SWIP: 2012 – Starters
March 15th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.
PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?
S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched
Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:
Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.
SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).
EXAMPLE
Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP
Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.
Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).
Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.
.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.
Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.
34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP
So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.
SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45
Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.
2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP
Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.
Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)
0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).
0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.
0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.
0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).
0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).
0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.
Some names that stood out, for good or bad.
0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.
0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.
0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.
0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).
0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.
0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.
Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: CC Sabathia, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Edwin Jackson, Gio Gonzalez, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Caiin, Mike Leake, Roy Hallday, Starting Pitchers, SWIP, Ted Lilly, Tim Lincecum, Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke
By Jeff on Mar 15, 2012
Ray Wish you look when you square off on your duel with Jason Collett
By jon on Mar 15, 2012
Thanks for the SWIP stats, Ray. I’m super high on Greinke this year – but do you think pick #31 in a 10-team Roto mixed draft that counts K/9 instead of K is too high to take him? He’s very unlikely to be there when come back around at #50. I usually wait on pitching but perhaps Greinke is worth it as an ace in this kind of league, especially if I can take 3 hitters before him.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2012
Jon – Way too early on Greinke. If you’ve read my stuff, you know I dont go pitcher early, so I’m certainly not going to support taking Greinke 31 overall in a 10 team draft.
By jon on Mar 15, 2012
Yeah, I just thought the K/9 would make a difference. Could still probably get Lester at 51, Wainwright at 71, or JJ at 91 and then we’re sort out of ace territory (though Waino/JJ obviously with huge risk). Looks like it’s all bats for me in Rds 1-6 at least!
By Bigs on Mar 15, 2012
Ray I just got the draft guide . Nice work . Im in a 12 team head to head keeper lg. We use 7 pitchers a game. 1 pt per K , 10 pts per victory , -1 per BB ect. We keep 9 players . Im keeping cano , miggy , longoria, tulo , kemp , J,upton, shields ,and hammels. The top 39 pitchers on your rankings list, with the exception of wandy rod , are being kept. would you keep Holliday ,Gio ,garza , or ian kennedy ? I know you prefer hitting but where so many P are being kept would you still go with Holliday ?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2012
Bigs – You can draft Wandy, but realize that unless he gets dealt, wins aren’t going to be easy for him to come by.
You can keep any one of those three arms, but I’m comfortable taking Holliday and then draft pitching. if you’re not, then keep one more SP arm. Garza or Gio would be my choice.
By G on Mar 16, 2012
How about just minusing the BB/9 from the K/9 Ratio to give you the same, less complex result lol
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
G- Not sure how using BB/9 and K/9 would be “less complex” than the current SWIP setup. The whole point of SWIP is that it’s very simple because it follows the same format as WHIP.
By JDW on Mar 16, 2012
Ray,
I know you advise against taking pitching early, but in our 12 team H2H 6X6 I’m finally gonna experiment with that whole taking pitchers EARLY approach. It will likely be a disaster, I know, but I look forward to desperately scrambling for hitters on the wire. Problem is, I have the #1 overall pick so when I get to the turn I’m taking picks 24&25 when Lee, Halladay, Verlander and Kershaw will be gone. So, yes! I’m taking Grienke at #24 over Felix, Timmy, Weaver and Haren – I like him THAT much! Your numbers only help to solidify my idiocy. Though I’ll also be taking another top arm with pick #25! No question for you. Just confessing my Grienke love after reading this great and informative article.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
JDW – Let me know how the SP EARLY plan unfolds. Good luck with it.
By JDW on Mar 25, 2012
Mr. Flowers – I listened to (almost) the entire TOUT wars mixed draft on Sirius. So very cool! Love your team but worry for you at 3B. I know you will figure it out. We had our draft tonight-a serious 12 team, 8 year old league w/ really smart blokes. I went pitching heavy. So, here are the results of the experiment in a 6×6 Roto league with Sv/holds,K/BB and OPS.
I had the first pick and surprised by taking Bautista because of his 3B/RF eligibility (we play real positions (1B,2B,3B,SS,RF,CF,LF Util,Util with 5SPs/5RPs/4Bench)
SP-Felix(24) Greinke(25)Price(48)Bumgarner(49) Romero(73)Josh Johnson(96)Liriano(217)
RPs-Papelbon(72)Hanrahan(121)Street(145)Venters(169)B.Myers(193)Greg Holland(240)R.Soriano(288) My pitching is SOLID even though I REACHED almost every time. And obviously b/c I devoted a lot of picks. But the offense may surprise you…!
By JDW on Mar 25, 2012
C-Arencibia(265)
1B-Kendrys Morales(144)
2B-Kenrick(97)
3B-Bautista(1)
SS-Z.Cozart(264)
RF-Duda(216)
CF-Chris Young(120)
LF-A.Soriano(192)
Util-Jesus Montero(168)
Util-Delmon Young(241)
So-here’s my point. I should dominate pitching – no matter how “deep” it is because the rest of pitching is stratified throughout the rest of the league. My offense is definitely suspect, but I just need it to compete in 1 or 2 categories each week to win the head to head. We limit moves, so streaming is not a concern (25 moves before and after the all-star game). So, offense, while sketchy, is not as thin as people say. It’s already been thinned out by the rest of the league by everyone drafting offense. My thinking is simple – win 7 of 12 or work a tie and I’m good in h2h. Or, put it this way – if you could have 8 or so players in the top 50 on offense, you’d do that. Why not with pitching? I have ten guys who could finish in the top 50. No offense drafted can make that assumption. I’ll let you know how it goes. Pax!
By Chris on Mar 25, 2012
If I only have Prado at 3rd in a 10 team roto league, should I trade Melky for Trumbo and stream 3B daily on matchups when Mark gains eligibility? Already have Kemp, Werth, Choo, Fowler & Rios in OF.
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2012
JDW – Glad you enjoyed listening to TOUT WARS on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Think you have my team mixed up though – I have Pablo Sandoval at third, so I’m in fine shape there.
Building around pitching is hard. First, in a H2H, some weeks you may have 8 starts, others 13. Those weeks you don’t have a ton of starts, your pitchers aren’t going to carry you. If you say – well, I’ll just get guys of waivers to help – then why waste picks on SPs at draft? Also, pitchers have a bad day it ruins a week (2.1 IP, 8 ER). A hitter has a bad couple of days (0-for-8) he can still come back and have four good games to finish the week at 10-for-28. Third, you cannot predict wins, so that causes one of the pitching categories to also be totally unpredictable.
I wish you luck, but that offense leaves a lot to be desired. You have no speed. Montero is an unknown. Duda merely solid. Cozart overrated, Morales hasn’t played in 1.5 yrs, and Arencebia may not hit his weight. Let me know how it ends up.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2012
Chris – It is NOT certain that (a) Trumbo can handle third base well enough defensively to play there and (b) Trumbo will play every day. I’d keep Prado who will play every because he is a more complete player.
By JDW on Mar 25, 2012
Phew!! Glad to see Sandoval at 3rd! I DID miss that. I think the online spreadsheet initially omitted it.
Love the Cruz led outfield and the Lee/Felix combo! Studs all! Hope you kill it this year in TOUT. And really appreciate your advice. Fear you are right in your thoughtful critique. Now wishing I was sending you a mock draft result that I could reconsider!
I’m pretty savvy on the waiver wire so all is not lost. Will definitely let you know how the experiment fared and will keep up with and will be rooting for you in TOUT!
By Chris on Mar 25, 2012
Trumbo only needs 5 starts or 10 games to be 3B eligible. Isn’t it worth the risk to get a second 3B and stream him with Prado in a daily league? Who would u rather give up for Trumbo – Morales, Melky Cabrera or neither?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2012
Chris – How long will it take Trumbo to get 5 or 10 games at 3b? Don’t forget the team has Alberto Callaspo who is a pretty fair ball player. Plus, what happens when/if Morales can’t go? Gotta figure Trumbo would play DH on those days further delaying Trumbo’s 3B elig.
Trumbo had a strong rookie year, but don’t overlook that his OBP was HIDEOUS at .291. Second, his BB/K mark was less than half the big league average at 0.21. He also had a poor 16 percent line drive rate. The power is legit, but there are holes.