Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft
January 23rd, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.
For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.
Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.
I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.
The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?
The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.
The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.
Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.
Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.
I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.
Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.
I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.
The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.
How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.
Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.
Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.
Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.
Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.
Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.
Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.
Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.
Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Ada Wainwright, Carl Crawford, Clayton Kershaw, Cory Leubke, Craig Kimbrel, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, FSTA, Jason Bay, Javier Vazquez, Justin Morneau, Justin Smoka, Kendrys Morales, Mike Stanton, Prince Fielder, R.A.Dickey, Starlin Castro, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Vegas, Vernon Wells, Victor Martinez
By Mike on Jan 23, 2012
Ray – Loved your pick of Longoria with #10. I also think he is going to be a beast this year. He raked last year with 30+ HRs while missing substantial time. The only reason some folks are down on him was his average, but he had an abnormally low BABIP. His strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up.
My question, however, is that as much as I love Longoria this year, were you tempted with Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.
Anyway, I like your team, and congratulations on your well-deserved award.
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Jan 23, 2012
Mike – Thanks for the props. Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them.
Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. Big concern for me.
Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like that. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17% HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.
By Joebagels on Jan 23, 2012
Hey Ray, First I want to Thank You! I had to stop playing fantasy baseball for over 7 years and was well out of the loop. I used to brag about how good I was and was then asked to play and show my stuff. I used your player capsules, listened to your show and read your website, as well as twitter. You answered many personal questions I sent as well. I finished first and third in my two leagues. Thanks Again!
If you can start me off right again I would appreciate it! I’m in a H2H POINTS keeper. I keep 5. I’m keeping J-Up in 10th(1 year left), ellsbury 9th(3yr left), Heyward 22nd(2)… I need two of the following—- Hanson 11th(1), Goldschmidt 23rd(3), Bonifacio 23rd(3), Cueto 21st(3), Beltran 16th(3), Vogelsong 23rd(3)
By Ray Flowers on Jan 23, 2012
JoeBagels – Glad you’re back to fantasy baseball amigo. Also glad I could help you out a bit last year.
Justin Upton
Ellsbury
Heyward – great value in 22nd.
All of the keepers have value. Given the three years you can keep Goldschmidt, with 23rd value, gotta keep him for 4th guy. May not pay off this year, but long term strong add. Fifth guy— tough call. Cueto I dont love, but you can keep for three years. Beltran might be best option for this year, but he’s getting older and might be tough to own 3 yrs from now. Vogelsong less appealing option than Cueto.
I’d go Cueto given the value.
By Joebagels on Jan 26, 2012
Hey Ray thanks for the advice! I am sorry to bother you, but one caveat I get as league champ is I can keep a first round pick but forfeit a Keeper. I could keep Cabrera and lose my 12th overall pick but would be giving up goldschmidt, Cueto and possibly (Longoria or wright at 12). I can not keep Cabrera after this year but his move to 3b has me intrigued is it worth it? Longoria or Wright are not keepable and Cueto and Goldschmidt have 3yrs in the 20th round or so.
Thanks again!!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 26, 2012
Joe Bagels- Unclear what you’re saying. Are you saying you can add Cabrera but you then have to pass on Goldschmidt+Cueto+a 3B?
By Joebagels on Jan 26, 2012
I’m sorry for the confusion I get to keep 5 players. If I keep cabrera I’m only allowed to keep 4 players. I forfeit the 12th overall pick which “could” have been Longoria or a wright.
best way may be, which of these do you like better
Cabrera and a 21st and 22nd round pick
or
(Longoria or Wright), Cueto and Goldschmidt
I have Ellsbury, J-up and Heyward already….
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jan 26, 2012
JoeBagels – Remember, 21st pick is really like the 70th pick with all the keepers, right? So it’s not that great. Still, I think you’d be in great shape with Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Heyward and Cabrera. I’d go that route.
By Joebagels on Jan 26, 2012
well it’s actually player number 252 and 253 because the other guys get slotted into the round they were picked. But I am really leaning towards Cabrera. I could still get Goldschmidt late and I am sure I can find plenty of arms like last year after reading your guide!
Thanks
By Sanibel on Feb 20, 2012
So, Ray, Kemp is your #1 pick overall this year? Also, where would you place my beloved A. Dunn? In my auction league last year I grabbed him with high hopes for 45HRs, and we all know his story there (I still won my league though…).
S
I’m interested mostly in your pitching staff (I’ve been onboard with being patient on drafting them for several years now and it paid off). Last year you recommended James Shields (Ron’s pick this year, I noticed), and he paid off big time. Similarly, do you recommend a pitcher this year that you absolutely love and who’s flying under most radars? I noticed you picked Romero and CJ Wilson ~ any reason?
Thanks again. And again.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 20, 2012
Sanibel – Were you able to pick up my 2012 Draft Guide? http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/
It will show you were I rank Dunn, and it will also give you all my rankings of players including those guys I’d suggest paying special attention to.
ADP: Romero (22 at SP) Wilson (23) with both being top-90 overall selections according to MockDraftCentral. Why would there be an issue with me taken them at #101 and #109 overall? They were the two best options when I drafted, simple as that.
By Sanibel on Feb 20, 2012
Thanks, Ray. I did purchase your “FINAL-Feb15-2012-BBGuys.pdf” ~ money well spent!
I was just curious about the two pitchers, so thanks fr the explanation.
Now, to the James Shields-like pitcher, version 2012: I’m all ears