Player Profile: Nate McLouth
February 27th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Nate McLouth enjoyed his greatest success with the Pirates. Therefore, it only seems logical that he chose to return to Pittsburgh to try and rediscover his his lost game. The club and player agreed on a one year deal for $1.75 million, with $450K in incentives also available, in a low risk move for the Pirates. Can McLouth reward that faith, return to prominence with the Pirates, and once again be a solid outfield option in the fantasy game?
In 2008 McLouth was one of the surprise stories of the year on his way to being an elite outfield option in the fantasy game. Nate hit decent .267, but it was his other numbers that stood out. McLouth hit 26 homers and stole 23 bases to pull off the old 20/20 trick, and he also knocked in 94 runs and score 113 times. It was a stupendous fantasy effort.
For a follow up in 2009 Nate saw all his numbers drop, but he was still a solid fantasy contributor. Splitting the year between the Pirates and the Braves, McLouth hit .256, socked 20 homers, stole 19 bases, drove in 70 runs and scored 86 times. One steal from a 2nd straight 20/20, McLouth was the only outfielder in baseball to hit 20 homers, steal 15 bases, knock in 70 runs and score 85 times in both 2008 and 2009. I told you he was an impressive fantasy play.
Then things went horribly wrong. Seemingly never fully healthy in his two seasons in Atlanta, he even had a stretch in the minor leagues to try and find his lost game, McLouth appeared in only 166 games. In those 509 at-bats he hit a sickly .210 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 66 runs and 11 steals. I told you it was awful didn’t I?
So what went wrong? First, and most obvious, is the fact that Nate struggled with injuries. There’s nothing you can do if you are hurt. Is this a trend that will continue moving forward for Nate? It’s possible especially when you factor in that he plays the game very hard, but he’s also only 30 years old and that isn’t exactly an age that sends up red flags.
Performance is another issue to consider. McLouth posted a some awful numbers the last two years including a BABIP in the .220′s both times. Given that he owns a .276 career mark, and never failed to post a mark of at least .271 over his five big league seasons, a batting average rebound seems likely in 2012. He also posted the best BB/K mark of his career, 0.85, in 2011. That’s another good sign. It also makes sense that a fella who owns a 10.1 HR/F ratio for his career would see a regression to the mean after posting marks of 7.5 and 5.3 percent the past two years. At the same time, it’s not like you can just ignore the past two seasons when his skills seemingly eroded.
Will McLouth get a chance to play everyday? That’s a good question. At this point the Pirates have burgeoning superstar Andrew McCutchen who will obviously be in the lineup every day, and the team is fully committed to giving Jose Tabata a chance to fulfill his potential. That being the case, McLouth will have to battle with Alex Presley for playing time in the outfield (Presley would seem to have the lead in the battle), and that situation could get even more crowded if the team brings back Derrek Lee or signs someone else to play first base which would likely force Garrett Jones into the outfield mix (as you can tell from looking over at Fleaflicker, there is no love right now for McLouth). If McLouth plays everyday I think he makes a solid buy low option late in a mixed league draft, but with the Pirates crowded outfield situation at the moment McLouth is looking like a depth option in the outfield in NL-only leagues until the playing time issues work themselves out.
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By Ray Flowers
Tags: Braves, Nate McLouth
By Chase Golden on Feb 27, 2012
Hey ray, bought the guide awhile ago, are rankings ever going to be updated?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2012
Chase G – Rankings are updated daily as needed. As the Guide article says:
Everyone that purchases The Guide will be able to get one free update of the player rankings. Get The Guide now, study it, take in all it has to offer. If you’d like up updated version of the rankings contained within it a few days before your draft, all you will need to do is to shoot me an email, attach your receipt from PayPal, and I’ll send you a file with the updated player rankings in a spreadsheet.
By Eric on Feb 27, 2012
Ray just an Idea. Ever think of creating a league that your loyal readers could compete vs you. You could require like a $25 donation to join the league. Make it like a 20 team league or so. You would please your reader and earn some money for Baseball guys.
Thanks Ray
Eric
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2012
Eric – I like the way you are thinking. Might do something with Yahoo right along those lines!
By Joebagels on Feb 27, 2012
I’m In! LOL
In a H2H pts league keeping Ellsbury 8th round -3yrs left, Heyward 22nd 3yrs, J-Upton 10th 1-yr, and hanson 11th-1year
and one of either Masterson 23rd-3yr, Beltran 16th rd -3years, JJhardy 21st-3yrs or Santos 23rd -3yrs (we require 3RPs)
I can choose one of them, or I could Trade Upton who cant be kept anymore for Posey 22nd for 2yrs and either Morse 23rd-3yrs or Gordon 23rd 3yrs
Which 5 would you consider best. Should I trade upton for the duo or keep him and select one of my own?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 27, 2012
JoeBagels – I would keep Santos. Power arm, at 23rd round value for three years, nothing to dislike there. Hardy (21st) is a better choice though IF you believe he will stay healthy.
Are you playing to win this year? If so, hard to trade Upton. If you are targeting future, Posey/Morse is a solid haul since you can’t keep Upton.
By Jonathan on Feb 27, 2012
Ray,
Keeper questions:
I am in a daily 10 team head to head (5×5) league, and we get to keep one hitter and one pitcher. I will be drafting at the wheel spot since I won it all last year.
My hitting options for keepers: Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, D. Wright, and Reyes. Would I be wrong in leaning towards Ellsbury because of the 5 category production over Adrian Gonzalez? I always try to fill 3B and OF with my top two picks as it seems like you can always get good production at 1B in the later rounds since it is a position that doesn’t have much speed. Seems like a high price to pay for a good 4 category player.
My big question is at pitching. I did pretty well with rookies and waiver wire picks after trading pitching for hitting last year, and I am only left with a few options: M. Moore, Strasburg, and Kimbrel. I am leaning toward Strasburg for the long term potential, but the innings limit scares me a bit. Do you think it is ever a good idea to keep a closer like Kimbrel over a starting pitcher even when it seems Venters could pounce on the job at the first sign of trouble.
Thanks
J
By Bangs on Feb 27, 2012
Nate McLouth … I just can’t quit him.
He’s one of those guys that I seem to wrap up my drafts with, in hopes of him recapturing 2008/09. I don’t see a turn around coming this year, mostly due to playing time as you pointed out … but I bet he still finds his way onto the couple re-draft teams I’ll end up doing.
By Banker on Feb 27, 2012
Ray… pick 5 McCann $20 Michael Young $15 Kemp $33 Pence $18 Bumgarner $13 Lee $34 Price $15 CJ Wilson $7 Haren $22
Thanks
By TC Rider on Feb 27, 2012
Public Yahoo Leagues..12 team mixed, standard 5×5…..
1. What should be the targets per each of the 10 categories to field a winning team? I usually strive to come in 3rd place in each category. (my goal).
2. Do these totals include the “bench” players full stats?
Thanks,
TC
By Bigs on Feb 27, 2012
Hi Ray . Im in a 12 team keeper lg . im keeping mig cabrera , cano , tulo , longo , upton , kemp , and holliday . as well as hammels and ian kennedy. its a points lg ( single 1pt ect)and there is no cap on how long you can keep a player. Would you trade tulo and holiday for stanton and hanley ramirez ?
By Cliff Prince on Feb 28, 2012
Hi Ray
What are your thoughts on Salvadore Perez? I know he’s very young, played well when called up and the Royals just gave him a boat load of money. Yet I haven’t really seen him mentioned at all as a big time prospect. I see you have him ranked #23 which is obviously quite low for a guy who looks to be an everyday catcher at a thin position.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
Jonathan – I’m not a huge fan of AGone… he’s being overdarfted. No speed and he’s a .300 hitter not .330. That’s not first round value. Ellsbury is likely to regress, but he would be my choice of your potions.
I would never keep a closer if you can only protect two players. Even if EVERY team kept a closer, your league is only 10 teams. That still lives a ton of arms available. I’d keep Stras over Moore, but you could go either way.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
Banker – Five keepers: Kemp, Price, Wilson, Pence, MadBum
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
TC Rider – Targets do NOT include bench players. They are for the active roster slots you employ for the season. Wrote a whole article on this three weeks ago:
Targets http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/08/category-targets/
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
Bigs – Tulo/Holliday for Stanton/HanRam
Since it’s a keeper league, you might go toward Stanton’s side. He’s a decade younger than Holliday, and while he will never be that good of an all-around performer, he’s clearly got a massive power bat. As great as Tulo is, his injury issues just make me a bit nervous. It’s a fair deal from either side in my mind. If playing for 2012 Tulo/Holliday, if looking forward a bit the other side.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
Cliff Prince – Perez is a nice young player. He makes solid contact and could hit .300 in the bigs. The deal from the Royals really isn’t going to be that expensive if he lives up to expectations, though it does certainly look like a risk right now.
My thoughts on the catcher’s position.
http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/15/the-catchers-position/