Punting Categories – A Good Idea?
March 12th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
People ask me all the time, ‘Ray, do you believe in punting?‘ My response, after some sarcastic remark about disliking the use of any kind of kicker in football, is that I do not believe in “punting” in fantasy baseball. What is “punting” and why am I against it?
By the way, how amazing would it be, after that lead in, if I didn’t even bother to address “punting?” Sometimes I just get this feisty feeling that comes over me an I feel like rebelling. Maybe that’s why my brother’s wife calls me sassy. Luckily for you, today isn’t one of those days.
What is “Punting?”
“Punting” a category means that you simply give it up (most often people refer to the saves category when they talk about punting). The idea is that a category, let’s take saves for example, can be pretty costly to add to a squad on draft day, and there is a lot of turnover at the position each year. Why not just skip worrying about saves and just try to rack up points in the other four pitching categories? People also talk about punting steals on offense, but the fact is you can “punt” any category if you really wanted to. The bottom line is that when you “punt” a category you simply do not worry at all about it, in essence eliminating it from consideration as a category you’re going to try score points in.
Is Punting a Viable Strategy?
Let’s break the strategy down using a concrete example that everyone can understand.
Let’s assume we’re talking about a 12 team mixed league.
In general, you need to accrue about 80 percent of the available point total to win a league. Given that there are 10 categories in the standard setup, this means a maximum point total for a 12 team league would be 120 points (10 categories, 12 points for first place finish in each, 11 for a second, 10 for a third etc.). If the league maximum is 120 points, and we’re targeting 80 percent of that number as the level we will likely need to achieve in order to win the league, then we will need our hypothetical team to record at least 96 points (obviously there are leagues where you might need 100 or more points to emerge the victor). Therefore, we have nine remaining categories – remember we are “punting” one of them – to earn 95 points (you get one point for finishing in last spot). Ninety-five divided by nine is 10.6, meaning we’re going to need to finish no lower than third place across the board in order to get to 96 points, but in reality we’re going to have to finish first or second in every other category. Can a team do that? Of course it can, but you also have to realize that by removing a category you’ve significantly reduced your margin for error. To state it again. We need 96 points in our model. We have only nine categories that we are targeting. Let’s say in one of our nine categories our team finishes in 7th spot. That would leave us with six points in that category. With our remaining eight categories we would need 89 points. That’s 11.1 points per category meaning we would have to nearly finish in first place in all other eight categories to win the league. Is it possible to win this way? Yes it is. But doesn’t it seem inherently risky?
I haven’t addressed a major component of this strategy that will have to work in order for you to win a league.
Will you select the right players to build your team around?
Last year if you had Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Stephen Strasburg as three of your anchors you would have been feeling pretty good about your team, right? By the end of the season you likely were puking if those were three of your building blocks. Will injury strike? Will players perform to expected levels? Are your expectations/projections for players accurate to begin with? Sometimes you can do everything right with your analysis and the players, for whatever reason, simply don’t perform. If you cut out a 10th of your playing field by removing an entire category, you’re cutting down the available pool that you are shooting to add points in. If you do that, you had better hope that your players perform up to par, or it could be a very long season.
Can you win a league “punting” a category? You certainly can. However, you had better be damn sure about the players you roster because you greatly increase your risk by completely ignoring an entire category in the fantasy game.
Did you get your copy of the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Carl Crawford, Categories, Hanley Ramirez, Punting, Punting Categories, Stephen Strasburg
By Rex Weddle on Mar 12, 2012
Good example was the punting of saves by Ambrosius/Childs in AL LABR. And, for that matter, the NL, if Jansen never sees 9th inning work.
By Tim on Mar 12, 2012
Ray-
Agree with most of what you say, but would like to add a few variables I believe could make this a conceivable strategy: (1) Size of your league and (2) number/mixture of categories. Standard 5×5 Roto with 10-12 teams, however, I’m not punting any categories.
That said, my big money league is a 16-team mixed roto, daily lineup (5×5) with k/9 instead of ks, one bench spot and innings minimum of 750 and maximum of 1375. Your 80% rule is spot-on and I follow that, but I punt the ‘Wins’ category as I believe they are the hardest category to predict outside the top 20 pitchers. I grab all hitters without previous injury history and 3 top line closers with my first 10 picks. Continue to add offense, find one more closer, grab an SP or two who won’t kill my ERA, WHIP or K/9 and get me innings to the minimum (last year was Shields in the 19th and Cueto in the 20th; occassionally streamed based on matchups) and then instead of bounce-back or high-upside players, I get a few high end holds/non-save relievers in the late rounds (Clippard, Pestano, Bastardo, Uehara, Romo, Robertson, etc) who on occassion pick up a save or W and I’ve got 65 points (81.25%) for pitching categories. I also open up an extra bench spot for a hitter not utilizing all 3 SP spots (3 SP, 3 RP, 3 AP)
Grabbing a hitter instead of an SP in most cases helps in the hitting categories as does making sure on the Monday and Thursday games I have a full roster and when guys are on a rest-day I have one of my bench guys to replace them. Finish 1st – 4th in the hitting categories, make a trade in August for one of my relievers for any help I need in an offensive category. Add that with my pitching points, usually puts my near or at the top without fail.
Bottom line, I think it is a viable strategy if things such as the size of your league and category mix allow for it, as well as a little bit of luck and as you suggested, drafting the right guys.
Side note: if anyone was drafting Strasburg last year in a non-keeper as their anchor, they didn’t deserve to win anyways.
Love your stuff!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2012
Tim – Good points. There are always exceptions to the rule, and you bring up some instances that certainly could be beneficial to this strategy working. However, it takes skills/luck to make such a strategy work as you are aware, so the piece was more just a general look at the idea of punting. For the majority of fantasy baseball players I still hold the position that it’s not necessarily a viable strategy – though of course that doesn’t apply to everyone an every situation as you stated.
By wesley on Mar 12, 2012
Hey ray, i want to buy your draft guide. I was wondering if you fluctuate your rankings alot? cause if you do i would wait til next week, cause my 1st draft isnt til march 24
thanks
wes
By Craig Delseni on Mar 12, 2012
Ray – do you have a source or a tool you use to identify players auto-ranked too low for various website ques? I searched the World Wide Web using boolean operators but could not find one.
In a recent Yahoo “money” league I nabbed Carl Crawford in the 9th, Johan Santana in the 17th, and Adam Dunn in the 18th due to the horrible que ranking.
I think this would be a great topic for you to disect as only Ray Flowers can.
Thanks a bundle,
Craig
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2012
Wesley – The Guide rankings are updated daily. I’m never going to move Miguel Cabrera from #2 at 1B to #13, but some guys can change based on news (Carpenter dropped like 15 spots with injury news), all depends. Pretty stable for the most part.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2012
Craig D – The only way to find guys ranked too low on systems is to go through the systems and find the guys yourself. It’s one of those little secret types things. If people pointed out all the low ranked “bargains”, then where would be the fun of finding some of the rankings “mistakes” that sites make.
By Pat on Mar 13, 2012
Ray-
Thanks for the article. Good, quick read with sound logic. I wanted your opinion (and reasoning) on if this still applied on a weekly H2H 5×5 league. I’ve seen different folks punt saves, AVG, and SPs in general, all with varying levels of success. From where I’m sitting, I’d think the H2H format allows for creative ways to win. Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012
Pat – I greatly dislike H2H setups. It’s so unnatural for the world of baseball. My thoughts here –
http://baseballguys.com/2011/09/21/mailbag-september-21-2011/
Therefore, about 99 percent of what I write has nothing to do with H2H. Unfortunately, in that unnatural setup, punting a category can lead to success, but you have to realize, that it’s a totally different setup than 5×5 leagues which is the only reason it can work.
By Reed on Mar 13, 2012
Ray — you say that head to head is unnatural in the world of baseball. I don’t completely disagree, though I do play H2H, as I think it promotes the need for consistency, which is valuable in real life baseball and so should be valuable in fantasy baseball
However, that position seems inconsistent with your promotion of two catcher formats. If the intention is to be natural, then why artificially insert an additional player, at an arbitrary position, into the lineup? same goes for 5 OFs, CI, MI, etc.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012
Reed- Baseball is meant to play played over six months, not over 26 weeks. Cutting it down to h2h weekly setups causes people to do odd things like starting a 2-start Jake Westbrook over a 1-start Stephen Strasburg. Just don’t like that at all.
The reason there are added spots in fantasy – two catchers, 5 outfielders – is to get deep enough into the player pool in order for everyone not to have all star teams. Think of it like this.
There are 30 MLB teams. That means 30 starting catchers and 90 starting outfielders.
If you are in a 12 team fantasy league with 1 catcher that’s 12 catchers, and 3 outfielders that 30 OFs.
If you wanted to do a 30 team fantasy league, then by all means do one catcher and three outfielders. However, we all know that no one does leagues that deep. Don’t know about you, but to me there really is no point in doing a league if I know that all three of my outfielders are all-stars.
By nokwurst on Mar 13, 2012
Hey Ray,
Love your stat-based spin on determining pros and cons on ideas such as punting. Spot on.
One tiny correction though: even when punting, you still get 1 pt so you would only need 95 pts from the other 9 cats. Still an avg of 10.5/cat though, so same conclusion (imho.)
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2012
Nokwurst – Great point. I will ammend the piece. Thanks for pointing out my minor oversite.
By Joebagels on Mar 17, 2012
For some crazy reason I added a H2H 7×7 league to my others. Adding Walks & Total Bases to Bats and Losses and holds to pitching.I’m looking for a strategy. I have the guide and use it for my Roto.
Bats have only 1C and 3 OFs as well as 3DH’s instead of CI & MI
Pitching 2SP, 2RP and 2P that can be moved daily. there is a 30inn min required each week.
We only have 30 moves for the year so streaming is tough.
since I only need 8 CATs to win, Do you think Punting AVG or maybe SB’s is a good move? Should I just load up on OPS Type guys like Reynolds, Stanton etc, collect all the counting stats then just get a couple of decent SPs who wont hurt Ratios along with mostly top Relievers? Any advice on this would be helpful. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2012
JoeBagels – Just cause the Guide is 5×5 related, don’t think it won’t help in a h2h setup. It certainly will. The Guide shows you how to evaluate talent. That’s a key in very league. It also has two articles on middle relievers which should help. In the pen, addition of holds only strengthens the idea that you should target best arms/talent. They’ll give you holds an a chance at saves as well.
I don’t like to punt categories, just don’t. If you want to punt steals, I’m ok with that. I don’t want to punt average, arencebia/dunn/reynolds like – but that’s your call.
By Andrew Manning on Apr 7, 2012
In roto, it makes little to no sense to punt a category, but in head to head, I think it is actually the way to go. In 5X5 H2H, I will almost always punt saves. If there are more categories, it makes even more sense to punt them because they cost too much to acquire, and they don’t translate to the other categories well. Get 2-3 stud starters, play the match ups with everyone else, win K and W just about every week, ERA and WHIP sometimes, and bludgeon your opponent with offense.
In roto, I simply take the “don’t pay for saves” approach and pick them up as they come into the league. I’m sure there are other philosophies on how to approach saves, but closers are so inconsistent from year to year that it’s just not worth the risk to reach for a Craig Kimbral or John Axford.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2012
Andrew – You are correct. Punting categories becomes a more viable strategy the more categories your league scores. Also, it makes more sense in H2H leagues where you are only interested in a week of games.
By JoeM on Apr 11, 2012
Figured id continue my question here on the appropriate thread (punting saves, Balfour for sale)
I think I get the point of this write up when it comes to drafting. But I think it may be different post draft. Let’s say you drafted 3 closers, 1 goes down with injury and one loses his role. Now you’re left with one closer and will most likely end up in the bottom 2-3 in saves.
Which route would you take here?
1- Make a move to get another closer and stalk the waiver wire waiting to get your hands on someone splitting or taking over a closer role (which definitely comes along throughout the season)
2- Punt saves and trade that one closer you have for a player that will help with categories that will probably make a difference (obviously not a guarantee due to a player not playing up to expected)?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 12, 2012
JoeM – Problem with switching the plan mid steam – it’s switching mid stream. If you drafted that way its one thing. You chose these players to do that. However, know you’ve chosen “these” players to do “this.” Can you have success doing that? You can go in either direction, but remember, if you punt totally, you’re going to have to dominate in the other categories, and that’s hard to do if you weren’t planning for that all along.
By Derrick on Jan 3, 2013
Your argument is well received and definitely harder to do in a Roto. My league is a 6×6 Dynasty, so I need to focus on winning 11 other categories weekly, which I feel that I can do.
Here is my reasoning for punting saves this season – I won the league last year and I am currently the favorite to repeat purely based on the roster. I’ve gotten better this offseason by trading for Vogelsong who is $2 with one year remaining, Corey Hart who is $12 with one year remaining and VMart came off the DL.
I have tremendous values of VMart for $3.75, Bourn $9, Pagan $2, Vogelsong $2, Vargas $2, Masterson $3, Soriano $2, Perez $4, Bumgarner $8 who are paired with higher-priced players such as Votto, Cano, Butler, Choo, Aramis, Verlander and Weaver. I also own the Free Agent rights to Shields, McCarthy, Downs, Balfour, LaRoche and Melky.
This team is definitely built to compete.
So where’s the problem you ask? Aramis, Bourn, Pagan, Hart, Soriano, Putz, Vogelsong, Masterson, Romero and Vargas ALL have expiring contracts. After this season, I will not have the cap flexibility to retain them. My goal was to trade all three of my closers and even the RFA rights to Balfour for draft picks, because I am in “win now” mode, though I would like to start rebuilding, and I firmly believe that I can win while trading away those three for picks to start the rebuilding process.
Make any sense?
By Ray Flowers on Jan 3, 2013
Derrick – The more cats you have, the easier it is to punt one.
I don’t think you can be in win now made and start rebuilding. It’s very difficult to do both. Me? I don’t even know if I’ll be alive in 12 months, so I tend to focus more on winning in the short term than the long term stuff. Doesn’t mean I don’t look forward, I just focus more on the short than long in keepers. You can also try to build a staff of middle relievers on the cheap cause every year about 10 guys come out of nowhere to get ya 15+ saves. All depends on who you get back I guess if you go dealing.