Player Profile: Ian Kennedy
January 24th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.
Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.
Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.
Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.
Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.
Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.
Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.
Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.
All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?
The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.
Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.
What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks, Ian Kennedy
By SteveP on Jan 24, 2012
Isn’t it actually true that a certain kind of pitcher does lower their BB overnight and maintain it? Isn’t one of the best sources of fantasy value that kind of guy? We don’t notice that Gio Gonzalez sliced a walk off his rate because it is still a high rate, but nonetheless that was a reason (or at least a symptom) of why he turned from a guy you wouldn’t even take on a waiver claim, to someone whose value is fairly robust now. Obviously the jump from 5+ to 4+ for Gio is a different kind of jump than Ian’s 3+ to 2+ – I like Kennedy, although of course I don’t expect those wins again – because his control seems to be a function of changing his pitch selection, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some persistence there.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 24, 2012
SteveP – Certainly players to things like cut a walk off their rate from one season to the next, but that is not the norm. Could Ian stay at last year’s level? Yes. But as you mentioned, cutting his rate as low as he did last year is hard to expect again. Regardless. there are a few other issues that he will need to overcome to maintain his success from last season.
By Mark Hindenach on Jan 24, 2012
CONGRATS on your award!!! Very well deserved! Keep up the wonderful work!
By Carl on Jan 25, 2012
Ray, do you know of any sites (for a fee or no fee) that will analyze a trade for you? I’m looking for an alternative to the league voting on the trade or the veto process. It’s gotten messy in the past and I would like an outside third party to make the decision on all trades. Thanks!!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2012
Mark H – Thanks for the support my friend. I appreciate it.
By Classy Beast on Jan 25, 2012
THERE IS NO BETTER FANTASY BASEBALL WRITER THAN RAY FLOWERS, PERIOD!
By Ray Flowers on Jan 25, 2012
Classy beast – you certainly know your stuff. lol
By Ryan on Jan 27, 2012
Ray,
We have to declare keepers soon. I’m down to my final player slot which i can keep for 3 years. Who do you keep, Alex Avila or Alex Gordon?
My other 2 keepers: Curtis Granderson & Mike Stanton.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 27, 2012
Ryan – Let’s see if I can help with your final keeper (for 3 yrs). Alex Avila or Alex Gordon?
Gordon is a concern cause he only has that one impressive year. Still, scouts will tell you he is legit. His background says he is legit. I’m not saying that he’s going to repeat all of his 2011 effort, but I think he should certainly be productive.
Avila – I think last year is as good as it gets. The power is solid, but the average is likely to decline. Add in the fact that he’s a catcher, and I worry about him at three years.
Go Gordon – I hesitate to protect either if you are only keeping three, but Avila and that catcher spot make me nervous.
By Paikman on Jan 28, 2012
trying to decide on pitchers to keep for this year:
$260 total draft budget; keeper prices as follows:
Kershaw $31
Weaver $22
Kennedy $10
Hudson $13
Jarrod Parker $6
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated as this is the first year we’re doing keepers in an auction league. Thanks.
By Bobby on Jan 28, 2012
Hello Ray.
Any word if/when you will be going back to the 5-8 est tme slot in feb/march on Sirius?
I enjoy your work.
Thank you
By Ray Flowers on Jan 28, 2012
Bobby- Our hope is that we will be back in the 5-8 PM slot in February on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. That’s the tentative plan at the moment.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 28, 2012
Paikman – All depends on how many guys you can keep, and how deep your league is, and how long/cost they are to hold on to? Pass along that info and I’ll better be able to answer your query.
By Paikman on Jan 29, 2012
12 team league; roster size is 25 with 20 starting spots (10 batters and 10 pitchers) and 5 bench. Can keep all, some or none. Salary raise is $5 each year. The values above are what it would cost to keep for 2012. 2013 would be $5 higher each than those values.
By Ray Flowers on Jan 29, 2012
Paikman – If you keep Kershaw, it will only be for this year. Weaver is solid this year at $22, and Kennedy is a must as is Hudson>
Keep for sure: Weaver, Kennedy, Hudson.
Personally, I don’t think you have to keep Kershaw given the above as your top-3, and that would be $76 on your pitchers with no closers. I dont like to spend more than $90 on pitchers if I can help it. If you think you can fill out the rest of your roster on the cheap, then keep Kershaw. I think better plan would be to add an elite closer, and get another $12-15 type arm for the price you would spend on Kershaw.
$260 total draft budget; keeper prices as follows: Kershaw $31 Weaver $22 Kennedy $10 Hudson $13
Jarrod Parker $6
12 team league; roster size is 25 with 20 starting spots (10 batters and 10 pitchers) and 5 bench. Can keep all, some or none. Salary raise is $5 each year. The values above are what it would cost to keep for 2012. 2013 would be $5 higher each than those values.
By Paikman on Jan 29, 2012
Thanks for the advice. I’m looking forward to the release of your 2012 Guide.
By Drbnorce on Jan 29, 2012
Rey, is the upside of Madison bumgardner worth the risk taking ahead of hamles, weaver, haren, lester? Bum’s age and continued development is being compared to kershaw. The oothers are good solid and steady. will Bum keep improving and pass the others?
Thank you for your reply
By Ray Flowers on Jan 29, 2012
Drbnorce – MadBum is a solid target on draft day no doubt, but there is no way that he should be taken ahead of Hamels, Weaver, Haren or Lester. Those that have compared him to Kershaw are off as well. Bumgarner doesn’t have the pure stuff of Kershaw, and there are also some concerns about his mechanics and how that might impact him long term.
By Jim on Feb 12, 2012
When you talk about his career averages, he really only had one year prior to last year. Isn’t saying somebody is going to revert to his rookie year bb/9 numbers a little harsh? I would agree with your assessment if he put up 2-3 years more like ’10, but I thought he had a solid rookie season and took the next step last year like many of the good ones do. And his minor league numbers suggested he could be pretty dominant, kind of like you saw last year. Maybe he slips a little (wins and era), but the guy is no doubt a damn good pitcher.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2012
Jim – Kennedy keeping a 2.23 BB/9 a repeatable number is a stretch. Yes, he had some minor league numbers that were close at a couple of stops, but he also owns a minor league mark of over 2.8, so I’m just pointing out that a repeat of last year’s mark is unlikely.
By Ninemoreouts on Feb 14, 2012
I’m in a 12-team league with 3 keeper slots. The league is pitching crazy, and the top stuff will be snatched VERY quickly. Top pitching for me last year were Lee, Kennedy, Kuroda and Dickey. Top hitters Teixeira and Hanley.
Do you think I’m making a mistake by keeping Kennedy? I can get an extra pick by only keeping two, but I’m afraid there won’t be a whole lot there for me.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Ninemoreouts – You know your league more than me, so trust yourself there. At the same time, there is no way in the world I could possible tell anyone that Ian Kennedy is a top-36 player for 2012 (12 teams, 3 keepers). In fact, I’ve barely got him in my top-30 SPs this year.