Third Base: A Wasteland?
February 13th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.
Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).
Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).
Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).
Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).
All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?
In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99. What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).
That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.
Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.
Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.
Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.
Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.
So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).
You want more love at third?
David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.
Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.
Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.
Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).
I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Brett Lawrie, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Jose Buatista, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Roberts, Ryan Zimmerman, Third Base
By Bobby on Feb 13, 2012
Hello Ray.
Welcome back to the 5est time slot perfect for my hour drive home. i am in a 5×5 10 team roto league. How would you draft BPA, are you a position scarcity guy? i know you hold off on pitching. we also only start 3.. O.F ,and no CI or MI.
THANK YOU
Bobby
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012
Bobby – BPA… who are you referring to?
By Brian from Idaho on Feb 13, 2012
Ray I agree with u that 3b is deeper then most people think. I hope we haven’t seen the best of Panda. I think outfield is weaker then most people think and it gets slim quickly. my question is can guys like Alverez and Ian Stewart give decent #s or just pass completely on them?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012
Brian from Idaho – Alvarez and Stewart should only be drafted late as backups. Both have big time power, but playing time may or may not much to talk about with either. They also have huge holes that lead to those big time whiff totals. I’d have Alvarez ahead of Stewart. He’s younger, was thought of as a can’t miss prospect when drafted as well. Hopefully he can get his career back on track, but it’s make or break time for both this year.
By Kyle from CT on Feb 13, 2012
HI Ray,
I’m in a 10-team Keeper League and I need to pick three of the following four: Tulowitzki, Pedroia, Teixera or Ryan Zimmerman. Your thoughts???
By Ray Flowers on Feb 13, 2012
Kyle from CT – No wrong choice here. Tulo and Pedroia are locks for me, so the final call comes down to Tex and Zimmerman. As I wrote today, I think that 3B is a bit deeper than many think. Therefore, I don’t think you have to keep Zimmerman. I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Tex outpdroduces him this year. However, Tex is four years older, so if you want to keep a guy, and can do so without penalty, going with Zimmerman isn’t a bad idea because his peak should be arriving while Tex is just working through his.
By Jared on Feb 14, 2012
Ray,
I love your draft guide! I have a couple of suggestions for it that I hope you might consider. It would be great if you could add tiers for NL and AL only along with adjusted auction values. Thank you for all the great information you provide on a daily basis!
Jared
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Jared – Did that last year, AL/NL stuff, it’s just a ton of work when you have to do everything by hand (I don’t have an automated system). You could obviously create your own list my removing the guys from the other league. I’m considering, not certain, doing rankings for NL/AL and making those available in like two weeks. Not sure yet…
By Jeff on Feb 14, 2012
Ray,
If you do NL ONLY…..I’m in.
By Johnnie on Feb 14, 2012
Setting up 12 team roto league.
Are you a fan of using SP RP and P for the pitching spot or just using the 9 pitchers?
Thanks as always. Also thinking of putting an innings ceiling of around 1400 how does this sound. Bought the guide and I am a big fan.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Johnnie – I’m a fan of just using pitching spots and not assigning them. Give people the freedom to do what they want I say.
A 1400 innings pitched limit is fair and will stop someone from steaming pitchers every day.
Glad you like the Guide.
By friendtoall on Feb 14, 2012
Ray, have you seen the new yahoo pro leagues for cash?
How is that legal?
And, am I missing something or is it the biggest ripoff on earth (12 teams x $100 each and only $900 is paid out…)
I love gambling, look to play fantasy for at least $100, but this is fishy.
By Johnnie on Feb 14, 2012
Ray thanks
Friendtoall
Don’t use the yahoo leagues. It is just an easy way for them to scam money. Play in pay leagues with your friends. I would recommended using Fantasy Sports Vault or League Safe. Both are online league treasurers that hold your money and disburse it.
also be wary of paypal. They have an on again off again relationship with fantasy sports. I have had friends funds held bc they got wind it was for fantasy sports. FSV or leaguesafe
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
FriendtoAll- I have not looked into the Yahoo gaming situation for this season. Courts have long termed fantasy sports to be a skill based game so technically it’s not a game of chance which allows for the skirting of gambling laws in many cases from what I understand.
By friendtoall on Feb 14, 2012
Thanks, Johnnie. Thank, Ray.
I’m in a solid 12 man (h2h, hahahahah) that’s been going since 2004, but wanted to try and get in a roto for around $100… the yahoo seemed too good to be true… and it is…
By Johnnie on Feb 14, 2012
I don’t want to clog up this message posting but fantasy sports is gambling. For some reason it has been packaged for it to be legal (In some states.) There is as much skill involved in picking a player that you have no control over to get stats as picking a game against the spread. In both cases you are guessing or using “skill” to predict an outcome of a game. They are the same and both should be legal.
Friendtoall, I have an opening and we use FSV or League Safe if you give me your contact info ill send you more info
By friendtoall on Feb 16, 2012
This might be buried, Johnnie, but it’s palisfriendtoall at gmail
By Adam on Mar 12, 2012
Ray,
I waited until the middle rounds to address 3rd base in my draft last night, and ended up with Youk backed up by Edwin Encarnacion….thoughts on those two?
Thanks,
Adam
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2012
Adam – No idea ho you could wait until the middle rounds and get Youkilis. You’re either in an 6-team league, or your league immensely undervalued Youkilis.
By Jon on Mar 12, 2012
Ray – who’d you rather have at Pick #70 in a 10-team league with OPS? Youkilis or Young? And is that too high for either?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2012
Jon – You can take either Young or Youkilis. Given that it’s an OPS league, I’d take Youkilis who is always a good bet there. Should rebound this season too.
By Ken Caeti on Mar 24, 2012
Hey Ray! Your article on third base was very reassuring. I was one pick too late at # 6 in a 10 team head to head yahoo league to get Bautista (he went tantalizingly close at #5). So I ended up with Mark Reynolds. Know from last season and having him on and off that he has power. Tried to fill in the other stats with other selections. Wish me luck this season! I’m sure I’ll be calling for advice! Ken
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2012
Ken Caeti – Reynolds is top-5 at 3B last three years in HR.RBI.Runs. Also will swipe a handful of bags. He’ll be a strong asset, providing you can work in that average around him.
By Gina on Mar 26, 2012
GREAT article, Ray! As always, informative and enlightening. Thanks for all that you do!
Gina
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Gina – Thanks a lot for the support.