150 Responses to “2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide”

1. By Mike on Jan 30, 2012

   Ray – Just ordered your Draft Guide. Can’t wait to read it tonight. Thanks for your great work and willingness to answer periodic, random questions about fantasy baseball.

   Mike

2. By craig on Jan 30, 2012

   Thanks Ray, just ordered! Looking forward to winning my league again with your help.

3. By Jim on Jan 30, 2012

   Ray, I’m on board and looking forward to the Guide. Thanks for the great analysis year-round.

4. By Jamie on Jan 30, 2012

   I won my league last year with Ray’s draft guide and advice. If you think $8 is to much? Let me tell you it is super cheap for what you get in return.

5. By Ray Flowers on Jan 30, 2012

   Jamie/Jim/Craig/Mike – Thanks so much for the support – hope you enjoy The Guide.

6. By Ray S on Jan 30, 2012

   PUMPED! Thanks for putting this together!

7. By Marc in CO on Jan 30, 2012

   I’m in Ray. All aboard the Oracle Express!

8. By Scott on Jan 30, 2012

   I am a returning member and support The Oracle & The Fantasy DRIVE on Sirius. Last year the Guide was $3 (I would have paid $15). Which means $8 is a complete value and will help me win three separate titles.

9. By wesley on Jan 30, 2012

   Ray i love your guide, but i noticed you dont have a top 250?

10. By Thomas in Germany on Jan 31, 2012

    Just ordered my copy…let’s destroy the competition!

11. By JD on Jan 31, 2012

    Ray – I need AL Only auction values and rankings. Does your guide provide AL Only keeper league dollar values?

12. By Thomas on Jan 31, 2012

    Hey Ray I plan on buying the guide. I will suggest you should post one preview so people can see what they are buying. Pick a random player and show your projection. I bet this would up sales because people what see what a great product they are buying

13. By Morgan on Jan 31, 2012

    I purchased it but thought there were would a combined overall player ranking in the report…

14. By Bangs on Jan 31, 2012

    Ray, hope this doesn’t screw you up but I donated $15 for the guide, as a thanks for your website. Cheers!

15. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Bangs – You da man! Thanks for shooting a few extra bucks my way — MUCH appreciated my friend.

16. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Morgan – You can read my explanation about why I didn’t include one here –
    http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/31/why-no-top-300/

17. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Thomas – The Guide has player rankings, over 600 of them. However, it does not include projections. Those numbers are flawed, and the best systems are only about 70 percent accurate anyway, so I stay away from projecting numbers (the same methodology I followed last year in The Guide).

18. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    JD – The Guide, as stated in the overview, only has mixed league dollar values and rankings. It does not include those for AL-only. Obviously, you could still easily piece together AL-only rankings by simply removing the NL players.

19. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Thomas in Germany – Love keeping the tradition alive in Europe! You rock buddy.

20. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Wesley – You can get my explanation on why I did not include a top-300 in this article:

    http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/31/why-no-top-300/

21. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Marc in CO – Choo choo!

22. By Ray Flowers on Jan 31, 2012

    Scott – I used your quote here – thanks my friend!
    http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/

23. By Robnoxious on Jan 31, 2012

    Just sent you $10, looking forward to the report. Thanks in advance. – Rob

24. By Ray Flowers on Feb 1, 2012

    Robnoxious – Thanks my friend. Should be on its way to you right now.

25. By Chris on Feb 2, 2012

    Ray … just sent you a ten spot … can’t wait for the draft guide … always appreciate your advice!

26. By Ray Flowers on Feb 2, 2012

    Chris – Thanks for the investment. I hope you enjoy the product.

27. By Karen Green on Feb 3, 2012

    Ordered the 2012 Draft Guide on 2/1. Have not seen it in my Inbox. Any idea how many days it takes to arrive. Looking forward to reading it.

28. By Ray Flowers on Feb 3, 2012

    Karen – The Guide has been sent to you. Perhaps you can check your spam folder? I’ll resend it. If it’s during work hours, the Guide is always sent out in less than 4 hours.

29. By matt b petty on Feb 4, 2012

    u just got my $10; well worth it
    thanks bro

30. By Mike Massotto on Feb 6, 2012

    Ray,
    Loved the guide. Great work. However, it is missing one critical thing: PAGE NUMBERS! Would be very helpful in the future, especially when it prints double-sided. Thanks.

31. By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2012

    Mike – The Guide is meant to be read as a PDF, so there are numbers at the top if you are using Adobe to read it. As for #’s on pages, I can see that as being useful. I’ll look into the logistics of adding them to future versions.

32. By Brian on Feb 7, 2012

    I’m in a H2H points league. Do you project things like singles, doubles, triples & walks for hitters and innings pitched & walks for pitchers? 5×5 rankings are usually a much different ranking then a points league. Thanks!

33. By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2012

    Brian – I don’t predict numbers for anyone, at least officially. I’ve got an article coming out this week that will deal with his subject and why I do what I do (or more appropriately why I don’t). Bottom line – projections systems are like 70 percent accurate, an I just don’t like those odds.

34. By Brian on Feb 7, 2012

    Thanks for the response! Donation sent. Looking forward to reading your guide.

35. By Joebagels on Feb 7, 2012

    Got the guide, A great read. We are starting a new league and actually using SOLDS this year. Love that section in the guide! So when people bid like crazy over Mariano, Valverde etc I’ll take my cheap Marshall and Clippard etc and add the rest to Hitting! Thanks Ray!

36. By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2012

    JoeBagels- You got it my friend. You rank up the best relievers, even if they are setup man, and run away with that title!

37. By Jeff OS on Feb 7, 2012

    Ray – I’m in a 5×5 AL only league, where closers are referred to as “My Precious”. Each team can protect eight players, and 11 of the 14 team closers will be kept. I find myself without any and will probably hose my draft try to catch up to the middle. Is there a better strategy?

38. By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2012

    Jeff OS – I don’t understand your question. You wrote “will probably hose my draft try to catch up to the middle.” Meaning what?

39. By Scott on Feb 8, 2012

    Ray, does the guide provide projections and 5 x5 dollar values?

40. By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012

    Scott- The Guide provides 5×5 $ values for mixed leagues for over 600 players. The Guide does not include player projections. There will be an article explaining why, but it’s basically because projections are only about 70% effective, and I don’t like that number enough to put numbers out there that will be wrong.

41. By Jeff OS on Feb 8, 2012

    Ray – I meant that if I try to grab a bunch of potential closers, I’ll more than likely wind up 4 or 5 point for the category. As the other owners like to have two closers, I would have to sacrifice other areas to grab whatever is out their just to catch up.

42. By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012

    Jeff OS – Did you get a copy of The Draft Guide? http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/

    There are two articles in there that would really help you with the relievers. One is how to evaluate them, and the other lists some middle relievers that you should pay attention to.

43. By Phil on Feb 13, 2012

    Ray I usually draft OF for my first few picks because that’s where the concentration of the 5 tool guys are. Is there a case to be made for eating Braun’s suspension if he’s a 4th or 5th round pick in a 25 man roster league?

44. By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012

    Phil – I wrote about Braun in the following story – http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/01/comments-greatest-hits/

    You can draft him that early if you want, but that’s pretty darn early if he is going to miss 50 games.

45. By Scott on Feb 14, 2012

    Ray, been listening to you on Sirius radio for a while and love your input an analysis. I just purchased your guide a look forward to reading it. My 1st draft is on Feb 21st so if i could get it before then, that would be great. Just a quick question. Why do you think its taking so long on the Braun appeal? Could this mean that MLB is possibly looking to throw the suspension out or maybe reduce it?

46. By Jim on Feb 16, 2012

    Ray,
    In your draft guide, is there an AL Only player rankings as well? I also sent you a message on Twitter.
    Thanks,
    Jim

47. By Ray Flowers on Feb 16, 2012

    Jim – As of right now, the Guide is only mixed. Obviously you can remove the NL players and get the same list on it’s own. Thinking of doing just rankings for AL/NL in a couple of weeks, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen.

48. By James on Feb 17, 2012

    Ordered the draft guide last night and it hasn’t been sent yet. Just wondering how long it takes. Thanks!

49. By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2012

    James – You should have it by now. Please let me know you got it.

50. By Eric on Feb 18, 2012

    Ray… Ordered the Draft Guide a week ago. Still no word on when it will arrive. Can you help? Thanks.

51. By Reed on Feb 18, 2012

    Tossed you a couple extra bucks, as I have no doubt the guide will be worth it.

    Keeper question for you as well — 5×5 can keep forever in later rounds. can you rank these guys?

    Steven Strasburg
    Adam Wainwright
    Mike Morse
    Pablo Sandoval
    Mike Trout
    Jesus Montero
    CJ Wilson
    Gio Gonzalez
    Daniel Hudson
    Logan Morrison
    Drew Storen
    Joel Hanrahan
    Alex Avila

52. By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2012

    Eric- Send me an email at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com with your receipt. Is it possible it’s in your spam folder? It’s always sent out in 24 hours, tops.

53. By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2012

    Reed – Thanks for the support my friend.

    Steven Strasburg
    Mike Trout
    Adam Wainwright
    Pablo Sandoval
    Gio Gonzalez
    Daniel Hudson
    CJ Wilson
    Jesus Montero
    Logan Morrison
    Mike Morse
    Drew Storen
    Joel Hanrahan
    Alex Avila

54. By Reed on Feb 18, 2012

    Thanks, Ray — the one i’ve been having the most trouble with is Hudson vs. Wilson. Does it change the analysis if I’d like to have them both (but can’t keep them both), since it seems Wilson’s stock is on the rise while Hudson’s is dropping for some weird reason.

55. By Pat Mahoney on Feb 18, 2012

    Ray, I listen to ya every day and appreciate your knowledge. I am in a Home Run league, we draft in April and that is it for season. How can I get your HR projections for the season?? Thanks

56. By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2012

    Pat M – I don’t give number projections out. You can read more about why that is here –

    http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/08/category-targets/

57. By Ray Flowers on Feb 18, 2012

    Reed – Over at Mock Draft Central there is little to support the position that Daniel Hudson’s value is slipping.

    He’s currently 21st amongst pitchers, Wilson is 21st. Hudson is also seven years younger than Wilson.

    http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/report_adp.jsp

58. By Ken Caeti on Feb 18, 2012

    Ray: I just purchased your 2012 baseball draft guide- finally! A steal at $8 I’m sure after receiving your wealth of knowledge on Sirius radio, Twitter, and in articles! Thank you for all your efforts & very much looking forward to the start of the baseball season. Play ball!

59. By Eric on Feb 19, 2012

    Awesome guide and even better customer service. Ray went the extra mile even after my dumb ass e-mail server was preventing the guide from being sent. Thanks Ray! I’m now ready for my drafts.

60. By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2012

    Ken – Glad to hear you’ve been able to order a copy. I’m grateful for the support, and hope that 2012 brings you a lot of success in the fantasy game.

61. By Ray Flowers on Feb 19, 2012

    Eric – Glad we got it figured out. Thanks for the props, and now go get em at the draft table.

62. By Greg on Feb 20, 2012

    Hey Ray…I ordered the draft guide last night and haven’t recieved it yet. Do you have an idea when i might recieve it? Thanks!

63. By Ray Flowers on Feb 20, 2012

    Greg- Did you receive the Guide. If not, send me another note.

64. By Reed on Feb 20, 2012

    Ray — I should’ve been more specific. Our league is on yahoo, and on there Hudson is going at like 100, while CJ is going in the 80s. My fit instinct has been to keep Hudson, but Wilson appears to be better value. I’m going with my gut and with the baseballguy.

    Follow up. Trade strasburg for hosmer? Keep indefinitely in rd 20.

65. By Phil on Feb 20, 2012

    Hi Ray,

    My league is doing three keepers for the first time this year. We can keep forever and no impact on draft picks. The top candidates are….

    Andrew McCutchen
    Matt Holliday
    Nelson Cruz
    Ryan Braun
    Konerko
    Eric Hosmer
    CC Sabathia
    Dan Haren
    Stephen Strasburg

    My first impression is McCutchen, Braun and Strasburg but there is the 50 games and I never draft pitchers early. I’m just not used to thinking multi-year. Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

    Phil

66. By Ray Flowers on Feb 20, 2012

    Reed – If you get to keep a guyforever, both Strasburg and Hosmer are great plays. What are the keeper rounds for each? What other pitchers do you have?

67. By Ray Flowers on Feb 20, 2012

    Phil – Based one your question, I’m going to assume you are keeping three guys since you didn’t say. You did say you can keep guys forever. That being the case, I have to keep Braun. Yes he missed 50 games this year, but if he’s an all-star for the next 8 years, does that matter? Second keeper is McCutchen. Across the board talent who is still very young. Third keeper … Holliday, Sabathia, Haren are very tempting. However, all are older compared to the others. If going young, it’s Strasburg or Hosmer. Take Strasburg. He could be a great, not good but great, pitcher for a decade. Certainly a risk, but he’s the one I’d protect.

68. By Phil on Feb 20, 2012

    Many thanks Ray

69. By Joe N on Feb 21, 2012

    Just donated $8 for the Draft Guide. Can’t wait to view it.

70. By Reed on Feb 21, 2012

    Ray — hosmer and strasburg would both be in round 20. I also have Daniel Hudson and Wainwright.

    Two guys coming back from TJ seems awfully risky.

71. By Cliff Prince on Feb 22, 2012

    Hi Ray

    Love the website & your show on xm. I’ve been doing this fantasy bb thing for 25 years now, in different formats, rules,etc. But the one particular league I’ve been in all this time does something I rarely see anywhere and I don’t understand why. We use a balanced draft. In the 1st 12 rounds you must fill out a starting lineup (C,1b,2b,3b,ss,3 Ofs, 3 SP’s, 1 reliever). They can be taken in any order you want of course but you must fill all those spots before you can start doubling up a position. So you can’t pick Votto & Texiera for your first 2 picks. Or 5 outfielders in your first 5 rounds. After the 12th round you can take whoever, whenever. By the way, this is a head to head league, using categories and not points. We de-emphaize speed by having a category called XB’s (TBs+Walks+StolenBases) as we don’t feel steals should have such a high weight.

    Now I know its called “FANTASY baseball”, but we’ve always seen it as “fantasy BASEBALL”, where we strive to make it as close to simulating the real game as we can. The idea is to build your starting lineup, then build your bench. Oh, we only start 1 catcher by the way LOL. I haven’t seen any baseball games recently where a team has 2 catchers playing at the same time.

    Anyway, just wondering your thoughts on a balanced draft and have you ever used one? I find it helps for draft strategy. One might think it would help promote parity and to a point it might. However, I find it makes the building of the bench much more important and truly rewards those that do their homework.

    love your work!
    Cliff

72. By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012

    Cliff Prince – Thanks for the support. 25 years is an impressive run in fantasy baseball, kudos.

    I see your point about filling your starting lineup first. I think the reason that no one does that though is that it removes an aspect of strategy from the proceedings. You can’t block another team. You can’t add a great value play if he is still sitting there. If you have Pujols you have to wait until the 13th round to take Mike Morse and he won’t be there at that point. Your setup does require a totally different set of prep rules but its very limiting in the different directions that you can take it in.

73. By Dave on Feb 26, 2012

    Anyone know how long it takes to get the guide after you purchase it.

74. By Ray Flowers on Feb 26, 2012

    Dave – You will always have it within 24 hrs tops, usually within 12, most of the time within three.

75. By William Harvey on Feb 28, 2012

    Its been 24 hours & no Guide yet. How long til I get it ????

76. By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012

    William – Check your SPAM folder. I’ve sent out the Guide to everyone that has ordered it at present. If still an issue, send me your receipt at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

77. By Steve on Feb 28, 2012

    Hey Ray. Ive heard you say on the show on occasion that youve updated your baseball guide. If so, how does someone who already received it gain access the updated info? Thanks

78. By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012

    Steve – This is taken directly from the Draft Guide article :

    http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/

    Everyone that purchases The Guide will be able to get one free update of the player rankings. Get The Guide now, study it, take in all it has to offer. If you’d like up updated version of the rankings contained within it a few days before your draft, all you will need to do is to shoot me an email, attach your receipt from PayPal, and I’ll send you a file with the updated player rankings in a spreadsheet.

79. By michael on Mar 1, 2012

    hey ray! I ordered the draft guide a few days ago? Can you send me a copy! need it for my draft! thanks

80. By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2012

    Michael – check your spam folder. draft guide is always sent out within 24 hrs. If you don’t have, send me an email at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com with a copy of your receipt.

81. By Jay A on Mar 2, 2012

    Whoops think i ordered it twice by mistake! Yikes! My wifes gunna kill me..well if i win my league itll b worth it!!

82. By Evan Gudmestad on Mar 3, 2012

    Ray – Could I get a little feedback on my Mock draft? I used the tier system in your guide and found out I really like it. Just looking to improve my strategy for draft day!

    1. Carlos González (Col – OF)
    2. Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
    3. Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
    4. Paul Konerko (CWS – 1B)
    5. Michael Bourn (Atl – OF)
    6. Aramis Ramírez (Mil – 3B)
    7. Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
    8. C.J. Wilson (LAA – SP)
    9. Jayson Werth (Was – OF)
    10. Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP)
    11. Brandon Morrow (Tor – SP)
    12. Wandy Rodríguez (Hou – SP)
    13. Sergio Santos (Tor – RP)
    14. Brandon League (Sea – RP)
    15. Max Scherzer (Det – SP)
    16. Yadier Molina (StL – C)
    17. Colby Lewis (Tex – SP)
    18. Álex Ríos (CWS – OF)
    19. Roy Oswalt (Phi – SP)
    20. Adam Dunn (CWS – 1B)
    21. Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
    22. Jonathan Sánchez (KC – SP)
    23. Gavin Floyd (CWS – SP)

83. By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2012

    Jay A – It’s totally worth it. Just give her a nice warm hug and tell her she is beautiful.

84. By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2012

    Evan G – Tiering really does work well if you employ it correctly.

    Really love the squad – of course, a lot of the guys I do like. Maybe could have used another RP, but other than that, no issues here with me.

85. By Mark Esbenshade on Mar 3, 2012

    Hey Ray! I have been listening to you on Sirius, and got the draft guide today. Lots of great information, epecially the middle relievers role (we have a holds cat.!)

    I’m in a mixed, h2h, 12team category league and I have the #1 pick. Who should I take??!! 5 tool Kemp or Braun, or Cabrera? And I’ve got to look at Pujols also. The most recent consensus seems to go with M. Cabrera, but those steals that Kemp & Braun get are tantalizing. What say you? Thanks!

86. By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2012

    Mark E – Glad you’ve enjoyed listening to us on the Radio. Having a great time in PHX covering the AL ONLY LABR draft. Also happy your pleased with the Draft Guide.

    I would take Braun, Kemp, Cabrera as my top-3.

87. By Mark Totts on Mar 4, 2012

    Hi Ray:

    Lot the XM show and just ordered the guide. Wondering if you could tell me if your article about why there shouldn’t be playoffs in fantasy baseball is somewhere on your site?

88. By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012

    Mark Trotts – Never wrote an article about playoff baseball per se, but here are some thoughts on H2H –

    http://baseballguys.com/2011/09/21/mailbag-september-21-2011/

89. By MikeZ on Mar 6, 2012

    Hey guys, I did the donation thing hoping to get the draft guide…. I have not seen anything yet, needing it for my draft soon!!! thanks!

90. By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2012

    MikeZ – Did you check your Spam Folder? If you dont see it there, send me a copy of your receipt to fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

91. By Vanekk on Mar 9, 2012

    Ray, thanks. Draft guide is great stuff.

    Yesterday i’ve participated in my first draft: 10 man H2H (10 batters, 2SP, 3RP, 4P and 5 BN).
    Could I get a little feedback on my draft? =)

    1.Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
    2.Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
    3.Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
    4.Félix Hernández (Sea – SP)
    5.Paul Konerko (CWS – 1B)
    6.Starlin Castro (ChC – SS)
    7.Aramis Ramírez (Mil – 3B)
    8.Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP)
    9.Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
    10.Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
    11.Ricky Romero (Tor – SP)
    12.David Ortiz (Bos – Util)
    13.Chris Young (Ari – OF)
    14.Joakim Soria (KC – RP)
    15.Rafael Betancourt (Col – RP)
    16.Cory Luebke (SD – SP,RP)
    17.Frank Francisco (NYM – RP)
    18.Doug Fister (Det – SP)
    19.Jim Johnson (Bal – RP)
    20.Peter Bourjos (LAA – OF)
    21.Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)
    22.Dexter Fowler (Col – OF)
    23.Ted Lilly (LAD – SP)
    24.Scott Baker (Min – SP)

    And 1 more question: what kind of players i have to take on bench? Batters, SP, RP?
    And how it depends on league’s format? (roto or H2H)?
    It’s my first MLB fantasy experience, so i would be appreciate for advice =)

92. By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2012

    Vanekk – Honestly, in a 10 team lg that only drafts 24 guys, there is no worry at all about what type of bench you have – just get the right players. You’re league drafts 240 players. I just did an NL-only draft that we took 377 players. There is an abundance of talent left in your setup.

    Love your top-4 here. I probably wouldn’t have gone four relievers given how shallow your league is. Your also going to need to look to add some speed.

93. By Vanekk on Mar 9, 2012

    Thanks for answer!

    Yeah, after draft i thought about my relievers the same. Thinkig about dropping one of them (Thornton or Johnson) for John Danks.
    I will take in mind note about speed.

94. By Stan on Mar 13, 2012

    Hello Ray,

    do you have the AVERAGE BASES ALLOWED (ABA) metric calculated for all the 225 pitchers in the 2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide?

95. By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012

    Stan – I do not. GREAT TO KNOW YOU REMEMBER ABA. I had a request for SWIP the other day too. Guess I know what I need to get to work on writing. I’ll try to get something on both up on the site.

96. By Matt on Mar 13, 2012

    Ray – keeper question – 15 team 5×5 roto (OBP instead of AVG) – only 1 catcher and 5 OF per team – Alex Avila $3 or Logan Morrison $9? Leaning towards LoMo – thoughts?

97. By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012

    Matt – It’s only a one catcher league, but it’s still 15 teams deep. Avila at $3 is a fine value (after all, he did lead all qualifying catchers last year in OBP). Keep the catcher over LoMo at $9.

98. By Stan on Mar 13, 2012

    Thanks for the info Ray. I wanted some different metrics to look at the pitchers this year. I went through my old notes I wrote from reading your columns all these years and found SWIP and ABA. I calculated SWIP since I can easily find the data for it. I just could not find any site that published total bases allowed so I could not calculate ABA.

99. By Ryan on Mar 14, 2012

    Ray,

    You say A-Gon won’t live up to the hype, but I have a hard time agreeing with that one. He has said that for the better part of 2 years he’s been injured in his shoulder where he couldn’t finish through his swing effectively. It didn’t effect his ability to hit the ball, but only his power. In watching him play you could almost tell that he was purposely directing the ball rather than letting it fly, which caused the increase in his BABIP. Now that his shoulder is healthy, I think we see the power come back all season and in that lineup you have to think the RBI’s will continue to be high. I agree he won’t hit .330 again, but a .300+ avg I think is easy. I think he very well will finish higher this year than even last year with the increase in power.

100. By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2012

     Ryan -I’ve said this many times, Fenway is NOT a good park for left handed power hitters. It’s short down the right field line, but it’s super deep in right center. Last 3 years it’s 11th in HR for AL lefties according to Park Indices.

     Gonzalez also isn’t a .330 hitter. Massive .380 BABIP not going to be replicated. He’s going to be very good, but a season of .330-35 ain’t happening.

101. By Matt K on Mar 14, 2012

     Ray, just wondering if you could tell me, is there any order in positions that you draft in? Like for example do you draft best possible at the moment or to you draft 1b, ss, sp, c, etc.. I would like to hear in the last draft you did for mixed league the top 10-15 positions you drafted and in what round, if you could?

102. By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2012

     Matt K – To answer your question, there is no answer to your question. Baseball is not like fantasy football. There is no real plan (RB, WR early, K/DEF at end). There are a myriad of ways to build a fantasy baseball team, unlike fantasy football that has one basic template.

     I would avoid taking RPs for at least the first 8-10 picks in almost all leagues.
     I’d avoid taking an SP for at least five rounds in almost all leagues.
     I’d avoid taking a catcher in the first five rounds in almost all leagues.

     However, these are guidelines, not rules.

     Drafting is an art — it takes practice to get good at it.

103. By Jay on Mar 14, 2012

     ray…sorry to do this to ya, but i figured you’d like a challenge…..standard 5×5 roto…here is my draft:

     8 Albert Pujols, LAA 1B K
     20 Jose Bautista, Tor 3B K
     32 Micheal Bourn K
     44 Dan Uggla, Atl 2B
     53 Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP
     68 Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP
     77 Brett Gardner, NYY OF
     92 Tommy Hanson, Atl SP
     101 Jason Heyward, Atl OF
     116 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS
     125 Adam Lind, Tor 1B
     140 Jose Valverde, Det RP
     149 Andrew Bailey, Bos RP
     164 Kyle Farnsworth, TB RP
     173 Josh Willingham, Min OF
     188 Kenley Jansen, LAD RP
     197 Alex Rios, CWS OF
     212 Mike Carp, Sea 1B
     221 Austin Jackson, Det OF
     236 Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B
     245 Vinnie Pestano, Cle RP
     260 Jonny Venters, Atl RP
     269 Sergio Romo, SF RP
     284 J.P. Arencibia, Tor C
     293 David Robertson, NYY RP

     my questions is this. there are a bunch of decent pithcers on our wire right now…chacin, beuhrle, hughes, sanchez, ogando, niese, harrison, porecello, bailey…can/should i grab any of these guys to round out my Sp’s or just go with the nasty RP strategy that i have drafted? so tempting to grab a guy like chacin and hope for the best before somone else does you know? any thoughts bud…BTW love the show…catch the replay at 5 am on the way to work and then the live show on the way home at 5…

     Jay

104. By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2012

     Jay – Big fan of Bourn and Gardner, but it’s really tough to roster them both. Tons of speed, but no power.

     I think you went bonkers on RPs. I wouldn’t have taken Farsnworth that early, an again I think you went pretty damn heavy with RPs, but there is no disputing that you have elite level arms.

     You only have 3 SPs. That means one of two things (a) you are going to try and win ERA, WHIP and SVs and hopefully finish middle of pack in Ks. (2) You’re going to mix and match arms and try to get more innings under your belt. I’m inclined to say stick with plan A which obviously was your plan from the get go. If you wanted to add an arm, go Niese or Chacin.

     Glad you get a chance to listen to the show.

105. By jay on Mar 15, 2012

     Ray, absolutely correct…doing a live projection of each of the teams in the league, and then comparing my totals vs the averages for a 12 team league, i ended up at about a 4 or 5 in K’s and 3 or 4 in wins, without moving anything. now i super active on the wire and i can grab the next emerging pitcher when they get hot and ride them, which only helps my cause. reason i took farns so early…closer run like crazy…had to grab him to get that third guy with a job…

     as for bourn and gardner…if you add uggla, hammer, lind, bourn, garnder’s stats all together and divide by 5 to get thier average….you get 5 andrew mccutchens from last year (82/19/70/23/.262)….and thats conservative projected stats IMO. if i can get 2 of these guys to step up…then ill have 5 jeff francuoers…i think we all agree that 5 cat guys are the way to go…i just had to do it mixing 2 or 3 cat guys together..

     quick question…think Chacin is worrth grabbing and dropping carp to get that 4th starter and hope the youngster locates his strikes this year? thanks bud

     jay

106. By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2012

     Jay – I like your way of thinking, but who is Hammer? lol

     Chacin is a nice arm, but he was awful in the 2nd half. Still, when I saw Carp on your team I was kind of like ‘hhhmm.’ If you want to add Chacin’s big arm, that would be fine by me.

107. By jay on Mar 15, 2012

     hammer is the nickname they have for josh willing ham in dc .

108. By Chris on Mar 15, 2012

     This was asked earlier, but I didn’t see a response. Do you think your guide will be helpful for a H2H league that counts multiple stats? (1B, 2B, 3B, K, HOLDS, BB, etc? Rather than just the traditional 5X5?

109. By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2012

     Chris – My Guide will help anyone involved in the fantasy game. A large portion of the guide talks about rookies, middle relievers, draft strategies, auctions etc. I also try to show how to break down players – i.e. which numbers matter – how do you analyze players – what should you be concerned with? In that sense, 45 of the 55 pages speak directly to everyone.

     The rankings are for 5×5. At the same time, there really isn’t that much of a difference in most instances. Maybe a little up, a little down, but you’re always going to want to take Ryan Zimmerman over Mark Reynolds, right?

110. By Don on Mar 19, 2012

     How long after sending donation can I expect to receive the draft guide?

111. By Dave on Mar 19, 2012

     Hey Ray,
     I donated so how do i get my draft guide???

112. By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012

     Don – the Guide is sent within six hours of order almost every time.

113. By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012

     Dave – You should have the draft guide about six hours after you place your order.

114. By Jeff on Mar 19, 2012

     When was the draft guide last updated?

115. By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012

     Jeff – Guide is update every day as needed.

116. By Joe M on Mar 19, 2012

     I got this draft kit yesterday afternoon. I have to say it’s one of the best print draft kits I’ve seen. What Ray put together is not your typical cheat sheet to bring to your draft table. This kit teaches you how to make your own cheat sheet using any formula to help you in almost any category and league format you want.

     There are player tiers in here, so you can see Ray’s predictions for GROUPS of players so for anyone that wants player rankings have something to base their draft off.

     Too bad I ordered this the day of one of my drafts, but I have all week now to use this to prepare for my second draft next week.

     Thanks so much, hands down best bang for the buck

     -Joe

117. By Joe M on Mar 19, 2012

     Didn’t really get to use it for this draft but I’m curious for your opinion on this draft of mine. (12 team 6×6 — hold and walks) Closers and Middlemen went way too early for my liking so I might need another closer

     This is also a first year keeper league where I can keep 3 players next year in the round drafted (from 4th round and on).

     I know there are a few question marks here (wainwright, Johnson, Holliday) but their upside sold me.

     (4) Jose Bautista 3B
     (21) Mark Teixeira 1B
     (28) Dan Uggla 2B
     (45) Matt Holliday LF
     (52) Zack Greinke SP
     (69) Matt Moore SP
     (76) James Shields SP
     (93) Adam Wainwright SP
     (100) Dee Gordon SS
     (117) Josh Johnson SP
     (124) Nick Swisher RF
     (141) Paul Goldschmidt 1B
     (148) Ryan Roberts 2B
     (165) Jason Motte RP
     (172) Jesus Montero DH
     (189) Cameron Maybin CF
     (196) Kenley Jansen RP
     (213) Yoenis Cespedes CF
     (220) Sergio Romo RP
     (237) Edwin Encarnacion 3B
     (244) Kurt Suzuki C
     (261) Luke Gregerson RP
     (268) Eric O’Flaherty RP
     (285) Scott Baker SP
     (292) Vinnie Pestano RP
     (309) Alejandro De Aza RF
     (316) Jason Bay LF

118. By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012

     Joe M- You da man. I even added your comment to the draft page. Glad you are enjoying it my friend.

     http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/

119. By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012

     Joe M – I have an issue with Johnson an Wainwright – lots of risk with those two. However, as 4/5s on hill they are strong options. Also think 4 of first 8 picks on SP far too much. 5 in 10, way too much.

     Like how you closed though. Jansen, Romo, Suzuki, Baker, De Aza, Bay — great pick ups.

120. By Joe M on Mar 19, 2012

     That’s where I feel Wainwright and Josh Johnson were the issue, probably not as much fear as you with the risk as opposed to possibly getting some more offense there.

     Plenty of pitchers for me to get a 4 and 5 later on.
     However, from the way this draft was going, there are 3 teams who really waited too long on pitchers and are in dire need.

     Game Plan
     If Wain or Johnson play to potential I can trade one for a much better hitter than what I would have gotten in the rounds I drafted them in. (especially Johnson who can be lights out ridiculous early on before he usually injures himself)

     But I hear you, and if I can do it again I would probably adjust my round 5-10 strategy.

     Now off to prepare for my next weeks draft which is much bigger money.

121. By Bob on Mar 19, 2012

     Had 2 questions:
     What do you think the productivity and ETA’s of LaHair, Rizzo, and B. Jackson be for the Cubs (Don’t really like Cubs, just sort of ended up with them for low dollars>)?

     Also, I’m in a super deep 12 team NL only auction league and have 1B/OF overload with Berkman, Duda, LaHair, Rizzo. Votto’s contract with me ran out last year and he goes back to auction this year but I’ve got a strong inclination to buy him back and put everyone in OF slots (Rizzo’s in the minors) and cause a 1B crisis for the rest of my league. Have you seen that sort of move creating a big benefit or can you expect owners to stick to their budgets and not chase a dwindling postion too much? He’ll be 1 of the first 5 players up so I would catch them unprepared to go “all in” on Votto.

     Enjoy the website and radio show.

122. By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012

     Bob – Totally guessing on how the Cubs will play first base. I think Rizzo comes up at mid-season. However, if LaHair has 17 homers and 48 RBI at mid-season, maybe that changes. Jackson is a 20/20 option in the making. I’d think June for him, but could be later as well.

     NL 1B gets thin quick. QUICK. Votto is a massive upgrade over all of them. However, going $48 to get him or whatever gets you the talent add, but it limits your $ to spend to fill the rest of your team. Do you lose back the advantage you gain with Votto in that scenario?

123. By Bob on Mar 19, 2012

     We usually run about a 28% inflation rate. My hope is that I would help initiate a bought of overspending on 1B in addition to retaining probably the best bat available. I’m pretty solid in the top 3 with my keepers, would probably spend high on an SP and fill out my roster with lower tier options. My keepers are
     Mesoraco
     Rizzo
     S. Castro
     Cargo
     Fowler
     Bourn
     Berkman
     Duda
     B. Jackson
     LaHair
     T. Hanson
     B. Norris
     Street
     Betancourt
     at about 135 of a $275 budget. 25 player roster, 2C and 10 P(4SP,4RP, 2P) Thanks for your consideration.

124. By Joe M on Mar 20, 2012

     Hey Ray

     5 pitcher in top 10 guy here.

     Got my first offer.
     I’d get Lawrie (I can move Bautista to OF) and Frank Francisco
     for
     Wainwright and Edwin Encarnacion?

     Pull the trigger?

125. By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012

     Joe M – Fair deal. However, Lawrie has little big league experience, and while I like Francisco’s arm, he’s no lock to hold down the 9th, so your note exactly adding two locks.

126. By Fenz on Mar 20, 2012

     OK, Ray, your periodic advice last year helped get me into my mixed, 12-team, points league postseason. Here’s my season-opening question. Which three of the following players would you freeze (for a 27-man, 22-active player roster): Lawrie, J. Reyes, M. Moore, C. Santana, D. Hudson and Cueto? I am already freezing Pedroia and Grienke. Thanks.

127. By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012

     Fenz – You’ll want to freeze the following guys (in addition to Pedroia and Greinke): Reyes, Lawrie, Santana. Tough to pass on Moore, and you could keep him for his potential greatness, but I’m leaning toward the position players.

128. By William Harvey on Mar 20, 2012

     When is your last update for the Guide ??? My draft is April 6th

129. By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012

     William Harvy – I’ll likely have my last update for the Guide on my Bday, April 1st.

130. By Scott on Mar 22, 2012

     Ray. Thanks for your advice thus far. Can you help me out with something? I’m in an 11 team roto league 6X6 with the additional catagories being IP and DT. What total numbers would you target for each catagory? I would assume that the numbers i would be trying to reach would be top 3 in each catagory. Would these target numbers be similar to a 12 team roto league?

     Scott

131. By Mike on Mar 22, 2012

     Ray

     Can trade Betencourt 1.00 for eith Jesus Montero 1.00 or Emilo Bonaficio 1.00, Fresse 1.00
     already keeping Prince 29, Dee Gordon 1.00, Napoli 9 ( 2 catcher league) and either League or Santos 1.
     5×5 roto 10 team 14 hitte rs and 9 pitchers with 10 bench spots (330 players)who would you prefer. leaning towards Montero or bonaficio , also league or Santos as a closer.

     Ray, keepers are only for one year. thanks

132. By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2012

     Scott – IP is a HORRIBLE category. I could roll out a staff of Barry Zito’s and Mark Buehrle’s and likely finish with more IP than Moore/Strasburg. Just makes no sense. Forgive me, but what the heck is DT?

133. By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2012

     Mike- Montero is a great bargain at $1, but so is Betancourt. If I had to bet, I’d say that Betancourt offers more return this year. Since you’re already keep Napoli, I wouldn’t have an issue keeping either. You’re only in a 10 team league, so you’re not going to run out of closers or catchers. Take your pick of either guy since you’re also keeping a closer. Go ahead and make move for Montero even though you only get to keep him for one year.

134. By Mike on Mar 22, 2012

     Ok Thanks, at a buck Figured the bat was more reliable with J Montero than the buck closer. You have no love for Bonifacio (3rd, ss,of) at a buck. Think i agree J montero once he gets catcher eligibility is a better value, although not crazy about the ball park he plays in. Thanks, i do like Betencourt but have League and Santos at a buck and really didnt want to keep two closers when i think i can pick up a couple of more at the auction on the cheap

135. By Chris on Mar 22, 2012

     Hi Ray and thanks again for your input, I don’t know how you do it. I wrote earlier about being in a home run only draft, what do you think of Brennan Boesch, do you think he could take his power to the next level?
     Thanks

136. By Scott on Mar 22, 2012

     Ray,

     DT means doubles and triples combined. I dont like the IP catagory either but unfortunatly, thats how the league scoring system is set up. With that being said, i’m just trying to get an idea of what statistical numbers i’m trying to reach per catagory in an 11 team league. Would it be the same as a 12 team league?

137. By Agnes on Mar 24, 2012

     Ray,

     I made a donation for the guide last night and still have not received it. My draft is tomorrow evening. When can I expect to receive it?

     Thanks

138. By Alex on Mar 25, 2012

     Ray,

     I ordered the guide and sent email for the updated rankings last night, and have not received either. Do you know how long it is going to take to receive either? Thanks.

139. By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2012

     Alex – It will be to you shortly. I’ve been away in New York for Tout Wars all weekend.

140. By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2012

     Agnes – The Guide will be on it’s way shortly. I’ve be in NYC for Tout Wars

141. By lou novak on Mar 25, 2012

     how do i contact u about receiveing the guide.
     ordered 1 sat. 3/ 24.

142. By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2012

     Lou Novak – The draft guide has been sent out. Check your SPAM folder. If still not there, send me a copy of your receipt to fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

143. By mike on Mar 26, 2012

     we do a 4×4 NL only
     will you guide work?

144. By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012

     Mike – The rankings in The Guide are 5×5. Not a huge difference for most players, but clearly some would take a substantial shift. Best thing, of the 55 pages about 45 of them talk about players, strategies, how to evaluate players… that stuff would be good for anyone regardless of league style.

145. By JS on Mar 28, 2012

     Ray, I listen to you on XM..great job! I’m looking to do another draft this weekends since I think I might have bombed my other…stacked offensively but lousy SP(Darvish, Latos, Beachy), with Betancourt, Street and Frank Francisco as my only RP…

     U still selling these guides for $8?

     thanks

146. By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2012

     JS – Here is the link to the Draft Guide.

     http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/

147. By Chris on Mar 30, 2012

     I got the draft guide about 10 days ago. Looks great, I’ll be using it at my draft this Sunday. Has there been a recent update?

148. By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2012

     Chris – The Guide is updated every day as needed.

149. By Kevin on Feb 16, 2013

     How much of the guide is related to an auction league?

150. By Ray Flowers on Feb 16, 2013

     Kevin – There are over 600 players ranked for mixed, AL, NL lgs. All with $ figures. 98 percent of the Guide is about player evaluation etc., and that goes with any style of league.