SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers
March 16th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.
* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.
.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.
The league average in 2011 was 0.45.
Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.
0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.
0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.
0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.
0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.
0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.
0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.
0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.
0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.
0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.
0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.
0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.
0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.
Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.
1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.
1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.
1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.
1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.
1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.
0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.
0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.
0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.
0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.
0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.
0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.
0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).
0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.
0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.
0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?
For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, David Robertson, Erik Bedard, Felipe Paulino, Francisco Liriano, Greg Holland, Jair Jurrjens, Jake Peavy, Javy Guerra, Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Jonathan Niese, Jonathan Papelbon, Kenley Jansen, Koji Uehara, Luke Gregerson, Marco Estrada, Matt Capps, Neftali Feliz, Rafael Betancourt, Rex Brothers, Scott Baker, Sergio Romo, Sergio Santos, SWIP, Tom Gorzelanny, Tommy Hanson, Vinnie Pestano
By nokwurst on Mar 16, 2012
Hey Ray,
18 team mixed 5×5, we start 2SP, 2RP, and 3P.
I have Soria & Street as my closers, w/ Jansen for the ratios/upside.
I was offered Rios & Figgins for LaHair & Jansen. I would then drop P. Alvarez & prob pickup D. Hernandez (Ari).
I could use the speed, but I don’t wanna overpay for it. Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
Nokwurst: I have little faith in LaHair, though in an 18 tm lg he is worth monitoring. Jansen – love the arm obviously. Rios/Figgins are two guys I like who are cheap this year. I don’t have a problem doing this deal since I’m not a fan of LaHair holding off Rizzo for too long.
By jon on Mar 16, 2012
Raymond! Think pick 51 is too early for Youkilis or M. Young in 10-team OPS/AVG league? Guys just hid doubles and get on base when healthy.
I cannot tell you how much I dig this SWIP stat!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
Jon – I say it all the time, it’s about constructing the best team. Who has been drafted. Who have you drafted. What are you trying to accomplish. You can look at ADP numbers if you want a yes or no:
http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/report_adp.jsp
For me, a 10 team lg is so shallow, I’m certainly not going to stress it. I’d rather take Youkilis at #51.
By Jeff on Mar 16, 2012
Ray – great job on this guide; way better than the magazines I usually purchase!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
Jeff – Thanks for the props my friend. I’m glad to hear that my hard work at putting together a solid draft guide resulted in a positive product for you to enjoy.
By Jon on Mar 16, 2012
Yeah – Jeff’s not kidding. The guide is so great. I’m definitely pleased with my purchase! Pretty sure Youk won’t last until 71 in my league, so I may go 51.
By Eric on Mar 16, 2012
Ray David Robertson is very under rated but very useful in a league with holds
By Jason on Mar 16, 2012
Ray,
As I’m preparing for my draft, I was sent a trade offer involving keepers and picks. It’s a 12-team 6×6 categories league. I was offered Bourn in the 9th round for my 13th round pick. Here are my keepers are as of right now (don’t laugh):
Asdrubal (11th)
J. Garcia (12th)
C. Lewis (14th)
H. Kendrick (15th)
Y. Molina (18th)
Should I pull the trigger? If so, who should Bourn take the place of in my current keeper list?
Thanks for all your hard work to make our fantasy sports that much better!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
Jason – I think Bourn as a 9th round pick is solid value, I’d be all over that. Guys I would drop… Probably Lewis in 14th. I like Lewis, but I bet you would be able to get him back at that level, if not later.
By Doug on Mar 16, 2012
Hi Ray,
Informative article with SWIP and a great addition to your valuable draft kit. I’m looking at trading Dan Hudson for Carl Crawford. I already have decent OF’ers and Pitchers. Just looking at this straight up to get Crawford’s upside. What’s your confidence in him this year?
Thanks!
Doug
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
Doug – Before the news came out about his wrist, I was still really high on Crawford. Now, not so high, but the good news is everyone is scared so his draft day cost is pretty low. If it was me, I’d deal Hudson to get CC. Anyway you might be able to get him for even less of an arm if you play up the injury?
Glad you like SWIP and the Draft Kit.
By Chris on Mar 16, 2012
5×5, 12 team mixed.
Is Kinsler worth keeping (surrender 2nd rd pick)
or David Ortiz (16th) or Derek Lowe (23); Can’t decide if I should keep any or all. Please help.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2012
Chris – No need at all to keep Lowe. Ortiz you certainly can keep, as long as you dont mind him clogging up your UT spot.
Kinsler is the only elite option you have here. However, answer likely comes down to how many players you protect.
By Chris on Mar 16, 2012
thanks for the quick and informative response. You are the best on XM.
By Mark on Mar 16, 2012
Ray- I’m in a 10 team 8×8 (traditional 5 plus ops, xbh, bb’s) and am taking Braun first overall. My question is with my next 2 picks, how worried are you about Reyes injury history? I wasn’t really considering him b/c I assumed he’d be gone, but I’ve done 2 mock drafts and he’s been there for both. I took Reyes and Texeira in one and Reyes and Kinsler in the other. The other option I would be considering is McCutchen.
By pwheeler on Mar 17, 2012
Hi,
Love the guide and the uber-breakdown of peripherals etc.
Is LaHair a good last round pick up?
Or is he just keeping the position warm for an early season, inevitable call up of Rizzo?
If so, is Rizzo a good bet to hit in the 15-70-70 range this year?
What’s Lehair’s expected range if Rizzo is triple A marinated for another year?
Finally, Y. Alonso thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2012
Mark – I would not take Kinsler and Reyes. With both having injury filled backgrounds, that’s a tremendous about of risk. Tough to take both. In your setup, I’d favor Kinsler slightly. Tex is a 30-100 lock, so he’s very stable at that point, and everyone knows I’m a big fan of McCutch.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2012
PWheeler – LaHair as a last round pick is fine. I wouldn’t expect him to hold the job all year though, so you could likely do better. Rizzo’s line all depends on playing time. If he spends half the year in the minors, no chance he’ll reach any of the numbers you mentioned. If I have to guess, I’d say Rizzo is up in June, but it’s a total guess.
By jon on Mar 17, 2012
Ray – I’ve got my first 16-team 5×5 mixed draft tonight at 9.00 and am using your guide to shepherd me through. Any specific advice for positions or cats to target early in a league that deep?
I know I gotta look out for runs but what about the idea, for instance, of waiting on OF since there are 3 starters on every team and they’re therefore easier to find than other positions, of which only 1 starts on every team?
By Mark on Mar 17, 2012
Thanks Ray I appreciate the advice!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2012
Jon – 16 teamers are tough. Gotta be well balance. Help me out here: are you using the standard 14 hitters and nine pitchers in your starting lineup?
If so, you don’t want to wait too long on outfielders. 16 teams starting 5 OFs = 80 starting outfielders. There are only 90 starting outfielders in baseball, and clearly some of them aren’t very good.
You need to build a balanced squad. I’d focus early on filling categories not worrying too much about position. However, you’re going to want to do your best to get your starters at 1b, 3b, 2b, ss in the first 10 rounds or so. I’d look to have 2 solid SPs in my first 10 picks to, and it might be smart to get a RP when they start going off the board.
By jon on Mar 17, 2012
Yeah Ray, we’re starting all the positions, 2 Catchers, MI, CI, 5 OFs, 1 UTIL. Plus 5 Bench and 2 DL. Also 9P (no SP or RP designation).
I’m looking at 1B at #6 (someone super safe form the Top 5) and then an OF at #27, plus a 3B or 2B at pick #38. Then take an arm with one of my next 2 picks.
By dan on Mar 17, 2012
Ray, 12 team mixed 5×5 keeper league. keeping napoli (8th) and avila (22nd). need a 3rd keeper. do i trade a late round pick for j upton (4th), bourne (8th) or bumgarner (12th) or, just keep holland in the 20th?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2012
Dan – Not sure what you are asking. If all you have to do is to offer a draft pick to get any of the three guys you listed, then by all means do it.
By Tom on Mar 17, 2012
Great stuff Ray – to further validate SWIP though, do you have examples of some of guys who had flakey one year, only to regress big time the next…where a careful look at his SWIP would have predicted that regression?