Can You Wait on Pitching?
February 14th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.
5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine
Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.
You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.
C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios
I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.
OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.
Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris
OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).
As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.
Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: ADP, Brandon Morrow, Bud Norris, Cory Luebke, Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, Kenley Jansen, Mock Drafts, Ricky Noalsco, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Madson
By Randy on Feb 14, 2012
Interesting read. I plan on taking a similar approach in one of my leagues this year (16 tm, 12 keeper). I’m keeping 9 – possibly 10 – bats, with only 2 or 3 SP’s. My IF is locked up, and I only have to worry about drafting OF, SP and CP. We’ll see how it turns out.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Randy – Obviously with keepers, an a 16 team league you can’t afford to wait as long on pitching, but going offense heavy often results in a better team.
By Eric on Feb 14, 2012
Ray,
It’d be nice to see how your team fares compared to other more conventional strategies. This team is quite competitive and aligns well with your balance strategy.
Thanks,
Eric
By Jim on Feb 14, 2012
I like the team, with the exception of Ricky Nolasco who has historically driven fantasy owners crazy. I’ll draft very similarly in one of my drafts where we have only 4 keeps. I’m not even keeping James Shields, who I love. But on the whole, pitchers are idiots. They think nothing of getting hurt in the first month after you’ve blown a Top-50 pick on them. Unlike position players, who usually return at some point in the season, most pitchers stay hurt until the following year. No thanks. Give me a balanced offense that makes some noise in every category every time.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Eric – Yeah, it didn’t turn out too horribly did it? If I massaged it just a bit, not talking Rios and Murphy so early to make a point, my staff would have been even better.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Jim – Nolasco continues to have strong skills, and he continues to underperform, there is no doubt about it. Still, I remain hopeful, especially if you can get to him in the 20′s.
By Adam on Feb 14, 2012
I totally agree with the strategy about picking pitchers late and going for the high K guys when you do. The part I don’t know about is going 5 straight OFs, I prefer picking top guys at weak positions (C,1B,2B,SS) than hitting OFers with upside.
By Keith on Feb 14, 2012
I usually do more or less what you just did, Ray. Instead of a deliberately balanced team, I end up with one that looks like a softball squad. I believe:
1) In head to head play multi cat studs are gold, guys who can give you numbers almost every day.
2) Power hitting is the single most scarce resource in today’s baseball.
3) Great hitters are more predictable than great pitchers. If you bust on an early round pitcher, not only is he a writeoff, but you also lost that opportunity to load up on more offense.
4) When everyone else has filled their #1 and #2 SPs, you’re still looking at guys like Hamels (my #1 last season). Then you play for upside – last season I was on Kennedy, Norris, and Pineda – and work the wire for breakouts.
5) Second and third tier closers, and sneaky ratio middle relievers.
With this approach I usually end up sacrificing BA, but loading up in the other batting categories, and breaking even in pitching.
By Jared on Feb 14, 2012
Ray,
Last year you talked up Shields quite a bit as someone who should do well based on peripherals and such. I got him in almost all my leagues last year based on your advice and we all know how great he did.
Do you have anyone in mind this year who has the potential to do the same as Shields last year?
Thanks,
Jared
By Eric on Feb 14, 2012
Ray Can you review the sophomores this year. Which of last years rookies will mature and which will become one hit (or Pitch) wonders?
Thanks
Eric
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Adam – I just took five outfielders to start to make a point – I’d never really do that. However, I will say this – I’m not the biggest fan of position scarcity if that means overlooking better players.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Keith – Sounds like you’ve got a solid plan that works well for you Keith. There is no replacement for practice.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Jared – Did you get a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide?
http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/30/2012-baseballguys-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/
At all the positions I’ve highlighted three guys that I think make great bargains after the elite arms are gone.
If I was going with one arm this year, I’d go Brandon Morrow.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 14, 2012
Eric – not a bad idea to review second year players. Some guys I’ve already reviewed:
Jeremy Hellickson: http://baseballguys.com/2011/12/26/player-profile-jeremy-hellickson/
Some third year guys:
Josh Tomlin: http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/17/player-profile-josh-tomlin/
Ivan Nova: http://baseballguys.com/2011/11/18/player-profile-ivan-nova/
Jason Heyward: http://baseballguys.com/2011/11/17/player-profile-jason-heyward/
By Sanibel on Feb 20, 2012
Ray, as always, it’s fun reading your logic: Thanks!
Q1: If Robinson Cano was available would you have taken him instead of CarGo? If not, why? (I’m drafting #6 and it looks like Cano might be still available, along with Cargo).
Q2: Do you agree with your colleagues’ top-3 picks (Kemp, Pujols, Ellsbury)? Especially Ellsbury…
Q3: You took McCutchen (I love him too) over Votto, Fielder or Reyes ~ you picked Reynolds but you don’t mention who’s your SS). Why forgoing these guys? Isn’t OF’s somewhat less scarce than SS? Isn’t Votto’s BA is much more preferable to Reynolds’?
Thanks, Sanibel
By Ray Flowers on Feb 20, 2012
Sanibel – I’d take Cano over CarGo. However, I have no problem dropping a bit further down in a draft if I can (i.e. meaning if I can choose I like being in the 9-11 range because I think a guy like Cargo is pretty darn similar to a guy like Cano that is almost always being taken earlier).
Who are my colleagues that you speak of (this was a draft with listeners from my show, they were not “experts”)? There is ZERO chance I’d take Ellsbury in the top-3. Would never happen. Some thoughts here – http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/01/comments-greatest-hits/
This draft was me making a point. I would NEVER take McCutchen over Votto. I set out a plan to take 5 straight outfielders, and then all hitters before I took a pitcher to make a point that you could still roster a solid pitching staff. Don’t read too much into this like it’s my plan in every draft – it is NOT.
For a more traditional draft, see – http://baseballguys.com/2012/01/23/part-iii-vegas-and-the-fsta-draft/
By Jeremy on Feb 22, 2012
Ray, I listen to you every day on the drive home, so glad you’re back on at that time!
So I went ahead and tried waiting until the 14th round to start taking pitching, and I’m pleased with the way my team came out! I do 4 leagues every year, 1 is a keeper league, but in the other 3 leagues I am going to use a similar strategy. What do you think of how my draft went? Was a 10 team league with the same 25 rounds and roster positions as the league you did. I took OF with first 4 picks & picked 8th of 10.
OF Justin Upton
OF Carlos Gonzalez
OF Josh Hamilton
OF Ryan Braun
C/1B Carlos Santana
3B Alex Rodriguez
UTIL David Ortiz
OF BJ Upton
CI Kevin Youkilis
1B Ryan Howard
SS Derek Jeter
2B Jemile Weeks
MI Dee Gordon
P *Yu Darvish
P Andrew Bailey
P Brendan Morrow
P Jordan Walden
P Clay Buchholz
P Trevor Cahill
1B Adam Dunn
OF Yoenis Cespedes
P Chris Perez
P AJ Burnett
C JP Arencibia
P Addison Rees
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012
Jeremy – (1) my strategy in that pitching piece - Can You Wait on Pitching? – was a mere shot int he dark. I was NOT telling people to wait until the 14th rd. on hurlers, though of course you can if you want. (2) I also just took 5 OFs to start for fun. even if you wait on pitching, you don’t have to employ that strategy.
Dont love the Howard at 1B, but your offense is pretty impressive.
As for waiting on hurlers Darvish, Bailey, Morrow, Walden are strong adds. Don’t like Cahill, Perez is spoty, and Buchholtz can’t be trusted and isn’t going to repeat his season of two years ago.
Good luck with the squad.
By Jeremy on Feb 23, 2012
Thanks for the reply Ray, I know it’s not really a recommendation from you, but definitely like the looks of my bats. Howard was a reach, but I have Santana to put in there or Dunn or Youk depending on what do with waivers. I like in Phoenix, and figured I’ll see about 20 DBacks games live this year, why not have Cahill, he’s an innings eater, I’ll try him out this year
By JDW on Mar 5, 2012
Ray – I really mean it when I say you are the man! Your profiles are the best! But I have a dilemma. I was willing to wait on pitching so, having the number 1 pick in our league I was planning on drafting Kemp. But I’m thinking of trading down to #10 so I can grab Carlos Gonzalez and then nab Kershaw at 14 after the turn. Am I crazy to pass on Kemp for that combo realizing I might miss other gems by giving up the 1, 24th and 25th picks for 10, 15, 34? Was really planning on waiting on pitching but am becoming increasingly convinced Cargo can almost match Kemp.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
JDW – I’m not a huge fan of going hurlers early, and Kershaw at 14 is pretty darn early. If you can deal down you can do that, but understand is you do that you aren’t certain to get CarGo. I’d rather have 1, 24,25 – but that’s me.
By Matt w on Mar 5, 2012
Ray, I have to decide on 2 keepers can you give me advice on who to keep and why?
David Ortiz, Pappelbon, Matt Moore, Howie Kendrick, Melky Cabera, J. Hellickson, Vance Worly, and Javy Guerra. o yeah and dee gordon. Thanks
there are 12 teams, only can keep 2 players there is no cost and its not yet said how long we have them for.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Matt W – I’d keep Matt Moore and Howie Kendrick from your list.
By JDW on Mar 5, 2012
You’re always so gracious with your time and your responses. I won’t bother you with another Q&A for the rest of the season, as you already get too much of that!
I’ll take my one answer per year and be very happy with it. I really appreciate the response. Feeling much better keeping 1,24,25! Thanks so much, Ray. You’re among the best of the best of the best! Take care and have a great season(s)!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
JDW – You got it my friend. Really appreciate the support.
By shea on Mar 22, 2012
16 team league auction 5×5 I kept J. Johnson, G gonzalez, Kuroda, Brandon Phillips and LOMO… two questions..do i still need to go after a top 20 pitcher in auction say like Haren, or wait till much later and just take the best guys with skills sets and ride it out with the three i kept? also i plan on going heavy with hitters (at least 2-3 big ones) what would you prefer to round out my infield Phillips-Pedroia-escobar? or Phillips-andrus-Hardy? all about same price for the combo of 3… thanks alot.. love your show?
help me decide between Brandon Phillips with either Pedroia and escobar.. or Zobrist and andrus
By Chris on Mar 26, 2012
Ray-
In my head to head category league, I am thinking about focusing on drafting as many 5 cat hitters in the early rounds as possible, then shifting to closers in middle rounds. My thinking is there will be enough quality arms for SPs late. I hope to win at least 4 cats in offense each week, and win saves, Era, whip as even mid-tier closers have good ratios. What do you think?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Chris – I don’t like H2H. However, your plan here is sound. In h2h all you really want is two start starting pitchers which you can stream. If you can balance them out with a group of impressive bullpen arms your ratios should remain solid enough for you to contend most weeks.