Category Targets
February 8th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
If you haven’t heard, I’ve written a 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide that is now available at BaseballGuys.com. If you’re wondering what type of analysis awaits you in the over 50-page Guide, here is an inkling of the type of material you can expect to find there (in addition to the Player Rankings, more than 600 of them actually, that are the heart of The Guide, there are a ton of articles breaking down various aspects of the fantasy game).
People ask me all the time about projections. As I’ve written previously, the best one can hope for with projections is 70 or so percent accuracy. The point being, most projection systems aren’t very good, and in truth, a rolling three year average of numbers is likely to be about as accurate in the long run as any projection system that you use. That’s why I hesitate to give number projections each year (I also hesitate to employ a top-300 list, and you can read more about that at the link). However, there’s no way around it, people love to see “Albert Pujols .315-38-118-112-8” when they go about trying to put together a championship caliber roster, even if the projector has no real way of knowing if his projection will be accurate (think Adam Dunn last year who everyone thought would hit 40 homers with 100 RBI. More on Dunn can be found in his Player Profile).
Nowadays, with the advent of this thing called a computer, and the myriad of software one can use to track a fantasy draft, people often try to reach “category targets” on draft day. What do I mean by that? I mean what numbers, in each of the fantasy categories that your league employs, do you need to attain to win a category? What number do you need to reach a top-3 finish in category? That’s what targeting tries to help you to do – understand the numbers that you need to reach in each category to have a shot at your league championship. Here are the issues with this line of thought.
1- You have to be able to access historical data for your setup. If it’s a standard situation like a 5×5, 12 team league, an I’ll give some numbers for that setup in a minute, you’re in good shape. However, if you’re in a 7×7 league, or a points league, or anything non-traditional, the numbers you will need to target are different, so having access to the league standings for the past few years can help you to gauge where you need to be. The numbers also obviously change if you are in a 10-team league versus a 15-team league.
2- Just because you have the “target numbers” prior to your draft does not mean you’re home free. Again, you have to depend on your projections being accurate, and that’s a whole other level of uncertainty. If you have Pujols projected at 30 homers you might be 10 short of your target when your team is assembled. If you have Pujols at 40 homers in your projections maybe you hit your target number exactly. Will Pujols hit 30 and leave you wanting? Will he hit 40 and give you exactly what you expected? Will he hit 45 homers and exceed your expectations? Remember, your ability to reach your “targets” is completely dependent on the accuracy of your projections.
3- Given my statement at the start of this piece, that projections are only 70 or so percent accurate, you have to be very careful with using targets as your only guide. If you think you need 280 homers to reach your target, and your projections have you at 295 with your assembled team, you clearly don’t need to go looking for homers anymore, right? What if your projections for your hitters though end up being only 75 percent right? That would leave you with around 220 homers, well below your needed target number. And that is my main point here, and why I don’t slavishly use”target” numbers on draft day (in fact, I’m one of a rare breed anymore – I do not use a computer to track numbers on draft day. Maybe I’m missing out, but at the same time my track record is plenty good enough to show that what I’m doing works for me). If you only look at target numbers you may make decisions at the draft table, or on early season waivers, that ultimately hurt your team (maybe you should have been adding power instead of going for speed to hit your targets). As I’ve said before, drafting is much more an art than it is a science.
With that, here are some simple target numbers for 5×5, 12 team leagues.
100 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1250 Ks, 100 saves
.270-260-1000-1050-160
In the end, like any other bit of analysis, “targets” are just part of the puzzle. They can certainly be helpful when you’re trying to get a handle on how your team should perform so there’s no reason to use them, but don’t get so tied into those targets, and your projections, that you make bad decisions on draft day because you are only looking at some predetermined set of numbers.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: 5x5, 5x5 scoring, Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, category targets, projections, Roto leagues, Strategy, targets
By Fish on Feb 8, 2012
Ray,
9 team 23/260 NL only Roto. Why so much love for Starlin Castro? I have him for $5. I can keep him this year for $5 or I can extend him for as many years as I want but I have to bump the salary by $5 per year, effective immediately. I’m in the same boat with David Freese (at $1) and Mike Stanton ($15). I’m positioned to win this year, but I also like to contend every year. Any advice for those guys? My other keepers are Ramos 3, Furcal 1, Bruce 24, Harper@15 (for next year too – keeper?) Kershaw 32, Strasburg 9, Wainwright 8, Madson 10, Wolf 1. On the fence – Marcum 22 (Brewers scare me w/o Fielder and Braun), Lilly 16, Mayberry/Fransisco/Blanks $5 each. We can keep 11. THANKS!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012
Fish – Starlin Castro is a young player coming off two very impressive seasons. Why wouldn’t you love him is the better question? At $5 he is a MUST keep, and will be so for years. Freese at $1, sign me up there as well for years. Stanton at $15… ditto. All three are great guys to build around given the cost.
Marcum – no fielder/braun will have no effect on how Marcum pitches. Remember, you target pitchers for their skills, not for their win potential which we have no way of predicting. $22 is high for him though. Ditto on Lilly. Solid skills, but that’s twice what he should cost. Not a hug fan of any of the three $5 guys who you could likely get for less.
By Adam on Feb 8, 2012
Just got “The Guide” Can’t wait for it to be delivered
By Doug on Feb 8, 2012
Hi Ray,
Great ’12 Draft Guide! I already have a great start for my 10 team roto 5×5 auction league with it. Given above your projections for a 12 team, what can I expect for my 10 team league? And will you be offering up any player projections? I’d like to use past history and multiple website projections to form an avg. target #.
Thanks!
Doug
By Adam on Feb 8, 2012
Hey Ray setting up a Roto league. 30 man roster with 15 positional players 10 pitchers and 5 bench.We use Sp Sp Sp Rp Rp and 5 P
Going to use 6 cats. W K ERA WHIP Saves Holds
What would you put for the minimum and maximum amount for innings pitched. We all agree that we should have some flexibility in terms of how many innings they want to pitch as long as they fall in between the minimum and maximum.
Would 1000 Min 1250 Max be OK. Would love to hear your thoughts
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012
Doug – As I wrote about in the Targets piece that your comment is attached to, I explained why I don’t put out number projections – the best systems are 70-75 percent accurate. That’s really not good enough for me. It’s more important to know who is better than whomever, versus taking a guy because he is projected to hit three more homers than someone else.
As far as the 12 to 10 team question, can you give me a little bit more detail about what you mean?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012
Adam – If doing a league, should be 14 hitters and nine pitchers if you want to go with “standard.” Interested why you added one hitter and one pitcher to what everyone else does?
Why not just do SOLDS instead of saves and holds? There is an article on Solds in the Draft Guide: http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide
Normally, leagues do a minimum of like 750 innings. If you want to set a max to avoid someone streaming all year, and if you are using 10 starting spots, I’d probably go like 1400. That would be 140 innings a slot which isn’t too much.
By Scott on Feb 8, 2012
Hi Ray . Head to head 10 keeper league. No penalty or time restriction for how long you can keep a player.singles 1 pt, doubles 2 pts, steals 2 pts ect. We have to play 7 pitchers, 3 OF and a flex.Im keeping J.upton ,kemp ,granderson, holliday, cano , longo , tulo, hammels , latos , and shields or ian kennedy. would you trade granderson and latos for mig cabrera ? Doing so would mean that I can only keep 9 players instead of 10. Thanks for your insight.
By Doug on Feb 8, 2012
Ray,
In your article, you provided a simple target numbers for a 12 team standard 5×5 roto league with “100 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP , 1250 Ks, 100 saves
.270-260-1000-1050-120 categories”
I was just interested what numbers to ‘shoot for’ in a 10 team 5×5 standard league since I expect these category numbers will only increase since talent will not be as thin as compared to the 12 team league.
Thanks again,
Doug
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012
Doug – The last time I did a 10 team league was about a decade ago. It’s just way too thin. AL leagues should be 12, NL 13, mixed leagues should be at least 12.
As for targets, I honestly don’t know. Here’s a little discussion…
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=322068
By Ray Flowers on Feb 8, 2012
Scott – Tough not to get Cabrera. He’s still very young, and will be in the HOF if he stays healthy. Giving up Granderson and Latos is a big price to pay, but as a 10 tm lg, it’s not prohibitive. Could you maybe get someone else thrown in to help offset your loss of a player?
By Adam on Feb 8, 2012
Ray added the 2 roster spots because the deeper the better. Wanted to make it like real baseball. Where if you make a good FA add it will really help you. I hate playing in leagues that are so shallow that tons of talent is on the waiver wire. Wanted to make it deeper to reward the better managers who do their hw via the draft and free agency
By Joe Suvak on Feb 9, 2012
pumped to get the draft preview ! please get it to me asap ! donation sent !
By Bill Hamilton on Feb 9, 2012
Hi Ray, I’m a long-time CDM Diamond Challenge player. So often in this contest its the cheap players that outperform relative to their salaries that give you a competetive edge. This year I’m looking at Kipnis, Lawrie, Dee Gordon, and De Aza; along with Beachy, Matt More, and Betancourt (COL). Any thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 9, 2012
Joe Suvak – I live on the west coast buddy. It will be to you in a short while. You ordered it at 5:09 AM PST… a guy has to sleep at some point.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 9, 2012
Adam – I get adding roster spots to make the league deeper. It’s a fair compromise if you are unable to add another owner into the mix.
By David Leisure on Feb 9, 2012
Ray,
Thank you for the guide. To anyone interested in a brief objective review of it before buying here it is:
If you are reading this comment on baseballguys.com, you already realize what in depth perspective Ray offers-now it is in a guide.
Being in an auction league myself, the fact that he breaks every position down in auction format is fantastic. Also, with each position, it is broken into tiers, so it is not just that 1 guy is ranked ahead of another-it is that the player fall into a higher or lower tier which once you grasp what tiers mean in fantasy baseball, you understand how awesome such a breakdown is.
Moreover, the guide breaks down various strategies, not just 1 way or the highway.
Ray and I have disagreements over players as does everyone with everyone, but Ray offers this guide at a more than reasonable rate and if you love fantasy baseball, you need to “donate” to the cause.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 9, 2012
Bill Hamilton – I’m not up on the cost of players in CDM, but Id have to think guys like Lawrie, Beachy, Moore have to be pretty darn expensive given how they are going in 5×5 drafts.
Betancourt: http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/27/adp-talk-late-january-pitchers/
All options are solid adds if the price is right.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 9, 2012
David Leisure – Thank you kind sir for your words of encouragement. I’m so pleased that you have found The Guide to be worth purchasing. I also appreciate your breakdown for people who might be considering adding it to their stable of support for attacking the 2012 season. Thanks David.
By John Hall on Feb 10, 2012
Those numbers would have finsihd 6th in my league last year. The pitching target totaled 42 pts but the offense was only 20.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2012
Joh – how many teams are in your league? Again, those are across the board target meaning they would be the floor of what you would want to hit. If you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 mixed league, there’s no way you’d get only 20 points on offense with that. I would have gotten 44.5 points on offense with those numbers in my FSTA Experts League.
By Pablo on Feb 15, 2012
12 team mixed 5×5 with OBP. Positions are standard 9 player offense plus 1 IF and 1 Util. Pitchers are 2 SP, 1 RP, 5 P. 25 draft slots – open bench. Regarding your article on category targets – here are the category winning numbers for the last 3 years in my league (09 thru 11):
Runs 943 912 914 W 86 94 90
HR 251 233 235 SV 148 140 168
RBI 932 852 895 K 1226 1230 1270
SB 205 135 187 ERA 3.34 3.04 2.95
OBP .370 .366 .362 WHIP 1.20 1.18 1.13
If I read this right, in general hitting is getting thinner and pitching is getting stronger. Definitely drives the case to draft hitters early. First time I have looked at this way. Thanks for the article and insight.
Just purchased the guide and looking forward to its arrival!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 15, 2012
Pablo – Glad you enjoyed the piece on category targets. It’s certainly an angle you’ll want to keep an eye on at the draft table.
Hope you enjoy the Guide.
By Ryan on Feb 15, 2012
Ray,
12 team H2H league…got the 4th pick. Who do you take there? I’m leaning Tulowitski or A Gonz since my keepers are all OF except Gordon with 3B eligibility.
Keepers: Stanton, Granderson, A Gordon, Marcum
By Ray Flowers on Feb 15, 2012
Ryan – Without knowing who is available, given your two choices, go with Tulo over AGone.
By Ryan on Feb 15, 2012
My guess is that Pujols and MCab are gone. Bautista is a keeper on another team. Am I missing anyone that should go there?
By Joe on Mar 19, 2012
I’m in a bit of a pickle here; I’m in a keeper league of 10 people. The keepers I have and the rounds I would keep them at are: Starlin Castro (15th round), Albert Pujols (1st round), Joey Votto (4th round) and Carlos Gonzalez (18th round). I can keep three players, I’m thinking I should definitely keep Gonzalez and Votto because of the clear value difference of round they were drafted at and the round I would keep them at, the only problem is, should I give up Pujols for Castro in the 15th and then lose my 1st and 4th round picks? or keep Castro and have most of my top picks? Any suggestions?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2012
Joe – I say you keep Pujols, Votto, CarGo. Castro is a better value than Pujols, but Pujols is still going to be the better overall performer. Plus, it’s not like you are losing anything by keeping him in the first round – he’s a first round pick so you’re fine doing that.