Player Profile: Mike Stanton
February 28th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Ask anyone and they will tell you that Mike Stanton is a future star in this game. The owner of prodigious power, no park in the land can contain the ferocity with which Stanton sends balls into orbit. Because of his almost unparallelled ability to drive the ball into the cheap seats, Stanton’s value in the fantasy game continues to grow. Take a look over at MockDraftCentral and you’ll find that Stanton’s Average Draft Position is inside the top-25 (24.4 actually). Two questions come to my mind when I see that. (1) Can Stanton live up to those expectations? (2) How can Stanton possibly live up to those expectations? I know those are in effect the same question, I’m just trying to make a point — I think it’s going to be pretty darn difficult for Stanton to be as productive in 2012 as people expect him to be based on where he is being drafted. Before I get to that line of thought, he’s a quick run down of Stanton’s skill set.
Stanton has only 875 big league at-bats in his young career so that makes prognostication somewhat more difficult than normal. The guy has one season of 375 at-bats, so the old sample size question can be rightly brought up here as an uncertainty.
Stanton has hit .259 and .262 in his two big league seasons. In those two years he has hit .261, just every so slightly above the big league average of .256. Can he produce a better batting average than that moving forward? On a positive note he did boost his walk rate by three percent while cutting his strikeout rate by 3.5 percent in his second season. However, his BB/K mark was slightly below the league average at 0.42, and he still struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats (27.6 percent to be precise). That doesn’t sound like a guy who is primed for a batting average increase. Stanton also owns a mere 16.4 percent line drive rate in his career (16.5 and 16.3 percent the last two years). While he should be able to maintain his average given the homers he will hit that don’t count in this measure but lead to hits, it is somewhat concerning that Stanton is pretty far removed from the 19-20 percent big league average.
Stanton is all about the power which he has flashed since day one. However, and yes there actually is a ‘however’ when talking about his power, I have one small concern with Stanton. Much like Ryan Howard, another prodigious power bat, Stanton doesn’t hit as many fly balls as you think. In fact, Stanton’s career fly ball rate of 39.3 percent is only about two percent above the league average. He really doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. As a result, the only way he is going to blast 40+ homers is going to be if he converts a large percentage of those fly balls into home runs. Stanton has done that the last two years with an impressive 24.0 percent HR/F rate, and last year his 24.8 percent HR/F rate was the highest mark in baseball (to compare, the average big league posts a mark of about 10 percent, and even a huge power bat like Albert Pujols had only an 18.3 percent mark last season). Maybe Stanton can lead the league in this category year after year, it’s certainly possible. All I’m saying is that he’s going to have to be near the top of the leader board in HR/F ratio if he wants to hit 40 homers if he doesn’t hit more balls into the air.
Finally, an athletic 6’5”, Stanton has stolen five bases in each of his big league seasons but he’s just not going to run very much – it’s not his game.
So what do we have in Stanton?
(1) We had an hitter who strikes out far too much.
(2) We have a hitter who profiles as a league average contributor in batting average.
(3) We have a hitter with elite power, though one who struggles to hit a lot of fly balls.
(4) We have a player who is unlikely to steal many bases.
Does that sound like a top-25 fantasy player to you?
Let me ask you this – would you be happy if Stanton hit .264 with 40 homers, 106 RBI and 101 runs scored in 2012? You had better say yes because all four of those numbers would be career bests for Stanton. You know who put up those exact numbers in 2007? Try Adam Dunn. Did anyone, EVER, look at Dunn and think he was a top-25 fantasy performer? Anyone? Of course you didn’t. What if Stanton hit .248 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 90 runs scored in 2012? That would also be considered a career best effort for Stanton so you would have to be please wouldn’t you? Mark Teixeira did that last season and he’s being drafted after Stanton (Tex has a 27.8 ADP). Would you really rather have Stanton over a guy like Teixeira who has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI each of the past eight years given that Tex is also in a great offensive ball yard in a potent offense with the Yankees?
If Stanton improves across the board and has a rather impressive third season, something like either the Dunn or Teixeira campaign’s I mentioned above, he’s still not likely to live up to his top-25 billing. He offers little on the bases to augment his value, and that league average batting mark isn’t going to do him any favors either. I’m not saying to avoid Stanton or that he will fail. I’m merely pointing out that the hope of a huge power season might be causing people to draft Stanton at a point where he can’t possibly live up to expectations.
Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam Dunn, ADP, Mark Teixeira, Mike Stanton, Ryan Howard
By Matt on Feb 28, 2012
wow. way to hate on a player.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
Matt – Not hating on Mike Stanton, just being honest.
By Alan on Feb 28, 2012
Ray,
I’m putting my draft strategy together and using your player rankings. When looking at stats which would you put more value in: 3 year avg. of stats, last years stats, or 2012 projections?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Feb 28, 2012
Alan – projections are pretty useless. see – http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/08/category-targets
Projections are useless, don’t use them.
Rolling 3-year averages are pretty solid in terms of a down and dirty way to look at players.
By Craig on Feb 28, 2012
Ray,
Do you think a move up in the batting order and the addition of Jose Reyes might boost Stanton’s numbers? Also, Hanley had a pretty lousy year last year. If Hanley rebounds with the addition of Reyes could you seee Stanton reaching 115+ RBI?
By Craig on Feb 28, 2012
Ray,
Side note: Why the hell did Justin Upton have such a low RBI last year? I’m loving Upton this year – but the RBI’s last year killed me. Kelly Johnson was terrible in the leadoff role and it seems like the D-Backs don’t have very good table setters. Do you think taht changes in 2012?
By tommybones on Feb 28, 2012
Glad to see someone else agrees with me about Stanton. Thought I was crazy….
By Jim on Feb 28, 2012
Ray: Good, objective analysis of Stanton. The comparison to Adam Dunn is perfect, and Dunn had a l-o-n-g track record for bombs per season while never cracking the Top-25 that I remember.
Like similar players, I’ll take a huge power bat like Stanton if he falls to me and I can balance the team with a lot of speed and high average elsewhere, but even then, he’s not the type of player I like to build around.
By Cliff Prince on Feb 28, 2012
Agree wholeheartedly with Ray as well. Not down on Stanton. I just prefer to have players who do more than 1 thing well. When players like that don’t deliver on that one strength, well its not a good thing for your team if you took him early. In h2h leagues its even tougher to rely on a player like him.
By Jon on Feb 28, 2012
Hey Ray – thanks for the Stanton analysis. I drafted him last year and was disappointed.
Quick Wainwright deviation: what’s your take on him in a 10-team H2H non-keeper league? On the site I play at his current ADP is in the 80s overall… if he’s as healthy as he seems couldn’t that be the value pick of the whole draft? Any reason not to take him 1-2 rounds sooner than his ADP and still get a great deal? Thanks, man.
By Troy on Feb 28, 2012
A couple thoughts: First, to compare Stanton to Dunn is a bit unfair due to the overall lack of power in the current MLB. When Dunn had his 40 homers, there were many more home runs hit. Second, referring to the fly ball rate, it has been shown that players increase fly ball rate as they age. Lastly, I would think most people would agree that Stanton has higher upside than Teixeira. I’m not saying Stanton is worth 25th overall, or Tex is worth 27th, but I do have issues with the arguments brought up.
By Caleb Wagner on Feb 28, 2012
In a 9 team, NL only, 5×5 roto, auction keeper league (keep up to 10 players) would you rather have Mike Stanton or Starlin Castro? The cost the same and you can keep them the same amount of time.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Caleb W – Depends on how your roster plays out. Castro has a better all around game, and plays a tougher position to fill. Stanton obviously has massive power upside. The prevailing wisdom would be to hold on to Stanton.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Troy – Fair points all around. I stand by what I wrote, but again, your points are all valid and worthy of considering.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Craig – How did Upton’s RBI total kill you last year? 88 is a strong total, an it also happens to be the best total he’s posted to this point of his career. RBI’s are dependent on teammates, and they tend to go up and down.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Craig – Stanton could hit 115 RBIs this year with the table setters in Florida, but that’s a huge number, so as the article says, keep your expectations reasonable.
By Bangs on Feb 29, 2012
Ray,
It feels like you are running down my draft list. Stanton … unquestionable power. The key to me is the decline in HR across MLB, which makes him more valuable. I also generally play in OBP (not BA) leagues, so his 260 BA won’t hurt, since he takes enough walks to keep his OBP up.
But overvalued … sure he is. Though but in keeper leagues owner’s won’t move him as they are projecting 40/50 HR a year in the future. Will that future ever come? Obviously nobody knows for sure, but plenty are willing to gamble on it. Just make sure that before you do, you know what you are buying into.
By Joel on Feb 29, 2012
Ray:
Cuddyer has 2B eligibility in my 12 team h2h league. where do he think he ranks as compared to phillips and zobrist?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Joel – Cuddyer is a top-10 second baseman, but he is behind guys like Zobrist and Phillips who steal bases.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Bangs – Stanton only has a .344 career OBP. You’re right, that won’t kill you, but at same time it’s also not exactly an impressive number.
Agreed with your sentiment of being reasonable with expectations.
By Jeff on Feb 29, 2012
Ray – It seems my team does well out of the gate, but after the first 2 months they fall. So I was wondering if there any software to help draft a better team or other websites; beside BaseballGuys.com; worth looking at?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Jeff – You didn’t actually ask me to direct you to someone else to help you win your fantasy league, did you?
I don’t believe in draft software because it depends on projections. See –
http://baseballguys.com/2012/02/08/category-targets/
By Craig on Feb 29, 2012
Jeff, there’s no other source you need to go to besides Inspector BABIP! Hahaha, just kidding Ray. Seriously though Ray is the man! He doesn’t just pick players based on their uniform colors. Ray can crunch the stats like nobody’s biz.
By Craig on Feb 29, 2012
Ray,
You think Upton’s 88 RBI is strong for a OF#1? Upton tied for #16 in OF eligible players with Alfonso Soriano for RBI. Carlos Lee and Josh Willingham drove in more runs. Come on Ray! I need 100+RBI from my OF#1 with 600AB’s.
By the way it’s Giancarlo Stanton now…
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Craig – If you think an outfielder who hits .289-31-88-105-21 isn’t a strong option, don’t know what to tell you. 88 RBI is a strong total. If you finish in the top-18 percent at your position in a number, I believe that qualifies as strong.
By Craig Delseni on Feb 29, 2012
Ray
Listen, I already said I love Justin Upton. He’s my guy. I selected him in the 4th round in most my leagues last year. But he’s a top 10 pick this year according to MDC.
Would you take Upton in the top 10 with another .289-31-88-105-21 line this year?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 29, 2012
Craig D – If Upton repeats his numbers from last season, he will be a top-25 fantasy option. Does that make him a top-10 pick? Well obviously you know the answer to that.
Baseball HQ did a study that showed 47% of top-15 picks, the last eight years, ended the season as a top-15 player.
The truth is, everyone worries far too much about the first two rounds every year.
By Craig Delseni on Feb 29, 2012
Slow down Ray… I said “4th round LAST year”. Mock draft central has him as a top 10 pick THIS year. Top 10.
Is .289-31-88-105-21 TOP 10?
By Cliff Prince on Mar 1, 2012
People draft too much based on potential and hype instead of actual results. You see it in everyday leagues and in expert leagues as well. Thats ok, it only helps me in my draft but thats why someone like Upton is in the top 10 ADP right now. I think your first 2 picks should be as close to a proven commodity as can be. Upton is getting close to that but not top 10 yet, more late 2nd round. Ray is right, too much attention is paid to the beginning of the draft. Leagues are won in the later rounds. I got Gordon in the 20th round last year, and McGahee in the 20th round the year before and got Cliff Lee in the 17th round the year he broke out. It was no coincidence that I won those years and lost on the years where I whiffed on the later rounds.
By BIGRAGOO on Mar 1, 2012
@cliff prince. 100% agree with you. Late in the draft os were the leagues are won. And Upton in my league went 10 overall in a 12heads team league. To high in my opinion.
Agree that Stanton is being little over-valued. Drafting on potential will only get you wondering g what went wrong at the end of the year.
By E-Bat on Mar 1, 2012
I’ve got the 9th pick in my 10Tm H2H league. I’m targeting Upton or Cargo. Who’d you go with. Is there any chance of regression with Upton? Seems like the answer is no. I can only see him building on what was already a great season. Your thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 1, 2012
E-Bat – I haven’t see Cano fall to 9th in many drafts, but if he is there, no problem taking him. I wold select him over Upton. Upton could be better, but he still Ks a lot, and I could see the steals slowly regress as he ages.
By Hawk on Mar 1, 2012
Ray
I’d would not draft Stanton at pick 25 this year. He has to live up to expectations just to justify that pick – there’s no value there.
Where I think you’ll get some push back is that people think “He’s only 22 and has already put up .260 / 35 /90. He should easily get to .260 / 40 / 100 / 100. That’s Stanton’s floor”. Those people who are drafting him at 25 have visions of .275 / 45 / 120 or more.
Your breakdown essentially assumes he’ll be the same player this year as last. His ADP shows that the masses drafting him disagree.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 2, 2012
Hawk – You’re right, though I’d also point out… if he goes .275-45-120-100-5 he isn’t likely to crack the top-25 anyway…
By Bangs on Mar 2, 2012
Ray – any chance you re-think Stanton, now that he is going by his birth name of Giancarlo?
The name ‘Giancarlo Stanton’ alone should boost him up people’s draft boards … Giancarlo? Awesome …
By Ray Flowers on Mar 2, 2012
Bangs – Giancarlo is a badass name, but it doesn’t change my rankings for Mr. Stanton.
By Craig Delseni on Mar 2, 2012
Giancarlo is worth a minimum of 5 extra dingers this year. Bank on it!
By Kevin on Mar 2, 2012
In your recent “Kemp” article there are a number of spots where it should be “and” and not “an.”
Great stuff though! I’m a Sirius XM listener and a somewhat-regular, site visitor.
Only trying to help you out!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 2, 2012
Kevin – When you have a word that starts with a vowel, the use of an instead of and is warranted if used prior to that word.
Example:
an elite – is correct.
and elite – is incorrect.
By Craig Delseni on Mar 2, 2012
Wow, that’s an elite grammar lesson from Ray Flowers. Nice try Kevin – little did you know Ray moonlights as “an” editor for the Encyclopedia Brittanica just for fun.