Player Profile: Fowler vs. Jackson
February 2nd, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
I asked a simple question Wednesday on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page – for 2012, would you rather have Austin Jackson or Dexter Fowler. To my surprise the answer was Jackson with about 70 percent of the vote. Am I in the wrong in thinking that Fowler will be the better fantasy performer in 2012 (you can find my rankings of both outfielders in the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide)? Here are my thoughts on this battle royale.
2011 fantasy stats:
Fowler: .266-5-45-84-12 in 481 at-bats
Jackson: .249-10-45-90-22 in 591 at-bats
If we allow Fowler another 110 at-bats to match Jackson’s total, an assume he would continue to perform at the same rate he flashed over 481 at-bats, his line would end up being .266-6-55-103-15. All of a sudden that gap between the two shrinks, it not disappears, does it not? Moreover, by “non-fantasy measures,” Fowler was easily the better performer last season.
Fowler had a .363 OBP, .432 SLG and .796 OPS
Jackson had a .317 OBP, .374 SLG and .690 OPS
So can you see why I was so shocked that Jackson, resoundingly, was the choice amongst my Twitter followers. Fowler bettered Jackson last year in the following categories: doubles, triples, walks, AVG/OBP/SLG. Fowler also tied Jackson in RBI and scored just six fewer runs in 28 fewer games played. So tell me folks, what is the big draw with Jackson? I bet it has more to do with his team than it does with Jackson.
The Tigers will boast the top power hitting duo in baseball in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I don’t think anyone is going to dispute that fact. If those two guys do their normal thing in the #3 and #4 slots in the lineup, whoever on the Tigers is asked to fill the leadoff role and hit in the second hole are bound to score a ton of runs. That’s sound reasoning. It’s also a pretty strong bet that Jackson will hit atop the Tigers’ order, not because he should hit there mind you, but because they don’t really have a better option (their entire starting lineup may not steal more bases than Michael Bourn). Keep this in mind. Jackson is a strikeout machine. You can live with that when a guy is hitting 30 homers, but when he’s batting at the top of the order and has 14 homers in his career that guy shouldn’t be striking out in more than a quarter of all of his at-bats. Due mostly to that K-rate, Jackson will have a very difficult time reaching the .293 batting average he posted in 2010 (that mark was almost entirely the result of his major league leading, an unsustainable, .396 BABIP. Predictably that mark regressed to .340 last season and with it his batting average receded). Not only does the fact that he may struggle to hit .271, his career average, weigh Jackson down, you should also pay attention to what it does to his ability to get on base. Through two seasons Jackson has n OBP of .331 a mere five points above the big league average of .326. Simply put, Jackson doesn’t have the skills to hit at the top of anyone’s batting order.
On the other hand, Fowler does possess the skills to bat leadoff. Not only does he have a substantially better OBP (career .355), Fowler also has ample speed (even though he swiped only 25 bags the last two years he stole 27 bases in 2009). Fowler also showed marked improvement in the second half last season after his demotion to the minors as he hit .288 with a .880 OPS over his last 68 games. Jackson will never post an .880 OPS. Fowler also got on base at a .381 clip in the second half leading to 51 runs scored over 68 games. Add in that he’s in the best shape of his life after training this offseason with Jason Giambi and Troy Tulowitzki, an I’m certainly taking Dexter Fowler over Austin Jackson on draft day.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Austin Jackson, Dexter Fowler, Rockies, Tigers
By MascotDB on Feb 2, 2012
Yeah, that surprised me too. Fowler’s OBP was surprising to me, he’s definitely a sleeper for me. Austin Jackson had the unsustainable BABIP in 2010, and I’d rather hit in Coors than Comerica. It’s Fowler easily.
By Kelly on Feb 3, 2012
I completely agree that Fowler should be the choice. However, unlike Jackson, Dextor Fowler might have competition if he does not perform well.
How much do the Rockies like Eric Young Jr. or even Charlie Blackmon? Enough to have traded away Seth Smith.
Those concerns do not outweigh the significant difference between Jackson and Fowler.
By Stan on Feb 5, 2012
Good article, agree 100%. Last poster does make a good point. How do you compare Fowler to Maybin?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 5, 2012
Stan – Maybin and Fowler are close in terms of fantasy value. Maybin has obvious wheels upside, but also not as good an overall game as Fowler. Likely Fowler will come much cheaper as well. For more of my thoughts –
http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/
By justin on Mar 21, 2012
great article per usual.
with this info detroit would be wise to consider a jackson/castellanos for bourn trade this summer.
with good health and seth smith out of the picture can i expect 575-600 AB’s from fowler this season? gotta love the value in spite of his confounding success rate on the basepaths.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Justin – Justin. I see no reason why the Rockies won’t turn Fowler loose and let him play everyday. He should finally get that chance, barring a really slow start to the season of course. It’s time for the Rockies to take the training wheels off.
By Ryan on Mar 21, 2012
Ray,
I was offered Michael Bourn and a 6th rounder for my Curtis Granderson. Im in a 12 team keeper league. I expect a big year from Bourn being in the ATL now. What say you?
-Ryan
By Mike on Mar 21, 2012
Ray- 12 team mixed. I draft in #12 spot. I was looking at Hanley with my first pick for SS/3B? Is that crazy? In some mocks Hanley is gone by then so I’ve been going J Upton or Ellsbury but not sure about them producing last year #’s. Any thoughts on a 1-2 combo?
By Chris on Mar 21, 2012
Hey Ray , great job. I’m in a home run only league, no trades, 12 rounds, 25 teams, so 300 players drafted. I’m hoping you can give me some power sources from players who hit 5 or less hrs last year. Thank you.
By Bobby on Mar 21, 2012
Hello Ray .
i am in a 5×5 10 team roto league. in the 2nd round it looks like Upton, Pedroia, Tex, Granderson are there. I think the top 6 1B will be gone. Please rank the above 4 players . We start 3 ofs and 1 utl.
I also bought your Draft guide .
thank you
By Carl on Mar 21, 2012
Hi Ray,
So based on you write up, you would consider Ichiro a bargain at say…pick 100? Of course it all depends on your team make up, but in general do you think that is good value for him? How high would you go for him if you drafted power early?
Great write up by the way. Your player profiles are awesome.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Ryan – Bourn actually was a better player last year with HOU. He should be fine though in ATL. Expect repeat, at best, of last season. Dont expect better numbers.
What is the 6th rounder… how many keepers? If you keep four guys a 6th rd pick is really the 10th, so it’s not very exciting.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Mike – I’d prefer a guy like Upton/CarGo/Pedroia at #12/13. I haven’t been in a single draft where Upton has made it to #12. HanRam has a couple of questions that lean me slightly away from him – health, head, new position, declining efforts last 2 yrs.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Chris – No idea on this one. Less than 5 HRs is a TINY number. Chris Davis, Alvarez, Moustakas, Morneau, Fowler, Gutierrez, Sweeney, Inge, Sands, Paredes, Seagers, Uribe,
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Bobby – I’ve not seen Upton fall to 10. If he is there, tough to pass.
Upton, Pedroia, Tex, Granderson would be my order since you only start 3 OFs.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Carl – I wouldn’t go too early. I only expect mild improvement. Maybe boost him a round in your rankings?
Thanks for the pat on the back.
By jay on Mar 21, 2012
hey ray listening to the show right now you go man stay strong with your braun convictions my question is this I traded for tulowiskey and gave up uggla and hardy now I need a shortstop for second baseman really deep 16 team league and the only people on the wire are altuve, pennington ,furcall ,cozaar and all the rest of the buried deep shortstop or second baseman any of those peek your interest or do I make another trade
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Jay – I do what I can — stay strong!
If you dealt Tulo for Ugggla/Hardy, why would you need a SS?
If you need to add a SS off your list, Pennington a bit safer than Furcal, but either option would be ok.
By jay on Mar 21, 2012
hey ray thanks man…you must have read it quickly…i traded uggla and hardy and got tulo…so now i need a 2b/ss…yeah i grabbed cozart for now but ive been looking at pennington…thanks bud
By Bobby on Mar 21, 2012
Hello Ray.
I give you Kyle, Kay a ton of credit how many phone calls do you get a day , I have a top 4 pick who should i pick out of Braun, Kemp, Pujols, Cabrera………Your having trouble in the 1st round…. REALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Bobby – I’d like do to even more calls on the show, love that part of the show.
I’d rank the guys like this: Braun, Kemp, Cabrera, Pujols. All great options for you.