Why No Top-300?
January 29th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
I’ve received multiple emails and tweets in the 24 hours since the 2012 BaseballGuys’ Fantasy Draft Guide was released. I have to say I’m humbled by the support from all of you, and thanks so much for the kind thoughts that have been shared (you can read some of the testimonials on the link to The Guide).
The one question that I’ve heard from more than one person is – why is there no top-300 like last year? Was I lazy? Did I forget to add it into the mix in some sort of clerical oversight? You know me better than that at this point don’t you? So what was the conscious decision that led to my omitting the overall list after I added it to The Draft Guide last year?
I never use a top-300 to put a team together on draft day. Never. I think it’s a terrible way to construct a squad. What generally happens is that people slavishly draft off the list. By that I mean, if player #132 is there you obviously draft him over player #148 because he’s listed so much earlier in the rankings, right? Never mind the fact that player #132 may not be a fit for your team as it’s currently constructed. The list dictates take the higher ranked player so people take the highest ranked player. People then wonder why their team finishes in last place in steals… it’s because they drafted their team based on a top-whatever list versus putting together a club that could compete in all categories. This situation is the key reason why I did not include a top-300 in my draft guide.
Would I draft Albert Pujols over Prince Fielder? Of course I would. Do I prefer Pujols over Robinson Cano? You can look at the $ figures in The Guide to get an idea of my thinking there as well (let’s say the answer is yes). It’s fairly easy to discern how to rank the top guys. The real problem though occurs when we start talking about those players that are listed outside the elite level performers. Here’s a concrete example.
Do you take the 8th best first baseman or the 4th best second basemen? Well, if seven of the top eight first baseman are off the board, and there are only eight truly strong options, you had better take guy #8 at first base before you look toward second base. However, what if the #8 first baseman is listed behind the #4 second baseman in the rankings? If you look at the top-whatever list you would end up taking the #4 second baseman who is ranked higher overall than the #8 first baseman. That makes sense right? Or does it? If you followed a top-whatever list you’d take the second baseman even though it would make more sense, because of how the draft was playing out, to take that last elite first baseman. Why? There will still be an elite second sacker the next time you pick because it’s pretty doubtful that five second baseman would be taken in the next round of picks. However, you can be fairly certain that the lone remaining first baseman will be taken in the next round of picks, so if you passed on him, he’d be gone by your next selection. If you followed at top-300 list, you’d make the wrong call and take the second sacker.
I’m sorry if you are disappointed in the lack of a top-300 in The Guide. It was an executive decision I made. I’d hope people would be more focused on the tiering of players – that’s more important than a top-whatever list (in my rankings players are placed in tiers, i.e. groups of players that should be viewed as roughly interchangeable in terms of the production that they will bring). If you focus on the tiering model, instead of an inert top-whatever list, you’re likely to end up with a better team to compete for your league championship.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Draft Guide, Player Rankings, Top-300
By Chase Golden on Jan 31, 2012
Ray, what kind of different drafting strategies do you employ for a H2H draft instead of rotisserie?
By Thomas in Germany on Feb 1, 2012
Very much agree. Baseball is nothing like football. You have different categories and more positions. A Top-XX-List will NEVER be used on Draft Day anyways because you cannot only focus on a Rank but rather on categories. While you could compare Michael Bourn to Brett Gardner, good luck comparing Bourn to Jay Bruce….
By Ray Flowers on Feb 1, 2012
Thomas in Germany – You hit it right on the head there my friend.
By Jason on Feb 2, 2012
Hi Ray,
Just got the guide and it’s great.
I shot a keeper question to you near the end of last season and many things have happened that may have significantly changed things and i wanted to throw the same question to you again.
I have to keep up to 5 guys and here are my options:
Ryan Braun
Evan Longoria
Roy Halliday
Hanley Ramirez
Carl Crawford
Josh Hamilton
I do have the option of keeping less than 5 and getting a pick (IE. if i only keep 4 i would get a 5th round pick before everyone that kept 5 and so on)
Any insight would be great and thanks again for your responsiveness and the time and effort put into this year’s guide.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 2, 2012
Jason – Happy to lend a hand, and thanks for the positive feedback.
Great group.
Keep: Longoria, Halladay for sure. Then the fun starts as everyone else has issues. Ultimately, I’m gonna leave Crawford or Hamilton on the sidelines (keep Braun as much for 2013 as 2012). I’d lean toward keeping Hamilton, then with your first pick grabbing Crawford. Hopefully your leaguemates will shy away from CC since he had that offseason surgery.
By Carl on Feb 2, 2012
Ray,
I’m buying the draft guide today. Even if it stinks (i’m sure it doesn’t), it’s the least I could do for all the twitter/email help you provide…so, thanks in advance!
What do you think of this solution to people quitting in roto…in my 12 team roto I am doing payouts for #1-#8 (top heavy) and #11-#12 has to buy the first round of drinks at the 2013 draft. While I don’t like rewarding mediocrity, that should incent more people than simply paying top 3-4.
By eric on Feb 5, 2012
hey Ray – just ordered the guide. looking forward to it. last years advice got me 2nd in baseball, and 2 championships and a 2nd in football. $8 is the least i owe ya!
By Polka on Feb 13, 2012
Ray,
We do a 7×7 12 teamer and in you draft guide you spoke of best bullpen pitchers:)
I decided to eat steals and Save last year and had 5 top Holds guys and Farnsworth and even though I lost Posey, Dela Rosa and Bucholtz I stiil went wire to wire…Cliff Lee was the Ace and I drafted a staff like a real staff- with starters 1-6 and then the mid relivers…people buy this Draft Guide…that Strategy works if your system allows it too….I’m going to the same draft style again this year…last year it was Pujoles(44),Braun(56), Lee(33), Posey(30), Choo(21), Bucholtz(16) and got lucky with Kendrick, A.Cabrera, and Morse too!!!
Point is…Best Pitcher is a very viable draft day option if your scoring allows it~
By Mike W on Feb 13, 2012
Ray you wrote:
(2) Do you go for established but lower tier
options like Joe Nathan and Andrew Bailey?
Could you give us a few examples of the better targets after the Kimbrel/Paps/Mo/Bell group, of guys with firm control of the job and good skills that are maybe underappreciated?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012
Mike W – I totally could, an in fact I arleady did. You can find a series of articles talking about the bullpen and arms to target in my Draft Guide –
http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/
By Mike W on Feb 13, 2012
Thanks Ray, I see it now.
By Chrissy on Feb 18, 2012
Ray
I want to purchase your Draft Guide but should I wait for the updated version? If yes when do you think that will be? My draft is March 24th.
Thank you!!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2012
Chrissy – The Guide is updated as needed, which basically means there are small tweaks to the rankings each day. If you send me a copy of your receipt, you also get one free update of the rankings. So you can get it now, or wait, your call.
By Steve on Feb 20, 2012
Just ordered. Looking forward to seeing it.
By Robert P on Mar 3, 2012
Ray
I love the analysis in this Guide. I love litening to you talk stats on my ride home. You make a 75 minute commute very soothing while listening to you talk BABIP and Solds (saves + holds) but seeing it on paper just makes it make that much more sense. I am looking forward to the refresh that i will order a few days before my drafts start and while I hate that you guys moved up an hour on the drive as I can only catch about the last 15-20 minutes now, I was a bit late getting on Baseball Guys.com but I am definitely getting my fix from your website. Thanks for everything. There are no other sites that provide the data and insight that you do.
Cheers, and tell the neighbor’s wife I said wassup.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2012
Robert P – Glad you are enjoying the guide. We love doing the show too. Happy to be able to help you work through the drive home — we try to be fun an informative.
We’re actually back in the time slot we had last year, 5-8 PM EDT. That’s why we are called THE DRIVE – Drive time show.
Enjoy the site too my friend.
Thanks for all the kind words.
Neighbor’s wife says hello too.
By jeff on Mar 4, 2012
Ray
I am in a new keeper league, we keep 4 playes.
Who ever you keep next year, you give up the pick 2 rounds before for him. So I draft a player in the 20th round, next year I give up the 18th round.
So my question is would you look at drafting Vmart in the 18th round or higher knowing that he will be a steal for next years draft?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Jeff – I don’t have a problem taking VMart in a keeper, but at the same time drafting a guy that early solely with a plan on 2013 seems like a stretch to me. I’d rather have someone who can help me win this year. What if you don’t even do the league next year?
By Scott on Mar 5, 2012
Ray, I just ordered your guide, waiting somewhat patiently to be delivered in my inbox. 14 team/4 keeper league with holds and doubles. I have 3rd overall pick. Leaning towards Miggy/Tulo but I really feel Votto having a huge year. what you think? Also, I’m keeping Kimbrel(9th round) I.Kennedy(13) Stanton (20th) i have 1 more left, either Logan Morrison in 22nd or david robertson same round. Leaning towards robertson for holds, k’s and low era and whip, what you think?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Scott – If I had #3 I’d take Braun/Kemp/Pujols/Cabrera before I would go Tulowitzki.
You didn’t say so, but it sounds like your league counts holds? If it does, Robertson is very interesting. Still, I’d keep LoMo and just add Robertson at the draft table.