First Base Mediocrity?
February 10th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).
The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.
The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.
The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.
The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.
The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.
You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Carlos Lee, Carlos Pena, Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales, Lance Berkman, Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Howard
By Steve on Feb 10, 2012
How in the world did you not reference Eric Hosmer?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2012
Steve – I left out plenty of guys. I was just giving an overview of the position. Hosmer didn’t fit any of the categories that I mentioned… which one would you have put him in?
By Eric on Feb 10, 2012
Ray,
Once again, great advice as always. I think anyone who is serious about winning their respective baseball pool (regardless of design) should use your 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide as the leading reference above all others.
Wanted to follow up on a request I made with you via Twitter. Trying to find a list of the top switch hitters in 2012 – surprisingly, no one has compiled this list as of yet. Hoping for a competitive advantage with a quick list of 10-20 guys that are strong switch hitters. My goal is to find as much balance as I can, so switch hitters just adds another wrinkle to that perspective.
Thanks,
Eric
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2012
Eric – I don’t think adding switch hitters gives you a real advantage. Usually those guys are weak on one side or the other anyway. I think you should target the best hitters based on their skills, an it really doesn’t matter which side of the dish they swing from. I’m certainly not going to add Chipper Jones over Mark Reynolds because he swings from both sides of the dish. Target the skills the batter has and don’t worry too much about micromanaging a switch hitter.
By Brian from Idaho on Feb 10, 2012
Ray, thanks for the advice on Wieters the other night on xm radio. i agree with everyone else the guide is AWESOME. Is Goldschmidt for real? Do you think he will make enough contact to hit 30 and drive in 90 or is that a pipe dram for this season?
By Brian H on Feb 10, 2012
Where do you think Konerko falls? Was 8th in OPS, played a respectable 149 games last year.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2012
Brian H – You didn’t get a copy of my draft guide eh? You can find my ranking of Konerko there: http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2012
Brian from Idaho – Glad we could help you out on the radio.
Goldschmidt 30 HR, 90 RBI certainly possible. But how many first year players reach those two totals? Yeah, hardly any. I’d be thinking 25-80 if I drafted Goldschmidt this year.
By Vlad from L.A. on Feb 10, 2012
You could probably throw in Moreland in with the “Young and Who Knows” group. Still only 26, will go well after Ike/Goldy in most 12 and 15-team formats and has the potential for fine year-end numbers if he could only figure out lefties.
By BSchlitz on Feb 10, 2012
Hey Ray…love your fantasy drive!!!! I’m in an NL only auction keeper league. I lost Fielder since he signed with the Tigers. We can keep 5. I am keeping Montero, Upton, CYoung, Bruce, and Bumgarner. I am starting with 0 Infielders and those positions are very very thin. I am trying to pick a 1B that might be a little under the radar. What are your thoughts on Duda this year? Will he be a solid option at 1B for an NL only league this season?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 10, 2012
BSchlitz – Glad you enjoy the show on Sirius. It will be back at 5-8 PM EDT, M-F, starting next week.
Fan of Duda. He qualifies at two spots – 1B/OF – and it’s nice to have the depth in NL only. He’s not an elite bat, but he could be a very servicable depth type guy without a doubt. I’d look at him and hope for a .270-20 type of effort. It’s possible.
By Jason on Feb 11, 2012
Ray,
I got a 10-team 6X6 league. We can keep three players for three years. Here’s who I got to choose from:
AGone – $32
Kershaw – $23
Miguel Montero – $6
M. Bourn – $6
R. Weeks – $6
Kimbral – $2
Beltran – $1
Asdrubal – $1
Pineda – $1
Wainwright – $1
As you can see, I got a lot of value here, so who would you recommend keeping? Thanks for all you put up on this site! Love it!
By Alan on Feb 11, 2012
Ray,
I’m setting up a 12 team 5×5 baseball league on yahoo. How do you prefer to set up your roster positions? (3 OF?, 2 Util?, MI?, IF?)
Thanks
By dan on Feb 11, 2012
ray, 12 team mixed 5×5 keeper league. sell my keepers for a run each year. keeping hanson rd 24. need 2 of holland, anibal, cueto, guerra, rds all similar.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 11, 2012
Jason – let’s see about those keepers…
1 Bourn $6
2 Kershaw $23
3 Pineda $1
You could go with Cabrera at third spot – great value. Also could keep AGone if you want to build around him. Not great value, but he’s certainly and elite level bat.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 11, 2012
Alan – If you’re doing a 12 team mixed league, I’d use the roster set up you can find here – it’s the “standard.”
http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/20/part-ii-vegas-baseballguys-fsta-team/
By Ray Flowers on Feb 11, 2012
Dan – Hold on to Anibal Sanchez and Holland. I could see you keeping Cueto, but here are my concerns:
http://baseballguys.com/2011/12/01/player-profile-johnny-cueto/
By Scott on Feb 11, 2012
Encarnacion qualifies at 1b
By Jared on Feb 12, 2012
Ray,
I have a keeper question. 12 team 5×5 auction league, standard setup. I can keep 5 for as long as I want with no inflation.
Eric Hosmer – $1
Brett Lawrie – $1
Brandon Phillips – $17
Clayton Kershaw – $24
Craig Kimbrel – $4
Michael Pineda – $1
Jesus Montero – $2
Miguel Montero – $6
Andrew McCutchen – $24
Mike Trout – $1
Love your show on XM! Glad you are going back to your old time slot.
Thanks,
Jared
By Ray Flowers on Feb 12, 2012
Jared – Glad you love the show, and we are glad to be back at the normal time of 5-8 PM EDT as well.
Keepers
1 Hosmer $1
2 Lawrie $1
3 Trout $1
4 Jesus Montero $2
5 Pineda $1
Love some of your other options but can’t pass up on those values.
By Nick on Feb 13, 2012
Your show and guide are the best out there. Hands down. I listen to the show as often as I can. Can’t wait for baseball to begin.
Quick hoops question: Jeremy Lin or Kyle Lowry?
Thanks. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate your work.
Nick
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012
Nick – Thanks so much for the support my friend. We’re all looking forward to getting baseball season up and running as well. The show on Sirius is now MON-FRI from 5-8 PM EDT — back to our old drive spot!
As for your question, I can’t help ya. Honestly, my brain is full of MLB, NFL and NHL and I just don’t have the time to follow the NBA at anything more than a casual level. Sorry about that.
By rbt on Feb 13, 2012
Pablo Sandoval can outdo Freddie Freeman in the “adding muscle” department…Panda says he added 25 lbs of muscle. This I gotta see.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012
RBT – Pablo Sandoval didn’t gain 25 lbs of muscle according to the report –
https://twitter.com/#!/hankschulman/status/165538910292807680
By Polka on Feb 13, 2012
the Draft Guide is amazing as I’ve told a thousand times, but just have to reiderate that point!!!!
By PW on Feb 14, 2012
Do you know the status of K. Morales? Can he run?
Is he still more of a flyer at this point? Or is going to get 500 ABs this season?
Love the guide!
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
PW – I’m not touching Morales. Reports are that he is improving, moving in the right direction, and they are thinking he will be ready to rock for opening day. At this point he has to prove it to me. Even if he’s healthy, it’s been 1.5 years since he played so he’s bound to be rusty.