One Of Those Days
February 16th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
You ever have one of those days? You know the type. You wake up with a little bit of an extra pep in your step. The morning sun hits your face as you sip on your hot coco. You’re looking forward to a good day of work which will then be capped off by an evening with someone you care about. What could be better than those simple pleasures, right?
And then the real world smacks you in the face.
That happened to me today. Oh there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, it’s still well before 11 AM as I write this, but darned if life doesn’t just try and beat you down whenever it can. Why is that (in case you are wondering, nothing “really” bad happened to me, it was actually more about typical annoyances)?
In the vein of “bad days,” here are some guys that have had life beat them down of late. Hopefully they’ve got some Bailey’s Irish Cream to throw in that hot coco.
Alejandro De Aza – A solid option really late in drafts for the speed upside, that outlook was crushed when the White Sox decided to add Kosuke Fukudome to the outfield mix. So much for that 26th round pick of De Aza offering much of anything. He’s now merely an AL-only option.
Josh Hamilton – No need to pile on here. Let’s just hope that he gets his life back on track. A positive note came out Thursday. Hamilton will not face any discipline from the Rangers or Major League Baseball for his recent off the field transgressions with the bottle.
Scott Kazmir – He was supposed to throw for interested parties on Wednesday, but for some unknown reason the session was pushed back until Friday (he claims it has nothing to do with any physical sort of limitations and the most likely explanation is that some team that had an interest likely wasn’t going to be able to present at his throwing session on Wednesday). What the hell happened to Kazmir by the way? Just 28 years old, it’s amazingly easy to forget that it was a mere couple of years back that he was locked at as one of the up an coming lefties in the game. He wasn’t just coming on to fill a 4th or 5th rotation spot either. Kazmir was going to be an elite hurler. In 2005 he posted a 8.42 K/9 mark in 186 innings. In 2006 he upped that number to 10.14 over 144.2 innings. In 2007, his best campaign, he won 13 games, posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out a significant total of 239 batters in 206.2 innings. Those K’s led to a 10.41 K/9 mark which just so happens to be the 8th best mark that any left-handed pitcher, who threw at least 162 innings, has been able to post in the 21st century (if we remove Randy Johnson’s efforts that would put Kazmir’s mark in the 4th spot). Alas problems with his conditioning and dedication came up, and his arm ran out of juice (his average fastball was 93.7 mph as a rookie, 92.6 mph in his second season, and it dipped all the way to 86.5 mph in his 1.2 inning outing last year for the Angels). He’s still young enough to carve out a role but he will never reach the heights that were predicted.
Derrek Lee – I know he’s older at 36 years of age, and that he struggled for much of the season last year, but Lee still hit .267 with 19 homers in just 435 at-bats. So why is he still without a team? Certainly there are offers on the table for Lee, likely as a part-time option, so I’m going to assume that Lee is holding out for a starting gig somewhere. I find it hard to believe that there are 30 better first basemen out there right now but he’s still sitting at home.
Johan Santana – Coming back from shoulder surgery, all eyes are on the one time superstar of the Mets, but come on now. Did you see the report that the Mets’ pitching coach – Dan Warthen – was impressed by a video of Santana throwing. Really? I’ve got better things for you to watch on your laptop than Santana chucking the ball around – maybe an episode of Grimm? Did you also see the report that he was throwing from 175 feet? Whoopie freaking do. I haven’t regularly thrown the ball in about 10 years and I could go our and play catch from 175 feet. That means nothing. Johan plans on throwing at the Mets’ camp today so I guess the eyes of the baseball nation will be upon him. Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was. As if age, workload and shoulder surgery weren’t enough to worry about, have you bothered to look at his numbers the last few years? I can list one series of numbers for you that should make you exceedingly nervous, even if he is healthy once more in 2012. Here are his K/BB ratios the past six seasons (remember, he didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2011): 5.29, 5.21, 4.52, 3.27, 3.17 and 2.62. Uh, that’s not a good trend even if the 2.62 K/BB ratio he posted in 2010 is still well above average.
By Ray Flowers
To purchase the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, click on the link.
Tags: Alejandro De Aza, Derrek Lee, Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Scott Kazmir
By IceholeTour on Feb 16, 2012
Standard 5×5, 12 team Keeper question.
Will be keeping Andrew McCutchen along with 2 of the following….Thoughts?
Carlos Santana
James Shields
Hunter Pence
Danny Espinosa
By Ray Flowers on Feb 16, 2012
Icehole Tour – Two keepers for me would be McCutchen like you suggested. Second would be either Santana or Pence. Depends on how long you can keep players, if you start two catchers, five outfielders etc. My gut says go with Santana who has a chance to be a special hitter from the catcher’s spot.
By icehole on Feb 16, 2012
Ray,
I get 2 on top of McCutchen, so I assume its Santana and pence are your guys?
Thanks
By Thomas on Feb 16, 2012
Ray setting up a first year dynasty league. Using Roto with standard rosters and an auction setting. How many players would you allow each team to retain in our dynasty setting?
I have read leagues that keep their whole team. To me if you wiff on the draft then it becomes impossible to ever improve your team with this. What number would you go with? 14 players or half the league is what I was thinking and then we would still be able to have a draft which is the best day of the fantasy season. Could really use your help
By Ray Flowers on Feb 16, 2012
Icehole – Yes, Santana/Pence are the best two add to McCutchen from your group of potential keepers.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 16, 2012
Thomas – In a true dynasty league, you keep pretty much the entire roster. If you are in a keeper league, it’s more about limiting teams to X amount of players, so it sounds like you would prefer the keeper setup. Most leagues use round numbers – 5, 10 or 15 – when it comes to keepers. Really up to you, but I like 10 if there are limits on how long you can keep players. If there are no limits, lower it to 5 (you don’t want someone drafting one year to end up with Cabrera, McCutchen, Hosmer, Pence, Starsbug for ever — would hurt the competitive balance).
By Andrew on Feb 16, 2012
Ray- got this email from one of my league commishes…every play in a league like this…any major strategy or do you have a top 5, bottom 5 teams?? Thanks
Hello and welcome to the 2 MLB team league. After all 14 teams are accounted for, we will be holding a 2 round draft in a group page (soon to be created) on facebook. You will draft 2 MLB teams and receive all the current players on those 2 rosters to create your team. (after u have your 2 teams you must change your team name example “Philadelphia Mets” or “New York Phillies”)
Once you join the league Please change your team name to the draft spot that you wish to have (example Team 1- 1st round- 1st draft pick and 2nd round last draft pick) First come first serve for the spots so get um while there hott..
there is a total of 14 teams in this league, each containing 2 MLB teams, Your fantasy team is only allowed to have players from your 2 Current MLB teams. (only trading if players get traded on MLB rosters) You may only add/drop players on your rosters however there is always 2 MLB teams on waivers which u may drop 1 of your 2 teams at any time to pick up 1 of 2 available teams
Thanks,
A
By Thomas on Feb 16, 2012
I am in a keeper league now where we keep 8. I am looking to do somewhat of a dynasty league where you carry over the vast majority of your roster.
If I were to do a dynasty league would 18 20 23 25 players be a reasonable amount? Should
If you do keep your whole roster how do you acquire players if you do not have a draft anymore? Free agents? Just want to know what the options are. I like the idea of keeping them on your roster forever if you decide to pay for them but am curious if you keep the vast majority of the roster how you would ever add players to your rosters that you would keep
By Pablo on Feb 17, 2012
Hey Ray what do you think of this? 5×5 12 team mixed w/obp – preseason trade – my braun for mccutchen, assuming no suspension for braun. If suspended, add my pence to the deal (who I wasn’t keeping). Keep 4 players forever, my other keepers are Agon, J-Up, and RZim. I’m not comfortable with the blemish on braun and want to get keeper value for him for the long term. The other option instead of mccutchen was kershaw – same deal.
By Rex Weddle on Feb 17, 2012
Re: De Aza
Ray, you’re too much of a pessimist.
While the adage: “Men plan; God laughs” easily applies to fantasy sports, I also believe that it’s very easy to overreact to February news and think it’s suddenly doomed all your carefully laid planning.
I think De Aza will still be an inspired pick once the season plays out and will pay a nice ROI.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2012
Red W – Re: De Aza
I’d like to think you are right. I think a De Aza in the 27th round can net you 30 steals, so we’ll just have to hope you are right about the playing time.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2012
Pablo – If Braun is missing 50 games, I’d obviously prefer McCutchen.
My thoughts on Braun: http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/01/comments-greatest-hits
Confused by the second part. Are you saying Pence/Braun to get McCutchen?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2012
Thomas – If I was doing a dynasty league, I’d want to keep the draft meaningful. Therefore, I wouldn’t go over 15 keepers. Otherwise, you end up just drafting guys like Josh Willingham and John Lannan each year.
If you limit the keepers to 15 that will help deal with the issues you bring up. If you’re keeping 25 things get tricky.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2012
Andrew – Never heard of a league like this. I’ve heard of leagues that are AL WEST or whatever, but I’ve never heard of two teams only setup. Very interesting.
No real advice here other than to, obviously, target teams that always win games – NYY, BOS, TB, SF, ATL, PHI etc.
By Pablo on Feb 17, 2012
Yes – pence/braun for mccutchen, if braun is suspended. Otherwise straight up braun for mccutchen. keepers forever. I wasn’t planning to keep pence anyway
By Ray Flowers on Feb 17, 2012
Pablo – If Braun is suspended, and forgive me if I’m missing something, why would it cost two players for him but if isn’t suspended the cost will only be one player?
By Pablo on Feb 17, 2012
The guy who owns mccutchen wont give him up for braun if he is suspended, but would if I threw pence in (his keepers suck). If he’s not suspended, he’ll do the trade even up.