In Blank We Trust?

Should you trust Paul Goldschmidt to produce well enough to be a mixed league starter? Should you trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy? Should you have faith that Jayson Werth will rebound from a down 2011?

D’Backs GM Kevin Towers had this to say about Paul Goldschmidt the young, slugging first baseman who is generating a lot of hype in the fantasy game. “I would be happy if he did what he did last year and nothing more than that. If the power comes, great, but finding a way to get on base, if it is a walk or a base hit, I will take that from him.” Goldschmidt killed it last season blasting 30 homers in just 103 games at Double-A (this a year after he hit 35 homers in 138 games at High-A ball). Obviously, Goldschmidt is a power hitter, so it’s a bit foolish for Towers to have made the statement he did even though I understand he is doing it to keep the expectations in check for the youngster. Paul hit eight homers with 26 RBI in 48 games last season with the Diamondbacks. If he were to keep up that pace in 2012 we’d be looking at a first baseman hitting .250 with 25 homers and 80 RBI. Current ADP numbers show Goldschmidt going off the board 12th at the position, ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez (17th) and Carlos Pena (18th). Given that all three of those players have produced a bunch of seasons of the ilk that we’re postulating with Goldschmidt as a hypothetical outcome for his 2012 effort, are you as surprised as I am to see him being taking 75 picks ahead of a guy like Carlos Pena?

Kelly Clarkson has a great voice. Always love hearing her belt one out.

Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen said that the Fish will monitor the workload of oft injured hurler Josh Johnson. “He will dictate for us what to do,” Guillen said. “What I want him to do is have confidence in us to make sure we know. So he can come to us and say, ‘Listen, I need a day.’ Can I miss a start? I don’t want him to go out there and be a hero…” Guillen then went on to totally contradict himself, hardly a shock, by saying the following. “In my mind, I have this man throwing 200 innings and winning 21 games. That’s in my mind.” Johnson is likely to, at least, be removed early from games in which the Marlins have a lead or are behind, so I have a hard time envisioning that he will make it to 200-innings this season. You don’t have to believe me – just look at his track record. Johnson has pitched 200 innings once in his career and since 2006, his first season as a starter, he has averaged 119 innings a season. To compare, since 2006 Erik Bedard has averaged 112 innings a season. Read that again. The last six years the always injured Bedard is averaging seven less innings a season than Johnson. Are you really still comfortable with depending on Josh Johnson this season?

I was having a debate with a friend the other day. I’m a big fan of plasma televisions since I think they gives a better, more natural color than LCD televisions. Plasma’s also handle motion a bit better and they are better with dark colors (i.e. black levels), so it’s a slam dunk that plasma is better LCD in my mind. That will end your brief foray into geek talk. Wait… maybe all my talk is actually geek talk? Is fantasy baseball really any less geeky? Could it be possible that I’m that guy, the one who can’t relate to people because he is playing with his Han Solo and Chewbacca action figures? Nah, can’t be me.

How bad was Jayson Werth last year? In a season of at least 300 at-bats he posted his worst batting average (.232), OBP (.330) and his second worst SLG mark (.389 – it was .374 back in 2005). As a result Werth, who had posted an OPS of at least .850 for 4-straight years, saw that number dip to .718 last season. Awful. At the same time he still hit 20 homers and and stole 19 bases. Do you know how many outfielders matched those totals last year? The answer is just 11. Moreover, the last four seasons Werth has produced an average of 27 homers and 18 steals. He’s on my list of guys you’ll want to target in 2012.

If you’re looking to play fantasy baseball, sign up with Yahoo Sports.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Stanton

Ask anyone and they will tell you that Mike Stanton is a future star in this game. The owner of prodigious power, no park in the land can contain the ferocity with which Stanton sends balls into orbit. Because of his almost unparallelled ability to drive the ball into the cheap seats, Stanton’s value in the fantasy game continues to grow. Take a look over at MockDraftCentral and you’ll find that Stanton’s Average Draft Position is inside the top-25 (24.4 actually). Two questions come to my mind when I see that. (1) Can Stanton live up to those expectations? (2) How can Stanton possibly live up to those expectations? I know those are in effect the same question, I’m just trying to make a point — I think it’s going to be pretty darn difficult for Stanton to be as productive in 2012 as people expect him to be based on where he is being drafted. Before I get to that line of thought, he’s a quick run down of Stanton’s skill set.

Stanton has only 875 big league at-bats in his young career so that makes prognostication somewhat more difficult than normal. The guy has one season of 375 at-bats, so the old sample size question can be rightly brought up here as an uncertainty.

Stanton has hit .259 and .262 in his two big league seasons. In those two years he has hit .261, just every so slightly above the big league average of .256. Can he produce a better batting average than that moving forward? On a positive note he did boost his walk rate by three percent while cutting his strikeout rate by 3.5 percent in his second season. However, his BB/K mark was slightly below the league average at 0.42, and he still struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats (27.6 percent to be precise). That doesn’t sound like a guy who is primed for a batting average increase. Stanton also owns a mere 16.4 percent line drive rate in his career (16.5 and 16.3 percent the last two years). While he should be able to maintain his average given the homers he will hit that don’t count in this measure but lead to hits, it is somewhat concerning that Stanton is pretty far removed from the 19-20 percent big league average.

Stanton is all about the power which he has flashed since day one. However, and yes there actually is a ‘however’ when talking about his power, I have one small concern with Stanton. Much like Ryan Howard, another prodigious power bat, Stanton doesn’t hit as many fly balls as you think. In fact, Stanton’s career fly ball rate of 39.3 percent is only about two percent above the league average. He really doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. As a result, the only way he is going to blast 40+ homers is going to be if he converts a large percentage of those fly balls into home runs. Stanton has done that the last two years with an impressive 24.0 percent HR/F rate, and last year his 24.8 percent HR/F rate was the highest mark in baseball (to compare, the average big league posts a mark of about 10 percent, and even a huge power bat like Albert Pujols had only an 18.3 percent mark last season). Maybe Stanton can lead the league in this category year after year, it’s certainly possible. All I’m saying is that he’s going to have to be near the top of the leader board in HR/F ratio if he wants to hit 40 homers if he doesn’t hit more balls into the air.

Finally, an athletic 6’5”, Stanton has stolen five bases in each of his big league seasons but he’s just not going to run very much – it’s not his game.

So what do we have in Stanton?

(1) We had an hitter who strikes out far too much.

(2) We have a hitter who profiles as a league average contributor in batting average.

(3) We have a hitter with elite power, though one who struggles to hit a lot of fly balls.

(4) We have a player who is unlikely to steal many bases.

Does that sound like a top-25 fantasy player to you?

Let me ask you this – would you be happy if Stanton hit .264 with 40 homers, 106 RBI and 101 runs scored in 2012? You had better say yes because all four of those numbers would be career bests for Stanton. You know who put up those exact numbers in 2007? Try Adam Dunn. Did anyone, EVER, look at Dunn and think he was a top-25 fantasy performer? Anyone? Of course you didn’t. What if Stanton hit .248 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 90 runs scored in 2012? That would also be considered a career best effort for Stanton so you would have to be please wouldn’t you? Mark Teixeira did that last season and he’s being drafted after Stanton (Tex has a 27.8 ADP). Would you really rather have Stanton over a guy like Teixeira who has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI each of the past eight years given that Tex is also in a great offensive ball yard in a potent offense with the Yankees?

If Stanton improves across the board and has a rather impressive third season, something like either the Dunn or Teixeira campaign’s I mentioned above, he’s still not likely to live up to his top-25 billing. He offers little on the bases to augment his value, and that league average batting mark isn’t going to do him any favors either. I’m not saying to avoid Stanton or that he will fail. I’m merely pointing out that the hope of a huge power season might be causing people to draft Stanton at a point where he can’t possibly live up to expectations.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth enjoyed his greatest success with the Pirates. Therefore, it only seems logical that he chose to return to Pittsburgh to try and rediscover his his lost game. The club and player agreed on a one year deal for $1.75 million, with $450K in incentives also available, in a low risk move for the Pirates. Can McLouth reward that faith, return to prominence with the Pirates, and once again be a solid outfield option in the fantasy game?

In 2008 McLouth was one of the surprise stories of the year on his way to being an elite outfield option in the fantasy game. Nate hit decent .267, but it was his other numbers that stood out. McLouth hit 26 homers and stole 23 bases to pull off the old 20/20 trick, and he also knocked in 94 runs and score 113 times. It was a stupendous fantasy effort.

For a follow up in 2009 Nate saw all his numbers drop, but he was still a solid fantasy contributor. Splitting the year between the Pirates and the Braves, McLouth hit .256, socked 20 homers, stole 19 bases, drove in 70 runs and scored 86 times. One steal from a 2nd straight 20/20, McLouth was the only  outfielder in baseball to hit 20 homers, steal 15 bases, knock in 70 runs and score 85 times in both 2008 and 2009. I told you he was an impressive fantasy play.

Then things went horribly wrong. Seemingly never fully healthy in his two seasons in Atlanta, he even had a stretch in the minor leagues to try and find his lost game, McLouth appeared in only 166 games. In those 509 at-bats he hit a sickly .210 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 66 runs and 11 steals. I told you it was awful didn’t I?

So what went wrong? First, and most obvious, is the fact that Nate struggled with injuries. There’s nothing you can do if you are hurt. Is this a trend that will continue moving forward for Nate? It’s possible especially when you factor in that he plays the game very hard, but he’s also only 30 years old and that isn’t exactly an age that sends up red flags.

Performance is another issue to consider. McLouth posted a some awful numbers the last two years including a BABIP in the .220′s both times. Given that he owns a .276 career mark, and never failed to post a mark of at least .271 over his five big league seasons, a batting average rebound seems likely in 2012. He also posted the best BB/K mark of his career, 0.85, in 2011. That’s another good sign. It also makes sense that a fella who owns a 10.1 HR/F ratio for his career would see a regression to the mean after posting marks of 7.5 and 5.3 percent the past two years. At the same time, it’s not like you can just ignore the past two seasons when his skills seemingly eroded.

Will McLouth get a chance to play everyday? That’s a good question. At this point the Pirates have burgeoning superstar Andrew McCutchen who will obviously be in the lineup every day, and the team is fully committed to giving Jose Tabata a chance to fulfill his potential. That being the case, McLouth will have to battle with Alex Presley for playing time in the outfield (Presley would seem to have the lead in the battle), and that situation could get even more crowded if the team brings back Derrek Lee or signs someone else to play first base which would likely force Garrett Jones into the outfield mix (as you can tell from looking over at Fleaflicker, there is no love right now for McLouth). If McLouth plays everyday I think he makes a solid buy low option late in a mixed league draft, but with the Pirates crowded outfield situation at the moment McLouth is looking like a depth option in the outfield in NL-only leagues until the playing time issues work themselves out.

Looking to sign up for fantasy baseball this season? If so, try out Yahoo.com. If you sign up through this LINK, you’ll also be helping out BaseballGuys.com.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Pitching Early?

Can you win in fantasy baseball if you go pitcher heavy early? On The Fantasy Beat – hosted by Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray – the question is explored.

Listen to the Audio.

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.

In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.

Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.

Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.

Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.

Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.

Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.

Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.

Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.

Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.

Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.

Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.

Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.

Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.

Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.

Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.

My Squad.

C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco

Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson

I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.

Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Suspension Overturned

 This is the official release from Major League Baseball in regards to the 50-game suspension that was given to Ryan Braun which has been overturned – i.e. Braun will not serve a single game of the 50 game suspension that was originally handed down.

Milwaukee Brewers OF and NL MVP Ryan Braun has won his appeal and won’t be suspended. 

MLB issued this statement disagreeing with the decision made by the arbitrator:

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL STATEMENT

          Major League Baseball Executive Vice President for Labor Relations Rob Manfred issued the following statement today:

          “Major League Baseball considers the obligations of the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program essential to the integrity of our game, our Clubs and all of the players who take the field.  It has always been Major League Baseball’s position that no matter who tests positive, we will exhaust all avenues in pursuit of the appropriate discipline.  We have been true to that position in every instance, because baseball fans deserve nothing less.

“As a part of our drug testing program, the Commissioner’s Office and the Players Association agreed to a neutral third party review for instances that are under dispute.  While we have always respected that process, Major League Baseball vehemently disagrees with the decision rendered today by arbitrator Shyam Das.”

Here is a link to a report about the whole situation at ESPN.

FANTASY TAKE

With the removal of the specter of suspension, Braun leaps up draftboards. After his effort last season, and the last few years for that matter, I don’t see how anyone can look at Braun and not think he deserves to be a top-5 overall option. I believe he’s a top-2 option along with Matt Kemp, and I’m in favor of Braun going first off the board.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: Group Think

Thinking for yourself is always dangerous. People are nervous about being wrong. It’s pretty much human nature to want to follow versus lead, and nowhere is that more evident than in yearly Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers. Player X is hot so he moves up the ADP rankings. People then, thinking they are missing out on something, continue to support Player X. Relatively quickly that elevated ranking becomes a self perpetuating ranking that people eventually accept as fact. Should things be that way? Sometimes yes, but often times no. Some thoughts on the value of ADP follow.

ADP numbers are different depending on your source so make sure you use a reputable one. However, even if you use MockDraftCentral, the best source for the material in my opinion, there are a few substantial limitations.

First, who is doing these mock drafts that are leading to the ADP numbers? Are those doing the mocks experienced fantasy players or are they people that have just taken up the game? You might say ‘why does it matter?’ There’s a major reason why it does matter. An experienced fantasy player understands how a draft works, the ebb and flow of it, and how to target players etc. An inexperienced player will likely do what seems like a smart thing – they will follow a sites ADP list with the thinking being that if they aren’t sure about how to do something why not follow the recommendations provided by an ADP list? Therefore, inexperienced people are likely to perpetuate the current ADP rankings because they are more likely to closely follow the ADP lists, especially if their knowledge base isn’t substantial.

Second, is the draft filled entirely with actual people, or, is part of the draft being run by automatized managers? Obviously if there are eight live managers and four auto pick teams in your draft the ADP numbers will be skewed because the computer will pick exactly according to the ADP list that the site puts out further perpetuating the ADP rankings.

Third, even if there are real people doing the draft, are they going to draft an entire 30 man roster, or, as is more likely the case, will they draft the first 15 or 20 rounds before being pulled away from the draft to do something else? When this happens the selection of players in the later rounds will revert to auto-pick further perpetuating ADP numbers.

Fourth, what if someone is trying a “strategy” just to see how it will work out? I personally did exactly that a week or so ago when I drafted five outfielders in my first five picks and didn’t take my first pitcher until round 14. I wanted to see how my team would do if I waited to target pitching. I like how the team turn out but I would never do something so drastic if it was for an actual league. Clearly my “strategy draft” might skew the ADP rankings. It might not really matter if there are hundreds of drafts feeding into ADP, but I can’t be the only person who is experimenting during mock drafts lending yet another caution to the thought that you can use ADP as if it was gospel.

Finally, what about this thought. The folks over at Baseball HQ put out a study that showed the following: over the past eight years only 37 percent of the players selected in the first round of a draft returned first round value that year. In essence, almost two-thirds of the players selected in the first around according to ADP failed to live up to that level of expectation. Obviously that means that there is no answer to who the best choices are as the simply fact of the matter is that at least half of all of the players that we think will be first round performers fail to live up to that billing. The point being, that just cause someone is listed at #27 on the ADP chart doesn’t preclude him from being a top-5 overall performer. In fact, you have just as good a chance of your second round pick performing like a first rounder as your first rounder has of performing like a first rounder. To sum it up, ADP numbers simply aren’t infallible.

So the next time you’re doing a draft, don’t be slavishly tied to some ADP list. Not only are their some problems with how ADP numbers are put together, but you also have to consider the fact that we simply cannot predict with a high level of certitude who will be what in the coming campaign.

* Note: Here’s Lawr Michael’s take on ADP and how you should use/view those numbers.

By Ray Flowers

The Old, The Young and The Pretty

Chris Carpenter was traded. Tommy Hanson has a concussion. Matt Moore won’t have an innings pitched limit. The Dodgers named their closer, an it’s not who you think. Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Katharine McPhee is… well you have to keep reading for that.

RHP Chris Carpenter was traded to the Red Sox today. I know, crazy isn’t it? Oh wait, we’re talking about the 26 year old former Cub, not the Cy Young winning Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. How made are you at me right now?

Tommy Hanson, who is attempting to return from shoulder woes, has reworked his mechanics to take better advantage of his lower half (i.e. his legs). While that sounds like a good thing, mechanical alterations for pitcher’s always make me a bit nervous. Now we get word that Hanson was involved in a car accident yesterday and that he received a Grade 1 concussion that will likely preclude him from doing anything for a few days. I know it’s early, but are you getting the unsettling feeling that things may not go Hanson’s way this year?

Raul Ibanez signed a one year deal for $1.1 million to join the Yankees. The 39 year old Ibanez is nothing more than an AL-only play at this stage of his career. The expectation at this point is that he will form a solid DH duo with Andruw Jones. If we combine the 2011 production of Jones against lefties and Ibanez against righties the result would be a “player” who produced the following 5×5 line: .263-24-85-36-2. The homer and RBI production is solid, but what is it with these guys aversion to crossing home plate?

Ever do situps first thing in the morning? I tried it today, an I gotta tell ya, not a huge fan. Of course, I have to keep the temple that is my body in shape, so I did it anyway while reading the newspaper (yeah I’m one of those dinosaurs who actually gets a newspaper).

Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times Tuesday that “I’m going into camp thinking Javy Guerra is the guy.” Of course he meant the 9th inning arm for the Dodgers. I know that Kenley Jansen has a huge arm, and I’m a big proponent of the record setting fireballer (see the October 6th Around the Horn), but Guerra did stabilize a Dodgers’ bullpen that was a disaster last year and in the process he only blew two of 23 save chances. With the announcement today I wonder if people will change their drafting strategy since Jansen’s ADP is 176, roughly 60 picks ahead of Guerra (233) – numbers are from MockDraftCentral.

Big news out of the Rays camp Tuesday is that the club will not have an innings pitched limit for phenom Matt Moore. Executive VP Andrew Friedman said that the arm of Moore has been “built up in a pretty systematic way” which would seem to signal that he could be allowed to toss 200-innings this year. The Rays have certainly shown the ability to develop pitching over the years so I’m inclined to trust them here. If Moore does throw 200 innings he’ll finish the year as a top-10 AL strikeout arm who could live up the billing that has his current ADP sitting at 102.4.

Manny Ramirez will arrive at Athletics camp on Friday. He’ll make $306,000 on his pro-rated contract which tells you that he really is intent on returning to the game because a guy who has made nearly $207 million in his career certainly doesn’t need a few more bucks. He’s an AL-only grab, but he did hit .298 with a .870 OPS in 90 games in 2010 so he might be worth a reserve round add.

I admit it, I’ve watched the first two episodes of Smash (albeit with the controller in my hand to fast forward the slow parts). I know that Katharine McPhee never really made it as a singer, but something about her persona on screen is certainly enticing.

Johan Santana is throwing without pain, an everyone is getting excited. Let me say it again – don’t be one of that group.  He’s coming back off major shoulder surgery and his performance has dipped year over year the past few seasons. Let him be a headache for someone else.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: A.J. Burnett

The Yankees and the Pirates worked out a deal that sends the hard throwing A.J. Burnett to the Pirates in exchange for Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones (neither is a top prospect). The Pirates also received $18 million from the Yanks to help offset the $31 million that Burnett is due to the next two seasons. Just what type of arm did the Pirates roster for the sum of $6.5 million the next two years?

Burnett’s big ticket item in the fantasy game are the punchouts. You may not have realized it, but A.J. struck out 173 batters last season, one fewer than Max Scherzer, the same total as Michael Pineda, four more than Daniel Hudson and seven more than Wandy Rodriguez. Moreover, the past five years Burnett has struck out 920 batters which just so happens to be the 10th best mark in baseball. It’s also heartening to see that he pushed his K/9 mark back over eight last season after seeing it dip to 6.99 in 2010. He isn’t likely to strike out 200 in the coming campaign, but he could easily post another season of 170 (don’t overlook the fact that he will face pitchers instead of the DH).

All those K’s bring up another point with Burnett. Though he’s long been thought of as an injury risk, and rightly so mind you, he’s actually been pretty darn healthy the past four years never failing to hurl at least 185 innings. His total of 805.1 innings the past four years is 22nd in baseball, ahead of guys like Matt Garza (790.1), Gavin Floyd (780.1), John Danks (778.2), Chad Billingsley (776.2) and Ted Lilly (768). It seems like you can safely roster Burnett expecting him to make 30 starts covering 180 innings, and that stability might help you sleep a bit better at night.

Now Burnett has his fault, and this piece isn’t going to be written with rose colored glasses. He still walks too many batters, last year he issued 3.92 walks per nine innings slightly above his 3.79 career mark, but that’s well within the random variation level of acceptance (even if the number is elevated when compared to the big league average). Something he has not been able to get a handle on though is the long ball. The past three years he’s had a HR/9 mark of at least 1.09 including last years mark of 1.47, a career worst (you can at least partly blame a massive 17.0 percent HR/F rate that was well above his 11.3 career mark). This is an area where he could see some improvement. In 2011 Yankee Stadium was 26 percent above the average AL park in terms of allowing home runs according to Park Indices. His new home in Pittsburgh was 19 below the NL average according to Park Indices clearly pointing to the fact that he might be able to see a fair amount of decrease in his homer rate.

Burnett posted a 49.2 percent ground ball rate last year, and that was a four year best. If he can hold on to that number in 2012, while seeing a slight reduction in his HR/9 mark (the park alone should supply that), he could be in line for a significant improvement in his ERA (his xFIP last year, which is the rate normalized to a league average HR rate, showed a three year best at 3.86. How differently would you be looking at him right now if his ERA was 3.86 versus his actual mark of 5.15?).

Here are the facts as I see them.

Burnett has thrown at least 185 innings each of the past four years.
His strikeout total the last five years is the 10th best in baseball.
In 2011 his K/9 and BB/9 rates were smack on his career marks.
His left on base percentage was 70.0 percent (career 71.4).
His GB/FB ratio was 1.52 (career 1.50).
His line drive rate was 18.5 percent (career 18.4).

I don’t know about you, but that certainly doesn’t sound like a guy who should have had a 5.15 ERA. In fact, it sounds much more like the guy who owns a career mark of 4.10. Bid accordingly on draft day 0 i.e. think of the 2009 version (13-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 195 Ks) – as Burnett is likely to offer a solid return on investment because you will likely be able to add him for relative peanuts when others at the draft are starting to swig their beer and make plans to hit the bar scene (to see how little love that Burnett is getting, take a look at Fleaflicker).

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers