ABA 2011: A Review
March 20th, 2012 | by Ray Flowers |
Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.
ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP
The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.
Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.
Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine
With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.
2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP
1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.
1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.
1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.
1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.
1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.
1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).
1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.
1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.
1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.
2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.
2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?
90-160 INNING HURLERS
1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.
1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.
1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.
1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.
2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.
2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.
LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS
1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.
1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.
1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.
1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.
1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.
1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.
1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.
1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.
1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).
2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.
For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.
Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Aroldis Chapman, Brandon League, Brandon McCarthy, Brandon Morrow, Bronson Arroyo, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Craig Kimbrel, Danny Duffy, Doug Fister, Edinson Volquez, Gavin Floyd, Greg Holland, Henry Rodriguez, Homer Bailey, Huston Street, Javy Guerra, Jim Johnson, Joe Nathan, John Axford, Johnny Cueto, Jonny Venters, Jsutin Verlander, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Phil Humber, Roy Halladay, Scott Baker, Sergio Romo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Vance Worley, Zack Greinke
By Jon on Mar 20, 2012
Hey Ray – never seen this stat. Looks like it could be very useful. Which two would you most like for your first 2 OFs in a 10-team mixed, 5×5 league with OPS and AVG (considering injury risk too): McCutch, Holliday, Hamilton, Bourn, Cruz, Pence. thanks!
By Callaway on Mar 20, 2012
This article makes me glad I have Kershaw.
Ray, I’ve been listening almost every day to the Drive. I heard you, Kay and Kyle talking about how deep SS is this year and decided to wait as late as possible to take one in my draft. I ended up with Peralta in the final round b/c you spoke of how steady he is year in and year out. I’m in a 10-team CBS points league, so there are quite a few options available to me. Would you drop JP and grab any of the following or am I just having buyer’s remorse: Y. Escobar, Hardy, Dee Gordon, Furcal, or A. Escobar? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012
Jon – Since you use OPS, really dings Bourn. Go Holliday and McCutchen as the top-2.
By Callaway on Mar 20, 2012
This article makes me glad I have Kershaw.
Ray, I’ve been listening almost every day to the Drive. I heard you, Kay and Kyle talking about how deep SS is this year and decided to wait as late as possible to take one in my draft. I ended up with Peralta in the final round b/c you spoke of how steady he is year in and year out. I’m in a 10-team CBS points league, so there are quite a few options available to me. Would you drop JP and grab any of the following or am I just having buyer’s remorse: Y. Escobar, Hardy, Dee Gordon, Furcal, or A. Escobar? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012
Callaway – Peralta is really stable, no doubt, but as a starter in 10 team lg, likely stretching him (I have him at 14th in my latest rankings). He’s more of a middle infield option in a league this shallow. And to answer your question, yes, I have three of those shortstops ranked ahead of Peralta. For more info, check out my Draft Guide:
http://baseballguys.com/category/2012-fantasy-draft-guide/
By Eric on Mar 20, 2012
Hey Ray–
I asked you a few weeks ago about trade offers for Jeremy Hellickson (who by my calculation comes in at an ABA of 1.75). You recommended I move him for Chris Young, but now I have that offer on the table as well as an offer of Michael Young, JJ Hardy and Antonio Bastardo all for Hellickson. Your thoughts on the trade, given that I have excellent pitching depth and needs at 1B and SS? This is my first year in a keeper league so I’m having trouble evaluating deals for young players…
Thanks
By Steve on Mar 20, 2012
Great work as usual. Very informative. I will def use ABA as another way of forecasting my pitchers. Thanks. Are there any pitchers with low ABA’s who also have high ERA’s or is that almost impossible?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012
Eric – At the bottom of the column on ABA there is a link to a PDF that has all hurlers listed who tossed 40 innings. You are right about Hellickson at 1.75.
Hellickson for Bastardo, Hardy, Young
This is a move for now. Five years from Now Hellickson could be a star, Young and Hardy possibly retired, and Bastardo an afterthought. However, for 2012, it’s a strong move. Young should hit .300. Hardy has a chance to be a top-10 SS (more likely top-15 but still). Bastardo really nothing but a throw in for 5×5 leagues, but still an impressive arm. Since you need help at the corners, I’d be obliged to do this. Just make sure you have other young arms to build around.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2012
Steve – At the bottom of this post is a link to all the hurlers who tossed 140 innings. You should be able to find a ton of players there if you spend some time with the list.
By Bigs on Mar 20, 2012
Hey Ray. What do you think of mike minor ? My league is turning into a dynasty league after this season. Do you like him for the future ? What type of pitcher do you think he will develop into ?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Bigs – Mike Minor has a bright future. Even when he struggled last year, the seeds for success were there. Strong K- rate, decent walk ratio. Was marred by a 27.4 percent line drive rate that has no chance of being repeated it was so high.
By Bill on Mar 21, 2012
Ray,
Loved the ABA article and idea. I will be proposing it as a WHIP alternative at our league Constitutional Convention (on line)after the season.
Auctioned this past weekend, relied heavily on your dollar values with some tweaks to adjust for the league using OBP instead of BA, and came away with what I think are the makings for a contending team.
A few quick questions on potential trades and pick ups.
14 team league/25 players team/OBP replaces BA, otherwise standard roto stats.
I ended up being OF short. I am using BJ Upton, Bautista, and Duda, but had planneed on Bautista (keeper) at 3rd. I got Freese late when I saw how things were playing out, and I think I have enough power (Santana, Pena, Uggla, Dunn in addition to the above) that I can absorb Freese as a 15-20 HR guy at 3B as long as hey continues to hit and collect RBI’s in that nice line up spot.
Nonetheless, I would prefer a stronger OF that would let me shift Bautista back to 3rd.
A couple possibilities: I think I can trade Uggla for Jason Werth, and a yet to be determined pitcher. Werth would be the centerpiece though. My initial thought is that is not enough value and I can get more for Uggla at some point.
I also have three closers (Betancourt, Hanrahan, Farnsworth) anc ould possibly move Hanrahan and Kipnis for Zobrist, who I could play in the OF with Uggla moving to second. That deal I like (though it may not be accepted).
I could also stand pat for a while and see how bay/Luke Scott/Duda pan out and try for waiver pick ups.
Available OF eligible guys include Hesisey, A Huff, Lillibridge, T Snider, and Ben Revere. C Davis is also available. I would likely drop Murphy if I picked one up.
Huff has some interest because of his every other year track record of good seasons, and Hesisey is interesting, but that OBP is brutal. I have been looking at Revere, who has zero power of course, but given his MiL BA track record, and performance at 23 last year, could be very close to having Gardner/Bourne type value with an uptick in BA.
What do you think of the two trades, and of either v. standing pat for now, and what are your thoughts on the available OF
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2012
Bill – Impossible to rule on deals with “unknown” player in them.
Harnahan/Kipnis for Zobrist is fine by me. At the same time, I’m not a huge fan of Farnsworth, so yo might be leaving yourself thin there.
Revere is a strong add for steals… he’ll produce a ton of value, though of course no power.
Huff – every other year thing is true, but has no basis in reality in terms of explaining it. Just random.