Player Profile: Brennan Boesch
March 8th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
The Tigers added Prince Fielder this offseason to team with Miguel Cabrera as the most dynamic lefty-righty duo in baseball. With those two aces in the third and fourth holes in the lineup, whomever hits at the top of the order should not only see a major increase in their runs scored total, they should also see plenty of pitches to hit given that pitchers will not want to face Cabrera or Fielder with the bases full of runners. The leadoff man figures to be Austin Jackson, who I profiled in Fowler vs. Jackson, while the #2 man in the order very well could be Brennan Boesch who is the subject of today’s piece.
Boesch hit .256 with 14 homers and 67 RBI as a rookie, and in year two the third round draft choice followed up those numbers with a .286 average, 16 homers and 54 RBI in 26 fewer at-bats. Clearly those aren’t numbers anyone is going to get too excited about (that may be part of the reason that over at Fleaflicker Boesch really hasn’t been added in that many leagues). Still, his spot in the batting order, if he does indeed hold on to the two hole, has some folks pretty darn excited about Boesch. Is that excitement warranted? Let’s take a look.
The most obvious issue with Boesch through two seasons is the Houdini act he’s pulled off in the second half of both seasons. I’m not talking about him pulling a rabbit out of his hat either. I’m talking about making himself vanish into thin air. Check out his two year pre/post All-Star break totals. It’s enough to make even someone with a strong constitution vomit.
2010 1st half: .342/.397/.593 with 12 homers and 49 RBI
2010 2nd half: .163/.237/.222 with two homers and 18 RBI
2011 1st half: .306/.360/.490 with 12 homers and 44 RBI
2011 2nd half: .219/.288/.368 with four homers and 10 RBI
Maybe we’ll look back on those numbers 10 years from now and get a good laugh, but for now those numbers scare the bejezus out of me. Here are the combined numbers.
1st half: .321-24-93-91-56 with a .911 OPS
2ns half: .182-6-28-33-6 with a .526 OPS
In the first half he’s Matt Holliday but in the second half he is Ramon Santiago. You have to be concerned with those two sets of numbers, at least until he goes out and does something in the second half of the season. Again, it might be a sample size issue – he could hit .300 with 15 homers in the second half this season – but for now the numbers are scarier than a Wes Craven flick.
Boesch is a player that struggles against right-handed pitching. Oh he’s not awful with a .254/.315/.425 slash line, but oddly, he is stronger against left-handed pitching (since he’s a left-handed batter) with a .319/.380/.471 slash line. Think of it like this. Versus righties he is Johnny Damon while he’s Dustin Pedroia versus lefties. Given that most hurlers are obviously right-handed, that’s another level of concern.
Some other facts.
Boesch doesn’t strike out very often, but since he also doesn’t walk a lot his career 0.41 BB/K ratio is just a teenie bit below the league average. Moreover, his OBP of .330 in his two seasons is only four points better than the league average during that time. It should also be noted that though he is looked at as a potential power bat in some circles that his .436 slugging percentage is only .010 points better than the league average for outfielders. In addition, Boesch doesn’t hit too many balls in the air, his GB/FB ratio of 1.12 is smack dab on the league average, while his 10.7 percent HR/F rate is only about a percentage point high. Boesch also has shown little stolen base speed with 12 steals in two seasons, an if he does indeed hit second in the Tigers’ order you can’t think he is going to be getting the green light very often with the two thumpers coming up. As for his ability to help in the batting average category he did show a .027 point improvement in year two, but through 892 at-bats he has hit just .269. Moreover, his .306 BABIP mark is just about league average, and so far he hasn’t been anywhere near the league average in the line drive category with a career mark of just 16.6 percent (the league average is 19-20 percent).
To summarize, Boesch has roughly league average ability in his BB/K rate, GB/FB ratio and HR/F ratio. He’s also produced, roughly, a league average batting mark, OBP and SLG. He also doesn’t steal many bases or hit that many line drives. In short, through two seasons, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to be anything other than a guy that’s going to need 550 at-bats to be a mixed league option because nothing he does stands out. If he can spend the entire year hitting second in the Tigers order that could all change. It could also change if he doesn’t turn into an absolute weakling in the second half of the season. However, pay close attention to the fact that, up until now, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to possesses on outstanding skill. Be careful of expecting too much from the third year player.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Tigers
By JDentel on Mar 8, 2012
Nice profile on Boesch. He’s been a guy I’ve been grabbing insanely late in drafts for nothing. He and Delmon Young tend to go undrafted in all the mocks I’ve done. Both will have solid Value in the Detroit lineup
By Eric on Mar 8, 2012
Ray this is by far the most deceitful article you have ever wrote. Not any where do you mention that Boesch Hit 2011 2nd half: .219/.288/.368 with four homers and 10 RBI in only 31 games played. Also if you would stop counting stats from the time Boesch hurt his thumb then you would have about 14 less games where here only had about 4 hits. Come on ray I know you love bashing the tigers but at least be factually correct.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Eric – Re: Boesch – nothing in the article is factually incorrect. Nothing. I don’t know how in the world you could write that. I guess you missed this… “it might be a sample size issue – he could hit .300 with 15 homers in the second half this season…”
Sorry if you disagree with my thoughts on Boesch, but don’t go saying I’m not being factually correct.
Oh, and I don’t bash Tigers – that is a factually incorrect statement from you. I’ve got Miguel Cabrera in my top-3 this year, Prince in my top-20, Verlander as my #2 SP, Delmon Young as a great late round pickup, an I tell people all the time to watch out for Max Scherzer who could explode for some dominating numbers this season.
By Craig Delseni on Mar 8, 2012
Ray, I looked but couldn’t find one… could you please do a Player Profile on BJ Upton? This guy is an enigma to me. 2nd round talent one year and 8th round the next. The guy doesn’t have much of a injury history, but he’s so damn inconsistent. Will he ever return to hit over .270? I can’t believe he’s still only 27! I hear Madden is batting him 2nd and expects a big year in 2012.
By Jay Noid on Mar 8, 2012
Ray,
While on the topic of the Tigers, do you think their suspect defense will be a detriment to Fister and/or Porcello?
Also, I am in an 11-team mixed roto league, 6×6. We have no CI or MI and only play three OFs (LF, CF, RF) and one UTL. I pick 11/11, and I think for the first 4 rounds (at least) I should be drafting the best hitter on the board. This is a pretty shallow player pool, so I am wondering how I should approach my draft and how I should value position scarcity in this format?
Thanks for your help, I truly enjoy your work.
By Mark on Mar 8, 2012
Ray, I was wondering if you could explain why you would pick Braun over Kemp? I have the first pick in an 8×8 (regular 5×5 with BB, OPS, and XBH)League. I know I’m splitting hairs here, but I prefer Braun hitting in the NL Central ballparks and am a little worried about Fielder being gone. Also Kemp had better overall numbers last year. Thanks!
By Jon on Mar 8, 2012
Hey Ray – quick stat question about the “Solds” stat you mention in the Guide. I’m thinking about replacing Saves with Solds in my 10-team mixed Roto league this year.
Here’s the argument I’m hearing against: in a 10-team league, it TOO much value to the RP player pool. When there are only 30 guys who can get a point in that category (saves) they are coveted at 10 teams a piece. If there are suddenly 60 guys (saves + holds) that can get a point in that category, that’s almost 6 per team, making quality RPs much more easy to find on the WW with only 10 teams.
What’s the solution in a 10-team league? Add more P spots? Let me know and thanks as ever!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Craig D – I’ll take up the cause, and write something on BJ Upton. Enigma is a good word.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Jay Noid – Fister/Porcello could be in big trouble with that Tigers infield defense. Not only poor, but bad range all over the place.
33 OFs, 11 players per position in your league.
In a standard 12 team, 5 OF, MI/CI league 60 OFs, 24 CI/MI
Your league really shouldn’t have any issues with position scarcity. You should be good to go.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Mark – It’s really about personal preference and history. Kemp was better last year cause of the steals, but he’s also slightly unstable when compared to Braun. Look at Braun’s numbers – year after year he is there. Braun is also the better bet to hit .320 this season. You can go Kemp, wouldn’t call you out for that, but give me Braun for the consistency he has shown.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Jon – Re: Solds My solution would be to do a deeper league. A 10 team mixed lg is just puny. Standard NL Only is 13 teams, and AL Only is 12 teams. How can you do a mixed leagues with fewer teams than that? In a 10 team league not using Solds is an argument I could accept. Still, I’d point out that some of the best RPs are middle relievers not the closers. If you really want to add the best arms, adding Solds would be a good way to go.
By Mark on Mar 8, 2012
Ray- I had Braun last year and was leaning towards drafting him first, but so many other places have Kemp first so I wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing anything. Thanks for your work at Baseball Guys and on Sirius, I really appreciate it. BTW, I proposed using “holds” for our league based on your recommendations.
By ginardo napoli on Mar 8, 2012
Ray, don’t get lost in the numbers. Watching too many numbers negates the fact that learning curves are exponential. Focus on a few essential numbers, because the rest is derivative of the few.
I used Fangraphs for the data. I compared 2010 to 2011.
In the last 2 seasons, thwBB% is steady from 7.8 to 7.4 and the SO% got less last year from 19.3 to 17.6. This means he is putting balls in play more often and isn’t hurting himself with a 7% walk rate.
Isolated power went up .159 to .175. So if he puts more balls in play, about 16% more are for extra bases.
Line drives went up 15.2 to 18.2. Ground balls went down 45.1 to 42.9. This means that not only is he putting the ball in play, but he is making solid contact. This explains the bump in Isolated power, and proves that it is legit.
Having a second half slump in the freshmen year is excusable. Getting the injury and thus ruining the second half is understandable.
There is too much upside here to ignore. Brennan hit 28 homers in 131 games in 2009. He played for Erie in the Northwest league. The power is legit.
And … even if he does fade, those first half numbers are consistent. I’ll take my chances he learns and prospers in that lineup and reaches 25 homers.
I think you know this too. I bet that Ray Flowers is secretly drafting Boesch.
I’m a bay area baseball nut too. So … its all good.
By BSchlitz on Mar 8, 2012
Hi Ray, I have a question for you that has nothing to do with this article. I started up a NL only auction keeper league 11 years ago. I created it without really knowing what the “true” or “right” way to adjust prices is. It has been a very successful league…all the owners love it and we have a long waiting list of interested owners to get in if a team opens up. The way we have been adjusting player prices has been like this. In year 1 I chose a fantasy baseball magazine called “Fantasy Sports” as our official price guide. Our players’ prices adjusted season to season by taking the average of the drafted price and the listed price in “Fantasy Sports” magazine. It worked well. A few years back, Fanball bought took over “Fantasy Sports” publication and we had to search for a new “price guide” for our price adjustments. I looked at many different magazines and internet sites. I found CBS sportline to have prices that were quite comparable to prices that our players were drafted for. We adopted CBS as our new “price guide” for our player adjustments. To this date of my post to you, CBS’ prices are very very low to what we have been seeing the past couple of years and now we are looking to adopt a new method for upcoming years for price adjustment. My big question(sorry for all the crap I posted leading up to the question) is what is the ideal way for price adjustment for keepers in an auction league? I have heard about increasing each player $5 each season and have proposed that to the league. Are there any other methods you would suggest? thank you for you time and I love the show. I’m going to be at the Dodgers/Giants spring training game St Pattys day. Any chance you will be out there?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
Ginardo N – I never said I wouldn’t draft Boesch, I just said be careful not to expect too much from him. In my Draft Guide I have Boesch highlighted as a player that should make a good value given the draft day cost — as long as it’s reasonable.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 8, 2012
BSchlitz – Were you aware that I used to work for Fanball for a couple of years? I hope you enjoyed those mags… putting out those four or five baseball ones each year was a blast.
Adding $5 a year to player values is fairly standard practice anymore. It’s pretty clear cut, everyone knows how to look at everything, and it rises quickly enough that you don’t get someone holding on to Albert Pujols for 9 years. I like that idea.
Haven’t planned out my Giants games this year — I should get on that shouldn’t I? I do konw I wont be t the game on the 17th… I had my trip to Arizona last weekend, and on the 23rd I’ll be headed out to NY for TOUT.
By jon on Mar 9, 2012
Hey Ray – make sure top say so if all of these off-topic posts get annoying! I truly admire your dedication to your readers.
Was wondering what your views are on K/9 vs. Ks in mixed leagues. Does it strange your draft strategy for pitchers at all? Obviously someone like Jansen gets a huge boost – but does it change how early you take elite K guys or which closers to value? thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2012
Jon – I always do my best to help everyone who asks. They don’t call me the hardest working man in fantasy sports for nothing
K/9 over Ks is good because it places all arms on an even playing field (You can now compare a 100 IP guys to a 180 IP guy). Obviously you need to make sure that you have an IP lower limit in place so avoid someone using just one bullpen arm, but overall it’s solid.
It doesn’t change my thinking too much. I’m a big fan or targeting skills anyway, so I’m not too interested in those guys that are posting 6.55 K/9 marks anyway. Might go a little heavier on bullpen arms of course.
By ginardo napoli on Mar 9, 2012
It’s all good Ray. Thanks for the shout out.
By ginardo napoli on Mar 9, 2012
But everyone calls me Gino.
By JP on Mar 9, 2012
Whats your take on drafting Yu Darvish? My league keeps three and one rookie so basically our first round is the fifth? Don’t know the amount of pitchers kept this year yet but could he be a “first” rounder in this scenario?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2012
JP – I dont think Darvish should be a first rounder for you in this setup. I’m not saying someone won’t take him there though. Given that you can only protect four guys year to year, I just can’t see how reaching to get Darvish is going to help you out long term.
By JP on Mar 10, 2012
ok thanks which rookie would you keep this year Pineda, Hosmer, Jennings or Lawrie?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2012
JP – I’d hold on to … Hosmer.
All of the youngsters you mentioned are keepable players, and all are generating a ton of interest. Hosmer would seem to me to be the most stable. He has the most at-bats, showed an ability to make adjustments as well. Jennings struggled in the end, and I think the hype for Lawrie is a bit much.
By Chris on Mar 10, 2012
Hey Ray, thanks for all the hard work you put in! I’ve psycho analyzed my fourth keeper in a 10 team roto league for close to a week now, and I still can’t decide between Uggla (position scarcity) Grienke, and Hamels. I’m already keeping Tulo, Kemp and Prince. Leaning towards a SP, but cant decide! Please help James Brown – hardest working man in fantasy!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2012
Chris – That’s right, I am the hardest working man in fantasy (maybe James Brown won’t mind my use of the moniker).
Uggla is a strong keeper of course, but in a 10 team lg. there are enough 2B’s that you don’t have to feel pressure if you pass. Given your amazing trio of keepers – Kemp, Tulo, Prince – I say you can go with a hurler. Both Hamels and Greinke are elite arms, but I’m going Greinke. His K/BB ratio is always amazing, and he’s just ever so slightly ahead of Hamels in my rankings.
By michelle smith on Nov 8, 2012
Where’s the part where it says he’s single? Brennan Boesch
By Ray Flowers on Nov 8, 2012
Michelle – My apologies for leaving that out. I get so focused on being single myself I forget to list that when I do profiles.