Contracts, Expectations and Bigfoot
March 2nd, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Yadier Molina is a rich man. Buster Posey is trying to prove he is healthy. Grady Sizemore is on the sidelines yet again. A.J. Burnett needs to learn how to bunt. All this and more in today’s article at BaseballGuys.com.
For those of you looking to get a draft guide to help you to dominate the competition, I’ve got you covered.
Yadier Molina signed a 5-year, $75 million deal to remain with the Cardinals. I’ll say this, Molina is one of the most well rounded catchers currently pulling on the tools of ignorance. He’s got a rocket for an arm, calls a good game, and he took his offense to new heights last season when he reached career bests in average (.305), homers (14), RBI (65) and runs scored (55). Molina also surpassed his career OPS by .107 points with his .814 number. So clearly the Cards did the right thing in locking him up, right? Well, I don’t know about that. The contract covers Molina during his age 30-34 seasons, not exactly time to put him in an old folks home or anything, but that’s getting up there fore a catcher who is playing 135 times a season. In fact, the deal is the third largest in baseball history for a catcher behind the preposterous 8-year, $184 million that Joe Mauer received and the 7-year, $91 million deal that was lavished on Mike Piazza. Molina is a top-10 option at the catcher’s position in terms of his fantasy value for 2012 in my mind even if he fails to live up to the homer total from last season, but I worry about his ability to be a top-10 option when he turns 34 years old (of course, in the real game, defense matters a heck of a lot and that’s a good part of the reason that the Cardinals lavished Molina with that big money deal). Oh, and for reference sake, Jose Bautista signed a 5 year deal for $65 million this offseason. Molina better stay healthy and continue to be an excellent defender.
Speaking of catchers, Buster Posey will not play in the Giants Cactus League opener on Saturday. The team is taking it easy with Posey who may not actually see game action until the middle of next week. I’m still not convinced though. He still isn’t running the bases yet, and there is no telling just how well his body will handle the grind of catching since he last played a game in late May of last season. Those that are drafting him as a top-5 option at catcher and a top-75 option overall might hit it big if Posey is healthy, but at this point I’m thinking that it might be time to start waiving the cautionary yellow flag with Posey.
I’ve realized I’m a pretty good cook. At the same time, it’s all about following a recipe and having some confidence, so I shouldn’t be patting myself on the back too heavily.
Grady Sizemore will never be the player he once was. He was a 30/30 performer in 2008, and he once scored 134 runs with a .907 OPS (2006). Alas, injuries to his lower half have limited him to just 104 games played the last two years. Now we get news that he is likely to miss 8-12 weeks after needing micro disecectomy surgery on his lower back. At this point, you had better not be counting on Sizemore to help you out at all in a mixed league in 2012, or perhaps ever again unfortunately. Even if I was drafting in an AL-only league, Sizemore shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a 4th or 5th outfield option, an even that might be pushing it since it appears likely that a best case scenario would see him back at full strength on June 1st. In the meantime, Michael Brantley should step into the starting role in the outfield and at the top of the batting order. If Brantley can get 500 at-bats he could be a significant AL-only option, but there is still a very real possibility that at some point when Sizemore returns Brantley will see his playing time curtailed.
Did you see the most recent “proof” that bigfoot exists? It’s a photo of something that looks awful big and hairy. Photos can be so easily manipulated anymore, but what about footprints? There was a string of tracks, 122 in all, that were recently discovered in Oregon. Why did I bother posting this information? Perhaps it’s because I always wanted to be a cryptozoologist. By the way, here’s a great story about Bigfoot and baseball players.
Poor A.J. Burnett who I wrote about in his Player Profile. Burnett was injured while bunting – who said baseball wasn’t a contact sport – and he will have surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone around his right eye Friday. It sounds like Burnett will miss 8-12 weeks, hardly a confidence inspiring start to his career with the Pirates.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: A.J. Burnett, Bigfoot, Buster Posey, Grady Sizemore, Joe Mauer, Michael Brantley, Yadier Molina
By Tom on Mar 2, 2012
Was listening to the drive. If you ever wanted to change your twitter handle just go to settings and your username will be listed and you can toy with it and fix it. Pass that on to Kyle and Kay
By Ray Flowers on Mar 2, 2012
Tom – Thanks for the Twitter update. Will pass it on.
By Craig Delseni on Mar 2, 2012
Ray, you need to rock this hat at your next live draft.
http://www.zazzle.com/gone_squatchin_hat-148800103266879496
By Alex on Mar 2, 2012
I can’t believe how much they overspent on Molina
By Cliff Prince on Mar 3, 2012
Hi Ray
I was wondering how you would rank the following guys I’m targeting later in the draft. Stolen bases get lumped in with walks and total bases so its not as big a factor. This is not a keeper league, its H2H based on categories:
Duda, Lucas LF NYM
Davis, Ike 1B NYM
Harper, Bryce WAS
Morrison, Logan
Rasmus, Colby CF TOR
Heyward, Jason RF ATL
thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2012
Cliff Prince – davis is the best option. all others have talent. I like hewyard too of the outfielders.
By Jeff D on Mar 3, 2012
Ray – Just got the draft guide and I’m psyched to read it. I’m in a keeper league and I can keep 6 players, standard 5×5, no keeper limits (price doesn’t increase, I can keep them forever) -
Kemp*, Braun*, Verlander*, Konerko, Youk, Hosmer, Heyward, Jered Weaver, BJ Upton, Rollins, Choo (* = no brainer). I know your thoughts on pitching so I’m hesitating on keeping 2.
Thanks for your advice!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 3, 2012
Jeff D – Hope you enjoy the draft guide my friend.
With your group I’d keep:
1 Kemp
2 Braun
3 Verlander
4 Upton
5 Youkilis
6 Hosmer
By jensen on Mar 4, 2012
Hey Ray..just used your guide for my draft on Friday..and wow it really helped.. It enabled me to target great value picks..I was able to decide when to pass on a position and get comparable value a few rounds (Starting Pitching) while nailing down players like Tulowitzki and Cano that clearly are at the top of their tier at each position. It truly does help to be able to use your guide and know when to target great value picks.. Thanks for the help Ray
By jensen on Mar 4, 2012
Hey Ray got a quick question with a trade offered to me… Iam being offered
Mark (KO machine) Reynolds and Dan Haren
For my
Doug Fister and Ryan Zimmerman..
Scoring is -1 for a K and 4 for a HR.. 7 for a Win and 3 points for a Quality Start..Beyond Lincecum,Fister is all i got for SP.. Is it worth the trade for Haren and Reynolds ?
By jon on Mar 4, 2012
Hey Ray – thanks for the draft guide. Been reading it all day! Just found out I’ve got pick #6 in a big-time 16-team 5×5 mixed draft. My first time in a league this deep, so two questions:
1) Who do you like best at Pick #6 in Round 1 assuming Miggy/Kemp/Braun/Pujols/Tulo are gone (I’m guessing there, but think it’s pretty likely). Which other first round guys would you like there: Votto/Bautista/Cano/Upton?
2) Any general strategy comments for a league this deep with many savvy players? Now that I know my pick # I can plan a little bit and any advice you can offer would be great! Thanks.
By Craig D on Mar 4, 2012
Ray,
Yahoo Money League – 12 team, roto, 9th overall pick, waited until Round 9 to take a pitcher.
1.Joey Votto
2.Jacoby Ellsbury
3.Josh Hamilton
4.Matt Holliday
5.Carlos Santana
6.Kevin Youkilis
7.Jimmy Rollins
8.Jason Heyward
9.Josh Beckett
10.Tommy Hanson
11.Jordan Zimmermann
12.Ricky Romero
13.Brandon Morrow
14.Jeremy Hellickson
15.Max Scherzer
16.Jonny Venters
17.Chris Sale
18.Neil Walker
19.Tyler Clippard
20.Alex Rios
21.Matt Joyce
22.David Robertson
23.Delmon Young
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Jensen – glad that the Draft Guide helped you to make some of those important draft day decisions.
In your setup, -200 pts for all the Ks that Reynolds is going to rack up is a huge loss. Fister is solid, but no way he repeats what he did last season though, so I’m pretty tempted to make this deal since Haren is a such an improvement over Fister. If it was me, I’d do it.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Jon – If I was in your spot I’d go Cano or Votto. Either one is a rock. Just depends how you want to build your team. Either option is a good option. In a 16 teamer, I’d lean toward Cano.
Keep an eye on runs. You dont want to get shut out on closers or catchers in a 16 teamer with 30 selections between your picks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 5, 2012
Chris D – Like what you did here. As you’ve shown, you can build a competitive staff simply by being smart about your selections.