In Blank We Trust?

February 29th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |

Should you trust Paul Goldschmidt to produce well enough to be a mixed league starter? Should you trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy? Should you have faith that Jayson Werth will rebound from a down 2011?

D’Backs GM Kevin Towers had this to say about Paul Goldschmidt the young, slugging first baseman who is generating a lot of hype in the fantasy game. “I would be happy if he did what he did last year and nothing more than that. If the power comes, great, but finding a way to get on base, if it is a walk or a base hit, I will take that from him.” Goldschmidt killed it last season blasting 30 homers in just 103 games at Double-A (this a year after he hit 35 homers in 138 games at High-A ball). Obviously, Goldschmidt is a power hitter, so it’s a bit foolish for Towers to have made the statement he did even though I understand he is doing it to keep the expectations in check for the youngster. Paul hit eight homers with 26 RBI in 48 games last season with the Diamondbacks. If he were to keep up that pace in 2012 we’d be looking at a first baseman hitting .250 with 25 homers and 80 RBI. Current ADP numbers show Goldschmidt going off the board 12th at the position, ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez (17th) and Carlos Pena (18th). Given that all three of those players have produced a bunch of seasons of the ilk that we’re postulating with Goldschmidt as a hypothetical outcome for his 2012 effort, are you as surprised as I am to see him being taking 75 picks ahead of a guy like Carlos Pena?

Kelly Clarkson has a great voice. Always love hearing her belt one out.

Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen said that the Fish will monitor the workload of oft injured hurler Josh Johnson. “He will dictate for us what to do,” Guillen said. “What I want him to do is have confidence in us to make sure we know. So he can come to us and say, ‘Listen, I need a day.’ Can I miss a start? I don’t want him to go out there and be a hero…” Guillen then went on to totally contradict himself, hardly a shock, by saying the following. “In my mind, I have this man throwing 200 innings and winning 21 games. That’s in my mind.” Johnson is likely to, at least, be removed early from games in which the Marlins have a lead or are behind, so I have a hard time envisioning that he will make it to 200-innings this season. You don’t have to believe me – just look at his track record. Johnson has pitched 200 innings once in his career and since 2006, his first season as a starter, he has averaged 119 innings a season. To compare, since 2006 Erik Bedard has averaged 112 innings a season. Read that again. The last six years the always injured Bedard is averaging seven less innings a season than Johnson. Are you really still comfortable with depending on Josh Johnson this season?

I was having a debate with a friend the other day. I’m a big fan of plasma televisions since I think they gives a better, more natural color than LCD televisions. Plasma’s also handle motion a bit better and they are better with dark colors (i.e. black levels), so it’s a slam dunk that plasma is better LCD in my mind. That will end your brief foray into geek talk. Wait… maybe all my talk is actually geek talk? Is fantasy baseball really any less geeky? Could it be possible that I’m that guy, the one who can’t relate to people because he is playing with his Han Solo and Chewbacca action figures? Nah, can’t be me.

How bad was Jayson Werth last year? In a season of at least 300 at-bats he posted his worst batting average (.232), OBP (.330) and his second worst SLG mark (.389 – it was .374 back in 2005). As a result Werth, who had posted an OPS of at least .850 for 4-straight years, saw that number dip to .718 last season. Awful. At the same time he still hit 20 homers and and stole 19 bases. Do you know how many outfielders matched those totals last year? The answer is just 11. Moreover, the last four seasons Werth has produced an average of 27 homers and 18 steals. He’s on my list of guys you’ll want to target in 2012.

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By Ray Flowers

Tags: Erick Bedard, Jayson Werth, Josh Johnson, Kelly Clarkson, Paul Goldschmidt