Player Profile: John Danks
March 7th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
John Danks went 8-12 last year with a 4.33 ERA which is apparently causing a lot of people to be wary about rostering him in 2012 (how else can you explain the fact that guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Trevor Cahill are being taken ahead of him according to ADP numbers?). Hopefully I will be able to lay out a convincing case that Danks is not someone you should be fearful of rostering in 2012.
First off, win-loss records are terrible ways to look at a pitcher and try an decide how he performed. Trust me on that one. Even with eight victories last year Danks has still averaged 12 wins the past four years. That’s a solid total even with last years single digit mark.
Danks has a durable arm. Even last season when he struggled with performance an injury he still tossed 170-innings for the fourth straight year. The previous three seasons he threw at least 195 innings each season.
Danks had averaged 157 strikeouts from 2008-10. Last year he dipped to just 135 punchouts so the natural inclination is to think his K-rate slumped so you should be concerned. That’s not the case, an I’m sure that BaseballGuys.com readers already know that. In fact, Danks produced a 3-year high in his K/9 rate in 2012 at 7.13 (his mark the previous two years was 6.69 and 6.85). There’s no concern here.
Danks walk rate last season was 2.43 per nine innings. Guess what? That’s a career best number, half a batter below his 2.94 career rate. Danks’ 2.93 K/BB ratio in 2011 was also a career best mark by the way.
Danks had a 43.8 percent ground ball rate in 2011, his third straight year over 43 percent and slightly above his 4.26 percent career rate. The result was a 1.20 GB/FB ratio just one hundredth off the best mark he had ever posted (1.21 in 2008). Danks actually allowed the second fewest fly balls of his career, percentage wise at 36.4 percent, and his HR/F ratio for the year was 9.9 percent, a direct match for his career mark.
So let’s see if I have this straight when it comes to Danks’ performance in 2011.
A 3-year high in K/9.
A career best BB/9.
A career best K/BB.
A better than career number in GB/FB.
An average HR/F rate.
So why/how were Danks. ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.34) at four year worsts?
Some thoughts.
(1) Danks’ left on base percentage was 70.1 percent. That’s a career worst (career 73.3 percent).
(2) His batting average on balls in play was .313, a career worst (career .290).
(3) He was unlucky. I know that’s a simplistic way to look at any scenario, but it certainly seems that bad luck may have played a part in Danks’ fall last season in the ratio categories. Take a look at the xFIP of Danks last year (xFIP is normalized to the league level of homers and tracks those outcomes that a pitcher directly has in his control). Danks posted an xFIP of 3.79 which actually is a career best number (career 4.12).
So what do we have in Danks? I believe we have a hurler who is being somewhat overlooked in some respects because people perceive that his performance last year was poor when in truth that simply isn’t the case. If people in your league make the mistake of overlooking Danks consider yourself lucky because you’ll have a shot to roster a pretty darn good hurler on the cheap.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: JOhn Danks, White Sox
By Cliff Prince on Mar 7, 2012
darn it Ray, stop profiling my sleepers LOL. I hate it when someone does his job well.
By Jon on Mar 7, 2012
i agree with cliff! Heh. Two quick ones for my upcoming 16-team mixed roto non-keeper draft:
1) Bautista too much risk to take at #6 overall with guys like Votto/Cano still available in a league this deep?
2)What’s your strategy on SPs in a league this deep (snake draft)? I’m thinking I’ll take 2 bats (at #6 and #27) and then the best SP left at #38 (likely to be the Haren/CC tier).
thanks! LOVE the draft guide.
By Anthony on Mar 7, 2012
Ray- great advice, love reading the columns that you post.
I have a keeper question for you: In my league we can keep a player for 3 seasons- I have Miggy Cabrera, Cano, Zimmerman, Posey and I’m between Strasburg or Haren.
Haren gives me stability and is a horse year after year, but i can’t ignore Strasburg’s upside as a potential keeper.
What is your recommendation?
By Craig D on Mar 7, 2012
Ray,
Who would you take to fill a final OF spot? I’m kinda looking more for upside…
Alfonso Soriano
Delmon Young
Vernon Wells
Michael Brantley
Mike Trout
Mike Carp
By Nokwurst on Mar 7, 2012
Ray,
Firstly, SOOO glad you, Kyle, and Kay are back on at 5pm ET, love it!
Second, the good news: I just scored CarGo in my 12 team mixed keeper for my 5th rd pick (we keep 4, can keep forever)
Third, the bad (not so bad) news: I now have to decide between the following for my last keeper:
Dan Uggla (position scarcity)
Hunter Pence (safest but 3 OFs?)
Jered Weaver (best talent but 2 SPs?)
Desmond Jennings (young w/ upside)
I’m already keeping CarGo, Josh Hamilton, and Doc Halladay.
Thoughts?
By Eric on Mar 7, 2012
Hi Ray,
I’m a fan of your blog and your show on Sirius! I was hoping I could get your thoughts on a couple trade offers I have. I have inherited a dynasty league team that is stacked with pitching (Lee, Halladay, CC, Lincecum, etc) but has glaring holes at 1B, SS and OF. I have these offers on the table, which one seems like the best deal:
Hellickson for Chris Young (OF)
Hellickson for Michael Young and Jake Arrieta
Kuroda for JJ Hardy
I think Hellickson is overvalued a bit, so I wouldn’t mind moving him in a dynasty league for the right players in return.
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Jon – I’d take both Cano and Votto over Bautista. As I keep saying, I find it nearly impossible to believe that Bautista is gonna hit .300. If he is slugging 40 homers while batting .275, I just don’t think he should be taken over the other two.
I’m not a fan of taking pitching early, no matter the depth of the league. I do NFBC style, 15 team mixed drafts all the time, and I’ve never, not once, had more than three hurlers in my first 10 picks, and I’m rarely taking more than two to be honest.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Anthony – Strasburg or Haren? No wrong answer. For 2012 I’d take Haren, but as he ages and Strasburg gets away from the innings cap, he could easily surpass Haren in 2013 and 2014. Haren is more stable, Strasburg is the great hope. There are still those who worry about the mechanics of Strasburg leading to further injuries, but the upside is undeniable. Safe keep is Haren, but if you’re going for it, tough to say to pass on Strasburg.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Craig – If you are looking for “upside” then the answer to me is Delmon Young. The guy is a year removed from hitting .298 with 112 RBI. He doesn’t have that much pop though. The other bats you list are solid, and I might give Wells a look too, but in truth, none really has any upside – they’re just solid 5th outfield types.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Nokwurst – We are happy to be back to our normal slot on SiriusXM Radio – Monday through Friday 5-8 PM EDT.
Of the group you suggest, I’d be interested in Weaver if I didn’t already have Halladay. Don’t think you have to keep two arms. Uggla is a strong bet to do what he always does. Jennings has that huge upside, but also biggest question mark. I’d keep Pence. He isn’t likely to be better than last year, but he is just about as consistent as any hitter in the game.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Eric – Of course you are a fan of my work, I’m great at it (and so modest j/k).
Here are my thoughts on Hellickson – http://baseballguys.com/2011/12/26/player-profile-jeremy-hellickson/
Since you have SP depth, I’d move Hellickson for Young. CY can’t help at all in avg, but 20/20 guys aren’t that easy to find.
By Pablo on Mar 9, 2012
Hi Ray – who would you pick for my 4th keeper in a 4 keeper 12 team 5×5 with OBP (keep forever)? RZimm or Kershaw? My other keepers are Braun, J-up and Agon.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2012
Pablo – Since you already have three hitters, and can keep a guy forever, take the young star on the hill from the Dodgers – Kershaw – as your 4th keeper.
By Tall Boys on Apr 29, 2012
Ray, Are you still high on Danks? I’m thinking of dropping him to pu Mark Ellis because I’m in need of runs and a back-up 2B and was wondering what you think?
I’m in a 10 team roto catagory league (I know you hate 10 team leagues) but ours is a 32 man roster with 2 players at each IF & C position, 5 OF, 1 U, 6 SP, 3RP, 7 bench
I recently picked up Daniel Bard dropping Reuben Tejada and A.J. Burnett dropping Gabby Sanchez (I have Hosmer, Pena, & La Roche)
My other SP & RPS are Josh Beckett, King Felix, Morrow, Romero, J. Zimmerman, Danks, AJ, Bard, BAlfour, League, Marshall, Broxton, Chapman.
I mainly have Bard and Chapman in case they end up closers and in the case of Chapman I could always insert him for his K rate
By Ray Flowers on Apr 29, 2012
Tall Boys – Yes, Danks should be fine. In a 10 tm lg, there is no need to drop him to add Mark Ellis. You can drop Danks if needed since it is so shallow, but Ellis is not a 10 tm option… even with 32 man rosters I’m not a huge fan.
By Tall Boys on Apr 30, 2012
Ray
I bought your guide and the only back-up2B-SS options avail in my league currently are, Tejada who also qualifies at SS,Getz, Izturis, Ellis, Carroll, Betancourt, Nunez, Bloomquist, need I say more.
My starters are: Tulo, Alexi Ramierez, Uggla and D. Murphy.
I like Ellis for the runs and because he’s batting in front of Kemp!
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Tall boys – How are you starting 2 second sackers and two shortstops? You have to start four?
Ellis is a decent add, but he’s nothing more than blah. Can’t expect him to score 120 runs or Kemp to continue his hot start, but Ellis is still a solid add.
By Tall Boys on May 1, 2012
yes Ray we start 2 players at each IF position, 5 OF, 1 U, 6 SP, & 3 RP with 7 bench spots for a 32 man roster in a 10 team league. It’s our way of trying to make it a deep league with only 10 teams.
I have Longoria who’s about to go on the DL so I no longer have to drop Danks, and I also have Figgins on my bench who qualifies for OF & 3B.
Now my question is whom do I add among these everyday players since I also have Daniel Murphy who I can play at every IF position except SS? Your thoughts or ranking on the talent below would be appreciated.
Ellis, Ruben Tajeda, Jamie Carroll, Morel,Bloomquist, or Chris Johnson?
By Ray Flowers on May 1, 2012
Tall Boys – Yikes, and yikes.
I already gave my thoughts on this –
“Ellis is a decent add, but he’s nothing more than blah. Can’t expect him to score 120 runs or Kemp to continue his hot start, but Ellis is still a solid add.”
Other option would be Chris Johnson.
By Tall Boys on May 1, 2012
Thanks Ray
I listen to you on XM and appreciate your comments there as well as here.
TallBoy