K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II
February 24th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.
In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.
Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.
Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.
Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.
Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.
Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.
Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.
Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.
Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.
Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.
Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.
Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.
Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.
Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.
Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.
My Squad.
C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells
Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco
Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson
I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.
I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.
Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brennan Boesch, Chris Davis, Daniel Murphy, David Robertson, Dexter Fowler, Frank Francisco, K-Bad, Kurt Suzuki, Rafael Furcal, Ricky Nolasco, Ryan Doumit, Scott Baker, Sergio Romo, Vernon Wells, Wandy Rodriguez
By Mike on Feb 24, 2012
Hey Ray, thanks for sharing the K-BAD results. I have always found them helpful. Also still digesting the 50+ page draft guide. Great work!
I have a keeper question for you. 20-team, H2H-Points keeper league with $70 cap, (salaries go up $1 every year of MLB service; two minors players can be assigned $0 contracts when they are drafted).
I’m contending and need SP help. Which side?
Posey $1, Cliff Lee $5, Hak-Ju Lee $1
or
Beachy $2, Darvish $0, Kipnis $1, Addison Reed $1, Jean Segura $0
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2012
Mike – Glad you enjoy the work. I try to keep it fun an interesting.
Are you trying to win this year? I’m inclined to think the second group with all the young players is the way to go. You can keep Darvish for 5 years before he will equal your cost for Lee this year. Think that is the way to go.
By Tom on Feb 24, 2012
Keeper league can keep forever with no penalty
Give Jose Bautista
Get Justin Upton
I know you are anti Bautista and do not believe in his AVG but we do count OBP and he is for real in that category. I also am set with Lawrie at 3b.
Runs HR RBI SB AVG OBP and Total Bases
Pull the trigger or Stand pat
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2012
Tom – Do the deal. Upton is younger, and is a more complete fantasy player. Since your league counts OBP it’s pretty tough to say make the deal cause you aren’t likely to win this one this year, but if you are looking forever keeper, I still take JUp.
By Mike on Feb 24, 2012
Hi Ray,
I was wondering if there are a certain number of HR, RBIs, SB, Wins, Svs and so on that I should be shooting for in a 10 and 12 team league. Some number for each category I use as a goal I draft. Does such a thing exist?
Thanks,
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Feb 24, 2012
Mike – I wrote a whole article on category targets:
http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/08/category-targets/
By Tom on Feb 25, 2012
Ray,
Glad to hear you back on drive time on xm. Does the draft guide have auction prices for 10 team AL only league? Also, any tips on creating your roster via auction versus drafting. Drafting comes down to best player available at your slot while auction has you passing on players once they outprice themselves for your budget. How do you know which players to make that extra bid or two on? Thanks.
By Mike on Feb 25, 2012
Thanks Ray. I listen to you and Kyle and Kay everyday and you guys do a great job. It’s always nice when you guys come back to the drive home. That means summer and baseball can’t be far behind!!
Thanks,
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2012
Tom – The Guide does NOT have AL only auction values. It obviously has rankings though so you can see how I evaluate players. The Guide also has an article relating to how to handle strategies for auctions. It also includes articles on how to evaluate players which hopefully will guide you into understanding when it might be worth it to go that extra dollar.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2012
Mike – We’re glad to be back on at our “normal” time of 5-8 PM EDT, Mon-Fri. Sirius 210, XM 87.
Thanks for the support!
By Tom on Feb 25, 2012
Ray did the deal. I rely on you for lots of advice. If I win any $ in my leagues this year expect a donation, you will have earned it
By Eric on Feb 25, 2012
Hi Ray -
I can keep either Moore or Jennings for essentially the cost of a 5th Round pick for as many years as I want. Which one would you choose?
I know Jennings is typically ranked ahead of Moore in Top 300 lists and whatnot, but Moore seems to have much more glowing commentary around him.
By tbone on Feb 25, 2012
head to head 3 keeps 12 team league
Between CC Felix Haren or Bruce who u keep if other two keepers are Kemp and Upton? new to site do u have advice/article on head to head draft strategy in particular?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2012
TBone – I don’t believe in H2H baseball. See: http://baseballguys.com/2011/09/21/mailbag-september-21-2011/
Bruce is not in the mix here.
King Felix is the choice. He’s young, healthy, eats innings, strikeouts out a ton, and gets all kind of ground balls.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2012
Eric – Moore or Jennings eh? Either one could be a five time all-star, so it’s hard to say. Some of it depends on who else you are keeping. I like Jennings, wrote about him last year here: http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/01/the-prospect-trinity/
Still, I’d hold Moore. He could be a cy young winner, simply has dominating stuff. At the same time, I don’t love the idea of either guy at a 5th round keeper level though long term.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 25, 2012
Tom – You can send accolades and checks to Ray Flowers, P.O. Box… j/k
By Eric C on Feb 26, 2012
Ray used your guide for Mock Auction.
how does ESPN rank this team 9of10
C – Suzuki
1B – Sanchez, Dunn
2B – Cano, Walker
3B – Zimmerman
SS – Tulo
MI – I Desmond
CI – Prado
OF – Ellsbury, Crawford, Braun, Stanton, Cruz, D Young, R Sweeney
SP – Cain, Burnett, E Jackson, Cueto, Garcia, Nolasco,
RP – J Johnson, Capps, Clippard, Jansen
what am I doing wrong? more pitching??
By big o on Feb 26, 2012
Ray :
I can’t begin to adequately describe how much I thoroughly enjoyed this report .
Kudos to all of the experts who devoted their time and energy to explain their thought processes .
This is , by far , the best teaching/learning piece that I have read on the internet this year .
Again , I much appreciate the effort .
Regards ,
big o
By Ray Flowers on Feb 26, 2012
Big O – Glad you enjoyed the KBAD report. It’s pretty cool how we break things down as we go through the draft.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 26, 2012
Eric C – Projections are hit or miss. I dont ever worry if a site tells me my team stinks after a draft. I don’t go by anyones # projections.
I’d guess.
They dont think Dunn rebounds. Ditto with Crawford.
Your RPs dont have a 30 save guy amongst them, so they likely aren’t giving you many saves.
Your SPs are thin. Not a huge fan of Burnett, Jackson, Cueto or Garcia… all have their place, but I’d never want more than two of those on my team, all four of them likely knocks you down in projections.
By big o on Feb 26, 2012
Ray :
Took over a last place team in a 9-keeper , 12 team league , for the start of the 2011 season .
The previous year , this team scored 20 roto points .
By the end of April , I flat-out dropped 6 of the previous owner’s 9 keepers leaving me with : uggla , wright and s. drew .
By year’s end , having utilized a pretty good draft strategy and assisted by pulling off 3 trades , I ended up with these potential keepers for 2012 :
votto , uggla , wright , lawrie , jesus montero ,
bruce , jennings , kemp , heyward , and stras .
I have to eliminate one .
My instincts tell me to drop heyward , and hope to re-capture him in this year’s draft , but he was one of the guys that I traded for , so there is some pig-headed resistance coming into play here .
I also have madson , street and guerra … but I don’t feel that they enter into the equation , here .
Obviously , my draft strategy for 2012 is pretty straight-forward .
But , I would like you to tell me which (of the 10)
I should drop .
Thanking you , in advance ,
big o
By Ray Flowers on Feb 26, 2012
Big O – Montero would be the one I’d most like to drop if we are talking about 2012, but since it’s a keeper lg, you better hold on. That leaves the only dropable option at Heyward.
By Jason on Mar 5, 2012
Hi Ray,
I know you had the NL LABR draft last night. I checked out the draft and thought it was interesting to see various experts and the different strategies.
I wanted to know how you felt about your squad?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Jason – I’m gonna write an article about LABR soon. I thought draft turned out pretty darn well. I should have added Volstad or Oswalt late, mistake not going there, an I probably shouldn’t have pushed to add Aaron Hill. Otherwise, not bad.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0ArmGKrK0BcyidHJjby1aLTE0OEUwNTUyVDRieHVQTHc&f=true&noheader=false&gid=5