K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I
February 23rd, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:
Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball
*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.
One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.
Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.
Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.
Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.
Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.
Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.
Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.
Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.
Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.
Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.
Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.
Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.
Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.
Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.
Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.
Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.
In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: B.J. Upton, Brandon Morrow, Derek Jeter, Dustin Ackley, Felix Hernadnez, Howie Kendrick, Josh Beckett, K-Bad, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Ricky Romero, Sergio Santos, Shane Victorino
By Brian from idaho on Feb 23, 2012
Ray could you rank a few players for me please?
Mike young, Wieters, Choo. Young has 1b,2b, and 3b eligibility in our league. its an 8×8 league with tb, obp. thank u
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2012
Brian – hard to just rank guys, there needs to be some context for everything.
Young with three position eligibility is big.
Do you start two catchers? If only one Wieters is strong option, but not someone you have to reach for.
Choo – do you start 3 or 5 ofs? If 5 I have more interest, but I’m not 100 percent sure he’s going to be a .300 20/20 guy again this year.
By Jeremy on Feb 23, 2012
Hey Ray, I listen to you on xm, and I feel we have a lot of the same views on baseball. I have been kicking back and fourth in my auction league. I want a good 3b and CI. I really want to get Longoria and Wright/Lawrie. Between Wright and Lawrie for this year who is the safer bet. Wright $30 injuries – Lawries $18 Youth. I dig both of these guys. The prices I have is what I project for them to go for.
Jeremy
By Ray Flowers on Feb 23, 2012
Jeremy – I’d take Wright over Lawrie this year. Many would go in the other direction, but I fully expect a solid rebound from Wright. Paying $30 for Wright is too high though, I’d be reluctant to go that high. $18 for Lawrie a bit high for me as well, but I’d rather go in that direction over Wright at that high price.
By Colin on Feb 23, 2012
I can’t believe Kay is getting a WS ring, Ray. I need some help finalizing my team. 16 team mixed keeper 5×5 with OPS. Start 3 OF & 2 Util. How do rank Rollins, Choo, Trout, Kimbrel?
By Bobby on Feb 23, 2012
Hi Ray,love your input.I have the 3rd pick over all in a 12 team Roto.If Pujols and Cabrera are 1,2 should I go Tulowitski or Kemp? Or would you select another player? I thank you for your help.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2012
Colin – I know… Kay and a World Series ring. Lucky gal.
Without knowing how your team is built, so hard to say.
Trout is well behind the others. I’m not sure he’ll even open the year with the big league club. Kimbrel is a great arm and a top option out of the pen, but I’d rather have everyday performer like Rollins and Choo over him.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2012
Bobby – I’d go with Braun if the other two are taken, and my fallback option would then be Kemp.
By Bill on Feb 24, 2012
Ray,
Great work on the Draft Guide and on this site year round. Keeper question. 5×5 14 team Rotisserie league with OBP replacing BA, and otherwise standard categories. $500 team budgets instead of $260. Each team has 5 keeper slots. Players can be kept for up to three years, with $10 added to their salary each year.
I have three slots as of now (traded two last season trying to win-ended up second)and could probably buy another before the auction (March 18) for $10-12.
One of my slots wll be used for Jose Bautista, who will be $21 in year two of his 3 year keeper contract.
My options for the other two slots with their 2012 price:
Ian Kennedy $24
Cliff Lee $61
Rafael Betancourt $11
Aramis Ramirez $35
Dee Gordon $11
Jason Kipnis $11
Jemille Weeks $11
David Ortiz $31
Gaby Sanchez $11
Also, would it be worth acquiring another slot at $10
Thanks for your help,
Bill
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2012
Bill – Appreciate the support.
I’d say that you sign Gordon. Could flame out, but at that price, with his massive wheels upside, he’s worth the risk. Second option – Kennedy. Not a huge fan, but that’s a solid value. I’d like to suggest weeks, but he and Gordon are too similar.
By Bill on Feb 26, 2012
Reading through the draft guide again this morning. Articles are very helpful. Thank you again. Lots of useful ideas for targeting players.
I have been leaning towards Gordon for one of the slots given the huge SB potential at SS, figuring if I could get my SB anchor there, it avoids using an OF spot on a speed first guy, targeting more balanced guys.
Your Kennedy answer surpises me, even though I don’t necessarily disagree, but I know you aren’t high on him, and when I look at the dollar values in the Draft Guide, you have Kennedy at $10, included with the 4th tier. Now the $10 is closer to a $20 equivalent in this league ($500/team), but at that number there is no value for him at $24.
In comparison, you have Ortiz at $23 and A Ramirez at $25 ($46 and $50 for my purposes), meaning both would have approximatelt $15 value over their keeper price.Gaby Sanchez at $19/$38, would have even more retained value.
I tned to think the value on Kennedy is low (even though I agree with what you have written about him,, I just think even with the adjustments the value is higher), but I am just curious what your thinking is.
I have two other questions, though they may be more appropriate for “article suggestions”, but a few thoughts would be welcome anyway:
1) How do dollar values compare to actual auction values in your view, meaning, a guy like Gaby Sanchez may earn $19, as you have him valued, but he is the 12th 1B, and in a tier that goes to 16, and above a tier that includes Dunn and Goldschmidt, who I think we agree could easily end up havig more value. The question is when you are doing an auction, how much, if any, additional value do you tack on to the elite (at 1B say 1st and 2nd tier) options v. the guys in the 12-20 that are closer to replacement value?
2) For inflation values do you take the list of kept players, figure the value retained (value assigned in your ranking minus keeper salary) and then take the total dollar value of the keepers as a percentage of total dollars to spend as a rough way to adjust values, or something else?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 26, 2012
Bill – I like Gordon, and have a lot of hope that he’ll have a big year, but he’s far from the lock that a Gardner or Bourn are.
Auctions = there are no answers, that’s what makes it so hard to just set up “rules.” How much are first baseman going for? More or less than normal? How many first baseman are left? How much $ do you have left to spend? How many roster spots to you have left to fill? Do you have power? Do you need to focus on your pitching… etc.
I think people spend WAY too much time in actions messing around with computers, trying to figure out inflation etc. I’m old school, I just just pen and paper. I don’t need all that fancy junk which makes the whole thing so sterile. You need to understand/feel a draft and how it’s going. It’s almost an organic thing. Trying to get all literal with it misses the point in my mind. If you want a guy, spend an extra $2 to get him.
By Paul on Feb 27, 2012
Ray,
Miggy’s alcohol problems didn’t scare you off this year?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2012
Paul – Miggy was able to play through his alcohol issues last year and seems to have his life in order. Hard to worry about it at this point.
By Kris on Mar 6, 2012
Hi Ray, I listen to you often on xm and enjoy your insight. Could you help me with a keeper question? I’m in a 12 team mixed 5×5 rotiserie league with 5 keepers. I am keeping A-Gon, Hanley, Justin Upton, and Grienke so far. Would you keep McCann, Aramis Ramirez, or BJ Upton for my final keeper? It’s a 1 catcher league.
Thanks…
By Ray Flowers on Mar 6, 2012
Kris – It’s only a one catcher league, so there is no reason to keep McCann. I like him a lot, but just don’t need to keep him in this setup. Aramis R is a fine option, but he’s not elite. Keep Upton, B.J., to join his brother in your outfield. How many guys in the game can make a legitimate claim to being a potential 20/40 guy?
Glad you like the show as well.