Player Profile: B.J. Upton
March 9th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
B.J. Upton is a borderline star in the fantasy game. If you take the season best marks from the elder Upton in the standard five offensive fantasy categories, you’d be staring at a guy with the following line: .300-24-82-89-44. Unfortunately, Upton also has hit a mere .257 in his career, has struck out at least 150 times in four of the last five years, and he always seems to be one play away from being benched for lackadaisical play. Currently ranked as the 20th outfielder according to MockDraftCentral, should Upton be going off draft boards earlier than his 64.5 ADP mark?
Let’s go season by season with Upton.
2007: He was one of nine players to go 20/20 with 80 RBI/Runs.
2008: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 85 runs.
2009: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 75 runs.
2010: He was one of two players to hit 15 HRs with 40 SBs and 85 runs.
2011: He was one of four players to go 20/30 with 80 RBI/Runs.
The point here should be obvious. As I mentioned out at the start of this piece, there are certainly issues with B.J., and in the fantasy game the biggest concern is certainly that poor batting average, but there is no denying that the guy can light up a fantasy score sheet. The thing that set apart Upton is that he posses solid power which he combines with elite speed. There’s simply no way around that. The past five years, here is what an “average” Upton effort has looked like: .257-17-69-84-37. For five years now Upton has nearly averaged a 20/40 season with 70 RBI and 85 runs. Those are big time fantasy numbers. Just ask yourself this question; how many guys in baseball can you say have a legitimate shot at 20 homers and 40 steals in 2012? It’s a pretty small group isn’t it?
As for his batting average, you’re just going to have to plan around that. Though he hit .300 in 2007, Upton has settled in as a guy who will struggle to get a hit every four at-bats (he’s been under .245 the past three years). What that means is that if you draft Upton you had better augment your club with a .300 hitter or two. The main reason that Upton isn’t going to hit much better than .250 is that he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats. Upton does take a walk though, even with all those punchouts he still owns a career 0.45 BB/K mark which is basically league average. Unless he suddenly figures it out at the dish, and the chance of that happening is pretty darn small at this point of his career, it just might be time to admit that Upton simply isn’t going to be someone who is going to help you in the batting average category.
In the fantasy game we like to down players for what they can’t do more than we prop them up for what they can do. Take the case of Michael Bourn. Everyone knows that he is the most consistent stolen base threat in the game, but most also look at him and say ‘he’s not a great fantasy option cause he never hits a homer and rarely knocks in a run.’ People fail to realize that his elite speed makes him at top-50 fantasy player every year. The same situation, at least partially, occurs with Upton. People get scared off by the poor batting average an overlook just how effective that Upton is on the base paths. Think of it like this. There are 10 men in baseball who have at least 130 steals the past four seasons. The only player in that group with 60 homers is Upton (he has 61). Not just that, only three men have 130 steals and more than 40 homers (the other two are Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford). Upton will never be truly elite in the fantasy game because of that lowly average, but if he were able to channel his 2007 self – the one that hit .300 – Upton could be a top-5 fantasy outfielder in 2012.
By the way, of you’re looking to do a mock draft, Fealflicker has you covered.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Bourn, Rays
By Craig Delseni on Mar 9, 2012
Thanks for the BJ Upton peice Ray! That was shockingly quick. I want so bad to take this guy in the 5th round of every draft, but I have visions of Mark Reynolds and hesitate to pull the trigger.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 9, 2012
Craig D – I’m on the case! j/k If I can get Upton in the 5th rd, sign me up.
By jon on Mar 9, 2012
Ray – in a league that counts AVG and OPS, do you have any issue with any 2 of Gonzo/Votto/Upton/Prince at picks 10 & 11? Logic in picking 2 straight 1Bs is a huge lift in OPS and AVG right from the get-go.
By Scott on Mar 9, 2012
Ray,
Thank you for the profile On BJ Upton. I’m in a 12 team 7×7 Roto keeper league. The additional 2 offensive catagories are total bases and hits. I’m picking 1st overall in our upcoming draft and the 3 best players available are BJ Upton $12, Curtis Granderson $17 and Carl Crawford $17. There is no limit on how many years we can keep the player and the players salary goes up $3 per year.Which direction would you go? Thanks Ray.
By Sean on Mar 9, 2012
Thanks Ray. My last hitting keeper comes down to BJ Upton and Micheal Morse. I was leaning Morse (Nats fan) but will now likely go Upton. Hoping to add Elvis Andrus with 1st pick and dominate Sb’s
By Kris on Mar 9, 2012
The only problem with BJ is you don’t know what his floor is. We know to expect a 245 ave but if he hits 220 like he did for a large part of last year he kills you.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2012
Jon – I cant see Votto falling that far. If he does, grab him. If you can team him with Fielder that would be large in your league, but I’d still lean to the all-around talents of CarGo. It’s not likely that his OPS will be much behind Fielder, and he should have a higher avg.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2012
Scott – Given the cost, I’d go Upton. In essence, you get him this year, and then the next two, for the same $ cost as you’d get either guy just for this year. All three are fine to take at the price listed though, so you could go in another direction if you want.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2012
Sean – Morse is a fine selection with his dual position elig, but I’m in agreement with your new plan – select Upton. If you combine him with Andrus, looking good in SB column for sure.
By jon on Mar 10, 2012
Thanks, Ray. I guess CarGo’s nagging injuries the last two years worry me a bit. Also, I kind of like the idea of impoverishing the top-heavy 1B tier near the end of Rd 1 by taking two in a row, especially since at picks #30/31 I can still probably get the likes of Holliday/McCutchen/Hamilton/Bourn (per the ranks in my platform) with those back to back picks.
Still: if some combo of Votto/Gonzo and Upton/CarGo are on the board then – you’d advise Votto/CarGo as the ideal?
By Tony in San Diego on Mar 10, 2012
Ray – Great piece. BUp has been one of my favorite mid round picks / $5-$15 buys over the last few years. I’ll take the hit on AVG because I always make sure to not let him drag me down. I target these power/speed guys as anchor.
Now, I just have to go onto all of my opponents computers and block this player profile! Damn you!
Thanks, buddy. Cheers!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2012
Tony in SD – My whole goal is to talk up all your fav players so everyone drafts them ahead of you. j/k
Glad you like the piece.
By Greg in Canada on Mar 12, 2012
Hi Ray,
great write up. for guys in american league only roto 5X5 , the risk is losing BJ as he could be moved to the NL and lost from your team. What are your thoughts of this happenning.
also what value do you see in trout this year and next. I can keep him for $7 TY and it increases by $5 every year after. Will he provide the value TY with an LA team with player log jams?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2012
Greg in Canada – The Rays have been talking about dealing Upton for two years now. There’s just no way to know with that game. You can play it safe an avoid him, but you could miss out on one hell of a player if you do.
Trout – Wrote about him in the Draft Guide – http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/
He has virtually no chance to open the year with the club – logjam, and ill health.
At this point, I’m not expecting him until June as a full time guy. He could earn $7 this year even with that limited PT. Should be fine next year at $12.