Comments: Greatest Hits
February 1st, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
At the bottom of all my articles readers are encouraged to leave their thoughts on my work, to ask questions, or just to blow off some steam. I have to admit that there are some pretty good queries thrown up there at times. Today, I’ve compiled some of those thoughts into an article since I doubt most of you spend much time reading my responses unless they are to your own questions.
Jake – Is there any sort of format that you might suggest that combines a season long roto format along with some type of playoff at the end of the season?
BBGuys - Your issue of people stopping to care late in the year is common. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer on how to stop this. Reason being is this – playoffs take skill out of the mix and go more with luck. Do you want to give someone a “win” in a playoff week because they picked up Brandon Crawford and he had a better week than Troy Tulowitzki? Do you want to reward a 2-start James McDonald over a one start Roy Halladay? When you break the game down into playoff segments the sample size shrinks, and with it the luck factor goes up. To me, we are best served rewarding year long excellence versus weekly luck.
Mike – As much as I love Evan Longoria this year, were you tempted with Jacoby Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.
*** This questions refers to The FSTA Draft that was held in Vegas during which I chose Longoria #10 overall instead of Ellsbury. Over at Fleaflicker they also have Longoria going off the board after Ellsbury.
BBGuys - Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them. Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. That’s a big concern for me. Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like the one he showed last season. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17 percent HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that persuasively, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.
Marc in CO – In addition to waiting on a 1B, you also waited to pick a SS (Yunel Escobar in the 13th). Can you give us your thoughts on him in specific and the shortstop position in general in terms of draft strategy?
BBGuys - I waited on the shortstop because that’s how the draft played out. Also, since I had two second basemen, I didn’t need to worry about my MI spot, so it was as much a combination of factors as anything else. As for Escobar, I like what he brings. Not much upside power wise, he hits everything into the ground, an obviously he’s not a speed demon, but his skill set is stable. Take out 2010 and you have three nearly identical seasons in 2008-09, 2011. I’ll take .290-10-60-75-5 from my SS and be pretty happy with it since in reality he is my MI behind Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia.
Rick – Are you worried about the suspension of Ryan Braun? Do you think it will be the same old same old when he returns? Also now that this is out here are you worried that his numbers will fall off a cliff like Arod?
BBGuys – I’m not worried about Braun at all. Just expect 2/3 of his normal production for 2012 and you should be fine (just check out his rookie numbers to see how amazing he can be in limited playing time). MLB has done testing for years, so clearly we have to assume that Braun hasn’t been doing something illegal for a long time. In fact, I’m still not convinced that he took “steroids.” Regardless, Braun is 28 this year – still very young. Arod is 36. Arod’s decline had nothing to do with getting of the juice, he was simply experience a slow down with age. Remember, Arod had 54 homers, 156 RBIs and a 1.067 OPS in 2007 – he used steroids in 2001-03.
Wesley – Hey Ray. What do you think of Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez? I feel they’re going to be good values and bounce back guys.
BBGuys - Two different stories. CarGo hit .295, went 20/20, and scored/knocked in 90 runs last year. There’s not much to “bounce back” from there. If he had played another 20 games we’d be talking about a .300-30-100-100-20 season. Expecting more than that is asking too much.
Crawford on the other hand is a prime bounce back candidate. according to Fleaflicker’s numbers, Crawford is being drafted inside the top-70 overall.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez, Comments, Evan Longoria, H2H, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mailbag, Roto, Ryan Braun, Yunel Escobar
By Drbnorce on Feb 1, 2012
Ray, thank u for taking my question. does it seem reasonable to pass on guys like lester and haren and take Madison Bum. do to his age and upside? he produced similar #s last year or would u go with the steady stand bys? ty in adavnce
By Scott on Feb 1, 2012
Ray, I appreciate your insight. Im in a 12 team keeper league. We keep 10 guys(no salary cap or round penalty). We throw 7 pitchers a week and have a offensive flex position. Im keeping the following: Cano, longoria,tulo,kemp,j.upton,granderson, Ian Kennedy,Shields,and Cole Hammels.
For my final keeper spot would you keep Matt Holliday , Gio Gonzalez or Matt Latos ?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 1, 2012
Scott – Give me Mr. Reliable. Matt Holliday. I’d keep him over at least three of your other options, so he’s a the call here for me. I’d actually keep Latos over Kennedy too.
By Randy on Feb 2, 2012
My “inside source” tells me Braun may NOT get suspended, and it is indeed a special circumstance re: his + test (it wasn’t steroids). Let’s just put it this way, Ryan Braun is about to be embarrassed on a national level.
You heard it here first folks.
By Jason on Feb 3, 2012
I’ve read a few articles reporting something similar, but none of then are your usual “credible sources”.
Personally i hope your right. Not just because i have him as a potential keeper…:) but because he comes across as a guy that’s easy to like and root for.
Ray, do you think he actually has a shot to beat this?
By JC on Feb 5, 2012
Ray, I caught the back half of a segment from The Drive the other night where you mentioned a good benchmark for WHIP is around 1.27. Any other target numbers to look for in categories to ensure I’m getting players who evenly help out across the board? Offensively, how about targets for runs, hits, RBI, HR, total bases and OPS. Pitching wise, how about wins, ERA, quality starts and innings pitched. Any help would be great. Love the guide by the way, an absolute steal for 8 bucks.Thanks…JC (3delta1@gmail.com)
By Ray Flowers on Feb 6, 2012
JC – Category target very based on type of league (i.e. size and rules), but for a standard 5×5, something like this:
100 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP , 1250 Ks, 100 saves
.270-260-1000-1050-120 categories
By itsvon on Feb 6, 2012
Ray, in a H2H league, would you rank a player like Braun higher? It seems if you can “weather the storm” for the first 1/3 of the season he is someone that would be extremely valuable to have for a playoff team.
Also, we are 6 days away from Jaroslav Halak shutting out the Sharks.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 6, 2012
Itsvon – Yes, Braun has more value in H2H leagues than standard roto setups. You should move him up a few slots in leagues that are h2h. Yet another reason why h2h is bad for fantasy baseball.
Halak only gets a shutout every other game, so the Sharks should be safe. j/k
By friendtoall on Feb 7, 2012
I like your radio show and agree that fantasy baseball is the fantasy sport of kings but your argument for roto over H2H leaves me puzzled…
There is the above Braun comment and in a mailbag from last September you argue that, “If you’re looking for the fantasy game to somewhat approximate the on field product, then the fantasy game should operate as a mirror image of that actual game.”
Roto in NO WAY approximates the on field product.
If real baseball simply added up scores like roto, the Redsox would be World Series Champions because they led the league with 875 runs scored. The Cardinals late season heroics would be moot. H2H approximates the on field product here, not roto.
And later you comment on trading in the FSTA league by saying, “Honestly, non-trading leagues are often better because they eliminate someone making a nonsensical trade.”
Real teams make real nonsensical trades ALL THE TIME!!!
Your comments consistently demonstrate no desire whatsoever to mirror the on field product and your arguments argue nothing but personal preference. Opinions are like Engels and everybody has one–you just like roto better than you like H2H.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2012
Friendtoall – Thanks for the response, though I would disagree with your two main positions.
H2H – my argument is laid out in more detail here: http://baseballguys.com/2011/09/21/mailbag-september-21-2011/
I’d suggest you give that a look for a more nuanced argument as to why roto is better than H2H.
Second, the non-trading thing removes collusion or stupidity. It may not be a mirror image of the real world where teams make bad moves all the time, I will cede the point to you, but in terms of providing a better fantasy product the no-trade leagues are more equitable. There is always someone who will deal a .220 in April hitting Adam Jones for a .350 April hitting Andres Torres. In the end the deal ends up being a terrible one for the guy giving up Jones, and that deal helps to knock off kilter the competitive balance in the league. I’m not saying no-trade leagues are as fun, it just removes some of the fudge factor.
By friendtoall on Feb 7, 2012
I read that article– your first point was the whole “should operate as a mirror image of the actual game” theory—which, yeah, the fantasy playoffs happen during the regular season but they are still more of a mirror than the count up the totals model of roto. I don’t think that a fantasy game needs to mirror the actual game—that’s your theory. But your examples don’t seem to support that idea.
Your second point about Pujols… real players have real slumps and real players will sometimes help a team one week and hurt a team the next. So H2H, again, mirrors real baseball better than roto. And your point about Pujols being a H2H killer was weird. Were you taking about the theoretical Pujols who alternates great week/poor week or the real deal?
And things like balancing two start pitchers against ERA or WHIP against counting stats like K and W is an art, a game within a game.
In the end I play both, enjoy both. Roto is fun but if you fall behind it’s so over…making a run in the playoffs as a low seed in a H2H league is a joy. Most of my leagues split the prize between the regular season champ and the playoff champ, so it’s not like consistency isn’t rewarded.
Re: trades
trades make the world go round. As long as owners pay their dues I am cool to let them do what they need to do. It’s their team. And any good league will have a veto system to prevent collusion. So if we get you on The League, you would ban Taco? Fudge tastes good!
By friendtoall on Feb 7, 2012
In the end we prob just need to disagree here…
Keep up the good work just don’t get me started on your (pre-PED) Kemp was a better MVP than Braun argument…
By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2012
Friendtoall – We will have to agree to disagree like you said. We’ve got fantasy football if you want to play H2H. Baseball isn’t setup to play that way, and my feeling is that since the game is 162 games long, let’s not make it like football and only count 26 segments. The whole beauty of baseball is that it’s so long, and when you go H2H you rob the game of one of its defining aspects.
And yes, Taco would be banned, and I’m not starting a bidding war for his truffle.