ADP Talk: Group Think
February 22nd, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Thinking for yourself is always dangerous. People are nervous about being wrong. It’s pretty much human nature to want to follow versus lead, and nowhere is that more evident than in yearly Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers. Player X is hot so he moves up the ADP rankings. People then, thinking they are missing out on something, continue to support Player X. Relatively quickly that elevated ranking becomes a self perpetuating ranking that people eventually accept as fact. Should things be that way? Sometimes yes, but often times no. Some thoughts on the value of ADP follow.
ADP numbers are different depending on your source so make sure you use a reputable one. However, even if you use MockDraftCentral, the best source for the material in my opinion, there are a few substantial limitations.
First, who is doing these mock drafts that are leading to the ADP numbers? Are those doing the mocks experienced fantasy players or are they people that have just taken up the game? You might say ‘why does it matter?’ There’s a major reason why it does matter. An experienced fantasy player understands how a draft works, the ebb and flow of it, and how to target players etc. An inexperienced player will likely do what seems like a smart thing – they will follow a sites ADP list with the thinking being that if they aren’t sure about how to do something why not follow the recommendations provided by an ADP list? Therefore, inexperienced people are likely to perpetuate the current ADP rankings because they are more likely to closely follow the ADP lists, especially if their knowledge base isn’t substantial.
Second, is the draft filled entirely with actual people, or, is part of the draft being run by automatized managers? Obviously if there are eight live managers and four auto pick teams in your draft the ADP numbers will be skewed because the computer will pick exactly according to the ADP list that the site puts out further perpetuating the ADP rankings.
Third, even if there are real people doing the draft, are they going to draft an entire 30 man roster, or, as is more likely the case, will they draft the first 15 or 20 rounds before being pulled away from the draft to do something else? When this happens the selection of players in the later rounds will revert to auto-pick further perpetuating ADP numbers.
Fourth, what if someone is trying a “strategy” just to see how it will work out? I personally did exactly that a week or so ago when I drafted five outfielders in my first five picks and didn’t take my first pitcher until round 14. I wanted to see how my team would do if I waited to target pitching. I like how the team turn out but I would never do something so drastic if it was for an actual league. Clearly my “strategy draft” might skew the ADP rankings. It might not really matter if there are hundreds of drafts feeding into ADP, but I can’t be the only person who is experimenting during mock drafts lending yet another caution to the thought that you can use ADP as if it was gospel.
Finally, what about this thought. The folks over at Baseball HQ put out a study that showed the following: over the past eight years only 37 percent of the players selected in the first round of a draft returned first round value that year. In essence, almost two-thirds of the players selected in the first around according to ADP failed to live up to that level of expectation. Obviously that means that there is no answer to who the best choices are as the simply fact of the matter is that at least half of all of the players that we think will be first round performers fail to live up to that billing. The point being, that just cause someone is listed at #27 on the ADP chart doesn’t preclude him from being a top-5 overall performer. In fact, you have just as good a chance of your second round pick performing like a first rounder as your first rounder has of performing like a first rounder. To sum it up, ADP numbers simply aren’t infallible.
So the next time you’re doing a draft, don’t be slavishly tied to some ADP list. Not only are their some problems with how ADP numbers are put together, but you also have to consider the fact that we simply cannot predict with a high level of certitude who will be what in the coming campaign.
* Note: Here’s Lawr Michael’s take on ADP and how you should use/view those numbers.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: ADP, Average Draft Position
By friendtoall on Feb 22, 2012
Good points.
ADP is obviously a piece of draft strategy, but not the entire puzzle. I have no problem reaching for the players I want be it on a hunch, research, or because they are on a team I like… heck, it’s your team may as well like it.
By ritch goldstein on Feb 22, 2012
Ray,
I just bought your 2012 draft guide. As my Main number 1 fantasy resource I look forward to your insights.
Ritch
By Polka on Feb 22, 2012
It’s because she’s smoking hot Ray!!!
You don’t need Kay on Match.com hunting her down for you!
I’m Ray Flowers, professional Sports Analyst!
By the Way, I met my wife on Match and she’s gorgeous and smart, but hates me doing Fantasy…even though last year I won almost everything I was in and after Football handed her $3700 cash, and she still bitches about me playing, even after that then winning the work Hockey and BASEBALL leagues!!!
I told her, look my baseball draft will go well over 6 hours this year and she just wants to know the cost….!
Anyway, back to the smoking hot Katherine, I love her too!
Go Tigers!
By Polka on Feb 22, 2012
that was Lawr’s article, sorry:)
we have about 4 donator’s each year who are strict magazine/adp followers, and I just ask for my check at the draft and then they get pissed? why??
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012
Polka – Your wife is from an online site… and she’s hot, that’s great. Sounds like you are a luck man amigo. Where is my hot wife…? If she’s a great lady, then you can live with her issues with the fantasy game, right?
By Brad on Feb 22, 2012
Hi Ray,I have to pick 5 keepers out of these players:Josh Johnson,Kimbrel,Teixiera,Brandon Phillips,Ryan Zimmerman,Matt Holliday,Michael Young…what do you think?
By Rich M on Feb 22, 2012
Hi Ray. I just sent you a ten spot for your baeball guide. I really like the fresh approach that you bring to fantasy baseball,especially your recent column about category targets. As we all know, all projections are flawed and miss the mark by more than 25% so why worry about targets that are based on flawed projection numbers! Can’t wait to get my hands on your draft guide!!
By Fred on Feb 22, 2012
Ray- how undervalued is Cuddyer’s 2b eligibility in yahoo leagues? BPhill lite but about 7-9 rounds later? Thoughts?
By Jerry on Feb 22, 2012
hey Ray just bought the baseball guide and have a question. I know you don’t draft pitchers early but how early would you draft in this situation. 10 team head to head pts league, where we had people not happy their pitcher went say 8 and just got quality start. Not enough pts for that much quality so this year we may add pts per inning pitched after the 6th. So 1pt for 6, 2 for 7, 3 for 8, and 4 for 9 innings + possibly complete game pts. This would of made Verlander like 3rd in total pts. If we do this then how would your approach be??? Help please!!! Jerry
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012
Brad – here is my list of keepers for you.
1 Holliday
2 Tex
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Michael Young
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012
Rich M- Thanks for the donation mi amigo. Glad you enjoy my work as I try to make it fun, entertaining an informative. Hope you enjoy the Guide.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012
Fred – In standard leagues, Cuddyer doesn’t qualify at 2B since he failed to play 20 games at second. If in your league he is eligible there, then his value obviously improves substantially. Here is a link to my piece on Cuddyer:
http://baseballguys.com/2011/11/14/player-profile-michael-cuddyer/
By Ray Flowers on Feb 22, 2012
Jerry – Thanks for the purchase.
I still don’t really change my approach on pitching much in your situation. Maybe an elite guy like Verlander moves up, but realize two things.
1- Verlander will not match his output of last season. He could very easily give you 85% of last year in 2012 (even less is quite possible).
2- ALL pitchers gain value in this league, so you have to judge how the increase in cats affects all pitchers. Verlander’s value would increase because of his substantial IP totals, but all pitchers totals go up so he isn’t gaining as much as you think.
By Dave O on Feb 23, 2012
Hi Ray,standard 12 team league. got a keeper/trade question. need 4 from A. Gonzalez,Bautista, Hanley, N Cruz, B Jennings, J Weaver ? also a guy in the league is offering Braun. he is expecting no suspension. I am thinking of offering Hanley or maybe a combo of 2 players. he also has Crawford, Konerko and maybe McCann for keepers. any idea’s. thanks !
I also bought your guide, was wondering when you will have an update on that ?
By Jeff on Feb 23, 2012
Hey Ray,
I always hear from experts that it is important to take part in mock drafts for fantasy preparation. But based on the fact that ADP rankings based on mock drafts can be skewed, how important are mock drafts themselves?
I am in a head to head points baseball league. Do you think a value based drafting approach is feasible in this league as in football. I have used in it football and it seems to work well.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2012
Jeff – I don’t see the comparison you are trying to make here. Even if ADP #s can be skewed, why would that dissuade you from doing mock drafts? Mocks are the way you learn how to handle a draft. As I’ve said often, drafts are an ART not a science. The only way you can get a handle on art is to immerse yourself in it.
Funny thing —- value based drafting was originally a baseball strategy that was co-opted for football.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2012
Dave O – For your keepers.
1 Bautista
2 A-Gone
3 HanRam
4 Weaver
Hanley for Braun = like that option.
As for your update, as the post for the Guide clearly states, you have to send me a copy of your receipt and I will send you an updated copy (I update it on a daily basis if needed). You get one free. Can be whenever you want it.
By Bobby on Feb 23, 2012
Hello Ray.
I enjoy your work on the DRIVE. I am in a 5×5 10 team roto league what would be your guess on numbers i would need to be at W,K,ERA,WHIP,SAVES.. HR,RBI,SB,R,AVG..
With all your knowledge i know you have a good idea.. thanks again
Bobby
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2012
Bobby – Glad you like our work on SiriusXM amigo.
My article on Targets — it answers exactly your question:
http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/08/category-targets/
By jb(not JB) on Mar 13, 2012
Ray, Saves, Thornton or Reed?
thanks
By Jason on Mar 13, 2012
Ray, i have David Wright (Potential keeper), but i do have health concerns with his recent news. If i don’t keep him I can take Brett Lawrie with that pick.
Who would you rather go with Wright or Lawrie.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012
jb (NOT JB) – For now, I’m going with Thornton as the closer for the White Sox. No idea though if he will lead the team in saves or not.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012
Jason – I’d still take Wright over Lawrie at this point. There are plenty of guys who are struggling with injury right now. I don’t think in Wright’s case that it’s enough to significantly drop him down draft boards – at least not yet.