good in fact that it can be argued, persuasively, that he was the best American League fantasy shortstop in the just completed season. Is there any chance in hell he will be able to repeat his bust out campaign in 2012?

In 2011, Cabrera hit 25 homers. Only two other shortstops had more (Troy Tulowitzki and J.J. Hardy had 30).

In 2011 Cabrera posted a .460 SLG. Only one other shortstop who qualified for the batting title bettered that – Jose Reyes (.493).

In 2011 Cabrera had 92 RBI. Only Tulowitzki had more with 105.

In 2011 Cabrera scored 87 runs. Only three shortstops had more: Jose Reyes (101), Elvis Andrus (96) and Starlin Castro (91).

In 2011 Cabrera stole 17 bases. Thirteen shortstop eligible players stole more bags, but no other shortstop who stole that many bases also hit 20 homers.

I wasn’t kidding when I said he was the best fantasy shortstop in the American League. So what’s the problem with building your team around Cabrera in 2012? Here we go.

(1) Cabrera hit .273, eight points below his career mark of .281. This doesn’t look so bad until you realize the drastic swing his performance took last season. Cabrera hit .330 in May, and then it was all downhill from there. Here are his monthly totals thereafter: .297, .266, .239 and .234. That translates to a .293 mark before the All-Star game and then .244 after the break.

(2) Cabrera hit 18 home runs from 2007-2010. That isn’t a misprint. He hit 18 homers in 1,415 at-bats before he went Kirby Puckett on everyone (I should also point out that he hit just 27 homers in 1,655 at-bats during his minor league days). How in the world was he able to blast 25 homers in just 604 at-bats last year?

(A) Cabrera had posted a GB-rate of 48.0 and 51.7 percent in 2009 and 2010. In 2011 that number tanked down to 43.8 percent. Conversely, his fly ball rate, under 31.5 percent in 2009-10, went up to 38.7 percent in 2011. Hitters don’t normally completely flip flop their performance like that in one year.

(B) In addition to all the extra fly balls, Cabrera also managed to jack up his HR/F ratio, and when I say ‘jack up’ I’m not kidding. Here are the HR/F rates of Cabrera in his first four seasons: 6.3, 6.7, 4.7 and 3.0 percent. In 2011 that mark was 13.3 percent. Cabrera doubled his previous career best folks. Established hitters don’t normally sustain jumps like.

Could A and B repeat themselves in 2012? It’s certainly possible. But I’ll tell you the same thing I said about Joe Mauer in 2009 when he hit 28 homers and I predicted that he would regress (he fell to nine homers by the way with his follow up effort) – players just don’t double their HR/F ratios from one season to the next when they’ve already established a baseline.

(C) Because of all the extra fly balls, Cabrera’s GB/FB ratio did a total flip flop in 2011 as well. In 2009-10 his mark was 1.60 and 1.65. In 2011 that mark fell all the way to 1.13. Again, players simply don’t sustain drastic changes like that very often.

Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average. However, you can say that about an awful lot of middle infielders. The real key for Cabrera will be whether or not he will be able to sustain the massive power spike he flashed in 2011. It’s possible that he will remain at that level, there are no certainties in this life, but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Matt Cain

There are other pitchers who make more money, who have more fame, and who reach greater heights than Matt Cain (it’s pretty tough for Cain to get a footing in the national conscience when one of the five biggest stories in baseball on the hill happens to be his teammate, Tim Lincecum). At the same time, there my be no hurler in baseball who is more consistent than the Giants #2 starter who will be looking for one more big season as he heads into free agency after the 2012 season.

Cain has never won 15 games in a season, basically the bare minimum for one to be considered an ace. In fact, he’s only won in double-digit’s in four of the last six years which might lead you to think that he isn’t anything to write home about. However, if you’ve followed Cain closely over the years, you know the story – the Giants simply have an aversion to scoring runs when he is on the hill. Just take a look at his earned run averages over the past five years:

3.65, 3.76, 2.89, 3.14, 2.88

The last three years his ERA has been borderline elite, an in fact his 2.97 mark in that time frame is the sixth best mark in baseball for hurlers who have thrown at least 480-innings as he bested arms like Jered Weaver (3.03), Justin Verlander (3.06) and CC Sabathia (3.18). Unfortunately Cain has won 14, 13 and 12 games the past three years as the Giants anemic offense simply hasn’t supported him sufficiently leaving him on the outskirts looking in when talk roles around to the games greats. Still, consistency is his hallmark.

Cain owns a 1.20 career WHIP, and the last three seasons his WHIP has been 1.18, 1.08 and 1.08. Moreover, his base runner per nine mark of 10.25 is the 8th best mark in baseball the past three seasons and better than Felix Hernandez (10.51), Cole Hamels (10.55) and Tim Lincecum (10.79). He’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

Cain has struck out at least 163 batters each of the past six years. Only three others hurlers are in that group (CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren). In his last four years Cain has been over 170 Ks, and the last three years his totals have been 171, 177 and 179. Yet again, he’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

One aspect of Cain’s game that is elite is his ability to take the ball every five games. In his first full season he tossed “only” 190.2 innings, but in each of his last five seasons he has thrown at least 200-innings. In this day and age, the ability to throw 200-innings year after year is a rare trait (only six others have thrown 200-innings each of the past six years: Roy Halladay, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren and CC Sabathia).

I could go on and on with Cain, highlighting things like his remarkable 3-year run in BABIP (.263, .252 and .260), but I think the point is clear: Cain is a  borderline elite arm who will throw a lot of innings, pile up strong strikeout totals, and provide you with top of the heap ratios. He may not rack up wins with the elite, his total of 39 is tied for 12th in the game the past three years, but all of his other fantasy numbers will help you to win a championship. I must admit to some trepidation given that his GB/FB is just 0.84 for his career, and that his HR/F ratio is just 6.5 percent, but for now, pitching half his games in the pitcher’s ball yard in San Francisco will minimize those concerns. Cain shouldn’t be your #1 starter in mixed leagues, but if he is your #2 arm, you’ll be sitting in a nice spot.

By Ray Flowers

The History of the MVP and Cy Young Awards

Every year Major League Baseball rewards players for their excellence, and two awards top the list -the MVP and Cy Young awards (for this year’s voting see http://bbwaa.com). Everyone knows about the awards, and continually debates whether or not the appropriate players were chosen for the awards. However, I’d posit that the vast majority of people know little about the history of the awards. Today, I’ll help to rectify that oversite (the information is gathered from Total Baseball, 7th edition, pp.192-194 for the MVP portion of the paper, and pp.205-206 for the Cy Young segment).

MVP HISTORY

Originally the MVP award was presented by Hugh Chalmers, president of the Chalmers Motor Company, to the player with the highest batting average in major league baseball (this occurred in 1910). However, after the Ty Cobb/Nap Lajoie fiasco of 1910 in which the St Louis Browns allowed Lajoie to go 8-for-8 in a double header with seven of the hits coming on bunts because they detested Cobb so much, it was determined that in 1911 the MVP award, and the car that went with it, would go to the one player in each league who was the “…most important and useful player to his club.” This was the way the award was presented until 1914 when World War I began (the war obviously caused people to turn their attention towards other avenues). In addition to the battle across the Atlantic, Chalmers had signed only a five year deal with baseball to present the award and the accompanying car which ran out after the 1914 season, so the award basically just disappeared.

In 1922, the American League established a new set of rules and procedures and decided to reinstate the award after neither league awarded a trophy from 1915 to 1921 (the National League eventually followed suit, though it waited until 1924 to reinstate its award). However, a few quirks in the rules of the time deserve mention.

First, the original rules prohibited teammates from both receiving votes in the same season. Second, players who also managed ball clubs were disqualified from being chosen. Third, in the most blatantly stupid idea of the history of the award, once a player won the award he was ruled ineligible forever meaning that players like Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig were only eligible to win the award once (in Ruth’s historic 1927 season when he hit his record 60 HR, as well as batting .356, with 160 RBI and 158 runs scored, he was ineligible because he had won the award in 1923). So disenchanted were those in the know with the whole process involved with the award, that on May 6, 1929, the AL award ceased to exist with the 1928 winner being the last given (the NL again followed suit, but only after awarding a winner for the 1929 season).

In 1930, The Sporting News – yes the same one you still read today – presented its own “unofficial” winners. Following this turn of events, the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) determined at its meeting on Dec. 11, 1930, to appoint two separate committees, one for each league, to select the MVP winner each year. This meant that the modern day MVP award officially began in 1931, and though the awards voting process has changed through the years in subtle ways, (such as including more writers in the voting and changing the way the points awarded are tabulated) the award has basically been carried on since that point with little change.

Unanimous MVP Winners:

Ty Cobb (1911)

Babe Ruth (1923)

Hank Greenberg (1935)

Carl Hubbell (1936)

Al Rosen (1953)

Mickey Mantle (1956)

Frank Robinson (1966)

Orlando Cepeda (1967)

Denny McLain (1968)

Reggie Jackson (1973)

Mike Schmidt (1980)

Jose Canseco (1988)

Frank Thomas (1993)

Jeff Bagwell (1994)

Ken Caminiti (1996)

Ken Griffey Jr. (1997)

Barry Bonds (2002)

Albert Pujols (2009)

There have been 18 unanimous MVP award winners  in the history of the award.

CY YOUNG HISTORY

In 1956 Ford Frick, the Commissioner of baseball, determined that pitchers were not receiving their due in MVP voting, so he proposed creating a new award that would be given solely to pitchers. Cy Young, the winningest pitcher of all-time, had died less than a year earlier so it only seemed natural to name the pitchers’ MVP award after him (the vote to place his name on the trophy only passed by a 14 to 12 margin though). Who voted? One writer from each city with a team was selected for the honor of casting a vote. More difficult was the decision pertaining to how many Cy Young Awards would be awarded yearly. Frick was greatly opposed to the idea of multiple winners so from 1956-1966 there was but one joint Cy Young award for both leagues. In 1967, after Frick died, William Eckert took over as the Commissioner and ceded to the wishes of the writers and fans an authorized the commission of two awards, one for each league. There have been minor changes to the voting process since the date of its inception (mainly adding more writers to the voting body), but it is in essence the same award that has been given since the split, to one per league, in 1967.

Unanimous Cy Young Winners:

Sandy Koufax (1963, 65-66)

Bob Gibson (1968)

Denny McLain (1968)***

Steve Carlton (1972)

Ron Guidry (1978)

Rick Sutcliffe (1984)

Dwight Gooden (1985)

Roger Clemens (1986, 98)

Orel Hershiser (1988)

Greg Maddux (1994-95)

Pedro Martinez (1999-2000)

Randy Johnson (2002)

Johan Santana (2004, 2006)

Jake Peavy (2007)

Roy Halladay (2010)

Justin Verlander (2011)

***McLain is the only player ever to unanimously win both the MVP and Cy Young awards.

There have been 22 unanimous Cy Young winners handed out over the years.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes was a fantasy star in 2010 winning 18 games for the Yankees, but he fell flat on his face last year going 5-5 with a 5.79 as he fought a mysterious arm issue most of the year. Which Hughes will show up in 2012 – the borderline star of 2010 or the washed up nothing of 2011? That’s the question of the day.

You can read about his rotation mate in Ivan Nova’s Player Profile.

I’ll say this off the top, I wasn’t a fan of Hughes heading into the 2011 season. As early as April of last season I was telling people to be very nervous about Hughes (you can read my thoughts in the April 12th Mailbag). As I stated in that piece, Hughes was dealing with a mysterious arm related issue. At various points he lost 5-7 mph off his fastball and the team was generally perplexed. Tests were run, surgery was contemplated, but in the end it was determined that there was nothing structurally wrong with his arm. He was placed on the 60 day DL and worked through his issues only to return and injure his back. Ultimately the mph came back alleviating some concern, but his previous self never quite returned in 2011.

Hughes did pitch moderately better over his last 13 outings of 2011 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB ratio, but those numbers are hardly imposing nor do they match what he accomplished in 2010 (4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.52 K/BB). There is also this; Hughes was phenomenal in the first half in 2010 going 11-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 16 starts. However, since the All-Star break in 2010, his performance would relegate him to the waiver-wire in almost every league if not for (1) his name and (2) the logo on his jersey. Here are the poor numbers he’s produced since mid-July 2010:

12-11, 5.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.82 K/BB over 150 IP

How bad are those numbers? A.J. Burnett, Hughes’ teammate on the Yankees and one of the biggest disappointments in 2011, went 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.08 K/BB. Pretty close ain’t it? Again, I’m not talking about five starts, or 50 innings with Hughes, I’m talking about Hughes being a decidedly sub par hurler for 150 innings. That’s an awfully long time, an in truth, he’s been awful longer than he’s been good (remember he really only stood out as a starting pitcher in the first half of the 2010 season).

Looking at his career numbers, the picture doesn’t brighten that much either. His career 7.51 K/9 mark is is about a half batter above the league average, but that number is greatly enhanced by his work out of the bullpen in 2009 (96 Ks in 86 innings). His 3.18 walk rate is big league average leaving his 2.36 K/BB ratio as only slightly better than the norm which is about 2.10. His 70.4 percent left on base rate is smack dab on the league average. His .286 BABIP is just off the .290-.300 big league average. His 8.9 HR/F ratio is right there with the big league average that usually sits in the 9-10 percent range. His 1.08 HR/9 ratio, not surprisingly, is league average. Finally, his 0.78 GB/FB ratio certainly isn’t good an it’s well below the league average of just over 1.00. See what I mean when I write that so much of his value is based on 18 wins in 2010 and the NY logo on his jersey?

I will not be targeting Hughes in any league in 2012. In fact, I’ll be hard pressed to end up with him on my roster unless I’m in an AL-only league. He certainly posted strong fantasy numbers in 2010, but as I’ve laid out above, that was based nearly entirely on his hot first half. Over his last 150 innings he’s been a bad pitcher, it’s just as simple as that, and for his career the numbers show a replacement level arm at work. He might return to prominence in 2012 but it would be a bad move to count on that occurring.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jeremy Hellickson

The AL Rookie of the Year, Jeremy Hellickson had a wonderful season in 2011 as he won 13 games, posted a 2.95 ERA and had a 1.15 WHIP over 29 starts covering 189 innings. He completely deserved the ROY award as Hellickson did exactly what everyone though he would do – he pitched very well. None of his pitches are elite, but his ability to mix and match his pitches, and to locate the ball, led to some impressive results. Will he replicate that effort in 2012?

Hellickson didn’t tire late in the year as he lasted at least six innings in seven of his last eight outings. He also performed well allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of those eight outings. Moreover, Hellickson actually posted a better ERA in the second half than the first (2.64 versus 3.21), while his WHIP went up only a hundredth to 1.16. Not bad at all. Hellickson should be capable of throwing 200-innings in 2012, and with his skills that makes him someone you really need to pay attention to.

Though Hellickson’s ability to “pitch” is well advanced beyond his years, I do worry a bit about some of the things we saw on the field in his first full season. A strong strikeout performer in the minors, Jeremy posted a K/9 mark of 8.17 in 36.1 innings in his first season. Last year that number dropped all the way down to 5.57. Remember, I tend to avoid starters that don’t have a mark of at least 6.00. He may not be an 8.00 K/9 kind of guy in the bigs, but he really needs to recapture some of what he lost if he wants to maintain his ratios from 2011 in the future (his minor league mark was 9.8).

Hellickson walked 1.98 batters per nine in his first season, and last year that number grew substantially to 3.43 per nine. Given that the big league average for walks in 2011 was 3.11 per nine, we’re talking about a K deficient pitcher who walks more batters than an average big league hurler. That doesn’t shout out 2.98 ERA, especially in the AL.

Unfortunately for Hellickson, he allows a few too many fly balls as well, the result being another below big league average mark of 0.78 in GB/FB ratio (the big league average is usually about 1.10). Not enough K’s to be average, Too many walks to be average. An inability to produce a big league mark in GB/FB… are you starting to see why Hellickson might be slightly over-drafted in 2012?

Further confirmation of why you should be slightly concerned with a repeat effort in 2012 follows.

Hellickson posted a left on base percentage of 82.0 percent. That mark was was the second highest in baseball (Jered Weaver was at 82.6), and it is not a mark that Hellickson will be able to repeat in 2012 (don’t forget the big league average is about 70 percent). If Hellickson has a strong year in 2012 he’d probably be up around 75 percent. He’s not hitting 80 percent again, and this fact alone puts his ERA in some jeopardy. Further concern should be raised by the fact that Hellickson’s xFIP last year was 4.72, nearly a full run higher than the 3.83 mark he posted in 2010. Even if we split the difference there, we’re talking about a similar performance in 2012 likely resulting in an ERA in the mid-3′s, not below 3.00.

As I’ve already said, Hellickson has an advanced understanding of how to pitch for a fella with only 225.1 innings in his big league career. However, the chances of him repeating his ERA and WHIP numbers in 2012, if he doesn’t change a whole bunch of things about his performance, are rather small. I’m not saying he is going to fail, he is too talented for that, but I’m warning you that it might be wise to avoid building your pitching staff around the young, talented righty from the Rays.

By Ray Flowers

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chris Capuano

Lefty hurler Chris Capuano agreed to a 2-year, $10 million contract to pitch for the Dodgers (as an aside, does his signing mean that Hiroki Kuroda’s career as a Dodger is over?). Coming off a solid season, is the oft injured pitcher someone you should count on like the Dodgers are?

The first thing that has to be mentioned with Capuano is that injuries have played a huge part in defining his career. A 2-time Tommy John Surgery recipient (2002 and 2008), here is a look at his big league innings pitched totals for his career:

33, 88.1, 219, 221.1, 150, zero, zero, 66, 186

To say that there is risk in giving him a 2-year deal is an understatement. The lack of innings pitched consistency is also a major reason while it’s tough to project him to make another 30-starts in 2012. I can’t overstate this fact, so let me hit on it again. Health is a major issue with Capuano. If you roster him make sure that you’ve built in a lot of other mound options because there is a good chance that he will miss at least some time.

Capuano has four seasons in his career of at least 150-innings pitched, and in those four seasons the following points are accurate. Capuano is a solid strikeout arm who hasn’t fallen below a 7.08 K/9 mark. He’s also coming off his best K/9 mark of 8.13. Capuano grades out fairly well in the walk category with a BB/9 of under 3.25 in each of his last three healthy seasons. The result is that his K/BB in two of the last four years has been in the 3′s. The other two years though that mark has been 1.93 and 2.44. While those marks are solid, let’s look at his career rates in a myriad of categories.

Capuano owns a 4.39 ERA. The league average during his career is 4.24.

Capuano allows 12.63 batters per nine innings. The league average is 12.71.

Capuano allows 9.26 hits per nine. The league average is 9.04.

Capuano owns a 1.02 GB/FB ratio. The league average is about 1.10.

Capuano owns a career BABIP of .300. We all know that .290-300 is the big league average.

Capuano has a HR/9 ratio of 1.28. The big league average is about 1.00.

Capuano owns a 72.8 percent left on base rate. The big league average is about 70.

Taking a look at all the data, here are my conclusions.

(1) While I don’t love the idea of giving Capuano a 2-year deal, it’s not excessive. Neither is the dollar figure attached so I really can’t fault the Dodgers for this signing.

(2) Capuano is a solid depth addition to a staff if he can stay healthy. Can he stay healthy is the real question though, and given his track record there should be a healthy does of trepidation here.

(3) If you look at Capuano’s career numbers you pretty much get, in nearly every category, a league average hurler. Again, that makes him a decent add for the Dodgers, but should it excite you in the fantasy game?

(4) What would I do with Capuano in 2012? I’d pass if the bidding got too high, and I wouldn’t draft him in a mixed league to be anything other than a 5th starter type.

Even with last years success, Capuano didn’t really do anything outstanding, his performance dipped a bit in the second half (5.08 ERA), and he wasn’t at all effective on the road (5.42 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Pitching in Dodger Stadium certainly isn’t going to hurt his outlook, nor will getting chances to pitch in Petco Park and AT&T Park against less than stellar offenses, so it’s not like we’re looking at a pitcher who is likely to collapse. Capuano is a nice rotation filler, but you’re making a mistake if you think he is anything more than that.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Matt Joyce

Remember back to June 1st 2011 when Matt Joyce was hitting .370 with nine homers, 30 RBI and 34 runs scored through 51 games? Come on, you remember. You sent me notes about him, called me on my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show, and basically all said he was going to be the breakout star of the 2011 season. You remember what I said all along? Come on, you do. I said that what Joyce was doing was unsustainable, I said it and wrote it over an over again. I don’t think many listened, but you should have. Joyce hit one homer in June and batted .179 over the months of June and July. In the end, Joyce had a nice season hitting .277 with 19 homers and 75 RBI, but I bet you that every single Joyce owner last year was frustrated to all hell with him, an I also bet that many of those of you who owned Joyce would say he was a disappointment because he started out so darn hot last year. To that last group, those of you who were upset with his performance, why didn’t you listen to me? I don’t randomly spout off when I talk about players, I nearly always have valid reasons for the positions I hold. I’m not always right, I’ll freely admit that, but more often than not I end up being right because I let the numbers, and my baseball knowledge, inform my positions. What am I talking about? Joyce is a perfect example of what I mean.

Over the first 490 at-bats of Joyce’s career he hit 25 homers, knocked in 80 runs and batted .243 with a .344 OBP. How did he end up in 2011? He hit 19 homers, drove in 75 runs, batted .277 and had a .347 OBP in 462 at-bats. Those two set of numbers are pretty much in alignment with each other, right? So how could you be disappointed by what Joyce did in 2011? Perception is the answer.

Every year someone breaks out and is killing it, hitting like .350 deep into May or June, and nearly every time that happens a regression takes place with that player over the remainder of the season. That’s what happened with Joyce. If you owned him in the first half he was all-world. If you owned him in the second half he sucked ass. In the end, his numbers were pretty darn solid, he just didn’t get there in an even, linear manner. Again though, the perception is that he stunk, even though his yearly totals should have been what you expected all along.

What should you expect from Joyce in 2011? I’m gonna predict more of the same from last year, and that’s not a bad thing at all (especially since Joyce’s value might be lower than it should be on draft day because of the sour taste his second half fade left in many owner’s mouths). Joyce owns a passable 0.53 BB/K mark for his career, and the same can be said about his 19.3 percent line drive rate and his .295 career BABIP mark. Toss in his 13.3 HR/F rate, and you have the type of profile that could put up .275-25 seasons for a decade. Toss in some steals, Joyce surprised last season with 13 thefts, and you have an ideal option for a 5th outfielder in mixed leagues.

The bottom line is this. Don’t fall into the trap of expectations with any player. Be honest about what you see, what the numbers say, and what scouts tell you. Also, be patient when a player starts slowly, and don’t be afraid to move a player who is clearly performing over his head early in the year. As Joyce showed with his hot/cold streaks last year, in the end the production was about where you should have expected it to be in March, it was just a gut wrenching ride to get there.

By Ray Flowers

Reds Deal to Add Latos

It’s been a few days since the Reds and Padres swung a huge deal, and with the dust settled I thought it would be a good time to investigate both sides and see if there was a winner and loser,

Padres Receive: Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger

Reds receive: Mat Latos

Reds Haul – The Reds got the most productive player in the deal in Latos. A legitimate rising star, Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 189 Ks as a 22 year old in 2010. Last year the record was reversed, he went 9-14, while his ERA (3.47), and WHIP (1.18) went up. He also struck out four fewer batters in 9.2 more innings, but that’s a wash.

For the past two years Latos has been one of the better right-handed pitchers in the NL. He’s also very young which means he’s a nice addition for a team in Cincinnati that needs cost certainty with their players. As for what to expect from Latos, there are some issues to keep an eye on. With only two seasons of data to rely on I’m admittedly guessing a bit here, but I don’t like to see his K/9 rate and ground ball rate go down while his BB/9 rate and line drive rate went up in his second full season. I also don’t like the fact that he’s leaving one of the best pitchers park’s in baseball for a yard that clearly favors the hitter. This is especially concerning given that his 1.03 GB/FB rate for his career is league average. Since Great America ballpark is the most homer happy park in the NL according to Park Indices, he might have a hard time keep that ERA in the low 3′s.

Padres Haul – Where to begin.

Volquez is a mess. Oh he owns a solid arm he did go 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA  and 206 Ks in 2008, but the last few years he has struggled to throw strikes (the last three years his BB/9 mark has been above 5.00). Until he does a better job of location his pitches, it’s going to be very difficult to count on him as anything more than a 5th starter. Still, he moves to Petco which should rectify his homer woes, and when you factor in that he has posted an impressive 1.75 GB/FB ratio over his last 171.1 innings, you can see there is a chance that he could post some top-shelf pitching totals with half the Padres games at Petco.

Alonso hit .330 with a .943 OPS in 88 at-bats last season and he projects as a solid bat at first base (he’s been tried as on outfielder, but he really doesn’t have the athleticism for it). Alonso has also hit .296 with a .842 OPS in 192 games at Triple-A seemingly proving that his time is now. The addition by the Padres is a bit odd though given that they already have Anthony Rizzo as their first baseman of the future. Maybe they work out a way for the duo to play together – possibly Alonso in that outfield role – but the winds are suggesting that the Pads might deal Rizzo this offseason.

Grandal is a switch hitter who is close to being ready for the bigs (his addition likely ends the future with the Padres for Nick Hundley). Grandal hit .303 with 14 homers, 69 RBI and a .401 OBP as he flew through three minor league levels last season. His time will come, likely in 2013.

Boxberger is the least exciting name in the group, though it’s not like he doesn’t have a big arm. After all, he’s struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings in his 153.2 innings as a big league hurler. He worked as a starter in 2010, but last year he was moved to the bullpen.

Winner – Come on now, it’s not even close. I have no idea what the Reds were doing in this deal. They dealt away Volquez, who already has a season on his record that is equivalent to what Latos has posted the last two years. They dealt away Alonso, a bat that many predict could hit .300 with 20 homers year after year. They dealt away a catching prospect in Grandal who was the 12th overall selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft. We’ve heard the Reds say, ‘but we have Joey Votto at first base and Devin Mesoraco is an even better option at catcher than Grandal,’ but even so, you don’t just give up talent because you have depth. Maybe this deal will result in the Reds winning their division in 2012, but moving forward this has the ring of the type of deal that the Giants made years ago when they sent Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Heath Bell

One of the best closers in the game, Heath Bell is moving from the left coast to the right coast as his days in San Diego have ended. As you are well aware at this point, Bell signed a 3-year deal to close for the Marlins worth $27 million (there is an option of $9 million for 2015). Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract (one thing we do know for certain is that the Marlins new uniforms are awful looking, hideous actually)?

There is no disputing the fact that Bell has been one of the best closers in baseball the last three years. Each of those seasons saw Bell produce at least 42 saves making him the only arm in the game with at least 40-saves each of the past three campaigns. Obviously, it’s hardly a surprise that his total of 132 saves leads baseball the past three years (the Giants’ Brian Wilson is second with 122 of those suckers). Bell clearly knows how to shut the door on opponents when given the chance. However, I’m a bit nervous when it comes to Bell. Why? You know I’m gonna tell you…

Bell saw his ERA rise by half a run last year to 2.44, but that doesn’t concern me. ERA’s can be artificially low or high with relievers because of their low innings pitched totals. If we take things to the next level and look at his xFIP we see a 3.67 mark, nearly half a run above his career mark and the second worst total of his career. It’s pretty easy to see why his xFIP was elevated last year – he simply didn’t pitch as well as we’re used to seeing.

(1) Bell’s K/9 rate in 2011was 7.32, a career worst, and 1.90 below his career rate. That’s a scary dip. Bell cut his BB/9 rate down to 3.02, a 4-year best actually, but still 0.01 above his career rate. The result was a K/BB of 2.43, more than half a batter below his career level and a career worst number. Concerns about here.

(2) Bell was greatly aided by Petco Park during his career as a Padres’ reliever. Bell allowed only eight homers over his last three seasons when he hurled 202.1 innings. That’s really not a sustainable rate for a guy who has posted a GB/FB ratio of about 1.25 the past three years. If a few more of those flies reach the seats, Bell’s ERA will go way up. Speaking of batted balls, Bell has seen his ground ball rate dip the past couple of years, and his 43.3 percent mark in 2011 was a career worst. This is another somewhat troubling trend.

(3) Bell had a .261 BABIP in 2011, .040 points below his career rate. Given that he also permitted a line drive rate of 21.3 percent, a 5-year high, a pretty strong case can be made that Bell’s fantasy numbers last season were better than they should have been.

None of the above signals that the end of Bell’s run of success is going to be in May of 2012. However, there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season. I’m not saying that it isn’t possible that he will go off once again, he’s been an elite option for three years now, but I will say this – the trends that we’ve seen from Bell do not paint the picture of a man who still possesses his former elite level skills. Not as young as you might think he is, Bell is already 33 years old and coming off his worst season in three years. Barring injury he’ll likely continue to rack up saves, and a top-10 type closing season still seems quite probable, but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.

By Ray Flowers